美国通胀

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财信研究评美联储7月议息会议:内部分歧加大,降息或延后
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 07:55
内部分歧加大,降息或延后 美联储7月议息会议点评 全文共1918字,阅读大约需要5分钟 文 财信研究院 宏观团队 胡文艳 段雨佳 伍超明 事件:北京时间2025年7月31日凌晨,美联储公布了7月份议息会议纪要。 正文 7月美联储选择继续暂停降息,维持"适度限制性"的利率水平,源于不考虑关税影响的通胀仍高于目标、就业处于目标水 平。展望后续,9月降息不确定性较高,但年内降息窗口犹存。 鲍威尔会后发言表明,美联储是否重启降息,关键取决于两点:一是美国经济(尤其是私人部门需求)是否会超预期放 缓,进而传导至劳动力市场,导致劳动力需求显著减弱,推动失业率明显上升。二是关税对通胀的影响,会否从一次性 推升演变为持续性压力。鲍威尔会后发言认为,"更高的关税已开始更明显地反映在某些商品的价格上,但其对经济活动 和通胀的总体影响仍有待观察。一个合理的基本情况是,对通胀的影响可能是短暂的——反映价格水平的一次性变动。 但通胀影响也有可能更持久,这是一个需要评估和管理的风险",因此通胀是否持续仍需更多时间观察。但有一点值得注 意的是,下半年美国物价的适度温和回升,本身并不会成为美联储降息的掣肘,正如6月议息会议所示,尽管美联储当 ...
美联储7月维持利率不变 机构预计9月有望再度降息
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao· 2025-08-01 07:20
中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 就此,国泰海通证券认为,鲍威尔发言强调美联储独立性,态度偏"鹰",导致降息预期收窄,预计降息 预期收窄仍将对美国股债市场产生扰动。 关于9月份是否会降息的问题,鲍威尔在记者会上表示,美联储尚未就9月份货币政策作出决定,这取决 于下一次议息会议前公布的就业和通胀等数据。鲍威尔还称,6月份核心PCE可能同比上升2.7%,关税 正在推高一些商品价格,长期通胀预期与2%一致。他还指出,核心通胀中有30%或40%来自关税。 有迹象显示美国通胀压力有所升温:美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%,前值为2.4%;核心CPI同比上涨2.9%, 前值为2.8%。整体上看,消费者通胀率升至五个月新高,表明关税的影响正在显现,但也大体符合市 场预期,核心通胀甚至略低于市场预期。 此次议息会议过后,市场对美联储降息的预期明显下调。利率期货隐含的9月降息概率从70%降至 44%,年内降息次数也从1.8次降至1.4次。目前市场认为年内更有可能只降息1次。 美联储7月继续保持"按兵不动"。北京时间7月31日凌晨,美联储宣布,将联邦基金利率区间维持在 4.25%—4.50%不变,符合市场预期。这是自去年12月以来,美联 ...
