Group 1 - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 14 will be released shortly [1] - The total number of new housing starts for May, on an annualized basis, will also be announced [1] - The total number of building permits for May is set to be published soon [1]

6月2日，美国华盛顿特区，杰罗姆·鲍威尔出席美联储成立75周年大会。图片来源：AL DRAGO—BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES 随着美联储（Federal Reserve）官员释放出维持利率不变的长期信号，投资者和经济学家本周将密切关注美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，希望从他身 上找到一些蛛丝马迹，判断可能最终促使央行采取行动的因素以及行动时机。 美联储连续四次会议维持利率不变，可能再次招致唐纳德·特朗普总统的猛烈抨击。但政策制定者们已明确表示：在采取行动之前，他们需要白宫 解决关税、移民和税收等重大问题。以色列对伊朗核设施的袭击也给全球经济带来了另一个不确定因素。 与此同时，美国经济总体健康，或许正在缓慢降温，几乎没有人预期近期会有利率变动。根据期货合约定价，投资者押注美联储最早也要到9月份 才会下调借贷成本。 信安资产管理公司（Principal Asset Management）首席全球策略师西玛·沙阿表示："在当前没有降息紧迫性的情况下，最稳妥的做法就是按兵不 动。" 尽管如此，美联储官员可能仍需等待未来数月的数据，以了解有多少关税成本转嫁给了消费者。以色列对伊朗的空袭将带来更多疑问。 ...

智通财经6月18日电，国家统计局发布5月份分年龄组失业率数据。5月份，全国城镇不包含在校生的16- 24岁劳动力失业率为14.9%，不包含在校生的25-29岁劳动力失业率为7.0%，不包含在校生的30-59岁劳 动力失业率为3.0%。 国家统计局发布5月份分年龄组失业率数据 ...

瑞典央行：瑞典失业率仍然居高不下。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% during the June meeting, marking the fourth consecutive time it has held rates steady. However, uncertainties regarding the policy path for the second half of the year are significant, making the upcoming "dot plot" and economic outlook from the Fed crucial for market reactions [1][4][5]. Interest Rate Projections - Market expectations indicate that the Fed may lower rates twice in 2025, with a potential first cut in September or October [1][2]. - The "dot plot" is anticipated to be more significant than the decision itself, with analysts focusing on whether it will signal only one rate cut instead of two for 2025 [1][8]. Economic Forecast Adjustments - Analysts predict that the Fed will lower its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9%, down from 1.7% previously, while raising the core PCE inflation forecast to 3.3% from 2.8% [7]. - The unemployment rate forecast is also expected to rise to 4.5%, compared to the previous estimate of 4.4% [7]. Inflation and Economic Data - Recent geopolitical tensions have increased oil prices, potentially impacting inflation expectations, but analysts believe this will have limited effect on the Fed's June meeting [4]. - The core PCE inflation rate, which has decreased from a peak of 5.6% in 2022 to 2.5%, is projected to rebound to 3.4% by year-end [5]. Market Reactions and Predictions - If the "dot plot" indicates only one rate cut, it may lead to significant market volatility, potentially strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on gold and other assets [10][11]. - The market has largely ignored the resilience of U.S. economic data, focusing instead on potential downside risks, which may affect the dollar's performance in the context of global "de-dollarization" [11].

