Steel Industry - The demand recovery in the steel sector post-holiday is expected to take time, with attention on the impact of self-imposed emission reductions by steel companies during the "Two Sessions" and related "anti-involution" policies [1][16] - In February 2026, the national steel industry PMI index was 45.4, indicating ongoing operational pressure, with a significant drop in output index to 44.1 and new order index to 39.5, reflecting weak supply and demand [16][19] - The total steel inventory increased by 43.19% to 18.26 million tons by February 27, 2026, indicating accumulated inventory pressure [27] Copper Industry - Domestic downstream enterprises are gradually resuming operations, but market demand remains limited, with high prices suppressing demand [1][36] - In December 2025, domestic refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.76%, while copper material production was 2.229 million tons, a decrease of 1.94% [36] - LME copper inventory increased by 44.99% to 253,700 tons, and SHFE copper inventory rose by 85.27% to 290,600 tons during the period from January 30 to February 27, 2026 [36][38] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector faced weak supply and demand in February, with a significant increase in domestic inventory and weak prices for electrolytic aluminum [1][43] - Domestic alumina production in December 2025 was 8.011 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.70%, while electrolytic aluminum production was 3.874 million tons, an increase of 2.87% [44] - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 6.09% to 465,600 tons, while SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 99.42% to 289,300 tons during the same period [44][46] Precious Metals - Gold prices initially dropped due to expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies but later rebounded due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies [1][52] - From January 30 to February 27, 2026, COMEX gold prices increased by 7.92% to $5,296.40 per ounce, while SHFE gold prices decreased by 1.16% to ¥1,147.90 per gram [52] Lithium Industry - The lithium sector is expected to see optimistic demand in March, with supply likely to remain tight, supporting high carbonate lithium prices [2][54] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 8.83% to ¥172,500 per ton during the period from January 30 to February 27, 2026 [54][55] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Rare earth prices have risen due to tight supply and strong holding sentiment among sellers, with the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 18.90% to ¥890,000 per ton [2][71] - The price of tungsten concentrate increased by 31.00% to ¥786,000 per ton during the same period [77]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Night trading of precious metals continued to decline. Geopolitical risks have risen sharply, increasing the demand for gold as a traditional safe - haven asset. However, due to the strengthening of the US dollar index and profit - taking by funds, precious metals have corrected. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise. If the passage of the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it may lead to a significant increase in oil prices, raising inflation expectations for resource products and potentially exacerbating the "stagflation" risk in the US, which strengthens the anti - inflation property of gold. Also, although the US dollar index has strengthened in the short - term due to increased global uncertainty, market concerns about the US fiscal sustainability are intensifying. With the reconstruction of the global political and economic order and the diversification of central bank reserve assets, the de - dollarization process is advancing. Therefore, considering multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, anti - inflation demand, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Silver, platinum, and palladium, belonging to the precious metals sector, will also benefit from increased risk - aversion sentiment and strengthened inflation expectations, and will follow the overall sector's upward trend with relatively larger fluctuations compared to gold [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - For gold futures (沪金 2606 and 沪金 2604): The closing prices yesterday were 1185.38 and 1182.000 respectively, down - 1.27% from the previous day; the trading volume was 108780 and 392779 respectively; the open interest was 103769 and 139770 respectively [2]. - For silver futures (沪银 2606 and 沪银 2604): The closing prices yesterday were 21415 and 21645 respectively, down - 11.00% and - 11.40% from the previous day; the trading volume was 598151 and 713888 respectively; the open interest was 169820 and 161166 respectively [2]. Spot Market - For gold spot: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D yesterday was 1181.56, down - 1.50% from the previous day; the price of London gold was 5088.52 dollars per troy ounce, down - 4.38% from the previous day [2]. - For silver spot: The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D yesterday was 21427, down - 10.54% from the previous day; the price of London silver was 82.01 dollars per troy ounce, down - 8.12% from the previous day [2]. Inventory - Gold inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (in kilograms, daily) remained unchanged at 105,060; silver inventory decreased by 1952 kilograms to 307,484 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 99538 troy ounces to 33,071,598 troy ounces; COMEX silver inventory decreased by 2391537 troy ounces to 355,173,837 troy ounces [2]. Relevant Derivatives - The US dollar index rose 0.72 to 99.27; the S&P 500 index fell 64.99 to 6,816.63; the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds increased by 0.01% to 4.06%; Brent crude oil rose 3.92 to 81.99; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan rose 0.0142 to 6.8997. The position of SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 2.28 tons to 1,099 tons; the position of SLV Silver ETF increased by 79 tons to 15,981 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 738 to 159,177; the net position in silver decreased by 1743 to 22,260 [2]. Macroeconomic News - According to the New York