Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alloy market is experiencing low - level fluctuations due to increased disturbances on the cost side [1] - For ferrosilicon, the supply is expected to remain low, demand has short - term resilience, and energy cost increases have boosted sentiment, leading to short - term low - level fluctuations [4] - For silicomanganese, supply has a slight recovery, demand weakens moderately, and supply - side news disturbances cause low - level fluctuations [4] - The trading strategies include a low - level fluctuation outlook for single - side trading, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options on rallies for options trading [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Ferrosilicon**: After the previous alloy plant overhauls ended, production increased slightly. Given the current profit level, the resumption of production is expected to be limited, and overall supply will likely stay low. Downstream steel demand has entered the off - season, but the decline is not significant. Steel mill blast furnaces had a slight resumption this week, so demand has short - term resilience. Recently, coal prices stabilized, and international crude oil prices rose significantly, increasing energy costs. As an energy - intensive product, ferrosilicon sentiment was boosted, resulting in short - term low - level fluctuations [4] - **Silicomanganese**: Supply also increased slightly, with the absolute value remaining low. The demand for rebar has entered the off - season, and the weakening is mild according to micro - data. There were multiple news disturbances on the manganese ore supply side, but data shows the supply is currently normal. Due to the low valuation of manganese ore prices, sentiment is prone to repeated disturbances, causing silicomanganese to fluctuate at a low level [4] Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Low - level fluctuations [5] - **Arbitrage**: Wait - and - see [5] - **Options**: Sell call options on rallies [5] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: According to Mysteel data, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 242.18 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.57 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) was 20,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons. The weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types (70% of the total demand) was 123,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [8] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in China was 32.69%, a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. The weekly ferrosilicon output was 97,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,800 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises in China was 36.39%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09%. The weekly silicomanganese output (99% of the supply) was 176,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons [9] - **Inventory**: In the week of June 20, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in China was 68,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,900 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises in China (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) was 205,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [10] Spot Price - Basis - The content provides price and basis data for Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi from 2021 to 2025 [13] Double - Silicon Enterprise Production Situation - The content shows the weekly output and operating rate data of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon enterprises from 2021 to 2025 [17] Steel Mill Production Situation - The content presents data on the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel output, profitability rate, and social steel inventory of 247 steel mills from 2020 to 2025 [21] Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - On June 19, 2025, the production cost of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese was 5,605 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 125 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 56.5%. The production cost of Ningxia silicomanganese was 5,689 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 259 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 20.9%. Other regions also had corresponding cost, profit, and output share data [22] Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - On June 19, 2025, the production cost of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon was 5,471 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 371 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 36.6%. The production cost of Ningxia ferrosilicon was 5,427 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 327 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 18.4%. Other regions also had corresponding cost, profit, and output share data [30] Cost of Carbon Elements and Electricity Price - The content provides price data for Fugu semi - coke small materials, Yulin steam coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 to 2025 [37][40] Hebei Representative Steel Mill Double - Silicon Steel Bidding Price - The content shows the monthly procurement prices of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B and silicomanganese 6517 from 2020 to 2025 [44] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Output - The content presents data on the cumulative and monthly output of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon from 2019 to 2025 [50][52][53] Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - The content shows data on the monthly net import of Chinese manganese ore and the monthly net export of Chinese ferrosilicon from 2012 to 2025 [57] Magnesium Metal Demand - The content provides price data for Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and cumulative production data for Shaanxi Yulin magnesium metal from 2013 to 2025 [58] Alloy Plant vs. Steel Mill Ferrosilicon Inventory - The content shows data on alloy plant ferrosilicon inventory, inventory by region, steel mill ferrosilicon inventory available days, and inventory available days by region from 2021 to 2025 [61] Alloy Plant, Steel Mill, and Port Manganese Ore Inventory - The content shows data on steel mill silicomanganese inventory available days, inventory available days by region, Tianjin Port manganese ore total inventory, and alloy plant silicomanganese inventory from 2021 to 2025 [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on June 20, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][14][22][38][47] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from June 13 - 19, 2025 shows a constant basis of - 192.4 yuan/ton, and 0.0 for 5 - 1/9 - 1/9 - 5 spreads [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Crude oil, fuel oil basis data and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented, with specific values varying from June 13 - 19, 2025. For example, the ratio of crude oil to asphalt on June 19, 2025 was 0.1484 [9] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for multiple chemicals (e.g., natural rubber, methanol, PTA) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are provided. For instance, the basis of natural rubber on June 19 was - 80 yuan/ton [10] - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1/9 - 1/9 - 5) for various chemicals are given, such as the 5 - 1 spread of natural rubber being 35 yuan/ton [10] - Inter - variety spreads (e.g., LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on June 19 was 2554 yuan/ton [10] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for black metals (e.g., rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on June 19 was 84.0 yuan/ton [15] - Inter - period spreads for rebar (5 - 1/10 - 1/10 - 5) and other black metals (e.g., 5 - 1/9 - 1/9 - 5 for iron ore) are provided [15] - Inter - variety spreads (e.g., rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on June 19 was 4.28 [15] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for non - ferrous metals (e.g., copper, aluminum, zinc) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of copper on June 19 was 460 yuan/ton [23] - LME related data (LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot, import profit and loss) for non - ferrous metals on June 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME premium of copper was 133.36 [30] 3.4.2 London Market - LME basis, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss data are presented, but specific numerical details are not fully elaborated in the summary [30][32][33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for agricultural products (e.g., soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on June 19 was - 153 yuan/ton [40] - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1/9 - 1/9 - 5) for various agricultural products are given, such as the 5 - 1 spread of soybean No.1 being 15 yuan/ton [38] - Inter - variety spreads (e.g., soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the soybean No.1/corn ratio on June 19 was 1.76 [38] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for stock index futures (e.g., CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on June 19 was 2.69 [48] - Inter - period spreads (e.g., next month - current month, current quarter - current month) for various stock index futures are provided [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on June 19, 2025, including power coal, energy - chemical products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][4][13][21][39][46] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis of power coal remained at - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy - Chemical 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis Charts**: There are basis charts for crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio chart of crude oil to asphalt, showing the relationship between spot prices and futures prices [5][6][8] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are presented, with different values and trends [9] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for multiple chemical products are provided, including natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. [9] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are given from June 12 to June 18, 2025 [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, with different values and trends [14] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of rebar (5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month) and those of iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are provided [14] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. are given from June 12 to June 18, 2025 [14] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are presented, with different values and trends [22] - **LME - related Data**: On June 18, 2025, data such as LME forward premiums/discounts, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss for non - ferrous metals are provided [29] 3.4.2 London Market - **Relevant Charts**: There are LME basis charts, Shanghai - London ratio charts, and import profit/loss charts for non - ferrous metals [31][32][33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are presented, with different values and trends [39] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for multiple agricultural products are provided, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. [37][39] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybean 1/corn, soybean 2/corn, etc. are given from June 12 to June 18, 2025 [37] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented, with different values and trends [47] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of multiple contracts (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report. It mainly provides a daily report of arbitrage data for various futures products, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. Summary by Catalog 1. Power Coal - The table shows the basis and spreads of different contract months for power coal from June 11 to June 17, 2025. The basis remains at - 192.4 yuan/ton during this period, and the spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are all 0.0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - The table presents the basis and ratio data of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from June 11 to June 17, 2025. For example, on June 17, the basis of INE crude oil is - 18.97 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt is 0.1450 [6] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of various chemical products (natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP etc.) are provided from June 11 to June 17, 2025. For instance, on June 17, the basis of natural rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, and that of methanol is 200 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads between different contract months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for various chemical products are given. For example, for natural rubber, the 5 - 1 spread is 60 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread is - 850 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 5 spread is - 910 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The spreads between different chemical products (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) are presented from June 11 to June 17, 2025. On June 17, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 2456 yuan/ton [11] 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are shown. On June 17, the basis of rebar is 119.0 yuan/ton, and that of iron ore is 92.6 yuan/ton [16] - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads between different contract months for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, for rebar, the 10 - 1 spread is 7.0 yuan/ton [16] - **Inter - commodity ratios and spreads**: The ratios (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal) and spreads (rebar - hot - rolled coil) are presented from June 11 to June 17, 2025. On June 17, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 4.26, and the rebar - hot - rolled coil spread is - 112.0 yuan/ton [16] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Domestic basis**: The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are given. On June 17, the basis of copper is 270 yuan/ton, and that of aluminum is 100 yuan/ton [24] - **LME market data**: Data including LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on June 17, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is 122.77, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.11 [30] (2) London Market - Relevant charts show the LME basis, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss trends for non - ferrous metals [32][33][34] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans (No. 1 and No. 2), soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are presented. On June 17, the basis of soybean No. 1 is - 167 yuan/ton, and that of soybean oil is 298 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads between different contract months for various agricultural products are given. For example, for soybean No. 1, the 5 - 1 spread is 8 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread is 119 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 5 spread is 111 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - commodity spreads and ratios**: The spreads (soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) and ratios (soybean No. 1/corn, soybean No. 