Group 1 - Wall Street investment banks are adjusting their outlook on the U.S. economy, with Goldman Sachs lowering the probability of a recession from 35% to 30% over the next twelve months [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. from 1% to 1.25% for this year, indicating cautious optimism about the economy's resilience [1] - A key factor in this shift is the significant reduction in tariff policy uncertainty, supported by recent progress in U.S.-China negotiations [4] Group 2 - The VIX index, which measures market fear, has decreased by 18% from its April peak, and dollar financing costs have fallen to a three-month low, indicating a stabilization in the financial environment [4] - Recent inflation data shows that the U.S. CPI growth in May was below expectations, suggesting that the impact of previous tariffs on consumer prices has been weaker than anticipated [4] - The U.S. job market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims rising to 1.95 million, but non-farm payrolls continue to show positive growth [7] Group 3 - Corporate capital expenditures are recovering, with the U.S. manufacturing PMI new orders index expanding for three consecutive months [7] - Retail sales in the U.S. are maintaining a month-on-month growth rate of 0.4%, reflecting consumer resilience [7] - The U.S. housing market is showing unexpected recovery, with new housing starts increasing by 5.7% month-on-month, the highest growth rate of the year [7] Group 4 - Despite short-term pressures easing, inflation risks remain, with concerns that new tariff policies could lead to a resurgence in CPI in the coming months [10] - The increase in import costs due to tariffs on machinery and chemical products is expected to raise intermediate goods prices, while the reshoring of manufacturing may lead to higher domestic production costs [10] - The super core inflation, which excludes housing, remains high at 4.8%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target, influencing Goldman Sachs' decision to maintain a 30% recession probability [10] Group 5 - Market indicators suggest a potential soft landing for the U.S. economy, as evidenced by the end of a three-week inverted yield curve [10] - However, business leaders remain cautious, with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warning that the economy appears prosperous due to massive fiscal stimulus, while policy uncertainty remains a significant variable [10] - The nearing end of the corporate inventory rebuilding cycle and rising credit card default rates indicate that the economic endurance test is far from over [10]

特朗普表示，如果降息一个百分点，支付的利息就会少那么多；如果降息两个百分点，利息就会支付得 更少。我们有大量的短期债务，我希望债务成本长期性地偏低。他说， 降低2个百分点的利率每年可以 为美国节省6000亿美元，但我们没法让这个人这么做： 我们每年将花掉6000亿美元，就因为一个笨蛋坐在那里说，我现在看不出降息的理由。 特朗普补充说，如果通胀上升，他不反对美联储加息，但通胀现在是在下降，可能得被迫采取一些措 施： 我们叫他太迟先生，对吧？ 如果通胀回归，美联储完全可以再次加息。假设出现了通胀，一年后你再加息。我不介意，加息吧， 我完全支持。到时候我会打电话给你。不过他到时候也会太迟了。 但通胀现在是在下降，我可能得被迫采取一些强制措施。 周四，美国总统特朗普就降息问题加大力度施压美联储。他严厉批评美联储主席鲍威尔，称其为"笨 蛋"。 上周五，美国非农就业数据公布后，特朗普说，美联储的"太迟先生"是场灾难！欧洲已经降息10次， 我们一次都没有。直接降一整个百分点，火箭燃料！若通胀卷土重来，加息应对就好。 本周三，美国CPI报告公布后，特朗普说，美国消费者价格指数（CPI）最新数据表现理想，呼吁美联 储将利率下调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges facing the US dollar as a traditional safe-haven currency amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, highlighting cracks in the dollar's global dominance in the financial markets this year [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar's Performance and Market Reactions - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen approximately 8% this year, primarily due to concerns over the US economy's potential growth and the impact of Trump's trade policies [3]. - Following the news of Israel's airstrikes on Iran, the dollar initially dropped but later strengthened against most major currencies, coinciding with a 10% surge in WTI crude oil futures [1][3]. - On Thursday, the Bloomberg Dollar Index hit a three-year low, driven by fears of tariff increases and a deteriorating economic outlook for the US [1][3]. Group 2: Analysts' Insights - Analysts from Vantage Markets and the National Australia Bank express concerns that the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset is weakening due to issues related to economic stability, liquidity, and creditworthiness [1][3]. - The geopolitical implications of the Israeli attacks suggest that the US may be retreating from its leadership role, potentially allowing other nations to pursue their agendas [3][4]. - Market strategist Mark Cudmore notes that the recent dollar rebound is more related to the US's position as the largest oil producer rather than a traditional safe-haven flow [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Wall Street investment banks have increasingly adopted a bearish outlook on the dollar, citing pressures from potential interest rate cuts and slowing economic growth [3]. - Macro hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones predicts a significant depreciation of the dollar, estimating a 10% decline within a year due to anticipated rate cuts [3].

