Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner, while silver is expected to break through and rise. Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate. Zinc will have a narrow - range fluctuation. Lead prices are under pressure due to the increase in overseas inventories. Tin and aluminum will fluctuate within a range. Alumina is driven by short - term sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Nickel's direction is determined by macro - expectations, and its elasticity is limited by fundamentals. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trend**: The price of gold is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 771.44, down 0.43%, and the night - session closing price was 774.32, up 0.49% [2][5]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 36,087 compared to the previous day, and the position increased by 2,732. The SPDR Gold ETF's position remained unchanged at 956.23 [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. The US court started oral arguments on Thursday, and the "reciprocal tariffs" face the "risk of cancellation" [5][9]. Silver - **Price and Trend**: Silver is expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9195, down 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 9234.00, up 0.46% [2][5]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 decreased by 611,380 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 5,678. The SLV Silver ETF's position increased by 14 to 15,173.92 [5]. Copper - **Price and Trend**: Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,840, down 0.20%, and the night - session closing price was 79090, up 0.32% [2][10]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 10,226 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,348. The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 251 [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. India is delaying new trade concessions. The US is considering a 50% tariff on copper imports starting next week [10][12]. Zinc - **Price and Trend**: Zinc will have a narrow - range fluctuation, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22655, up 0.04%, and the closing price of LME Zinc 3M was 2805.5, down 0.83% [2][13]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 65,890 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 6,845. The LME Zinc inventory decreased by 3,350 [13]. - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days [14]. Lead - **Price and Trend**: Lead prices are under pressure due to the increase in overseas inventories, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16900, down 0.09%, and the closing price of LME Lead 3M was 2017.5, down 0.15% [2][17]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 24,548 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 6,012. The LME Lead inventory increased by 6,700 [17]. - **News**: Sino - US will continue to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. The US job vacancies in June were 7.437 million, less than expected [18]. Tin - **Price and Trend**: Tin will fluctuate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 266,660, down 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 268,050, up 0.26% [2][21]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 26,514 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,387. The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 160 [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, Sino - US tariff - related issues and other macro - events are mentioned [21][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trend**: Aluminum and alumina will fluctuate within a range, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20605, down 10. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3307, up 64 [2][26]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 68,337 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 12,465. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots remained unchanged at 51.40 million tons [26]. - **News**: Trump set a new deadline for Russia to reach a Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the price of crude oil rose by more than 4% during the session. Trump and Bessent stated that the US will issue long - term bonds after the interest rate drops [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trend**: Nickel's direction is determined by macro - expectations, and its elasticity is limited by fundamentals. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,800, up 180. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,920, up 80 [2][30]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 177,969 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,420. The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract decreased by 211,230 compared to the previous day [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The governor of Ontario, Canada, threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [30][31].

特朗普在4月2日公布所谓"对等关税"措施后，美印两国在4月21日公布了双边贸易协议权限范围（Terms of Reference），特朗普政府一度表示印度可能是最早与美国达成贸易协议的国家之一。但经过5轮双方 会谈，双边贸易谈判至今仍陷于僵持之中。 据报道，印度在保护农业和乳业方面持强硬立场，双方在"去美元化"和购买俄罗斯石油等方面存在矛 盾。 新华财经纽约7月30日电（记者刘亚南）美国总统特朗普29日在搭乘总统专机"空军一号"从英国返程途 中对媒体记者表示，美国可能对印度输美产品征收20%至25%的关税，但尚未就此作出最终决定。 特朗普说，虽然印度是一个好朋友，但印度对从美国进口产品征收的关税几乎高于任何其他国家对美国 产品征收的关税。 美国贸易代表格里尔（ Jamieson Greer）28日表示，美国需要更多时间与印度谈判，以评估印度对美国 出口更多开放市场的意愿。 据报道，印度计划在8月中旬美国代表团访问期间重启范围更广的贸易谈判，目标是在今年9月或10月完 成一项综合性双边协议。 特朗普在25日对媒体表示，美国将向近200个贸易伙伴致信，从而确定美国对这些国家产品的关税税 率。他此前威胁从8月1日开 ...

