高盛在最新发布的报告中指出，市场普遍预期美联储将于今年十二月实施降息，但后续政策路径，尤其是二零二六年的前景，则显得迷雾重重。报告认为， 尽管十二月降息二十五个基点的可能性极高，然而明年美国经济可能出现的增长加速与通胀降温，或将促使美联储调整其宽松节奏。 通胀走势是支持这一预测的重要支柱。报告分析指出，美国核心通胀压力已有所缓解，潜在通胀率已降至约百分之二。随着此前加征关税带来的价格传导效 应在明年中期逐渐消退，实际通胀率有望进一步回落。这一判断的前提是贸易政策环境保持相对稳定且金融市场不出现剧烈波动。 与相对乐观的增长和通胀展望形成对比的，是报告对美国劳动力市场更深层的担忧。尽管官方数据表现尚可，但高盛自身构建的指标显示就业增长动力可能 弱于表象。尤其值得关注的是，美国大学毕业生的就业市场出现显著降温，年轻毕业生的失业率从近期低点攀升了约百分之七十。报告提示，这种结构性疲 软可能反映了技术变革带来的效率提升等因素的影响，若持续恶化，可能对消费者支出构成压力，并增加未来货币政策进一步宽松的理由。 综合来看，高盛的报告描绘了一幅短期政策明确、中长期路径充满不确定性的图景。十二月的降息似乎已是共识下的最后一环，而 ...

12月4日，美东时间周三，高盛研究公司首席经济学家哈祖斯（Jan Hatzius）在其最新的"全球观点"报 告中写到，他们认为虽然美联储在今年12月很可能会降息，但2026年的货币政策前景则较为难以预测。 他们目前的假设是，美联储将在明年上半年放缓宽松步伐，同时美国的经济增长将重新加速且通胀将降 温。 哈祖斯提到，近期延迟发布的9月非农就业报告显示出，美国劳动力市场明显出现了降温迹象，这可能 意味着在美联储12降息25基点已经基本板上钉钉。 他补充道，下一次非农就业报告定于12月16日发布，下一次消费者价格通胀（CPI）数据将于12月18日 公布，而美联储宣布利率决议的时间是12月10日——这意味着12月降息的可能性基本不大会受到更多数 据因素的影响。 2026 年美联储预计会降息几次？ 相比于12月，美联储明年的降息前景就显得迷雾重重。高盛研究公司预测，由于关税对经济的影响减 轻、减税以及金融环境宽松等因素，美国经济在2026年将有望加速增长，增速或达到2%至2.5%。 "我们的经济学家预计，这些因素将促进就业增长，并将失业率稳定在略高于今年9月4.4%这一水平的 适度高位。" 哈祖斯预计，美联储将在明年1 ...

哈祖斯预计，美联储将在1月暂停降息周期，随后在3月和6月实施降息，从而将联邦基金利率推低 至3%-3.25%的最终水平（目前为3.75%-4%）。 通胀将如何影响美联储政策？ SHMET 网讯：尽管美联储很可能在12月降息，但2026年的货币政策前景则更难预测。高盛研究团 队的基本"工作假设"是，随着经济增长重新加速且通胀降温，政策制定者将在明年上半年放缓宽松步 伐。 高盛研究团队首席经济学家扬·哈祖斯（Jan Hatzius）在团队最新的《全球展望》报告中写道，大幅 延迟发布的9月就业报告显示出劳动力市场降温的迹象，这可能已为联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在 12月会议上降息25个基点一锤定音。 他补充道，考虑到下一份就业报告定于12月16日发布，而下一份消费者价格通胀数据将于12月18日 公布，"日程表上几乎没有什么能阻碍12月10日的降息决定。" 2026年预计会有多少次美联储降息？ 明年的降息前景则不那么明朗。高盛研究团队预测，由于关税影响减弱，加之减税措施和更为宽松 的金融环境，美国经济增长将在2026年加速至2%-2.5%。 高盛的经济学家预计，这些因素将促进就业创造，并将失业率稳定在仅略高于今年 ...