Market Overview - International gold prices rose on June 12, closing at $3,385.37 per ounce, an increase of $30.35 or 0.90% [1] - The daily high reached $3,398.86 per ounce, while the low was $3,338.29 per ounce [1] ETF Holdings - As of June 12, gold ETF holdings amounted to 937.91 tons, a decrease of 3.72 tons from the previous trading day [2] - The total value of gold ETF holdings was approximately $102.25 billion [2] Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.38% to close at 6,045.26 points, with eight out of eleven sectors increasing [2][3] - The utilities sector led the gains with an increase of 1.26%, followed by the information technology sector, which rose by 1.01% [3] Mining Companies Performance - Gold mining companies listed in the U.S. saw stock price increases, with Newmont Mining up 4.9%, Harmony Gold up 4.1%, and AngloGold Ashanti up 6.4% [3] Federal Reserve Expectations - Traders anticipate a 60% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve before September [4] - Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of a U.S. recession from 35% to 30%, citing reduced uncertainty regarding Trump's tariff policies [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a rebound after finding support at the midline and the 30-day moving average, with a bullish outlook for further increases towards targets of $3,435 and $3,500 [6]

Group 1 - The US dollar index showed a slight recovery, closing at 98.05 with a 0.20% increase after a decline of 0.78% the previous day, marking a three-year low [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 7 recorded 248,000, exceeding market expectations of 240,000, indicating potential slowing in the labor market [1][2] - The May PPI year-on-year rate was reported at 2.6%, aligning with market expectations, while the month-on-month rate was 0.1%, below the expected 0.2% [1][2] Group 2 - The US core PPI data for May fell short of expectations, with economists warning of potential price pressures in the second half of the year due to trade policies and profit margin concerns [2] - The average number of initial jobless claims over four weeks has increased, reinforcing the view that the US job market may be slowing down [2] - Goldman Sachs revised the probability of a US economic recession in the next 12 months down from 35% to 30%, citing easing financial conditions and trade policy uncertainties [3]