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal) from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are presented. On June 17, the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread is 392 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio is 2.59 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are shown. On June 17, the basis of CSI 300 is 1.78, and that of SSE 50 is 3.15 [48] - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads between different contract months (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, next quarter - current month etc.) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, for CSI 300, the next month - current month spread is - 41.6 [48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of the US routes have both increased, and the freight rates from the US East and West have declined from their highs and may have peaked. The European routes have a price increase expectation in August, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the price increase in July and the peak - time and downward slope of the freight rates in 2025 [3][6]. - The geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran may affect the shipping market, but the direct impact on container transportation is relatively small [2][5][6]. - The current strategy suggestions are that the main contract fluctuates in the single - side operation, and in the arbitrage operation, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, go long on the 12 contract and short on the 10 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Analysis - **European Routes**: Multiple shipping companies have announced price increase letters for the second half of June, and some have reported shipping schedules for July. For example, HPL, CMA, and ONE have reported July shipping schedules. The MSC's price increase letter for the second half of June is 2340/3900 (previous price increase letter in the first half of June was 1920/3200) [1]. - **US Routes**: The demand for the China - US routes has increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. The freight rates have risen sharply due to the supply - demand mismatch. Currently, carriers are actively restoring capacity. The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in the remaining two weeks of June is 321,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, and 350,000 TEU in July. The freight rates in the US East and West have increased significantly in June, but there are signs of decline recently [3]. II. Geopolitical Situation Iran has sent signals to end hostilities and resume nuclear - related negotiations. It is willing to return to the negotiation table as long as the US does not join the air strikes. However, Israel has little incentive to stop attacking before further weakening Iran's nuclear facilities [2]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The capacity pressure on the European routes in June has decreased. The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - European routes in the remaining two weeks of June is about 236,500 TEU. The weekly average capacity in July is 279,400 TEU, and there are currently 5 blank sailings in July and 1 in August [4]. - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 15, 2025, 126 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.004 million TEU [7]. IV. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of June 16, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes is 91,123 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 88,628 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as 1453.60 for the EC2602 contract and 1934.30 for the EC2506 contract [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The SCFI (Shanghai - US West) freight rate is currently 4120 US dollars/FEU (the lowest this year was 1965 US dollars/FEU), and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) freight rate is 6745 US dollars/FEU (the lowest this year was 2866 US dollars/FEU). The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on June 16 was 1697.63 points [3][7]. V. Strategy - **Single - side**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, go long on the 12 contract and short on the 10 contract [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on June 16, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of different commodities such as power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to help investors understand the market situation and potential arbitrage opportunities [1][5][14][23][40][47]. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Basis and Spread Data**: From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The basis chart shows the relationship between the spot price of China's Shengli crude oil and the closing price of the active contract of INE crude oil [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: The basis chart presents the relationship between the FOB Singapore fuel oil spot price and the closing price of the active contract of fuel oil [7]. - **Chemicals**: Data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For example, on June 13, 2025, the basis of natural rubber was 25 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2368 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed different values. For example, on June 13, the basis of rebar was 101.0 yuan/ton, and that of iron ore was 94.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for different delivery months and inter - variety spreads such as screw/ore, screw/coke, etc. are presented [15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The basis data of domestic copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from June 9 to June 13, 2025 are provided. For example, on June 13, the basis of copper was 1080 yuan/ton [24]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are given [30]. Agricultural Products - **Basis, Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. are presented. For example, on June 13, 2025, the basis of soybean No.1 was - 161 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 367 yuan/ton [38][40]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Inter - period Spreads**: The basis and inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures are provided. For example, on June 13, 2025, the basis of CSI 300 index futures was 7.78 [48].