Market Analysis - China's GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year-on-year, higher than the annual target of 5%, with fiscal efforts and "rush exports" supporting the economic data, but policy urgency has decreased [2] - China's exports in June were strong, and a new round of "rush exports" supported demand under the easing of Sino-US tariffs; the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in June slowed to 4.8%, mainly due to the suspension of subsidies in some regions, and subsequent policy subsidies are expected to support domestic consumption [2] - In terms of investment, infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined significantly, and overall fixed investment weakened. There is still a risk of the weak real estate sales dragging down the entire real estate chain [2] - On July 29, the A-share market strengthened throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Most stocks fell, and the trading volume was nearly 1830 billion yuan. Among commodity futures, the main glass contract fell more than 7%, coking coal fell more than 6%, and lithium carbonate fell more than 5% [2] Anti-Involution Progress Tracking - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of low-price and disorderly competition among enterprises. Policy expectations for "anti-involution" in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new energy vehicles have increased, and the prices of some commodities have rebounded [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, are about to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [3] - Multiple departments have notified the assessment of old equipment in the petrochemical and chemical industries, focusing on corresponding chemical products [3] Impact of "Reciprocal Tariffs" - Trump signed the "Great America" tax and spending bill, marking a shift in US policy from "tight fiscal expectations + neutral monetary policy" in the first half of the year to a stage of "easy to loosen, difficult to tighten" [4] - The 2.0 stage of reciprocal tariffs has officially begun, with 4 batches of tariff letters sent to 25 countries so far. The UK is pushing for an agreement in the steel sector, and the US has reached agreements with Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the EU to reduce reciprocal tariffs [4] - The EU plans to purchase AI chips worth 40 billion euros in the US-EU trade agreement. Japan has lowered its export assessment for the first time in a year, citing the impact of US trade policies [4] - The auction of 5-year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak, and overseas demand hit a three-year low. The US Treasury expects to borrow more than 1 trillion US dollars in the third quarter [4] Commodity Sector Focus - Domestically, the black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply side. Overseas, the energy and non-ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [5] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the supply shortage in the non-ferrous sector remains unresolved. In the energy sector, the short-term geopolitical premium has ended, and the medium-term supply is expected to be relatively loose [5] - Trump urged the UK to reduce taxes on the fossil fuel industry and increase North Sea oil production. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [5] - In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting. There is no short-term weather disturbance in agricultural products, and the fluctuation range is relatively limited [5] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, go long on industrial products on dips [6] Key News - The A-share market strengthened throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Most stocks fell, and nearly 3000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed lower. The trading volume was nearly 1830 billion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.86% [7] - Most US chip stocks rose before the market, with NVIDIA rising more than 1%. The EU plans to purchase AI chips worth 40 billion euros in the US-EU trade agreement [7] - Japan lowered its monthly export assessment for the first time in a year, partly due to the weakening of export demand to avoid US tariffs. Japan also adjusted its description of the overall economic situation, saying that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace [7] - The US Treasury auctioned 69 billion US dollars of two-year Treasury bonds, with a winning bid rate of 3.920% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.62 [7] - The US Treasury expects to borrow 1.01 trillion US dollars from July to September, higher than the previous forecast of 554 billion US dollars, mainly due to the impact of the debt ceiling [7] - Trump expressed disappointment with Russia's attitude towards the Ukraine war. WTI crude oil futures rose more than 2%, and among rare earth concept stocks, NioCorp Developments Ltd. fell 5.1%, Ucore UCORE RARE METALS fell 1.5%, Energy Fuels rose 0.6%, and MP Materials rose 0.2% [7] - The ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia officially took effect at 24:00 on July 28 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that President Trump's approval rating has dropped to 40%, marking a new low during his second term, with concerns from the public regarding his handling of economic and immigration policies [1][6]. - The poll conducted over three days surveyed 1,023 adults across the U.S., with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, revealing a significant polarization in public opinion towards Trump [4]. - Compared to a previous poll conducted in mid-July, Trump's approval rating for economic management increased from 35% to 38%, while his immigration approval rose from 41% to 43% [5]. Group 2 - Trump's administration has adopted aggressive strategies in both economic and immigration policies, which have led to mixed evaluations from the public [5][6]. - The article highlights Trump's trade policy, including the implementation of a 10% minimum baseline tariff and the potential for higher tariffs on imports if negotiations fail, which introduces significant uncertainty into the U.S. economy [5]. - Since January, Trump's overall approval rating has declined by approximately 12 percentage points, from 56% to 44%, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with his second term [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the US-EU trade negotiations are ongoing, with significant issues such as digital services tax and