Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View PVC and Caustic Soda - In the short term, the supply pressure of caustic soda is limited during the concentrated maintenance period, and the demand from the alumina sector has improved. Supported by fundamental supply - demand and positive macro - drivers, the spot price of caustic soda tends to be strong. However, attention should be paid to the price acceptance of non - aluminum sectors and the valuation of caustic soda. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. - For PVC, in the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is limited due to concentrated maintenance and limited inventory pressure. There is an expectation of rush - exporting PVC products. But in the medium and long term, there is an obvious over - supply pressure. It is recommended to wait and see, with a short - term rebound and a medium - term short - selling approach [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, in the short term, the supply is tight and the demand is supported, but the upward pressure on crude oil and the possible production cut of downstream products may put pressure on PX. It is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock, exit the PX09 - 1 positive spread, and pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity [12]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - demand is tight, but there is an expectation of weakening. It is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock, exit the TA09 - 1 positive spread at a high level, and pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity [12]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to reduce inventory in May, and it is recommended to take profit on the short - put option EG2509 - P - 4250 seller and conduct a long spread on EG9 - 1 [12]. - For short - fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is not large, but the processing fee is compressed. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for single - side trading and expand the processing fee at a low level [12]. - For bottle - chips, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee at the lower edge of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [12]. Styrene The short - term rebound of styrene is supported by low inventory and improved demand expectations. However, the high - production and high - inventory problems of 3S products and the poor supply - demand of pure benzene may limit the rebound height. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance above 7800 - 7900 in the near - month [18]. Methanol The inland valuation of methanol has a downward pressure, the port starts the inventory - accumulation period, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell the MA09 contract at a high level [22]. Crude Oil The overnight oil price continued to decline due to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation. The short - term market will be mainly in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and capture volatility - amplification opportunities in the option market [26]. PE and PP The spot sentiment of PE and PP has weakened. The supply pressure will gradually decrease in May, but the cost - end rebound compresses the profit. Attention should be paid to the restocking and exporting of plastic products [29]. Urea The core logic of the rise in urea futures is the boost of the clear export policy. The short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, but the actual increase depends on the policy implementation and export orders. The short - term disk will be in a wide - range consolidation [90]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures - On May 15, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda were 2593.8 yuan/ton and 2760.0 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC and ethylene - based PVC were 4880.0 yuan/ton and 5100.0 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The price differences and changes of SH and V series futures contracts were also provided [2]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - For caustic soda, the FOB price at East China ports on May 8 was 395.0 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 5.0 dollars/ton compared to May 1 [3]. - For PVC, the CFR prices in Southeast Asia and India remained unchanged from May 1 to May 8. The FOB price of calcium - carbide - based PVC at Tianjin Port decreased by 10.0 dollars/ton [4]. Supply - The caustic soda industry's operating rate on May 9 was 87.5%, and the PVC's total operating rate was 77.9%, both showing an increase [5]. Demand - The operating rates of the alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries were provided, with some showing an increase [6]. - The operating rates of PVC downstream products and the pre - sales volume were also provided, with some showing an increase and the pre - sales volume showing a decrease [7]. Inventory - The inventory data of liquid caustic soda and PVC were provided, with some showing an increase and some showing a decrease [7]. Polyester Industry Chain Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - The price and cash - flow data of various polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [12]. PX - related Prices and Spreads - The price data of CFR China PX, PX spot, and futures, and the price differences such as PX - crude oil, PX - naphtha, etc., and their changes were provided [12]. PTA - related Prices and Spreads - The price data of PTA spot and futures, and the price - difference data such as PTA basis, PTA processing fee, etc., and their changes were provided [12]. MEG - related Prices and Spreads - The price data of MEG spot and futures, and the price - difference data such as MEG basis, MEG processing fee, etc., and their changes were provided [12]. Industry Chain Operating Rates - The operating rates of the Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester industries and their changes were provided [12]. Styrene Upstream - The price data of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and other upstream products and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [15]. Spot and Futures - The price data of styrene spot and futures and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [16]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - The price data of styrene's overseas quotes and import profits and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [17]. Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits - The operating rates and profit data of domestic pure benzene, styrene, PS, EPS, ABS, etc., and their changes were provided [18]. Inventory - The inventory data of pure benzene, styrene, PS, EPS, ABS, etc., and their changes were provided [18]. Methanol Price and Spreads - The price data of methanol futures contracts, the price differences between contracts, the basis, and the regional price differences, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [22]. Inventory - The inventory data of methanol enterprises, ports, and the weekly arrival volume, and their changes were provided [22]. Up - and Down - stream Operating Rates - The operating rates of methanol upstream enterprises, downstream MTO devices, formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, etc., and their changes were provided [22]. Crude Oil Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - The price data of Brent, WTI, SC crude oils, and the price differences such as Brent - WTI, SC - Brent, etc., and their changes on May 16 compared to May 15 were provided [26]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - The price data of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, ICE Gasoil, and the price differences between contracts, and their changes were provided [26]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - The crack - spread data of various refined oils in different regions and their changes were provided [26]. PE and PP Price and Spreads - The price data of PE and PP futures contracts, the price differences between contracts, the basis, and the prices of various PE and PP products, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [29]. Up - and Down - stream Operating Rates - The operating rates of PE and PP devices, downstream weighted operating rates, and their changes were provided [29]. Inventory - The inventory data of PE and PP enterprises, social inventories, and their changes were provided [29]. Urea Futures - The price data of urea futures contracts, the price differences between contracts, the main - contract positions, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [82][83][84]. Upstream Raw Materials - The price data of upstream raw materials such as anthracite, steam coal, synthetic ammonia, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [85]. Spot Market - The spot - market price data of urea in different regions, the cross - regional price differences, the basis, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [86][87]. Downstream Products - The price data of downstream products such as melamine, compound fertilizer, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [88]. Fertilizer Market - The price data of various fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate, sulfur, potassium chloride, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [89]. Supply and Demand - The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order - day data of urea, and their changes were provided [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port basis of styrene has peaked and declined, reflecting that traders are realizing trading profits, and the downstream is in a loss state with low PS and ABS operating rates and continuous inventory pressure on finished products of the three major hard plastics. However, attention should be paid to the short - covering rhythm of previously over - sold traders. Against the background of the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the demand for pure benzene has bottomed out and rebounded. The low operating rates of caprolactam and aniline in the downstream of pure benzene may improve due to the tariff reduction, but the subsequent arrival pressure of pure benzene still exists. The report suggests a cautious long - hedging strategy [2][3] Summary by Directory EB& Pure Benzene Basis Structure and Related Spreads - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 12.30 million tons (+0.30 million tons), the CFR China processing fee is $186/ton (+$12/ton), the FOB Korea processing fee is $174/ton (+$17/ton), the US - Korea price difference is $31.7/ton (-$22.0/ton) and remains closed, and the East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 15 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [1] - Styrene: The main contract basis is 251 yuan/ton (+7 yuan/ton), the non - integrated production profit is 331 yuan/ton (-27 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1] EB& Pure Benzene Operating Rates and Inventories - Pure benzene: The East China port inventory is related to the data of 12.30 million tons (+0.30 million tons), and the operating rate is not specifically mentioned in the summarized key data [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 56,700 tons (-11,800 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 44,900 tons (-8,600 tons), and it is in the inventory rebuilding stage. The operating rate is 71.3% (-0.9%) [1] Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS: The production profit is 240 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 62.34% (+14.96%) [1] - PS: The production profit is - 210 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 57.10% (+0.80%) [1] - ABS: The production profit is 363 yuan/ton (+747 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 67.39% (-1.61%) [1] Pure Benzene Downstream Production Profits - Not specifically summarized in the key data, but it mentions that the low operating rates of caprolactam and aniline are affected by factors such as the decline in exports of related products, and the impact of tariff reduction on their demand needs attention [2]

IL期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月15日 Z0020680 苗扬 期货收盘价 | 品种 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约 | 1814 | 1798 | 16 | 0.89% | 元/吨 | | 05合约 | 1900 | 1930 | -30 | -1.55% | | | 09合约 | 1886 | 1897 | =11 | -0.58% | | | 甲醇主力合约 Hm = A / L / A 3 / | 2365 | 2291 | 74 | 3.23% | | 期货合约价差 | 价差 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约-05合约 | -86 | -132 | 46 | 34.85% | | | 05合约-09合约 | 14 | 33 | -19 | -57.58% | | | 09合约-01合约 | 72 | дд | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Urea - Despite high daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline in daily output. The new export policy allows the release of supportive export orders from May to June, and the upcoming summer top - dressing season in May - June is expected to boost agricultural demand. Market price increases are likely to be cautious, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [3]. Crude Oil - Oil prices continued to rise, driven by the progress of China - US trade negotiations and geopolitical uncertainties. In the short term, the market risk appetite has increased, but no