国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16650 1961 8.48 三月 16850 1990 11.07 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.91 -847.59 跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/12 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 320 230 40 -200 理论价差 497 892 1296 1699 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 5 -230 -375 -470 理论价差 214 333 453 573 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 170 55 -35 -100 理论价差 211 324 436 549 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 5 10 -5 15 理论价差 209 314 420 525 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 290 510 630 850 锡 5-1 价差 -150 理论价差 5495 期现套利跟踪 2025/06/12 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -305 15 理论价差 74 560 锌 当月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices. It is advisable to short at high prices in the medium to long term. The short - term (1 - 3 months) probability of the Guinea Axis mine remaining shut is high, but the long - term risk of permanent closure is uncertain [3]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term, with a possible short - term upward trend, but a bearish view in the medium term [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure. Short - term unilateral operations should be cautious, and positive spreads can be considered [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 2895 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.4309, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.9309 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main alumina futures contract at 3200 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main alumina futures contract at 2700 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: The Guinea Axis mine has not resumed production, and port inventory shipping is restricted. The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices [3]. - **Leveraging Factors**: The Guinea government has revoked some mining licenses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: New production capacity is being put into operation, demand has no growth, profit recovery may lead to the resumption of production by shut - down enterprises, and spot prices have fallen in some areas [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 20250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19000 - 20300 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0977, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.4114 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 20100 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 19600 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is weakening, and low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term [5]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Low inventory and continuous de - stocking, tight spot supply in East China [5][8]. - **Negative Factors**: Terminal factory orders have decreased significantly, downstream operating rates have declined slightly, and there are signs of product inventory accumulation [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 19400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 18500 - 19900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: The cost is strongly supported by tight scrap aluminum supply, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure [5]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Tight scrap aluminum supply supports costs [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Expected weakening demand and industry over - capacity [5][6]. Market Data - **Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of various aluminum and alumina contracts are provided, including Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, and alumina contracts, as well as regional price differences and basis data [7][9][13]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of aluminum and alumina, including Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, London Metal Exchange inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts, are presented [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on June 11, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to provide investors with data for potential arbitrage opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Base Difference**: From June 4 to June 10, 2025, the base difference was - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the 5 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month, and 9 - month - 5 - month spreads were all 0 [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities** - **Base Difference**: For INE crude oil on June 10, 2025, the base difference was - 14.42 yuan/ton; for fuel oil, it was 191.19 yuan/ton. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1328 [10]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP were 45, 119, 243, 144, and 609 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of natural rubber was 35 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month - 1 - month spread was - 890 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On June 10, 2025, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2294 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE - PP spread was 158 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were 126, 104, - 11.8, and 46 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For rebar, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread was 3 yuan/ton, and the 10 - month - 1 - month spread was 4 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On June 10, 2025, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.26, and the rebar/coke ratio was 2.2046 [16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market** - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 510, 160, 295, - 50, 1590, and 1390 yuan/ton respectively [24]. - **London Market** - **LME Premiums and Discounts**: On June 10, 2025, the LME premiums and discounts of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 84.10, 7.37, - 33.05, - 27.55, - 194.17, and 5.00 respectively [31]. - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 8.11, 8.09, 8.27, 8.48, 7.91, and 8.10 respectively [31]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were - 1172.72, - 1399.92, - 536.36, 313.62, - 1058.35, and - 21434.71 yuan/ton respectively [31]. Agricultural Products - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn were - 119, 0, - 51, 332, and 1 yuan/ton respectively [40]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For soybeans No.1, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread was 9 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month - 1 - month spread was 110 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On June 10, 2025, the soybean No.1/corn ratio was 1.77, and the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.56 [40]. Stock Index Futures - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 24.47, 16.40, 39.79, and 47.89 respectively [48]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For CSI 300, the next - month - current - month spread was - 38.2, and the current - quarter - current - month spread was - 67.6 [48].

热点解读:铝合金期货上涨点评 ◆ 2025年06月10日 15:00 AD2511-AL2511合约价差-535元/吨,AD2511合约价格相较 AL2511处于合理偏低位置,价差达到-800元/吨可考虑套利操作。 绝对价格方面,AD2511并不处于低估状态,做当前铝价上涨驱动力 不足,因此铝合金价格在库存增长的局面下做多动力不足。 风险提示:政策扰动、流动性风险 华泰期货 新能源&有色金属组 6月10日,铝合金期货2511合约上市首日,指导价18365元/吨, 开盘价19400元/吨,收盘于19190元/吨,涨幅4.49%,成交量 52297收,持仓量9723手。 www.htfc.com 400-628-0888 今日保太报价持稳于19400元/吨,现货市场成交价格19200元/ 吨左右,在考虑仓单质押的情况下,到11月持有成本215元/吨左右, 即目前2511合约盘面价格处于贴水状态，市场排布呈现back结构。 按照当前盘面价格,行业生产面临亏损,保值意愿较差,若盘面 价格提升至19600元/吨附近,即存在无风险套利卖交割机会,且行 业存在冶炼利润保值积极性将会提高，因此19600元/吨即偏高估。 陈思 ...