近期部分红利主题ETF资金净流入增多。事实上，Wind数据显示，从中证红利指数挂钩ETF资金申赎数 据看，自2023年以来每到12月该指数均有较为明显的资金增仓动作。 数据来自Wind 以中证红利ETF（515080）为例，Wind数据显示，2023年和2024年的12月，该ETF月度净流入额分别为 7.45亿元、11.19亿元。今年12月第一周，中证红利ETF（515080）区间累计净流入额近0.22亿元；拉长 周期看，近10日该ETF区间累计净流入额达2.71亿元。 消息面上，12月5日，国家金融监管总局发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》（下称 《通知》）。其中提到，保险公司持仓时间超过三年的沪深300指数成分股、中证红利低波动100指数成 分股的风险因子从0.3下调至0.27；保险公司持仓时间超过两年的科创板上市普通股的风险因子从0.4下 调至0.36。 据经济参考报，进入岁末年初，A股市场震荡有所加剧，板块轮动提速，市场风格切换也较为明显，资 金开始从高估值成长股流向低估值周期股及红利资产。谈及"跨年行情"，多家券商机构近期发布策略表 示，在政策预期升温、A股盈利增长加速等积极背景下，市场 ...

消息面上看，（1）证监会明确对优质机构实施差异化监管，适度放宽资本与杠杆限制，更传递出支持 资本市场长期发展的信号，或有效提振市场风险偏好。（2）金管局优化险资股票投资风险因子，下调 长期持有成分股风险权重。机构测算举预计释放千亿级别的权益加仓空间。（3）基金经理薪酬改革强 化长期考核与递延跟投机制，有望为市场长期稳定运行奠定基础。 机构指出，历史经验显示，12月中旬至次年1月中旬通常是跨年行情的重要观察窗口。这一阶段既处于 年度政策密集落地期，又恰逢经济数据披露空窗期与流动性季节性宽松的叠加阶段。12月两大重磅会议 将成为行情演绎的关键变量。若政策预期与资金面形成共振，将为行情展开提供有利条件。 外部环境来看，由于本轮调整受到了海外资金面冲击的影响，海外市场流动性环境修复将有助于A股的 进一步企稳。此外中期维度来看在中美贸易摩擦出现缓和后，中美双方都已展开中长期自主可控的产业 链安全建设，自主可控等题材将长期受益。 国泰海通证券认为，中国股市将进入跨年攻势，指数将向上迈出新台阶。12月至次年2月是中国政策、 流动性、基本面向上共振窗口期，股市将逐步展开跨年攻势，上升空间还很大。 布局跨年行情，可以选择行业均 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent inflows into dividend-themed ETFs have increased significantly, attributed to market volatility and year-end institutional strategies to lock in annual returns while reallocating to dividend assets [1][4]. Fund Inflows - The China Securities Dividend ETF (515080) saw monthly net inflows of 745 million yuan in December 2023 and 1.119 billion yuan in December 2024, indicating strong capital inflow effects [3]. - In December 2023, the cumulative net inflow for the China Securities Dividend ETF (515080) was 22 million yuan, with a total of 270 million yuan over the past 10 days [3]. Regulatory Impact - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) recently issued a notice to lower the risk factors for insurance companies, which is expected to encourage long-term investments in high-dividend stocks [5]. - Although the immediate capital release is limited, the overall direction is clear, favoring an increase in equity allocations by insurance funds [5]. Market Trends - Institutions are optimistic about a potential year-end market rally, with the dividend sector likely to attract renewed attention from funds [6]. - Historical data shows that the China Securities Dividend Index has a seasonal performance pattern, with an 80% probability of positive returns in November and a 50% probability in December since 2015 [6]. Investment Strategy - The recent policy changes are expected to enhance the allocation of insurance funds to dividend stocks, with estimates suggesting a shortfall of 0.8 to 1.6 trillion yuan in current allocations [5]. - The investment strategy for insurance funds is evolving from aggressive buying to a more selective approach, potentially expanding beyond traditional sectors like banking [5]. Future Outlook - The end of the year and the beginning of the next quarter are critical periods for insurance fund allocations, with dividend assets expected to be a focal point for long-term investments [8]. - Analysts suggest that the upcoming economic work conference could serve as a key policy window for initiating a year-end market rally [8].

