近期黄金市场热度飙升，金价（XAU/USD）连续两日吸引避险资金涌入，周二亚洲时段攀升至近两周高点的 3381 - 3382 美元区域。ETO Markets 分析认 为，市场避险情绪主导金价走势，而未来美联储决议等关键事件将决定其后续方向。 避险情绪高企，金价强势攀升 贸易政策不确定性持续 全球贸易关系虽现缓和迹象，但特朗普贸易政策反复无常，如对海外电影征收 100%关税，打击全球贸易稳定性。尽管美国可能重启谈判，但特朗普暗示本 周或达成协议却未指明国家，市场忧虑难消。 地缘冲突不断升级 地缘政治局势紧张，俄乌冲突持续升级，乌克兰无人机袭击莫斯科致三大机场关闭；周日以色列联合美军空袭也门荷台达港，以回应胡塞武装攻击。这些事 件凸显黄金避险属性，支撑金价上涨。 避险情绪主导市场 本周二开始的 FOMC 会议是影响金价的关键事件。尽管美国服务业与就业数据强劲降低短期降息预期，但若美联储暗示年内仍有降息可能，金价有望进一 步上行。 美元走势与市场反应 市场策略师指出，即便美元买盘回升，黄金仍坚挺，表明市场对地缘政治担忧远超经济数据乐观情绪。投资者在复杂环境下，更倾向于将黄金作为避险资 产。 技术面：金价面临关键阻 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock indices ended a nine-day winning streak as investors reassessed former President Trump's latest tariff comments, leading to a resurgence in risk-averse sentiment with significant increases in safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Trump's proposal to impose a 100% tariff on foreign films negatively impacted market sentiment, particularly affecting entertainment stocks such as Netflix and Paramount Global, reigniting concerns over his overall trade policy stance [2] - Recent economic data showed mixed signals, with the ISM services PMI unexpectedly rising to 51.6 in April from 50.8 in March, while employment sub-indices shrank for the second consecutive month, raising doubts about the labor market fundamentals [2][4] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is surrounded by uncertainty, especially with no substantial progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, despite both sides expressing willingness to continue dialogue [4] - Market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the May meeting, with close attention on potential rate cuts in June or July, although rising trade risks are leading to a downward adjustment in expectations for recent easing policies [4][6] - The S&P 500 index is facing key technical resistance at the 200-day moving average, which historically serves as an important market inflection point, indicating persistent bearish sentiment in the market [6]

Core Insights - The recent U.S. employment report is viewed positively, highlighting the resilience of the labor market amidst a complex economic environment [1][3] Labor Market Analysis - The employment report indicates a strong labor market characterized by resilience rather than recession, with significant non-farm job growth and a stable unemployment rate [3] - Job vacancies remain steady, and hiring has not significantly slowed despite external uncertainties, with some sectors increasing recruitment efforts [3] - The leisure and hospitality sectors continue to absorb a large workforce, supported by consumer market demand, while the tech industry is driven by innovation despite global competition [3] Economic Outlook - Despite the positive employment data, potential risks from trade policies, such as tariffs and trade negotiation uncertainties, pose challenges to the economy [4] - The manufacturing and agricultural sectors, heavily reliant on imports and exports, are particularly vulnerable to trade tensions, which could lead to profit declines and potential layoffs [4] - Overall economic indicators for early April show strong fundamentals, including stable consumer confidence and retail sales growth, but the future economic outlook remains uncertain due to global economic slowdowns and trade policy risks [4] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach until there are clear signs of labor market weakness [5] - Current strong labor market performance reduces the urgency for the Fed to implement rate cuts or other easing measures [5] - The impact of trade policies on the economy remains unclear, and premature actions by the Fed could exacerbate market uncertainties [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a consolidated revenue increase of 11% year over year, with adjusted EBITDAre rising by 15% and AFFO per fully diluted share increasing by 28% [16][17]. - Hospitality segment achieved record first quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDAre, driven by RevPAR and total RevPAR growth of 109% [18]. - ADR reached a first quarter record of $264, up nearly 6% compared to the previous year [18]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Hospitality segment's revenue and adjusted EBITDAre were significantly boosted by a strong performance in both group and transient segments, with outside room spending from group customers slightly exceeding expectations [19]. - The Entertainment segment generated a revenue growth of 34% year over year, with adjusted EBITDAre increasing by 35% [18]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross group room nights booked for future years increased by 10% year over year, particularly strong for 2026 and 2027, which saw increases of 133% and 135% respectively [22]. - The company noted a decline in consumer confidence but maintained strong performance in the hospitality segment, with leisure transient customers also showing a 3% year-over-year increase in demand and ADR [19][20]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on long-term value creation while managing short-term dynamics, emphasizing the importance of its diversified customer base to mitigate fluctuations during uncertain times [13][26]. - The company is actively managing its capital deployment program and has identified new growth projects, including a ten-year contract to manage the Ascend Amphitheater in Nashville [24][25]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding the near-term outlook due to economic uncertainties, particularly related to government business, but remains optimistic about long-term growth [10][12]. - The company has slightly modified its full-year guidance for hospitality RevPAR and total RevPAR, reflecting anticipated weaker group business volumes [27][28]. Other Important Information - The company ended the first quarter with $414 million in unrestricted cash and a total available liquidity of approximately $1.2 billion [31]. - Capital expenditures expectations for 2025 have been lowered to a range of $350 million to $450 million, based on updated construction timelines [34]. Q&A Session Summary Question: How short-term is the hesitancy being seen in bookings? - Management noted that while there is uncertainty, recent lead volumes showed improvement from a 50% decline in March to only 8% in April, indicating a positive trend [36][38]. Question: What are the costs that allow the company to maintain EBITDA guidance despite lower RevPAR? - The company has implemented profit improvement plans amounting to $28 million to $30 million, which have been effective in safeguarding margins [45][46]. Question: Can you elaborate on the strategy behind the acquisition of Southern Entertainment? - The acquisition is aimed at increasing the overall opportunity for live venues and enhancing the company's presence in the country music festival space [51][54]. Question: What is the government exposure across the portfolio? - The company indicated that government business is not significant across the portfolio, and stress testing showed confidence in weathering potential cancellations [95][96]. Question: How does the company plan to handle cancellations and rebooking? - Management plans to be more aggressive in collecting cancellation fees while also working with customers to find mutually beneficial solutions [103][104].