今天六月十八日，周三，各位早！ A、关于风险： 周四凌晨的利率决议要来了； 黄金十字星收线，看来支撑区间有用； 原油走了几个V，中东持续发挥影响； 国内金上，778作用不小，该受冲击了。 B、关于行情： 隔夜，黄金报收螺旋桨小阳烛体。参与上，提示3395—3401一带阻力；72初步支撑。 日线上的收线就很微妙了，实体完全守在3386之上，随它影线怎么刺，阴包阳都没有延续。还是老样子，作为相对高位的震荡，确实行情在吸筹 的这条路上走的挺顺。但同时，布林带三轨仍然是向上齐头运行，故而在今明两天，主要考虑布林带中轨撑住之后，进一步的反弹能看向哪里。 原油方面，隔夜报收大阳烛体。参与上，提示布林带中轨支撑。 好的，最近的原油才是真的妖。V地太快了一点，整体的节奏受中东影响是守着相对高位震荡。但是，也没有所谓的破位延续情况的，毕竟基本 面是近期的关键。所以原则上，可以看一下前高的得失。 短线上呢，基本是形成了顶背离的，若日内死叉出现，则关注73.7—72.3的关键得失。其他的若想向下看，则至少四小时的布林带中轨下破之后再 说吧。 国内方面，778这一带看似也不错呢。但是今晚关注点要扩大至顶底转换的761的得失，上方无所 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the dual challenges and opportunities presented by the impact of artificial intelligence on employment and productivity, advocating for proactive capability building and institutional innovation to address these issues [1] Structural Employment Contradictions - The main contradiction in China's employment has shifted from total and cyclical issues to structural ones, necessitating adjustments in policy concepts, orientations, tools, and practices [1] - The natural unemployment rate in urban areas was estimated at approximately 5.05% before the COVID-19 pandemic, but the actual urban survey unemployment rate has frequently exceeded this level post-pandemic, indicating a higher natural unemployment rate [2] - Both urban unemployment rates and job vacancy rates have increased simultaneously, with the urban survey unemployment rate rising from 5.00% to 5.14% and the job-seeker ratio increasing from 1.04 to 1.37 between 2008-2016 and 2016-2024 [3] - The informalization of urban employment is evident, with private and non-unit employment rising from 53.0% in 2013 to 65.2% in 2023, and approximately 200 million people engaged in flexible employment in 2023 [4] - Labor mobility between urban and rural areas has become increasingly inward, with a slowdown in the transfer of agricultural labor to non-agricultural sectors, negatively impacting productivity [5] Causes of Structural Employment Contradictions - Structural employment contradictions are primarily driven by technological advancements leading to automation, which often results in job displacement [6] - Population factors, particularly aging, have contributed to a shortage of middle-aged workers, leading to increased automation in sectors where they were predominantly employed [7][8] - Institutional barriers, such as the household registration system, hinder effective labor market matching, with a significant proportion of the labor force being non-local residents [8] Addressing Structural Employment Contradictions - To tackle structural employment contradictions, there is a need for enhanced human capital development and a robust social protection system [9] - Emphasis on improving education and skill training to meet the demands of the AI era is crucial, with suggestions for extending compulsory education and establishing a lifelong learning system [9] - The social protection system should be improved to ensure equitable support for workers facing job displacement, with recommendations for increasing benefit levels and expanding public services [10] - Macroeconomic policy tools need to shift focus from aggregate measures to individual and structural aspects, enhancing coordination among government departments to improve labor market outcomes [11]

智通财经APP获悉，美联储官员普遍预计将在美东时间周三举行的利率决议上，连续第四次会议维持利 率不变，并重申在调整借贷成本前，需更清晰了解一系列政府政策调整对经济的影响。政策制定者此前 曾警告称，唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税可能推高通胀与失业率，但迄今为止，稳健的就业增长与通胀降 温让美联储官员今年得以维持利率不变。 德意志银行高级美国经济学家布雷特·瑞安表示："观望策略此前成效显著。如今既无迫切调整理由，通 胀前景仍存上行风险，为何要偏离这一策略?" 鉴于经济前景充满不确定性，投资者与经济学家将密切关注政策制定者更新的经济与利率预测。官员们 可能继续如多数预测所示，在今年计入两次降息，但部分经济学家称，"点阵图"可能仅显示一次降息。 美联储利率决议将于美东时间周三下午2点公布，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在此后30分钟后召开新闻发布 会。 政策声明要点 预计官员们会将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.5%区间，且对5月6-7日会议后的声明仅做细微调整。鉴于5月 会议以来贸易紧张局势(尤其是中美贸易)有所缓和，政策制定者可能微调关于经济前景不确定性的表 述。 瑞安及其团队在客户报告中指出，官员们可能不再称不确定性"进一步加剧 ...

债王 Gundlach 最新观点 Doubleline 债王 Gundlach 认为我们正在经历 Regime change:：一切在过去 40 年里"长期利 率终会下降"的常识，皆无法映射到今天的经济关系中。美国来到了危险的崩溃边缘。失业 率即将上升，通胀即将走高，赤字和债务都在新高。 （图 1）利率：2 年美债通常领先基准利率，但 2022 年以来，市场总是过于乐观预期降息。 但如今联储"we don't know anything yet"，基于去年四季度的低基数，联储会有困难。 （图 2）美债：30 年期美债正在经历 1976 年至今最大且最长的回撤，价格已经腰斩，且反 弹时间未知。尽管所有评级的债券利差基本回到了年初水平，但无法掩盖它们经历了一次 巨大的波动往返。 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9 ...

2025/6/17 13:17 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA 6 15 4% USDA 66% 20250617 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕6月前15日产量减少4% USDA 美豆优良率为66%低于市场预期 20250617 2025年06月17日 07:32 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 4086. 00 | 4. 48 | -0. 41 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 72. 50 | -3.56 | 1. 47 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 71. 48 | -2. 32 | 1.88 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1070.00 | 0. 14 | 0. 33 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 283. 80 | -2.57 | -0. 70 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 55. 11 | 8.89 | 2.57 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美 ...