2025.12. 08 国泰海通非银分析师刘欣琦表示，我国券商杠杆率显著低于国内外金融同业，除了商业模式的差异 外，监管约束也是重要方面（尤其是对于头部券商）。2025年上半年上市券商平均杠杆率3.3倍，国 泰海通、中信证券仅4.5倍、4.3倍，而同期国内银行业、高盛、大摩杠杆率分别都超过12倍。若资本 杠杆优化，有望打开券商业务发展及ROE长期成长空间。现行框架下，券商理论杠杆上限约为6倍 （优质头部实际更高），长远来看，随着两融、衍生品、跨境等资本中介业务的增长，优质头部券商 运用杠杆的能力更强，有望充分受益政策优化带来的净资产收益率（ROE）成长空间。 12月5日下午，国家金融监管总局发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》，将保险公司 持仓时间超过三年的沪深300指数成分股、中证红利低波动100指数成分股的风险因子从0.3下调至 0.27；保险公司持仓时间超过两年的科创板上市普通股的风险因子从0.4下调至0.36，降幅均为 10%。 刘欣琦表示，2025年第三季度末保险行业资金运用余额3.62万亿，假设沪深300成分股及中证红利低 波动100成分股占比60%，其中加权平均持仓时间超过三年的占比3 ...

12月5日下午，国家金融监管总局发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》，将保险公司持 仓时间超过三年的沪深300指数成分股、中证红利低波动100指数成分股的风险因子从0.3下调至0.27；保 险公司持仓时间超过两年的科创板上市普通股的风险因子从0.4下调至0.36，降幅均为10%。 刘欣琦表示，2025年第三季度末保险行业资金运用余额3.62万亿，假设沪深300成分股及中证红利低波 动100成分股占比60%，其中加权平均持仓时间超过三年的占比30%；假设科创板股票占比5%，其中加 权平均持仓时间超过两年的占比20%。根据测算，预计合计释放最低资本210亿，若全部用于增配股 票，则可带来约764亿增量资金。 "2025年12月或成为布局跨年行情的窗口期。"信达证券策略分析师李畅表示，9月以来的缩量内在原因 在于消化高换手率与部分板块交易拥挤，资金层面稳定买入力量主要来自于中长期资金和产业资本，居 民资金尚未大幅流入，年底机构趋于稳健和部分止盈资金离场拉长了缩量震荡的时间，当前缩量幅度距 离牛初低点空间不大，牛市逻辑未变，牛市中低成交量往往是买入信号。12月季节性规律大盘价值占优 概率高，短期建议关注红利 ...

由于部分基金此前已实现优厚回报(22只主动权益基金年内收益超100%，最高收益超过200%)，公募在 跨年布局上出现了明显分歧：浮盈明显的基金想保存收益平稳度过年关，前期回报不明显的基金则想再 冲一把。 11月至12月5日，不少翻倍基的净值波动已在放缓，但依然有基金在进取博弈，取得了逾10%的收益 率，年内收益突破20%。这些分歧背后，公募还要考虑比以往更为复杂的情况：年末市场流动性、风格 切换方向、海外扰动因素等。 "想把排名往上拉一拉" 根据Wind统计，截至12月5日年内回报超过100%的主动权益基金数量(均为偏股混合型基金)，达到22只 (以初始基金为统计口径，下同)。其中，永赢科技智选A回报率为202.13%，是唯一一只年内回报超过 200%的主动权益基金。紧跟其后的是中航机遇领航A，年内回报率为144.12%。恒越优势精选A、中欧 数字经济A、信澳业绩驱动A的年内回报率均在120%以上。 除科技主题产品外，22只翻倍基中还有聚焦北交所、港股、医药等领域。其中，中信建投北交所精选两 年定开A年回报率为101.96%，中银港股通医药A回报率为104.47%。此外，另有18只普通股票基金和49 只偏股混 ...