Times, Mojtaba, the son of Khamenei, has become the leading candidate for Iran's supreme leader, but some have reservations [3]. - The deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said the Strait of Hormuz is under full control, and more than a dozen oil tankers were hit by shells [3]. - US President Trump announced that the US will provide political risk insurance and financial security for maritime trade in the Gulf, and the US Navy will escort oil tankers if necessary. Brent and WTI crude oil prices dropped more than 2.5 dollars [3]. - Trump said he can tolerate a short - term rise in oil prices to eliminate the threat from Iran, and the war actions against Iran have been successful [3]. - Trump criticized Spain for its lack of cooperation in the attack on Iran and announced the cut - off of all trade with Spain [3]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rates due to the Iran issue. Kashkari is uncertain about the rate cut in 2026; Williams believes the Fed should consider spillover effects; Schmid focuses on curbing inflation [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the market trading narrative shifts from geopolitical risks to inflation risks and economic recession concerns. Due to high uncertainty in the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited, and they are expected to maintain high volatility. Long - term, the underlying logic for the precious metal bull market is solid. With the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainty, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand from global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 3.1 Price Data - On March 3, 2026, London gold spot was at $5306.69/oz, London silver spot was at $85.08/oz, COMEX gold was at $5319.80/oz, and COMEX silver was at $85.12/oz. Compared with March 2, they decreased by 1.5%, 10.4%, 1.5%, and 10.7% respectively. AU2604 was at 1182 yuan/g, and AG2604 was at 21645 yuan/kg, with decreases of 1.3% and 11.4% respectively [3] - The price difference and ratio data also showed significant changes. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference changed from - 3.42 yuan/g on March 2 to - 2.2 yuan/g on March 3, a decrease of 35.7% [3] 3.2 Position Data - As of March 2, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1101.33 tons (unchanged from February 27), and the silver ETF - SLV was 15902.23557 tons, a decrease of 0.56%. COMEX gold and silver non - commercial long and short positions also had different degrees of decline [3] 3.3 Inventory Data - On March 3, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 105060 kg (unchanged from March 2), and SHFE silver inventory was 307484 kg, a decrease of 0.63%. COMEX gold and silver inventories also decreased compared with previous periods [3] 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - On March 3, 2026, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate was 6.91, a decrease of 0.21% compared with March 2. The US dollar index was 98.55, an increase of 0.93% compared with February 27. The 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields also increased, and the VIX index and NYMEX crude oil price also had significant increases [3] 3.5 Market Review - On March 3, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.9% to 1182 yuan/g, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures fell 7.23% to 21405 yuan/kg. In the European and American sessions, precious metal prices further declined. London spot silver once fell more than 10%, and London spot gold once fell more than 4% and broke through the $5100/oz mark. Shanghai gold and silver night sessions also dropped significantly [3] 3.6 Impact Analysis - As the impact of geopolitical conflicts weakens marginally and risk - aversion fades, the continuation of geopolitical conflicts and the fermentation of the Strait of Hormuz issue lead to a continuous sharp rise in energy prices, reigniting market inflation concerns and economic recession concerns, causing a global stock market slump and a liquidity risk, which also affects precious metals. Rising energy prices increase US inflation risks, weakening the Fed's interest rate - cut trading expectations this year. The Fed Chairman nominee's statement on slow - paced balance - sheet reduction boosts the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, suppressing precious metal prices. The reduction of the COMEX silver March short - squeeze risk and the greater impact of economic recession on industrial attributes lead to a larger decline in silver prices [4] 3.7 Future Market Analysis - The short - term market trading focus shifts from geopolitical risks to inflation and economic recession concerns. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited, and they will maintain high volatility. In the long run, the bull - market logic for precious metals remains strong. With possible Fed interest rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainty, and the US debt promoting de - dollarization, the allocation demand for precious metals from global entities will continue, and long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. As of March 3, 2026, platinum and palladium have fallen 21.4% and 19.7% respectively from their January highs, and have also significantly retraced from their February 24 repair highs. The main short - term disturbance is Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Although Warsh's policy stance is dovish but not as expected, the short - term strengthening of the US dollar after the nomination announcement has dragged down platinum and palladium. In the long run, the judicial investigation of Powell shakes the US dollar's credit, the global central bank gold - buying wave continues, and the geopolitical risks in Greenland provide support. In the industrial sector, platinum has a clear supply - demand gap, and palladium has a rigid supply and strong demand [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 570.30, 563.70, and 562.05 respectively, with price drops of - 52.55, - 52.25, and - 49.05 and percentage drops of - 8.44%, - 8.48%, and - 8.03%. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 433.90, 432.15, and 430.95 respectively, with price drops of - 28.50, - 24.15, and - 25.00 and percentage drops of - 6.16%, - 5.29%, and - 5.48% [1] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of platinum futures are all 12803, and the volumes are 17121, 498, and 199 respectively. The positions of palladium futures are all 4456, and the volumes are 4938, 74, and 45 respectively [1] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums for platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610) are 0.6, 7.2, and 8.85 respectively, and for palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610) are 5.1, 6.85, and 8.05 respectively [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: For platinum spot, the Shanghai platinum price dropped from 570.90 to 535.45, a decrease of - 35.45 with a percentage drop of - 0.058%. The London platinum price dropped from 2114.00 to 1899.00, a decrease of - 215.00 with a percentage drop of - 0.092%. For palladium spot, the Chinese palladium price dropped from 439.00 to 433.00, a decrease of - 6.00 with a percentage drop of - 0.013% [1] - **Price Ratios**: The current platinum - to - palladium ratio is 1.30 (previously 5.91), the Shanghai platinum - to - London platinum ratio is 1.17 (previously 0.71) [1] 3.3 Inventory - **Platinum**: The current NYMEX platinum inventory is 587,158.53 ounces, a decrease of - 907.4 ounces compared to the previous value. The gold exchange turnover is 3,645.36 million yuan, a decrease of - 1630.5 million yuan, and the trading volume is 62.00 kilograms, a decrease of - 24.0 kilograms [1] - **Palladium**: The NYMEX palladium inventory remains unchanged at 202,180.58 ounces, and the registered warehouse receipts also remain unchanged at 164,229.68 ounces [1] 3.4 Related Derivatives and Indicators - **Related Indicators**: The current US dollar index is 99.06, an increase of 0.51 compared to the previous value. The S&P 500 index is 6,816.63, a decrease of - 64.99. The US Treasury yield is 4.06, an increase of 0.01 [1] - **Related Derivatives**: For Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 1182.00, 1185.38, and 1187.78 respectively, with decreases of - 15.22, - 15.22, and - 16.02. For Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 21645.00, 21415.00, and 21377.00 respectively, with decreases of - 2786, - 2646, and - 2607 [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **Geopolitical Events**: The military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - **Fed Personnel Changes**: Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. However, some senators oppose the nomination. The Fed has kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% [2] - **Chinese Central Bank Policy**: The People's Bank of China has held a payment and settlement work meeting, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the bond market, it is expected to face certain pressure, and caution is advised [5][6]. - For the stock index market, the volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and long positions can be held [9][10]. - For the precious metals market, market volatility is expected to significantly increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [12][13][14]. - For the steel products market, investors can pay attention to low - level long - buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [15][17][20]. - For the energy market, the crude oil main contract is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities [24][25][26]. - For the chemical products market, polyolefins and some chemical products are expected to be bullish, and investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [27][38][39]. - For the agricultural products market, different products have different trends. For example, cotton is expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, while sugar is recommended for a wait - and - see approach [73][74][77][78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.09% to 112.770 yuan, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01% to 108.500 yuan, the 5 - year main contract remained flat at 106.065 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% to 102.470 yuan [5]. - **Open Market Operations**: On March 3, the central bank conducted 34.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate. With 526 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 491.7 billion yuan [5]. - **Outlook**: The current macro - data is stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond yield is at a relatively low level. The Chinese economy shows a steady recovery trend, core inflation continues to rise, and there is room for domestic demand policies to take effect. The global economic and financial situation is stable, and the global financial market risk appetite is high. It is expected that there will still be some pressure in the future, and caution should be maintained [5]. 3.2 Stock Index - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract fell 1.29%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.83%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract fell 4.24%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract fell 3.57% [7]. - **New Account Data**: In February 2026, there were 2.523 million new A - share accounts opened, a 49% month - on - month decrease and an 11% year - on - year decrease. There were 239,700 new fund accounts opened, a significant decline from 546,300 in January. In February, there were 117,000 new margin trading accounts opened, a 20% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and there is room for valuation repair. The Chinese economy has sufficient resilience, core inflation continues to rise, and the policy environment is favorable. Market sentiment is rising, and incremental funds are continuously entering the market. The global financial market risk appetite is high, and it is expected that overseas macro - disturbances will have limited impact. The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and long positions can be held [9][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,182 with a decline of 1.27%, and the silver main contract closed at 21,645 with a decline of 11.40% [11]. - **Geopolitical and Economic News**: Trump submitted a notice to Congress regarding the military action against Iran on February 28. The eurozone's February CPI and core CPI data showed an increase [11]. - **Outlook**: The current global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The medium - to - long - term logic of precious metals remains strong. The global economic and financial situation is generally stable, and geopolitical factors such as the Iran situation are expected to have limited impact. The previous sharp rise in precious metals has been fully priced in the market, and there is currently no significant fundamental driver. It is expected that market volatility will significantly increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [12][13][14]. 