strong trend has been formed yet, and the sustainability of the macro - drive needs to be observed. The monthly - line fluctuation ranges are adjusted to [57, 67] for WTI, [60, 70] for Brent, and [450, 510] for SC [7]. Styrene - Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium term, putting pressure on chemical products. Pure benzene supply has decreased recently, but overall supply pressure remains due to imports. Styrene downstream demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for styrene, with the upper resistance for the near - term contract at 7300 [13]. PE and PP - For LLDPE, although imports are expected to decline significantly from May to June and supply pressure will gradually decrease, inventory pressure is still large under the situation of weak supply and demand, and there is a long - term downward risk. For PP, supply pressure eases slightly during the second - quarter maintenance season, but production is still high, demand is weakening, and there is also a long - term downward risk [17]. Caustic Soda - In the medium - to - long term, the demand for caustic soda from alumina is insufficient, and new production capacity is being added, so the supply - demand outlook is weak. In the short term, caustic soda is in the maintenance phase, and the price has been supported. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy, with the near - term resistance at 2550 [26]. PVC - The supply - demand surplus of PVC is prominent. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are mainly based on price - for - volume. The long - term surplus problem is difficult to solve, and the price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, but there is a risk of price rebound during the maintenance period [26]. Methanol - The inland valuation has a downward pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered a stock - building period, and the MTO low - operation rate suppresses demand. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies [35][38]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Tight supply and short - term strong demand support its price, but the rebound space is limited. PX09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and PX9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread situation [40]. - PTA: The supply - demand pattern remains tight in the short term, and the price is expected to be relatively strong compared to oil prices, but the rebound is suppressed. TA09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and TA9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread and medium - term reverse spread situation [40]. - MEG: Domestic supply is expected to increase in May, but short - term de - stocking is expected due to high polyester load and reduced imports. EG09 is expected to be strong in the short term [40]. - Short - fiber: Inventory pressure is low in the short term, but the driving force is weaker than that of raw materials. The processing fee is under pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [40]. - Bottle - chip: Supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. The processing fee is supported, and the main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 550 yuan/ton [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - The prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts and the methanol main contract all increased, with increases ranging from 0.22% to 1.26% [1]. Contract Spreads - The spreads of 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01, and UR - MA main contracts changed, with changes ranging from - 16.00% to 44.83% [1]. Main Positions - The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, with the long positions increasing by 2.05% and the short positions increasing by 2.51%. The long - short ratio decreased slightly [1]. Upstream Raw Materials - Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, except for the port price of steam - coal in Qinhuangdao, which decreased by 0.78% [1]. Spot Market Prices - Spot prices in most regions increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 2.16% [1]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily production decreased slightly, with a 1.20% decline in domestic daily urea production. Weekly production increased slightly by 0.21%, and factory inventory decreased by 10.58% while port inventory increased by 12.71% [3]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 1.34%. Spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [7]. Product Prices and Spreads - Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 0.71%. Spreads also changed [7]. Crack Spreads - Crack spreads of various refined products changed, with increases ranging from 0.28% to 4.28% for some products and decreases for others [7]. Styrene Upstream - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 0.8% to 2.5%. The opening rates of domestic pure benzene and styrene increased [10][13]. Spot and Futures - The spot price of styrene in East China decreased slightly by 0.1%, while futures prices EB2506 and EB2507 increased by 1.0% and 1.1% respectively [11]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - Overseas quotes of styrene increased slightly, but the import profit decreased by 11.4% [12]. Industry Chain Inventory - Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports decreased, while inventories of some downstream products also changed [13]. PE and PP Prices and Spreads - PE and PP futures prices mostly decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed. Spot prices also decreased slightly [17]. Non - standard Prices - Most non - standard PE and PP prices decreased or remained stable [17]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - PE and PP device opening rates decreased, and downstream weighted opening rates also decreased slightly [17]. Inventory - PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, with increases of 38.99% and 19.76% respectively [17]. Caustic Soda and PVC Spot and Futures - For caustic soda, the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased by 0.7%. For PVC, the prices of some futures contracts changed, with increases or decreases [21]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 1.3%, and the FOB price of PVC in Tianjin decreased by 1.6% [22][23]. Supply - The opening rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased slightly [24]. Demand - The opening rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [25][26]. Inventory - The PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased slightly [26]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - Methanol futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and regional spreads also changed [35]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory and port inventory increased, and the weekly arrival volume increased by 12.50% [35]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise opening rate increased, and the downstream MTO device opening rate increased [35]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 1.0% to 2.5% [40]. PX - related - PX prices and spreads changed, with the CFR China PX price increasing by 0.9% [40]. PTA - related - PTA prices and spreads changed, and the processing fees of PTA also changed [40]. MEG - related - MEG prices and spreads changed, and the port inventory decreased slightly [40]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - Prices of POY, FDY, etc. increased, and cash flows and processing fees of polyester products also changed [40]. Industry Chain Opening Rates - Opening rates of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, OPEC's production increase has been fulfilled as scheduled. It is recommended that investors gradually take profits on dips, and it is not advisable to chase short positions excessively in the short term. In the current situation of low static inventory, going long on the positive spread on dips is still a good position [1]. - The domestic methanol supply is expected to continue to rise, imports will gradually increase, and traditional demand will gradually weaken. The supply - demand pattern will gradually weaken, and prices still face downward pressure. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies for single - sided trading, and pay attention to reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 spread [3]. - For urea, it is expected that there will be some support at the bottom, and prices will tend to be strong. Traders with long positions at low levels can continue to hold, while those not in the market should wait for the market sentiment to cool down before considering long positions. The inter - month spread should focus on positive spreads on dips [5]. - Rubber prices have returned to range - bound trading. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. - For styrene, pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [13]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation [15]. - Polyethylene prices are expected to remain volatile in the short and medium term, while polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in May [17][18]. - PX and PTA are in the maintenance season, with short - term valuation support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil. For ethylene glycol, the focus is on whether the inventory reduction expectation can be realized [20][21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose by $2.33, or 4.02%, to $60.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose by $2.17, or 3.56%, to $63.12; INE main crude oil futures fell by 7.20 yuan, or 1.54% [6]. - **Inventory Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.22 million barrels to 13.43 million barrels, a 1.63% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.18 million barrels to 8.91 million barrels, a 2.05% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.93 million barrels to 20.54 million barrels, an 8.59% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.54 million barrels to 42.88 million barrels, a 3.46% decrease [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 09 contract fell by 23 yuan/ton to 2216 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell by 42 yuan/ton, with a basis of +164 [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic enterprise start - up rates are gradually rising, and production is at a historically high level. Supply will continue to increase, imports will rise, and traditional demand will weaken [3]. - **Profit**: Enterprise profits have declined due to weak spot prices but remain at a high level overall. Future profits are expected to shift downstream, and production profits are expected to be further compressed [3]. - **Strategy**: Focus on short - selling on rallies for single - sided trading, pay attention to reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 spread, and look for long - position opportunities for the 09 contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 09 contract fell by 4 yuan/ton to 1882 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +18 [5]. - **Policy and Market**: The fertilizer export symposium pointed out that May - September is the fertilizer export window, and urea exports to India are prohibited. The total fertilizer export volume should not exceed the 2023 level. It is likely that partial exports will be gradually liberalized, but the intensity will be limited [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is gradually increasing, and the domestic market is in the peak season for summer top - dressing demand. Exports are highly uncertain [5]. - **Strategy**: Traders with long positions at low levels can continue to hold, while those not in the market should wait for the market sentiment to cool down before considering long positions. The inter - month spread should focus on positive spreads on dips [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices have returned to range - bound trading, showing relative strength among industrial products [8]. - **Supply - Side Policy**: Thailand intends to postpone rubber tapping for one month to counter US tariff threats. If strictly implemented, rubber production is expected to decrease by 20 - 30 tons, but the market anticipates that the actual reduction may be less than 20 tons [9]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Tire factory start - up rates are declining. As of May 8, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up rate in Shandong was 44.75%, down 9.59 percentage points from last week and 4.44 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up rate was 57.98%, down 11.14 percentage points from last week and 18.11 percentage points from the same period last year. As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 135.5 tons, a 0.12% increase [10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [11]. 3.5 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 06 contract closed at 6936 (-105) yuan/ton, and the Jiangsu spot price was 7140 (-100) yuan/ton, with a basis of +204 (+8) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side maintenance has ended and production is restarting, while demand remains weak. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are declining, and the production plans of white - goods manufacturers are weakening [13]. - **Inventory**: The absolute inventory at ports is at a low level, and inventory reduction this week may limit the decline in styrene prices [13]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [13]. 3.6 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell by 37 yuan to 4839 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4660 (-40) yuan/ton, with a basis of -179 (-3) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall start - up rate of PVC is 79.3%, a 0.7% week - on - week increase. The downstream start - up rate is 43.9%, a 4.2% decrease. Factory inventory is 41.1 tons (-0.9), and social inventory is 64 tons (-4.8) [15]. - **Cost and Profit**: Cost remains stable, and the profit pressure of integrated enterprises is high. There are still many maintenance plans for calcium - carbide - based production facilities [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, although inventory is being reduced rapidly, the supply - demand situation is weak. Further inventory reduction depends on maintenance intensity and exports. PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15]. 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices are falling. The main contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decrease, and the spot price was 7335 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan decrease, with a basis of 319 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan weakening [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the second quarter, new production capacity on the supply side is large, and the supply side may face pressure. The seasonal off - season is approaching, and demand for agricultural films is decreasing [17]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory is 57.54 tons, a 16.14 - ton increase, and trader inventory is 6.06 tons, a 0.75 - ton increase [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the downward trend is dominated by supply - side production capacity start - up. In the medium and long term, only a 50 - ton ExxonMobil No. 3 device is expected to start production in May, and prices are expected to remain volatile [17]. 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices are falling. The main contract closed at 6985 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan decrease, and the spot price remained unchanged at 7280 yuan/ton, with a basis of 295 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan strengthening [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, there is no new production capacity on the supply side, and maintenance is at a high level. The downstream start - up rate is expected to decline seasonally [18]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory is 67.64 tons, an 11.16 - ton increase; trader inventory is 14.27 tons, a 1.32 - ton increase; and port inventory is 7.79 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase [18]. - **Outlook**: Polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in May [18]. 3.8 PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose by 116 yuan to 6404 yuan, and PX CFR rose by 10 dollars to 778 dollars, with a basis of 59 yuan (-27) and a 9 - 1 spread of 70 yuan (+34) [19][20]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: PX is still in the maintenance season. Chinese PX operating rate is 73%, and Asian operating rate is 67.9%. There are device restarts and maintenance [20]. - **Inventory and Import**: In April, South Korea's PX exports to China were 39 tons, a 9 - ton increase. Inventory at the end of March was 468 tons, unchanged month - on - month [20]. - **Valuation and Cost**: PXN is 206 dollars (+13), and naphtha crack spread is 115 dollars (+15) [20]. - **Outlook**: In the second quarter, domestic inventory is expected to continue to decline. The terminal textile and clothing orders are weak, and the industry faces medium - term negative feedback pressure. However, short - term terminal restocking has alleviated polyester inventory pressure, and the risk of negative feedback is postponed. The short - term valuation has support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil [20]. 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose by 80 yuan to 4546 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 50 yuan to 4615 yuan, with a basis of 120 yuan (+12) and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 yuan (+62) [21]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: PTA is in the maintenance season, with an operating rate of 70.3%, a 7.4% decrease. There are device restarts and maintenance [21]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The downstream operating rate is 94%, a 0.6% increase. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates are rising [21]. - **Inventory**: On May 6, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 254.2 tons, a 14.7 - ton decrease [21]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Spot processing fee decreased by 8 yuan to 375 yuan, and on - paper processing fee increased by 4 yuan to 345 yuan [21]. - **Outlook**: The industry faces medium - term negative feedback pressure, but short - term terminal restocking has alleviated polyester inventory pressure, and the risk of negative feedback is postponed. PTA short - term valuation has support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil [21]. 3.8.3 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose by 23 yuan to 4222 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 7 yuan to 4262 yuan, with a basis of 70 yuan (+14) and a 9 - 1 spread of -7 yuan (+15) [22]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: The ethylene glycol operating rate is 69%, a 0.6% increase. There are device restarts, maintenance, and production - rate adjustments [22]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The downstream operating rate is 94%, a 0.6% increase. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates are rising [22]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 79 tons, a 1 - ton decrease [22]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Naphtha - based production profit is -529 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production profit is -673 yuan, and coal - based production profit is 966 yuan. Cost remains stable [22]. - **Outlook**: The industry is in the inventory - reduction stage, but the actual inventory - reduction extent is limited due to high hidden inventory. The industry faces medium - term negative feedback risk, and the focus is on whether the inventory - reduction expectation can be realized [22].

