Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for July, along with average hourly wage growth on a monthly and yearly basis, are set to be released shortly [1]

北京时间20:30，重磅非农登场！市场普遍预计7月就业增长将放缓，美联储当下更重视的失业率料微 升。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the anticipation surrounding the upcoming non-farm payroll (NFP) report, which is expected to show a slowdown in job growth for July [1] - The market is concerned about a potential slight increase in the unemployment rate, which is currently a key focus for the Federal Reserve [1] - The article suggests that the hawkish comments from Jerome Powell have created volatility in the market, making the NFP report a critical event that could either stabilize or further disrupt market conditions [1]

4. 汇丰银行：+4.2%；荷兰国际：+4.2%；摩根大通：+4.2%；杰富瑞集团：+4.2%；劳埃德银行： +4.2%； 5. 瑞穗银行：+4.2%；Monex集团：+4.2%；穆迪分析：+4.2%；摩根士丹利：+4.2%；野村证券： +4.2%； 金十整理：机构预期今晚20:30公布的美国7月失业率（前值：+4.1%） 1. 丰业银行：+4.0%；法巴银行：+4.1%；贝伦贝格：+4.1%；凯投宏观：+4.1%；加皇银行：+4.1%； 2. 荷兰银行：+4.2%；澳新银行：+4.2%；巴克莱银行：+4.2%；美国银行：+4.2%；帝商银行： +4.2%； 8. 富国银行：+4.2%；西太银行：+4.2%；丹斯克银行：+4.2%；大和资本：+4.3%。[路透预期：+4.2%] 3. 花旗集团：+4.2%；联信银行：+4.2%；德商银行：+4.2%；高盛集团：+4.2%；赫莱巴银行： +4.2%； 6. 牛津经济：+4.2%；潘森宏观：+4.2%；三井住友：+4.2%；桑坦德银行：+4.2%；渣打银行： +4.2%； 7. 斯蒂费尔：+4.2%；道明证券：+4.2%；瑞银集团：+4.2%；裕信银行：+4.2% ...

Group 1 - The resilient U.S. labor market is now the primary determinant of monetary policy, indicating that strong employment data in July could eliminate expectations for a rate cut in September and reduce the likelihood of further easing this year [1] - Powell emphasized that the next steps for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will depend on overall economic data, acknowledging reasons for easing but highlighting the importance of the unemployment rate [1][2] - The unemployment rate has remained stable between 4.0% and 4.2% for over a year, suggesting the economy is at full employment, making it difficult to justify a rate cut [2] Group 2 - Following the FOMC decision, market reactions included a drop in U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a strengthening dollar, reflecting investors' interpretation of Powell's signals [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now seen as a coin toss, indicating a shift in market expectations towards only one rate cut this year [2] - Powell's comments on inflation, with core CPI at 2.9% and core PCE at 2.8%, support a moderate tightening stance [2] Group 3 - Price risks remain due to the delayed effects of tariffs, with Powell suggesting that if tariffs continue to push prices higher, the Fed may need to wait until the impact subsides before easing, potentially delaying any rate cuts until next year [3] - Market expectations for rate cuts have significantly decreased, with projections dropping from over 130 basis points to around 35 basis points for the year [3][4] Group 4 - The futures curve indicates that by May next year, when Powell's term ends, only 65 basis points of rate cuts are priced in [4] - While it is unlikely that there will be no rate cuts during Powell's remaining term, it is not impossible [5]

分析：要让美联储降息，失业率得上升才行 金十数据8月1日讯，据外媒分析报道，鲍威尔本周多次对记者表示，他认为目前衡量经济健康状况的最 佳指标是失业率。他指出，6月份的失业率为4.1%，在过去一年里几乎没有变化，而通胀率则离美联储 的目标更远了一些。因此，他表示，大多数决策者认为这一情况说明没有理由调整利率。与此同时，鲍 威尔拒绝预先承诺9月降息，而周四的通胀数据又高于预期，给何时恢复降息的前景蒙上了阴影。美国 劳工统计局周五将公布7月份的失业率数据，美联储不太可能在劳动力市场没有恶化的情况下降息，要 让美联储降息，失业率得上升才行。 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】素有"新美联储通讯社"之称的评论人士Nick Timiraos撰文指出，设定利率有时更像艺术 而非科学，尤其是在经济持续违背预测之际——而美联储周三就正直面这一现实。 此外，美国消费支出中其实也已经出现了转弱的迹象。美国银行研究所数据显示，酒店、机票和餐饮等服务类消 费已连续三个月下降，这是自2008年以来的第一次。低收入家庭的信用卡消费在截至6月的三个月内也出现下降， 为一年多来首次。 然而，另一种观点认为，上述这些预警信号只是噪音而非切实的风险。在此情景下，经济不断打破预测的历史轨 迹将继续上演，其潜在驱动力可能会盖过新出现的负面因素。巴克莱全球研究主席Ajay Rajadhyaksha指出，支撑 经济的两大关键因素：人工智能投资的繁荣抵消了利率敏感型行业的疲软，以及房价上涨和股票投资组合带来的 可观财富积累，这可能继续支撑富裕群体的消费支出。 "另外，每次我去亚洲或欧洲，我都意识到人们并未意识到过去四年美国家庭的财富增长程度远超全球其他地 区"，他称，"除非出现一些不可预见的冲击，如长期政府债务收益率的急剧上升，否则我很难看到美国会出现全 面衰退"。 而Timiraos指出，鲍威尔 ...

日本总务省8月1日公布的6月完全失业率（季节调整值）为2.5%，与上月持平。 责任编辑：王珂 ...

每经AI快讯，8月1日最新披露数据显示，日本6月失业率为2.5%，预期2.5%，前值2.5%。 ...

智通财经8月1日电，日本6月失业率为2.5%，预期2.50%，前值2.50%。 ...