3.4 Steel Products (including螺纹, 热卷, 铁矿石, 焦煤焦炭, 铁合金) - **螺纹 and 热卷** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,910 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3,070 - 3,190 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was between 3,220 - 3,240 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The real estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and rebar demand is in a year - on - year decline. The market is in the off - season of demand. On the supply side, the over - capacity situation remains unchanged, the weekly output of rebar is at a low level, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. The inventory increase during the Spring Festival was the lowest in recent years [15]. - **Outlook**: Rebar prices still lack bullish drivers but are at a low valuation. The fundamental logic of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar, and their trends may be consistent. Technically, steel futures may continue to be weak in the short term. Investors can pay attention to low - level long - buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [15][16]. - **铁矿石** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The port spot price of PB powder was 752 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 640 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of molten iron in the country has rebounded month - on - month, but steel mills may limit production during key meetings, which will suppress iron ore demand. In 2025, iron ore imports increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and domestic raw ore production was lower than the same period in 2024. Iron ore port inventories continued to rise and were at the highest level in the same period in the past five years [17]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is weak. Technically, iron ore futures may test the support near the previous low again. Investors can pay attention to low - level long - buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [17][18][19]. - **焦煤焦炭** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to rebound [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The conflict between the US and Iran has a limited impact on the domestic coking coal and coke supply - demand pattern. For coking coal, the main coal - producing areas have basically resumed production, and the supply side is gradually recovering. The demand side is generally weak. For coke, the supply side is stable, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises is not large. The daily output of molten iron in the country has rebounded month - on - month, but steel mills may limit production during key meetings, which will put pressure on the coke price. There is an expectation of a price cut for coke spot [20]. - **Outlook**: Technically, coking coal and coke futures may continue to oscillate in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [20][21]. - **铁合金** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 1.16% to 6,118 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 1.12% to 5,786 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tianjin manganese - silicon increased by 50 yuan/ton to 5,850 yuan/ton, and the price of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron increased by 20 yuan/ton to 5,350 yuan/ton [22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The shipping volume of manganese ore from Gabon decreased to 107,900 tons in the week of February 27. The supply of Australian ore gradually returned to normal, and the port manganese ore inventory increased by 650,000 tons to 4.95 million tons. The main - producing area electricity price and the prices of coke and semi - coke were stable. The cost of ferroalloys fluctuated slightly at a low level. The output of rebar by sample building material steel mills in the week of February 27 was 1.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons month - on - month. The output of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron increased by 3,600 tons and 600 tons respectively compared with the previous week. The weekly output was at a relatively low level in the past five years, and the short - term over - supply situation was slightly alleviated, but the supply surplus still led to inventory accumulation [22][23]. - **Outlook**: The current cost has limited downward space at a low level, and the support at the low - level range is gradually strengthening. Since 2026, the output of ferroalloys has remained at a low level, and the demand is weak, and the overall over - supply pressure continues. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [23]. 3.5 Energy (including原油) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil closed at the daily limit again due to the ongoing Middle East war [24]. - **Market News and Data**: Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased. The US and Israel launched a large - scale joint military strike against Iran, and the Middle East situation has escalated. OPEC+ agreed in principle to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April [24]. - **Outlook**: The increase in CFTC net long positions indicates that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. OPEC's production increase is less than expected and cannot fill the gap left by Iranian crude oil. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran shows signs of escalation, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz supports oil prices. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities in the crude oil main contract [24][25][26]. 