今天老张带大家聊聊，美国今年的感恩节可太热闹了，不是阖家团圆的温馨戏码，反倒成了大型"翻车 现场"。 一边是特朗普高调吹的降价牛皮被戳破，一边是财政部长贝森特的奇葩辩解刷爆热搜，剧情反转比短视 频里的狗血剧还刺激。 要说这场大戏的"搞笑担当"，非财政部长贝森特莫属。作为特朗普关税战的总负责人，他最近在NBC节 目上的发言，直接让网友看傻了眼。 贝森特张口就来，说美国通胀才涨2%-3%，几乎等于没涨。 离谱辩解大赏 合着老百姓感受到的物价飞涨都是幻觉？他还说通胀只涨服务类价格，货物没涨，所以关税政策没责 任。 这话一出，超市里买牛奶、咖啡的美国人都笑了——这些日常食材明明在涨价，怎么就不算货物了？ 更绝的还在后面，他把通胀锅直接甩给民主党，没任何证据就硬扣帽子。甚至给老百姓支了个"馊主 意"：觉得物价贵？搬去共和党控制的州啊！这建议简直离谱到家，合着搬家不用花钱、不用换工作、 不用顾家人？怕不是活在真空里。 最让人跌破眼镜的是他的"关税无害论"：某样东西涨价，消费者买了就没钱买别的，其他支出减少，所 以不会通胀。 汽油价格也没达标，实际要3美元，离2.5美元的承诺还差一截。至于早餐降价14%，更是断章取义—— ...

Economic Overview - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates that economic activity remained largely unchanged across most regions, with two regions reporting slight declines and one region experiencing moderate growth during the reporting period from mid-October to November 17 [1] - The report highlights both inflationary pressures and weakening employment, but does not specify which issue poses a greater risk, leaving the Federal Reserve's decision-making for the upcoming meeting uncertain [1] Inflation Insights - Current inflation in the U.S. shows both upward pressures and mitigating factors, remaining overall manageable; the core PCE year-on-year growth is expected to decrease from 2.9% in August to 2.8% in September [2] - A significant decline in housing inflation was noted in October, with rents decreasing by 0.31% month-on-month, marking the largest monthly drop in 15 years [2] - The U.S. government has recently lowered tariffs on certain food and agricultural products to alleviate consumer pressure, which may contribute to a gradual decline in overall inflation [2] Employment Trends - Despite an increase in non-farm payrolls in September, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, with a trend of increasing unemployment observed over the past three months [3] - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20 to 24 reached 8.5%, which could disproportionately impact consumer spending due to this demographic's significant contribution to the labor force and income [3] - Layoffs have surged, with companies announcing 153,000 job cuts in October, a 175.3% increase year-on-year, and total layoffs exceeding 1,099,500 for the year, a 65% increase [3] Consumer Behavior - A K-shaped recovery is evident in the U.S. economy, with high-income consumers maintaining spending while middle and low-income consumers are cutting back [4] - Credit card spending increased by 7.5% year-on-year in Q3, but the average spending among lower-income consumers has declined after adjusting for inflation [4] - Housing affordability is at a historical low, with the median income required to purchase a new car increasing from 32.8 weeks in November 2019 to 37.4 weeks in September this year [4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The risk of weakening employment is currently viewed as greater than the risk of rising inflation, suggesting a need for continued interest rate cuts to support employment and consumer spending among lower-income groups [5] - Most Federal Reserve officials support three rate cuts within the year, with a December cut seen as a baseline scenario, despite ongoing internal disagreements [5] - If consensus is not reached, the meeting may be postponed to await additional employment and inflation data from October and November [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The raw material supply of copper concentrate remains tight, and the high price of copper ore still supports the cost of refined copper. The supply of refined copper may converge due to the tight supply of copper ore and the concentrated maintenance of some smelters. The downstream demand is still weak as the downstream开工率 only slightly rebounds after the decline in October, and the downstream is cautious due to high copper prices. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreasing implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,893.50 dollars/ton, up 75.50 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 204,728 hands, up 5,146 hands. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are - 22,921 hands, up 4,551 hands. The LME copper inventory is 156,575 tons, up 825 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 5,625 tons, up 100 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 39,825 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,655 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,745 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 31.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 65 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 9.52 dollars/ton, down 15.36 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,990 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 77,690 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 59,290 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 million pieces, down 194,236.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.36%, down 2.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 19.38%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 11.69%, down 0.0045; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.17, down 0.0042 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Data Bureau launched the first batch of 12 state - owned enterprise data resource development and utilization pilots, covering traditional and emerging fields. The National Data Bureau will support data exchange and trading service system construction. In October, the national power market trading volume was 563.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. From January to October, the cumulative power market trading volume was 5,492 billion kWh, accounting for 63.7% of the total social power consumption. In October, European car sales increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 1.09 million vehicles, with Tesla's new car registrations down 48%, BYD's up 195%, SAIC Group up 56%, and Toyota down 10.8%. A Fed governor said the current monetary policy hinders economic development and the US economy needs significant interest rate cuts. In September, the US PPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, the core PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, and retail sales rose 0.2% month - on - month but significantly slowed down. The China - US presidential call was initiated by the US side with a positive atmosphere [2].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Federal Reserve officials advocate for significant interest rate cuts to support the U.S. economy, arguing that current monetary policy is hindering economic growth and that there is no inflation issue to address [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Federal Reserve Governor Milan links the deterioration of the U.S. job market to the current tight monetary policy, emphasizing the need for substantial rate cuts to prevent rising unemployment [2]. - Milan believes that the Federal Reserve should quickly lower rates to neutral levels, stating that recent economic data supports a dovish stance [2][3]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly also supports a rate cut in December, citing a greater risk of job market deterioration compared to inflation rising [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. September core PPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, while retail sales rose by 0.2% month-on-month, also below forecasts [1]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have increased, with an 84.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut according to CME FedWatch [1][5]. - Major U.S. stock indices experienced a V-shaped rebound, with the Dow Jones up 1.43% and the S&P 500 up 0.91% [1]. Group 3: Future Projections and Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement a rate cut in December and anticipates two additional cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026 [6]. - Analysts suggest that the potential for a "preventive rate cut" exists due to delayed economic data releases from the government shutdown, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [6]. - Concerns about rising inflation in the coming year are noted, leading to a cautious stance on U.S. Treasury investments [6].