9月份可能不会降息——7月FOMC会议点评
一瑜中的· 2025-08-01 05:10
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market's expectation for interest rate cuts has significantly cooled following the July FOMC meeting, with indications that a rate cut in September is unlikely [2][4][8] - The FOMC has maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, which aligns with market expectations, but internal divisions within the Fed have increased, with two members supporting a 25 basis point cut [2][15][16] - The statement regarding economic growth has softened, indicating a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, contrasting with previous assessments of robust expansion [2][16][17] Group 2 - Powell's press conference reflected a relatively neutral stance, acknowledging a slowdown in consumer spending while indicating that consumer conditions remain healthy [3][18][20] - The labor market is described as stable, with wage growth approaching sustainable long-term levels, although the unemployment rate's stability is partly due to synchronized declines in labor supply and demand [3][18][20] - Inflation dynamics have shifted, with service sector inflation decreasing while goods inflation is rising, influenced by tariffs and the gradual impact of restrictive monetary policy [3][20][21] Group 3 - Market expectations for rate cuts have decreased, with implied cuts for the year dropping from 1.848 to 1.445 times, and the probability of a September cut falling from 68% to 47% [4][21] - The dollar index has risen, and the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds has increased, reflecting a market interpretation of Powell's statements as leaning towards a hawkish stance [4][21] - The article suggests that political pressure is not a significant factor influencing the Fed's decisions, as Powell has maintained the Fed's independence despite external pressures [5][11][12]
美联储7月议息会议点评:何时降息的分歧扩大
Guolian Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-01 03:26
Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 2025 meeting, aligning with market expectations[4] - There was a notable division regarding future rate cuts, with 2 dissenting votes advocating for a 25 basis point cut[8] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 have become more uncertain, with the probability of 2 or more cuts dropping from 67% to 50%[8] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy showed resilience, with a robust job market and moderate inflation pressures, allowing the Fed to remain cautious[11] - The actual GDP growth for the first half of 2025 averaged 1.3%, slightly above the Fed's median forecast of 1.4%[21] - Inflation data for June indicated a year-on-year CPI increase of 2.7%, slightly above expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.9%[42] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, major stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% and the Nasdaq up 0.15%[15] - U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 2-year yield rising by 8 basis points and the 10-year yield by 4 basis points[31] - Most sectors in the S&P 500 declined, particularly materials, real estate, and energy, while utilities and information technology saw slight gains[35]
中银香港:预期美联储于今年第四季降息仍然是大方向
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 14:45
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.5% as expected, indicating a cautious stance on future monetary policy without providing a clear path for rate cuts [1] - The Fed's statement highlighted three key points: first, it remains highly attentive to future inflation based on trade developments; second, the annualized GDP growth for Q2 increased by 3%, showing improvement from the contraction in Q1, although overall economic growth has shown signs of slowing in the first half of the year; third, the employment market in the U.S. is still considered robust [1] - Following the meeting, market expectations for a rate cut in October decreased to 76%, with the anticipated number of rate cuts for the year falling to less than two [1] Group 2 - The statement reflects the Fed's less optimistic view on U.S. economic growth compared to earlier assessments, suggesting that if inflation rises temporarily or economic growth continues to slow, the Fed may adopt more aggressive rate-cutting measures [1] - The expectation remains that a rate cut in Q4 is still a significant possibility [1]
美联储9月降息可能性急降至四成
21世纪经济报道· 2025-07-31 13:44
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has significantly reduced expectations for a rate cut in September, with the likelihood dropping from over 65% to around 40% following Chairman Powell's comments [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged this year [1]. - For the first time in over 30 years, two Federal Reserve governors voted against the rate decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2]. - Powell indicated that it is premature to assert whether the Fed will cut rates in September, emphasizing the need for more economic data before making a decision [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The U.S. economy showed signs of slowing growth, with the Fed downgrading its previous assessment of "steady growth" and acknowledging increased risks to employment goals [7]. - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with the core CPI increasing by 2.9%, slightly below expectations [8]. - Job vacancies decreased from 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million in June, supporting the view that the labor market is gradually cooling [9]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The Fed's future monetary policy remains uncertain, heavily reliant on upcoming employment and inflation data [11]. - Powell highlighted the importance of timing in policy actions, warning against acting too late or too early in response to inflation [12]. - Analysts predict that the Fed may delay rate cuts longer than the market expects, with potential cuts occurring later in the year [12][13]. Group 4: Political and Economic Influences - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with concerns about political interference potentially impacting monetary policy decisions [14]. - Historical precedents suggest that a lack of independence can lead to detrimental economic outcomes, emphasizing the need for the Fed to maintain its autonomy [14].