3.6 Chemical Products (including聚烯烃, 合成橡胶, 天然橡胶, PVC, 尿素, 对二甲苯PX, PTA, 乙二醇, 短纤, 瓶片, 纯碱, 玻璃, 烧碱, 纸浆) - **聚烯烃** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market reported a rapid price increase. The geopolitical risk and the increase in international oil prices led to a high - level speculation atmosphere in the market. The拉丝 mainstream price was between 6,950 - 7,200 yuan/ton. The price of LLDPE in the Yuyao market increased by 200 - 400 yuan/ton [27]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, affected by macro - policies, the increase in crude oil prices provides strong cost support for PE and PP. Although the production enterprise maintenance has decreased after the holiday, downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. Driven by the macro - sentiment, the mentality of industry players has improved. It is expected that the polyolefin market price will be bullish in the short term. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [27]. - **合成橡胶** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 3.64%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was adjusted up to 13,800 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [28]. - **Supply and Demand**: Affected by the conflict, the synthetic rubber price may rise in the short term. In the medium term, it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and the post - holiday demand recovery. On the raw material side, butadiene may rise driven by crude oil this week, and the price is significantly affected by cost. On the supply side, most butadiene rubber plants maintained high - load operation this week, and only the load of an individual butadiene rubber plant in Shandong decreased slightly. In addition, the butadiene rubber plants of Haopu New Materials and Zhejiang Chuanhua are expected to be overhauled in March. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises recovered slightly at a low level. On the inventory side, as of February 25, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 53,500 tons, a significant increase of 19,600 tons compared with before the Spring Festival, a month - on - month increase of 57.68% [28]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be bullish and oscillating [29]. - **天然橡胶** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 1.55%, the 20 - rubber main contract fell 1.75%, and the Shanghai spot price was adjusted down to around 16,100 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply and Demand**: The weekend conflict may drive the short - term rise of natural rubber through the transmission from crude oil to synthetic rubber. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and the fundamentals of natural rubber, especially the inventory situation from March to April. On the supply side, the global main - producing areas have entered the seasonal low - production period, and the output is in short supply, and the raw material price continues to strengthen. On the demand side, enterprises have resumed work as planned after the holiday, and the tire capacity utilization rate is in the recovery stage. On the inventory side, the domestic natural rubber inventory continued the pre - holiday inventory accumulation trend, and the inventory accumulation was mainly concentrated in Qingdao [31]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be bullish and oscillating [32]. - **PVC** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 2.49%, the spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the basis remained basically stable [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas geopolitical risk has brought supply concerns, which conflict with the domestic seasonal demand off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory trend. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of PVC plants increased by 0.01% this week, and the PVC output increased by 0.01% month - on - month. On the demand side, as of February 26, 2026, the start - up rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises was 13.60%, a month - on - month increase. On the cost - profit side, the supply of US dollar - denominated ethylene is insufficient, which has an obvious supporting effect on the US dollar market. For calcium carbide, the demand support is unstable, and the sentiment of expecting a price decline in calcium carbide is strong, and the short - term market is difficult to improve. The inventory of the PVC industry increased significantly this period. The inventory of the PVC industry (upstream + social) increased by 1.72% month - on - month, and the factory inventory and social inventory increased simultaneously this week [33][34]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be bullish and oscillating [35]. - **尿素** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell 0.38%, and the price in Linyi, Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: The conflict in Iran has a direct impact on the urea market supply. As the world's second - largest exporter, Iran has shut down many factories due to the conflict, and Egypt has also stopped production, resulting in a hard gap in global production capacity. This has led to a possible sharp increase in international fertilizer prices within a week, and the gap cannot be quickly filled. For China, although the domestic supply and demand are stable, large buyers such as India and Brazil will be forced to turn to China for emergency procurement, opening an export arbitrage window for Chinese enterprises. However, it is currently the spring plowing season, and there is no export for the purpose of stable production and supply. In the short term, it may be bullish and oscillating. The biggest risk point in the future lies in the shipping safety of the Strait of Hormuz. If it