Group 1 - President Trump calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates following a stronger-than-expected April jobs report, emphasizing that consumers have been waiting for prices to drop and asserting that there is no inflation [2][4] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 177,000 non-farm jobs in April, surpassing market expectations of 133,000, although it is lower than the revised figure of 185,000 for March [2][4] - Despite previous criticisms, Trump has softened his stance towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell, stating he has no intention of firing him and expressing a desire to be respectful towards the Federal Reserve [3][4] Group 2 - The April employment growth remains strong, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%, indicating that uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies have not significantly impacted hiring plans [4][5] - The report shows a broad distribution of job growth, particularly in healthcare, while the manufacturing sector experienced layoffs, marking the most significant production decline since 2020 [5] - The Federal Reserve officials are cautious about lowering interest rates until the specific impacts of the Trump administration's policies on the economy are clearer, with expectations that the Fed will maintain the benchmark interest rate in the upcoming meeting [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to maintain its interest rate at 0.5% for the second consecutive time, citing "extremely high uncertainty" in trade policies as a significant concern for the economic and inflation outlook [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The BOJ's decision was made with a unanimous 9-0 vote, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The central bank has lowered its GDP and inflation forecasts, indicating a cautious outlook for the economy [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the impact of tariffs has made the economic and inflation outlook more challenging, with actual interest rates remaining notably low [3][10]. - The BOJ noted that while consumer spending is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, households may adopt a more defensive attitude towards spending, potentially exerting downward pressure on the economy [4]. Group 3: Trade Policy and Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is highlighted as a critical factor, with potential implications for exports and production, which may continue to show weakness [4][5]. - The BOJ expressed concerns that global logistics disruptions or supply chain restructuring could lead to increased import prices, which might suppress domestic demand [5]. Group 4: Inflation and Price Stability - The BOJ anticipates that core inflation may reach its target in the latter half of the forecast period, despite recent increases in food prices [5][10]. - The central bank is closely monitoring the effects of foreign exchange and other market fluctuations on the Japanese economy and prices [6][11]. Group 5: Future Rate Changes - The possibility of interest rate hikes within the year has shifted from "when" to "if," depending on the outcomes of ongoing tariff negotiations [7][9]. - Ueda indicated that a successful tariff agreement could serve as a significant marker for future monetary policy decisions [8].

日本经济增长可能放缓。 日本经济正在温和复苏。 日本央行行长植田和男：贸易政策带来的不确定性显著增加。 ...

智通财经5月1日电，日本央行行长植田和男表示，贸易政策带来的不确定性显著增加；日本经济增长可 能会放缓。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：贸易政策带来的不确定性显著增加。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Booking has lowered its full-year revenue forecast due to increased economic uncertainty, despite reporting a strong first-quarter performance that exceeded market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Booking's first-quarter revenue reached $4.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, surpassing market expectations [1]. - The adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter were $24.81, significantly higher than Wall Street's expectation of $17.45 [1]. - Total travel bookings, including taxes and fees, amounted to $46.7 billion, slightly above the expected $46.5 billion [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The company has revised its full-year total bookings and revenue growth expectations to "mid-to-high single digits" at constant exchange rates, down from a previous expectation of "at least 8%" [1]. - Analysts are closely monitoring the online travel sector's performance this quarter to gauge U.S. consumer confidence amid concerns over potential economic recession due to trade policies [1][2]. - Booking's CEO noted a stable level of global leisure travel demand at the beginning of the second quarter, with expected growth in bookings of 4% to 6% [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Following the earnings report, Booking's stock fell 3.2% in after-hours trading, with competitors Airbnb and Expedia also experiencing declines [2]. - The company is less susceptible to domestic macroeconomic uncertainties compared to U.S. peers, as approximately 90% of its revenue comes from international markets [2]. Group 4: Long-term Confidence - Despite warnings about the business being more susceptible to currency fluctuations, the CEO expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for the travel industry, citing the company's global presence and strong cash flow [3].