Core Insights - The expectation for a year-end rally is increasing, but public funds have different strategies for their year-end positioning, with some aiming to preserve gains while others seek to boost returns in the limited time left [2][4] Fund Performance - As of December 5, 22 actively managed equity funds have achieved over 100% returns this year, with 永赢科技智选A leading at 202.13%, followed by 中航机遇领航A at 144.12% [3] - Other high-performing funds include 恒越优选精选A, 中欧数字经济A, and 信澳业绩驱动A, all exceeding 120% returns [3] - Funds focusing on sectors like the Beijing Stock Exchange, Hong Kong stocks, and pharmaceuticals also performed well, with 中信建投北交所精选两年定开A at 101.96% and 中银港股通医药A at 104.47% [3] Year-End Strategies - The top-performing fund, 永赢科技智选A, outperformed the second by over 50 percentage points, but the competition among other high-return funds remains tight [4] - Fund managers are looking to improve rankings in the final trading days, with a focus on achieving significant year-end returns to satisfy both external and internal performance evaluations [5][6] Market Conditions - The difficulty of achieving additional year-end gains is acknowledged due to various market and liquidity factors, with a noted shift from growth to value investing [6][7] - Recent market activity has shown a decline in trading volume, indicating a transition to stock selection rather than broad market movements [6][7] Structural Changes - The market environment is more complex this year, influenced by external factors and a potential shift in risk appetite [7] - Key policy meetings in December may impact market behavior, with historical data suggesting price fluctuations around such events [7][8] - The focus for 2025 is expected to shift towards sectors like technology innovation, consumption upgrades, and high-end manufacturing, while traditional sectors lag behind [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the mixed strategies of public funds as they approach year-end, with some aiming to preserve gains while others seek to boost performance in the limited time remaining [1][3][5] - As of December 5, 22 actively managed equity funds have achieved over 100% annual returns, with the top performer, Yongying Technology Smart A, boasting a return of 202.13% [2][3] - The performance gap between the top funds is significant, with Yongying Technology Smart A outperforming the second-place fund by over 50 percentage points, indicating a competitive landscape for year-end rankings [3][4] Group 2 - The difficulty of achieving additional gains as year-end approaches is emphasized, with market volatility and liquidity concerns being key factors [5][6] - Recent market trends show a shift from high-growth stocks to a focus on valuation and profit quality, influenced by institutional investment patterns [6][7] - The upcoming policy meetings in December are expected to be critical for market movements, with historical data suggesting price fluctuations around these events [7][8] Group 3 - The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with sectors like artificial intelligence, semiconductor equipment, and lithium resources performing well, while traditional real estate and consumer sectors lag [8] - Analysts suggest that the growth trend has room for expansion, but structural shifts and increased volatility are anticipated, with a potential focus on new investment opportunities in the energy and chemical sectors [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the A-share market has shown a positive trend due to improved market sentiment and increased risk appetite, with the ChiNext Index performing the best, rising by 1.86% over the week [1] - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments is a supportive policy aimed at encouraging long-term capital to enter the market, potentially releasing over 100 billion yuan in equity investment capacity [4] - The upcoming important policy window at the end of the year is expected to guide economic work for 2026 and influence structural market trends [6] Group 2 - Historical analysis suggests that the spring market rally may begin in mid to late December 2025, driven by positive policy stances and improved liquidity conditions [10] - The adjustment period for key sectors such as gaming and technology has been sufficient, with potential for a rebound as market valuations have adjusted significantly since early November [16] - The focus on technology growth stocks is reinforced by strategic national planning, with expectations for continued strong performance in this sector due to favorable domestic conditions and global capital reallocation [18]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market is experiencing a liquidity-driven bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index having risen approximately 15% in the second half of the year, despite weak macroeconomic fundamentals [1][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of transitioning from a liquidity-driven market to a fundamentals-driven market for sustained growth above the 4000-point level on the Shanghai Composite Index [1][4] - Historical analysis shows that significant year-end rallies typically require low valuations and improved liquidity conditions, with only three instances in the past decade where no rally occurred during this period [2][4] Group 2 - The report highlights that the market is currently in a "high-cut low" phase, where large-cap stocks have outperformed small-cap stocks, and this trend is expected to continue until a new main theme emerges [3][4] - It is noted that the performance of cyclical value stocks is expected to be strong leading into the year-end, particularly in resource and financial sectors, with a historical win rate of 70% for value stocks during this period [3][4] - The report suggests that the technology sector may see a rebound in January, as historical data indicates that growth stocks tend to perform better after the Lunar New Year [3][4] Group 3 - The report discusses the structural rotation in the market, indicating that the technology sector has been focusing on high-certainty trends, particularly in AI hardware, while software applications have lagged [3][4] - It is mentioned that the current high levels of technology stock valuations may lead to increased sensitivity to negative news, suggesting a cautious approach to investing in this sector [3][4] - The report also notes that the performance of the A-share technology sector is closely tied to global trends in AI and the performance of U.S. tech stocks, highlighting the need for careful monitoring of external signals [3][4]