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships. Geopolitical tensions, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the prices of commodities like precious metals, energy, and some chemicals. Central bank policies, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, also influence market expectations. Supply - demand imbalances in different industries drive price trends, with some industries facing supply shortages or excess, and demand either growing or remaining weak [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London Gold fell 4.39% to $5087 per ounce, and the international silver price denominated in London Silver dropped 8.18% to $81.98 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Tensions in the Middle East, changes in Fed interest - rate cut expectations, and inventory changes in different regions and ETFs. For example, domestic gold inflow was 2.1 tons, and some inventories decreased, while India's silver import demand continued to improve [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and reduce long positions in silver and wait and see [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations due to rising oil prices, supply - side copper ore shortage but high refined copper production, and weak demand in the off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 2.29% to 23905 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: High - load production on the supply side and a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate strongly due to geopolitical conflicts and improving downstream demand [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.23% to 2807 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in operating capacity on the supply side and high - load production of electrolytic aluminum plants on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate strongly in the short term, but new production capacity may suppress the price in the future [2][3]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 3, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24370 yuan/ton and 16840 yuan/ton respectively, with price drops [3]. - **Fundamentals**: For zinc, large accumulation of social inventory, slow resumption of downstream enterprises, but low overseas LME inventory provides some support; for lead, increasing social inventory, some refineries delaying resumption due to high costs, and weak spot trading [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hedge zinc at high prices and trade lead within a range [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.20% from the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of open furnaces on the supply side, slight inventory accumulation, and recovery in demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon and organic silicon [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate between 8200 - 8600 yuan. Consider short - selling lightly at high prices if the large - scale production cut is short - lived [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 150,860 yuan/ton, with a limit - down [3]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate, an increase in production, and changes in demand and inventory. For example, SMM expects a 8.7% increase in March production compared to January [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate with high volatility around 140,000 - 150,000 yuan in the short term. Wait and see the new - energy vehicle consumption in March to judge the future price trend [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 43700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74% from the previous trading day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable weekly production, an increase in industry inventory, and a recovery in downstream production scheduling [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly between 43000 - 53000 yuan in the short term [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices dropped significantly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations and a tight supply of tin ore, with active trading at lower prices [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a buying opportunity after the implied volatility decreases [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3067 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Seasonal inventory accumulation, a significant difference in supply - demand between building materials and hot - rolled coils, and relatively low rebar futures valuation [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in rebar and wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 yuan [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 746.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, a decrease in arrivals, and low port inventory [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 730 - 760 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1117 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in molten iron production, the implementation of the first round of coke price increase, and high - level port clearance [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in coking coal and wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1090 - 1150 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: A丰产 expectation in South America, strong US soybean crushing and export expectations [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to US soybean exports and South American production realization. The domestic market may oscillate strongly in the short term but lacks upward momentum in the medium term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fell, while spot prices continued to rise [6]. - **Fundamentals**: More than 60% of grain sales completed, low port and downstream inventory, and losses in downstream industries [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate strongly due to limited supply and downstream restocking [6]. Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, driven by the increase in crude oil prices [6]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in February production and exports in Malaysia, and an expected decrease in end - February inventory [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The edible oil market is in a weak cycle but may rebound in the short term due to rising crude oil prices. Pay attention to crude oil prices and production in the producing areas [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices continued to fall, while Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Smooth cotton sowing in Brazil, stable domestic cotton prices, and an increase in cotton yarn prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices. The reference price range is 15000 - 15600 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices slightly decreased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: It is the traditional off - season for egg demand, and supply is sufficient [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices were weak, and spot prices continued to fall [6]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of pigs for slaughter after the Spring Festival and a seasonal off - season for demand [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate weakly [6]. Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract continued to rise significantly. The basis strengthened, and market trading was good [7]. - **Fundamentals**: No new device production in the first half of the year, a slowdown in domestic supply pressure, and an improvement in downstream demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window. Short at high prices in the medium term [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract closed at 4939 yuan/ton, up 2.4% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by rising oil prices, high social inventory, and weak demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to balanced supply and weak demand and low valuation [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PXCFR China price was $1019/ton, and PTA East China spot price was 5525 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: High - level supply of PX, restart of some PTA devices, and PTA inventory accumulation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Keep waiting and see in the PTA inventory - accumulation pattern [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg05 contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in supply, weak demand, and high inventory [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract continued to rise significantly. The basis strengthened, and market trading was good [8]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in new device production in the short term, a reduction in supply pressure, and an improvement in downstream demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window. Short at high prices in the medium term [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG was 3894 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Potential supply shortages due to geopolitical conflicts, and expected inventory reduction in March [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: SC crude oil had three consecutive daily limit - up, and the delivery cost had a high premium compared to Brent [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, may affect the supply of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in trading through options to control risks [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract continued to rise significantly. The market trading atmosphere was good [9]. - **Fundamentals**: An improvement in the pure - benzene supply - demand pattern, inventory reduction of styrene, and an improvement in downstream start - up rate but increased losses [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, following the cost (crude oil) fluctuations. Go long on styrene at low prices in the second quarter [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract closed at 1219 yuan/ton, up 2.2% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Rising prices due to increased overseas costs, large supply, and inventory accumulation [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to increased supply and weak demand and low valuation [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing surge in oil prices and the strong performance of oil and gas-related funds, while also noting a significant pullback in military, silver, and gold funds, indicating a mixed sentiment in the resource sector [1][3][4]. Oil and Gas Sector Performance - Multiple oil and gas ETFs, including those from 嘉实, 银华, 富国, 博时, and 汇添富, have hit the daily limit up, reflecting a robust market sentiment [1][4]. - As of March 3, the WTI crude oil price increased by 5.02% to $74.803 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 5.03% to $81.653 per barrel [2]. - Year-to-date, several oil and gas ETFs have recorded gains exceeding 40%, with some surpassing 60% [4][5]. Fund Performance and Market Trends - The article provides a detailed table of various funds, showing significant daily and year-to-date returns for oil-related funds, with some funds like 原油LOF易方达 and 石油基金LOF achieving daily increases of around 10% [2][6]. - Conversely, military and precious metal funds experienced notable declines, with silver funds dropping over 8% and military funds falling by approximately 6% [3][5]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The article notes a divergence in resource fund performance, with oil and gas funds continuing to rise while other sectors like military and precious metals face corrections [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that while the resource sector remains promising, there is a need for caution regarding short-term trading risks, emphasizing a return to fundamental analysis for investment decisions [8][10]. - The geopolitical landscape, particularly tensions involving Iran, is influencing oil prices and market dynamics, with potential implications for supply chains and inflation [9][11]. Strategic Insights - Investment strategies are shifting towards a focus on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term market movements, with an emphasis on cost analysis and sector rotation within the resource space [10]. - The article suggests that the demand structure is transitioning from real estate-driven to manufacturing-driven, particularly in technology and industrial sectors, which may present new investment opportunities [10].