美联储不降息后特朗普“暴怒”!痛斥鲍威尔“太蠢、太政治化”
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-31 13:37
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around President Trump's escalating criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, particularly after the Fed decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, ignoring Trump's repeated calls for rate cuts [1][2]. - Trump accused Powell of causing significant economic losses and criticized the Fed's management, specifically referencing a $2.5 billion renovation project of the Fed's headquarters [2]. - The recent inflation data showed that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 2.8% year-over-year, exceeding economists' expectations and indicating persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target [2]. Group 2 - The decision to keep interest rates steady has intensified the tension between the Fed and Trump, with traders reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in September to about 40% [2]. - Powell emphasized the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy, stating that inflation remains a concern and that necessary measures will be taken to control it [1][2]. - Powell indicated that the decision on whether to cut rates in the fall will depend on the accumulation of data leading up to the next meeting [3].
研客专栏 | 7月议息:看点是联储内部分歧
对冲研投· 2025-07-31 12:06
Core Viewpoint - The July FOMC meeting was characterized by a lack of suspense regarding interest rates, as a rate cut was deemed unlikely based on inflation and employment data, yet it was filled with notable developments regarding internal divisions within the Federal Reserve [3][5]. Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The July FOMC meeting revealed significant internal dissent, with two members voting against maintaining the interest rate, a rare occurrence in nearly 30 years, indicating growing divisions within the Fed regarding economic risks and political pressures [5][6]. - Powell's language regarding economic forecasts has shifted, acknowledging a slowdown in economic activity while emphasizing the importance of labor market indicators, suggesting a cautious approach to potential rate cuts [6][7]. Group 2: Trade Policy and Inflation - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has been a major concern for the Fed, with Powell indicating that without tariffs, the Fed might have already moved to cut rates further [9][12]. - Recent trade agreements have reduced tariff uncertainties, allowing the Fed to better assess inflationary pressures, with a target tariff range of 10-20% established, which is expected to mitigate inflation impacts compared to previous worst-case scenarios [12][13]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The Fed's decision-making may shift focus to economic growth if inflation remains moderate in the coming months, despite pressures from import costs and rising tariffs [15][16]. - Employment indicators will gain importance in Fed decisions, as labor market growth has slowed, influenced by both demand factors and immigration restrictions, necessitating close monitoring of unemployment rates and wage growth [16][18].
7月美联储议息会议解读:议息投票出现分歧
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-07-31 10:30
Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%[3] - Two Federal Reserve governors voted against the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut[6] - The assessment of economic conditions was downgraded to "growth of economic activity moderated" from "expand at a solid pace"[6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, with half of the new jobs contributed by the government, indicating a slowdown in private sector job growth[7] - The labor force participation rate has declined, and wage growth is slowing, suggesting a weakening labor market[11] - Consumer spending may have started to decline, with Q2 private domestic final purchases showing the lowest annualized growth rate since Q1 2023[13] Group 3: Inflation and Market Reactions - Inflation showed signs of rebounding in June, driven by rising energy and core commodity prices, while core services inflation remained stable[11] - Following the press conference, the market's expectation for a September rate cut dropped from over 60% to below 50%[14] - The uncertainty surrounding economic prospects remains high, with short-term inflation risks persisting due to tariff policies[14] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential unexpected increases in U.S. inflation, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and greater-than-expected economic downturns[15] - The overall economic outlook suggests continued slowing growth in the U.S. economy, influenced by policy and economic uncertainties[13]
美联储7月议息会议点评:降息预期下降,警惕通胀风险
Great Wall Securities· 2025-07-31 10:15
Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 29-30 meeting, with no rate cuts so far this year[1] - Market expectations for rate cuts this year have decreased from 2 times to 1 time following the meeting, aligning with the Fed's cautious stance[1] - The Fed acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, shifting from a previous optimistic outlook[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Risks - The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, reversing a -0.5% contraction in Q1, with net exports contributing positively[6] - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49% in June, indicating slight improvement but still in contraction territory[6] - The July CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.7%, with inflation expectations for the next year dropping to 4.4%[7] - Risks include financial instability, unexpected Fed policy changes, geopolitical conflicts, and potential inflation rebounds[14]