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September in the U.S. increased compared to August, driven by rising energy and food prices [1] - The PPI rose by 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations, while the year-over-year increase rose from 2.60% in August to 2.7% in September, also meeting market forecasts [1] - Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.1% month-over-month, below the expected 0.2%, but improved from a previous value of -0.1% [1] - Year-over-year, the core PPI rose by 2.6%, slightly lower than analysts' estimates of 2.7% [1] Price Movements - Wholesale commodity prices increased by 0.9%, with 60% of this increase attributed to rising gasoline prices [1] - Service prices remained unchanged after a decline in the previous month [1] - In the services sector, wholesale profit margins for machinery decreased, while those for food increased [1] - Costs for airline passenger services also saw an increase [1] Economic Context - The PPI data was released after a delay due to a government shutdown and provides critical insights for assessing the inflation trajectory in the U.S. [1] - The previous month's PPI had unexpectedly declined, primarily due to a drop in service category prices, but the September data indicates a return to typical growth patterns [1] - The PPI is a leading indicator for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is set to be released on December 5 [2] - Current inflation persistence contrasts with a weak labor market, leading to divided opinions within the Federal Reserve, making the PPI data significant for the upcoming monetary policy meeting in December [2]

Core Insights - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi suggests that the current economic troubles in the U.S. could have been avoided if the Trump administration had not implemented aggressive changes to trade rules and immigration policies [1] Inflation Trends - The consumer price inflation rate is nearing 3%, significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's target, with indications that inflation will continue to rise [3] - After peaking at 9% in 2022, U.S. inflation experienced a cooling period, but as of April, the annual inflation rate reversed its downward trend, reflecting a rebound [3] - The latest statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the overall consumer price index rose by 3% year-on-year in September, up from 2.3% in April, indicating a significant reversal in inflation trends within five months [3] Factors Influencing Inflation - Higher tariff barriers have increased the cost of imported goods, while strict immigration policies have led to labor shortages, compounded by a global trend towards de-globalization, all contributing to the reversal of the inflation decline [3] - Zandi predicts that U.S. inflation will rise to approximately 3.5% next year, with a long-term expectation of remaining above 3%, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's target [3] Alternative Scenarios - Zandi believes that without the increased tariffs and with a stable flow of immigration, U.S. inflation could stabilize around 2.25% by 2026, as sufficient labor supply would alleviate worker shortages and lower labor costs [4] - Lower tariff barriers would ensure smoother supply chains and help suppress the rise in import prices, while global resource allocation would further stabilize price fluctuations [4] - The Trump administration has claimed effective control over price levels but has quietly adjusted some policies, such as removing tariffs on basic food items, indirectly acknowledging the pressure on living costs [4]

Group 1 - The necessity for a rate cut in December is increasing due to signs of a slowing U.S. labor market, as stated by San Francisco Fed President Daly [1] - Daly expressed concerns that the labor market could deteriorate quickly, making it harder for the Fed to respond in a timely manner [1] - There is a division within the Fed regarding policy direction, with some officials focusing on inflation pressures while others support a rate cut [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for a December rate cut have surged to approximately 76%, up from 42% a week prior, influenced by dovish signals from multiple officials [2] - The U.S. Treasury yields have declined, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, which saw a price increase of over 1.6% [2] - Key economic indicators are set to be released this week, which may influence market recalibration of rate cut expectations [2]