2 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 课题章》（3）后市分析：综上、预计短期避险或可继续支撑贵金属价格；中期需关注地缘局势进展和油价变化，价格仍有反复可能，但长期来看，贵金属牛市的底层逻辑 仍旧竖昌，在美联储年内仍有降息概率、全球地缘不确定性持续和美国巨额债务将不断推进去美元化浪潮等背景下、全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望起球，贵 金属价格重心仍有上行空间，长线策略仍建议以逢低多配为主。 体我告中的意思均源于公开可获得的资料，匿因新货力求准展可靠。但不定上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本帮手不勾成个人投资建议。也未分对个别投资者带放的投资目标、好餐饮服求需要，投资 者需三行判体本报告中的任何意见就是还符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。本报告例向榜定客户的选。未经回贸联股股获评可，任河引用，转载以及向第三方传播的行为构构成定图贸股权规 声明 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 IIC 国贸期货 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/3/3 | | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The short-term uncertainty in energy supply has increased due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil supply, leading to a rise in Brent crude oil prices from $72.9 per barrel on February 27 to $77.7 per barrel on March 2 [1][6] - The cost and risk premium in global shipping have risen as tensions escalate in the Red Sea, with the Suez Canal being a critical trade route that handles over 15% of global goods trade and more than 30% of container traffic [2][7] - The global aviation and tourism industries are experiencing short-term structural impacts, with many flights canceled and airspace closed in the Middle East, affecting travel plans and leading to adjustments in airline and travel agency operations [3][8] Group 2 - Inflation risks in the US and Europe have increased, with uncertainty surrounding monetary policy paths as geopolitical risks from the Middle East lead to rising oil prices and increased supply chain costs [4][9] - Global risk aversion has risen, with precious metals gaining attention as safe-haven assets amid inflation concerns, while the safe-haven function of US Treasuries and the Japanese yen has diminished [5][11] - The focus on "global security deficits" has increased, with geopolitical risks prompting discussions on economic autonomy, trade diversification, and national defense security [6][13] Group 3 - Certain export sectors in China are facing short-term impacts, emphasizing the importance of expanding domestic demand and building a strong domestic market, particularly in machinery and automotive exports to the Middle East [7][14] - The economic resilience of major economies will face objective testing, with the South Korean market showing significant adjustments due to its trade dependency and the impact of a rebounding US dollar on emerging market liquidity [8][15] - External uncertainties are increasing, highlighting the resilience of domestic demand in China as a key factor, with some Chinese assets benefiting from structural pricing advantages amid global narrative shifts [9][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Although prices have rebounded from the lows in late January, they have not fully recovered the previous declines. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair is the core disturbance, with short - term uncertainty in the nomination process and policy independence. Macro factors and industry - side fundamentals support the long - term bullish view [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 626.50, 617.95, and 613.10 respectively, with increases of 12.65, 11.25, and 8.15 and corresponding increases of 2.06%, 1.85%, and 1.35%. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 463.65, 459.15, and 454.45 respectively, with increases of 4.60, 3.65, and 0.85 and corresponding increases of 1.00%, 0.80%, and 0.19% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest for platinum futures is 12,625 for all contracts, and trading volumes are 16,977, 336, and 105 respectively. For palladium futures, the open interest is 4,424 for all contracts, and trading volumes are 5,432, 98, and 14 respectively [1] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums for platinum futures are - 20.15, - 11.6, and - 6.75, and for palladium futures are - 18.65, - 14.15, and - 9.45 [1] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai platinum, London platinum, Chow Tai Fook platinum, and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 606.35 yuan/g, 2329.00 US dollars/ounce, 931.00 yuan/g, and 960.00 yuan/g respectively, with changes of - 3.64, - 37.00, 38.00, and 0.00 and corresponding changes of - 0.006%, - 0.016%, 0.043%, and 0.000%. The previous closing prices of Chinese palladium and Russian palladium are 445.00 yuan/g and 4448.76 rubles/g respectively, with changes of 5.00 and 53.85 and corresponding changes of 0.011% and 0.012% [1] - **Price Ratios**: The current values of platinum/palladium, Shanghai platinum/London platinum, pt2608 - pt2606, pt2610 - pt2606, Chinese palladium/Russian palladium, and pd2608 - pd2606 are 1.36, 1.12, - 8.55, - 13.40, 1.09, and - 4.50 respectively, compared with previous values of - 0.73, 0.42, - 6.95, - 13.10, 1.01, and - 6.35 [1] Inventory - **Platinum**: The current NYMEX inventory is 588,065.94 ounces, an increase of 10,330.4 ounces from the previous value. The NYMEX registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 313,567.94 ounces. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's trading volume is 86.00 kilograms, an increase of 24.00 kilograms, and the trading value is 52.76 million yuan, an increase of 15.80 million yuan [1] - **Palladium**: The current NYMEX inventory is 202,180.58 ounces, an increase of 15,912.00 ounces from the previous value. The NYMEX registered warehouse receipts also increase by 15,912.00 ounces to 164,229.68 ounces [1] Related Derivatives and Macroeconomic Indicators - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.55, 6,881.62, 4.05, 22,748.86, 48,904.78, and 6.92 respectively, with changes of 0.90, 2.74, 0.08, 80.65, - 73.14, and 0.00 compared with the previous values [1] - **Related Derivatives**: The current values of Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 1,197.22, 1,200.60, and 1,203.80 respectively, with increases of 49.32, 49.26, and 49.52. The current values of Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 24,431.00, 24,061.00, and 23,984.00 respectively, with increases of 1,412, 1,286, and 1,248 [1] Macroeconomic News - **Geopolitical**: The military strike by the US and Israel against Iran has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - **Fed Personnel**: US President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but the nomination faces opposition in the Senate. Warsh's policy stance is dovish but less than expected, and the process and policy independence are uncertain [2][4] - **Monetary Policy**: The Fed maintains the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts, in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut, consistent with Trump's nominee Milan [2] - **China's Central Bank**: The People's Bank of China has held a payment and settlement work meeting, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening regulatory measures [3]