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月7日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 5月6日 | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 | 7230 | 7273 | -43 | -0.59% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 6987 | 7083 | -96 | -1.36% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7105 | 7126 | -21 | -0.29% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | ୧୦୦୧ | 7041 | -46 | -0.65% | | | L2505-2509 | 243 | 190 | 53 | 27.89% | | | PP2505-2509 | 110 | 82 | 25 | 29.41% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7130 | 7200 | -70 | -0.97% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7230 | 7300 | -70 | -0.96% | | | 华北 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - LL: In May, maintenance increases and imports decrease. If the exemption of ethane imports weakens the expectation of supply reduction, attention should be paid to the demand situation after May. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is still large, and there is a possibility of decline in the long - term pattern [4]. - PP: In the second quarter, the peak maintenance season eases the supply pressure slightly, but the output is still high. The demand has bottom support but is gradually weakening. The long - term pattern is weak, and there is a downward risk [4]. Styrene Industry - The market price of pure benzene continues to decline. The raw material trend is weak, and the downstream styrene futures are also weak. The supply of pure benzene has returned, and there is no sign of improvement. The styrene market is weakly volatile, and there is supply pressure in May. In the medium term, due to the impact of tariffs, there is price pressure on styrene. The strategy is to participate in high - altitude operations, with the upper resistance line at 7300 [11]. Polyester Industry - PX: The short - term trading may be stronger, and the strategy is to focus on expanding the low - level spread of PX - SC. - PTA: The supply and demand drive becomes stronger, and the price support is relatively strong. The strategy is to wait and see before the festival, and treat TA9 - 1 as a short - term positive spread and a medium - term reverse spread. - Ethylene glycol: It is expected to fluctuate in May. The strategy is that EGO9 is expected to fluctuate between 4050 - 4300. - Short - fiber: The rebound space is limited, and it will be mainly adjusted by shock before the festival. The strategy is similar to PTA for one - side trading, and pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee of PFO6 below 900. - Bottle chips: The output is expected to be high, and the relative price follows the raw material fluctuations. The strategy is similar to PTA for one - side trading, and the main contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 550 yuan/ton [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The short - term supply and demand improve marginally, but the long - term expectation is weak. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival, and mainly go short in the medium - term for the 09 contract. - PVC: The start - up rate increases slightly, and the social inventory continues to decline seasonally. The demand is average, and there are problems in exports. The short - term operation should be cautious, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to participate in high - altitude operations [24]. Urea Industry - The main problem is the poor connection between supply and demand under the background of high supply. The supply pressure is increasing. The demand shows structural differentiation. The main contract 2509 may have a small rebound after the festival. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival, and take a short - selling strategy on rallies after the festival if there is a small rebound and no obvious improvement in the fundamentals. The option strategy is to buy and expand the spread in the short - term [30][31]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price was weakly running, pressured by macro - pressure and supply - side easing expectations. If the consumption end fails to replenish stocks in May, the downward channel of the market may further open. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival. The volatility ranges are given as [59, 69] for WTI, [62, 72] for Brent, and [460, 520] for SC. The option strategy is to focus on increasing volatility [49]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry PE and PP Prices and Spreads - L2505, L2509, PP2505, PP2509 closing prices decreased on April 29 compared with April 28, with the largest decline of - 0.59% for L2509. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed, such as the spread of L2505 - 2509 increased by 5.82% [1]. PE and PP Non - standard Prices - The price of East China LDPE increased by 1.09% to 9250 yuan/ton, while the prices of other non - standard products such as East China HD film and PP injection showed different degrees of change [2]. PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventories - PE device operating rate decreased slightly by 0.07% to 83.8%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased slightly by 0.02% to 40.2%. PE enterprise inventory increased by 3.41% to 49.7 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.52% to 60.1 million tons. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.3% to 75.5%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 50.1%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.37% to 60.4 million tons [2][3]. Styrene Industry Styrene Upstream - Brent crude oil (June) and CFR Japan naphtha prices decreased on April 29 compared with April 28, with decreases of - 2.4% and - 1.0% respectively. The prices of other upstream products such as CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR Korea benzene also changed [8]. Styrene Spot and Futures - The East China spot price of styrene decreased by - 0.2% to 7250 yuan/ton on April 29 compared with April 28. The prices of EB2505 and EB2506 also decreased slightly [9]. Styrene Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - The overseas quotes of styrene remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, and the import profit was - 243 yuan/ton [10]. Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits - The domestic comprehensive operating rate of pure benzene increased by 1.1% to 71.1%, and the styrene operating rate increased by 1.7% to 67.9%. However, the operating rates of PS, EPS, and ABS decreased. The profits of styrene integration and non - integration decreased significantly, while the profit of PS increased by 133.3% [11]. Polyester Industry Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY150/48, FDY150/96, and polyester bottle chips showed different degrees of change on April 29 compared with April 28. The cash flows of some products also changed, such as the cash flow of POY150/48 decreased by - 35.6% [16]. PX - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of PX - related products such as CFR China PX and PX spot price (RMB) decreased slightly on April 29 compared with April 28, and the spreads also changed [16]. PTA - related Prices and Spreads - The PTA East China spot price decreased by - 1.0% to 4540 yuan/ton on April 29 compared with April 28. The prices of TA futures also changed, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also showed corresponding changes [16]. MEG - related Prices and Spreads - MEG port inventory increased by 3.2% to 800,000 tons, and the expected arrival decreased by 37.8% to 122,000 tons on April 21 compared with April 28. The prices of MEG futures and the basis also changed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate Changes - The operating rates of different links in the polyester industry chain such as Asian PX, PTA, and MEG showed different degrees of change on April 25 compared with April 18 [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures - The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, while the prices of other products such as Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda and PVC futures contracts changed [20]. Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda decreased by 7.0% to 400 US dollars/ton on April 24 compared with April 17, and the export profit decreased significantly by - 125.8% [20]. PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The overseas quotes of PVC remained unchanged on April 24 compared with April 17, and the export profit increased by 90.5% [21]. Supply: Chlor - alkali Operating Rates and Industry Profits - The operating rates of caustic soda and PVC increased slightly on April 25 compared with April 18. The profit of external - purchase calcium - carbide - based PVC remained unchanged, while the profit of Northwest integration decreased by 6.8% [22]. Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rates - The operating rates of caustic soda downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber decreased on April 25 compared with April 18 [23]. Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rates - The operating rates of PVC downstream products such as Longzhong sample pipes increased slightly on April 25 compared with April 18, and the pre - sales volume also increased [24]. Chlor - alkali Inventories: Social and Factory Inventories - The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased by 1.1% to 183,000 tons on April 24 compared with April 17, and the PVC total social inventory decreased by 4.7% to 421,000 tons [24]. Urea Industry Urea Futures Contracts - The prices of urea futures contracts such as 01, 05, and 09 decreased on April 29 compared with April 28, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [26]. Urea Upstream Raw Materials - The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite small pieces and steam coal remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, while the price of synthetic ammonia decreased by 3.21% [26]. Urea Spot Market Prices - The prices of urea in different regions such as Shandong and Henan showed different degrees of change on April 29 compared with April 28, and the spreads between different regions also changed [26]. Urea Downstream Products - The prices of urea downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, and the ratio of compound fertilizer to urea decreased by 1.10% [28]. Fertilizer Market - The prices of fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and phosphoric acid mono - ammonium showed different degrees of change on April 29 compared with April 28 [29]. Urea Supply and Demand Overview - The daily and weekly production of urea remained unchanged, and the factory inventory remained stable. The port inventory increased slightly. The demand showed structural differentiation, with industrial demand maintaining rigid procurement and agricultural fertilization not yet started [30]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices decreased on April 30 compared with April 29. The spreads between different contracts and regions also changed, such as the spread of Brent M1 - M3 increased significantly by - 2050.00% [49]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and ICE Gasoil changed on April 30 compared with April 29, and the spreads between different contracts also showed corresponding changes [49]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - The crack spreads of refined oil products in different regions such as the US and Europe showed different degrees of change on April 30 compared with April 29 [49].

Core Viewpoint - PVC futures prices are maintaining low levels, with a slight increase observed in the spot market, indicating a mixed outlook for the industry amid seasonal demand fluctuations and macroeconomic uncertainties [1] Price and Market Activity - As of April 28, PVC futures price (V2509) closed at 4989 CNY/ton, up 0.28%, with a trading volume of 720,000 lots, an increase of 100,000 lots from the previous period, while open interest decreased by 30,000 lots to 910,000 lots [1] - In the East China region, the price of acetylene-based PVC is quoted between 4740 - 4860 CNY/ton, with traders experiencing sluggish sales and downstream manufacturers primarily purchasing based on essential needs at lower prices [1] Cost Factors - Recent maintenance of some acetylene production facilities has led to a rebound in acetylene prices, which reached 2500 CNY/ton in the Inner Mongolia region, an increase of 50 CNY/ton [1] Supply Dynamics - The operating rate of the PVC industry was reported at 78.63% as of April 25, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.28 percentage points, with weekly production at 459,400 tons, up by 7,500 tons, marking a 1.66% increase [1] - The industry is experiencing a prolonged period of concentrated maintenance, with a slowdown in maintenance efforts [1] Demand Insights - A recent drop in PVC prices has stimulated some speculative demand, with pre-sale orders from PVC producers reaching 602,000 tons as of April 25, an increase of 6.02% [1] - As the May Day holiday approaches, expectations of increased downtime among downstream manufacturing enterprises are noted, with the comprehensive operating rate in downstream industries remaining stable at 48.16% [1] Export and Inventory Trends - Demand in the Indian market is reported to be decent, particularly in agriculture, while real estate demand remains weak, leading to a cautious purchasing stance among local buyers [1] - PVC social inventory has decreased for seven consecutive weeks, standing at 420,600 tons as of April 25, down 4.71% week-on-week and down 29.04% year-on-year [1] Overall Market Outlook - With the May Day holiday approaching and the current spring construction peak season, the expected reduction in demand is limited, while supply is entering a seasonal reduction phase [1] - Despite high export volumes and continuous decline in social inventory, the overall fundamentals of the PVC market show marginal improvement, although macroeconomic and financial sentiment remains uncertain, leading to insufficient upward momentum [1]