智通财经APP获悉，虽然美元指数交投于三年来低点，但外汇期权市场的交易员们普遍押注，这波席卷全 球储备货币的疯狂抛售将在未来几周显著趋缓——即美元抛压将迎来喘息，所谓的"抛售美国"悲观情绪也 将大幅缓和。 随着美元指数连续五个月走弱，外汇期权市场的悲观情绪在5月曾达到极端。如今距离美联储下一次利率 决议仅剩 6 天，期权市场释放出相对平静的信号。 衡量美元强弱的指数——"彭博美元现货指数"的看涨与看跌外汇期权价差的1周和1个月期限"风险逆转"指 标均在周三收于逾两个月以来的最低看跌点位。 "空头们可能还得再等一个月，才能在现实世界里看到他们预期的'美元末日图景'，"来自Spectra FX Solutions的总裁多纳利强调。"6 月份的经济数据或许会表现不错。" 美元指数在因关税担忧情绪引发的"抛售美国"交易中可谓首当其冲，今年迄今已下跌逾 8%。1周和1个月 的风险逆转指标暗示未来仍有波动，但幅度不及 4 月、5 月时的极端看跌水平。 尽管如此，期权交易员们仍倾向于支付更高溢价来布局看跌美元的期权，而不是像2022-2023年那样支付 溢价来押注美元反弹的看涨期权，不过近期看跌期权相对于看涨期权的溢价已显 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the probability of a U.S. economic recession within the next 12 months from 35% to 30%, indicating a potential reassessment of the U.S. economic outlook [1][5]. Economic Indicators - The adjustment in recession probability suggests that Goldman Sachs has identified some positive economic signals, including a stable job market, sustained consumer spending, and recovery in certain sectors [3]. - Despite the lowered recession probability, the U.S. economy still faces significant uncertainties, including global economic complexities, geopolitical tensions, and potential financial market volatility [3][5]. Market Reaction - The revised forecast may positively influence investor sentiment, potentially boosting confidence in risk assets and leading to short-term increases in stock and bond markets [4]. - There exists a divergence in market perspectives, with some economists believing the U.S. economy has passed its most challenging phase, while others caution that the recovery foundation remains fragile [4]. Policy Implications - The effectiveness of U.S. government fiscal policies and Federal Reserve monetary policies will be crucial in supporting economic recovery while avoiding excessive inflation or other risks [4][5]. - A misstep in policy coordination could elevate the risk of economic recession, despite the current positive signals from Goldman Sachs [5].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has lowered the probability of a U.S. economic recession within the next 12 months from 35% to 30% [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Economic Outlook - The adjustment in recession probability indicates a more optimistic view on the U.S. economy's near-term performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses California's potential move towards independence from the United States, emphasizing the significance of tax obligations as a symbol of sovereignty and the implications of a "tax war" initiated by California Governor Gavin Newsom against the federal government [1][3]. Group 1: Tax War Dynamics - California's proposal to stop paying federal taxes is seen as a necessary self-defense measure, with the state having a tax subsidy gap exceeding $80 billion [8]. - The federal government, under Trump, has threatened to cut financial support to California, which has already seen a reduction of $126 million in flood relief funding [6][8]. - The bipartisan support within California's legislature for Newsom's tax cessation indicates a unified stance against federal policies [8]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - Stopping tax payments could lead to severe repercussions, including intervention from the IRS, which has the authority to enforce tax laws [12]. - The economic fallout from a tax war could outweigh the potential $80 billion gain, as California relies on federal support for security and economic stability [14]. - The risk of California shifting politically from a Democratic stronghold to a Republican one adds pressure on Newsom, especially with the upcoming 2026 midterm elections [14]. Group 3: Internal Conflict and National Impact - The ongoing tensions have led to increased arrests and protests in California, suggesting a rising internal conflict that could escalate into a broader "civil war" scenario [16][20]. - The division between the two major political parties in the U.S. is deepening, with the potential for other Democratic-controlled states to experience similar unrest [20]. - The economic competitiveness of the U.S. could be severely impacted by the instability in California, particularly given its role as a hub for technology and culture [20]. Group 4: Conclusion and Future Outlook - Newsom is unlikely to pursue a full tax cessation as a means to achieve independence, recognizing California's dependence on the federal government [22]. - Continued pressure from the Trump administration could exacerbate the political and economic crises facing the U.S., potentially leading to a scenario reminiscent of the Soviet Union's collapse [22].

Core Viewpoint - Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Invest, predicts that the U.S. economy will face deflationary pressures [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience deflation, which could impact consumer spending and investment [1] - Wood emphasizes that technological advancements and productivity improvements are key factors contributing to this deflationary trend [1] Group 2: Investment Implications - The anticipated deflation may lead to a shift in investment strategies, favoring growth-oriented sectors that can thrive in a low-inflation environment [1] - Ark Invest is likely to focus on sectors such as technology and innovation, which are expected to benefit from the deflationary pressures [1]