steel and aluminum trade still needing resolution [1][2] - US Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, emphasized that there is still much negotiation to be done, particularly regarding the digital services tax and the inclusion of steel and aluminum in the discussions [2][3] - The pharmaceutical and automotive industries are identified as key areas for the trade agreement, with the US planning to impose substantial tariffs on non-US produced pharmaceuticals [3][4] Group 2 - A non-binding joint statement is sought by August 1 to clarify parts of the agreement reached, which would lead to the US beginning to lower tariffs on specific EU industries [3][4] - The EU's commitment to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy over three years is met with skepticism, as last year's imports were less than $80 billion [4] - The deadline of August 1 is set for establishing all equivalent tariffs globally, with different timelines for negotiations with China [5]

美国政府正在迅速结束与欧盟、日本等主要贸易伙伴的磋商。 目前与加拿大、墨西哥、印度、韩国等国尚未达成协议，特朗普27日在与欧盟达成协议后表示，"正在 考虑与另外3~4个国家达成协议"。 特朗普7月28日在自己的社交媒体上表示，"已指示贸易团队"与泰国和柬埔寨重启贸易谈判。两国已就 边境附近的军事冲突达成停火协议。此前特朗普曾呼吁两国停火。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）八十岛绫平 华盛顿 美国的对等关税将从8月1日起适用新税率。特朗普表示"将是15%或20%"…… 美国总统特朗普7月28日就各国统一适用的对等关税的基本税率表示"将是15%或20%"。对等关税将从8 月1日起适用新税率。据称对象是未能与美国进行单独谈判的发展中国家等，具体税率将于近期同时通 知。 特朗普在出访的英国北部苏格兰与英国首相斯塔默举行会谈时，回答了记者的提问。他表示，基本税 率"将在15%至20%的范围内，将是其中一个数字"。 特朗普此前一直表明方针称，将向非洲国家及其他贸易量和经济规模较小、无法与美国谈判的国家同时 通报"尽可能压低的税率"。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-29 商品波动加剧，关注中美经贸会谈 市场分析 关注国内重要会议。上半年国内经济仍具韧性，中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，高于全年预期目标5%，财政发力 和"抢出口"现象为上半年经济数据提供支撑，但也对应着政策迫切性有所下降。中国6月出口表现亮眼，中美关税 缓和下，新一轮"抢出口"支撑需求；中国6月社零同比增速放缓至4.8%，主要受部分地区"两新"政策补贴断档拖累， 后续政策补贴有望继续下达支撑国内消费。投资方面，基建投资和制造业投资均明显回落，整体固定投资走弱， 地产销售走弱对整个地产链条拖累风险仍存。后续关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能。7月28日，A 股全天震荡上涨，三大股指集体收高，创业板涨近1%，医药股全天活跃。商品方面，国内商品期货大面积下跌， 焦煤、焦炭、玻璃、纯碱、工业硅、碳酸锂等纷纷跌停，也使得A股钢铁、煤炭板块走势。债市方面，国内期货普 遍走高，30年期主力合约涨0.56%。 "反内卷"的进展跟踪。7月以来，中央财经委、工信部等部门再次强调治理企业低价无序竞争，15日中钢协召开钢 铁工业规划部长会，研究建立产能治理新机制，光伏、锂电池、汽车、 ...

Group 1 - Companies in Taiwan are facing increasing pressure due to rising exchange rates, order fluctuations, and tariff issues, leading to labor costs being passed down to frontline workers [1] - A specific company in Taichung, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. tariff wars, has shifted from aiming for an IPO to being acquired due to the adverse impacts of currency appreciation [1] - The Taiwanese government is preparing a budget of NT$93 billion to support industries and stabilize the job market amid the tariff impacts on small and medium-sized enterprises [3] Group 2 - As of mid-July, 179 companies in Taiwan have implemented reduced work hours or unpaid leave, affecting 3,196 workers, marking a six-month high [2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs has led to 5% of surveyed companies reporting layoffs, while 25% have paused hiring plans [2] - The consumer confidence index in Taiwan has slightly increased to 64.38 points, ending a nine-month decline, although the overall economic outlook remains cautious [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The legal challenge against President Trump's trade strategy, particularly the use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), is set to be debated in a key court hearing, which could undermine recent trade agreements [1][2]. Legal Dispute over Tariff Authority - The central issue is whether the Trump administration has overstepped its authority by invoking IEEPA to impose tariffs, with the government claiming trade deficits and fentanyl trafficking constitute a "national emergency" [2][3]. - The plaintiffs, consisting of several small business owners, argue that IEEPA has never been used for tariff imposition in its nearly 50-year history and does not explicitly grant the president such power [2][3]. - A previous ruling by a three-judge panel of the U.S. International Trade Court favored the plaintiffs, stating that Trump exceeded his legal authority in using IEEPA, but this ruling has been temporarily stayed pending the upcoming appeal [2][3]. Broader Context of Legal Challenges - The "VOS Selections" case is one of several lawsuits challenging the applicability of IEEPA, with over six federal lawsuits targeting the same issue [3]. - Another case, "Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump," has already established a broader ruling that IEEPA does not permit unilateral tariff actions by the president [3]. Potential Supreme Court Involvement - Regardless of the outcome of the upcoming court ruling, it is widely anticipated that the case may ultimately reach the U.S. Supreme Court due to its implications for presidential power, congressional authority, and global trade [4]. - Legal experts and market analysts are closely monitoring the situation, with concerns that a ruling against the Trump administration could render recent trade agreements "illegal" [4]. White House Contingency Plans - Analysts suggest that if the IEEPA route is blocked, the White House may resort to alternative legal frameworks, such as Sections 122, 232, 301, and 338 of the Trade Act [6]. - This shift could maintain similar average tariff levels but may lead to a more complex and unpredictable trade environment [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of a framework trade agreement between the EU and the US, where the US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU imports, significantly lower than the previously proposed 30% [1][3] - The EU will invest an additional $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of energy over three years to reduce reliance on Russian gas [3][4] - The agreement has received mixed reactions within the EU, with some leaders welcoming it for providing stability, while others, like the French Prime Minister, view it as a negative development [3][4] Group 2 - The trade relationship between the US and EU is significant, with projected trade volumes reaching $975.3 billion by 2024, while the trade between China and the EU is expected to exceed $780 billion [6] - Despite the ongoing trade negotiations, the EU's stance towards China has been cautious, with recent criticisms and sanctions against Chinese entities, indicating a complex relationship [6][8] - The EU's dependency on China in sectors like renewable energy and advanced technologies has increased, contradicting the narrative of "decoupling" from China [8][9]