期货研究报告|EB 周报 2025-04-27 纯苯加工费同期低位，下游开工仍偏低 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 苯乙烯观点 ■ 市场要闻与重要数据 上游方面：本周国内纯苯开工率 71.12 %（0.72 %），国产开工仍处于偏低位，但 5 月 油化工整体开工回升；国内纯苯下游开工虽底部反弹，但 CPL 及苯胺仍处于开工偏低 位，苯乙烯开工仍等待回升，下游开工偏低。 纯苯华东港口库存 12.10 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR: Neutral [5] - BR: Neutral [5] Core Views - **Market Analysis - Natural Rubber** - **Raw Materials and Spreads**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually entering the tapping season. At the beginning of tapping, the increase in raw materials is limited. The price of Thai latex has remained stable recently, but as production gradually increases, the raw material price is expected to continue to decline [2]. - **Supply**: In April, global natural rubber production was still at a low level for the year. The main production area in Yunnan, China, has started tapping, and the latex output is expected to gradually increase. With the expected increase in supply and the profit in Thai standard rubber processing, the expected increase in domestic arrivals remains. Overall, supply is showing a gradual upward trend [2]. - **Demand**: As of April 25, the full - steel tire operating rate was 65.36% (-2.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 72.36% (-0.04%). The downstream tire operating rate continued to be weak, especially the semi - steel tire operating rate, which decreased year - on - year due to the increase in tire factory finished product inventory pressure. Recently, with the decline in upstream raw material prices, tire factory profits have improved significantly, and tire factory purchases have increased slightly, but they are still mainly rigid purchases, providing limited support for rubber prices [2]. - **Inventory**: This week, both the Qingdao port inventory and social inventory showed a slight downward trend. Year - on - year, the current inventory reduction is still less than in previous years. The recent decline is mainly due to the increase in tire factory purchases after the absolute price reached a low level [2]. - **Market Analysis - Butadiene Rubber** - **Upstream Raw Materials**: As of April 25, the price of butadiene from Shanghai Petrochemical was 8,800 yuan/ton, and the cost of butadiene rubber was 11,476 yuan/ton. This week, the butadiene price was firm, and due to the high raw material price, the production of butadiene rubber continued to incur losses [3]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of April 25, the operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 67.17% (+4.41%), and the output was 26,971 tons (+1,771). Under the loss situation, it is difficult for the operating rate to increase significantly in the later stage [3]. - **Production Profit**: As of April 25, the production profit of butadiene rubber was - 141 yuan/ton. Currently, due to the relatively high butadiene price year - on - year, the production of domestic butadiene rubber continues to be in a loss state, and the loss has narrowed recently [3]. - **Inventory**: As of April 25, the upstream butadiene port inventory was 27,400 tons (+2,920), the butadiene rubber production enterprise inventory was 27,710 tons (0.09), and the butadiene rubber trader inventory was 3,610 tons (-760) [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream tire operating rate continued to be weak, especially the semi - steel tire operating rate, which decreased year - on - year. Recently, with the decline in upstream raw material prices, tire factory profits have improved significantly, and tire factory purchases have increased slightly, but they are still mainly rigid purchases, providing limited support for rubber prices [4]. Strategies - **RU and NR**: Currently, with the decline in raw material prices, the production profits of domestic full - steel and semi - steel tires have improved. Coupled with the stocking demand for the May Day holiday, downstream tire factory purchases have increased, leading to a decline in domestic social inventory and Qingdao port inventory in the past week. However, tire factory orders have not improved, and the demand side provides limited support. Supply shows a seasonal upward trend, indicating that supply and demand are still weak. In the later stage, attention should be paid to changes in US tariff increases. If high tariffs are maintained, the drag on demand will continue. Once the tariffs are alleviated, the low - valued rubber price will have certain rebound momentum. Against the background of uncertain overall market sentiment, prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [5]. - **BR**: In May, upstream maintenance devices will be restarted one after another, and supply will show an upward trend later. The weak price of upstream butadiene has slightly improved the production profit of butadiene rubber, which is currently near the break - even point, and the valuation is still at a relatively low level. The demand side is affected by US tariff increases, and the expectation is poor. Once the tariffs are alleviated, the low - valued rubber price will have certain rebound momentum. The actual domestic tire demand is still poor, and the semi - steel tire operating rate continues to decline. Currently, the price of natural rubber is still higher than that of synthetic rubber, and the tire substitution demand still supports butadiene rubber. The upstream butadiene raw material price may be supported by downstream replenishment demand in the short term, but due to good production profits, high port inventory, and increasing supply pressure later, butadiene still has downward pressure later. Supply and demand are weak, but the cost side and substitute spreads still provide support, and prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [5]