Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its gradual interest rate hike stance despite the recent electoral setback for Prime Minister Kishida, with officials believing that there is little need to change the current monetary policy path [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - Bank of Japan officials are closely monitoring government fiscal policy but believe that if economic forecasts are met, further increases in the benchmark interest rate are appropriate [1] - The policy committee led by Governor Kazuo Ueda is likely to keep the interest rate at 0.5% in the upcoming meeting [1] - Officials are cautious about the potential inflation risks associated with significant fiscal easing, especially as food prices, such as rice, have surged, pushing inflation rates higher than expected [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations are a factor in the decision-making process, with officials wanting to assess the impact of any agreements on inflation trends and economic outlook before proceeding with further rate hikes [1] - There is an acknowledgment among officials that inflation risks are rising, which could influence future monetary policy decisions [1]

货币政策预期分化加剧 美国关税政策的不确定性持续影响着全球金融市场。特朗普政府陆续宣布对多个国家和地区征收20%至50%的关税，涉及欧盟、墨西哥、日本、韩国等主要 贸易伙伴。这些关税措施的实施时间从原定的7月9日推迟至8月1日，为各方谈判争取了额外时间。 欧盟方面对美国的关税威胁表示强烈反对，丹麦外交大臣拉斯穆森称这些威胁"绝对不可接受"。与此同时，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩直言"不可能达成协 议"，显示出双方在贸易问题上的分歧依然巨大。这种贸易紧张局势的升级直接推动了避险需求的增长。 美国单月关税收入同比暴增301%至270亿美元，本财年首次突破千亿美元大关。这一数据反映出关税政策对全球贸易格局的深刻影响。各国被迫采取反制措 施，全球贸易链面临前所未有的压力。 在全球贸易摩擦持续升温的背景下，黄金价格表现出微幅上涨态势。近期金价突破3350美元关口，显示出避险资产在不确定性环境中的韧性。关税政策的反 复变化成为影响贵金属走势的关键因素，市场参与者密切关注各国贸易谈判进展。 关税政策扰动市场情绪 美联储货币政策走向的不确定性为黄金价格提供了额外支撑。美联储主席鲍威尔在参议院听证会上警告，关税可能导致物价一次性上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly under Chairman Powell, is under scrutiny due to political pressures, but legal and institutional frameworks provide significant protection against arbitrary dismissal [1][2]. Legal Protections for Powell - According to Morgan Stanley economist Michael Feroli, the Federal Reserve Board members can only be removed for "just cause," historically interpreted as misconduct rather than policy disagreements [2]. - The 1935 Supreme Court case Humphrey's Executor v. United States established that the President cannot dismiss independent regulatory agency heads due to political differences, which has historically protected the Federal Reserve from direct political interference [2]. - The recent Supreme Court ruling in Trump v. Wilcox further solidified the Federal Reserve's unique status, stating it is a "structurally unique quasi-private entity," thus providing additional legal safeguards for its members against arbitrary dismissal [2]. Challenges to Dismissal - Even if President Trump attempts to dismiss Powell citing "just cause," such as cost overruns on the Fed's headquarters renovation, historical precedents make it difficult to define what constitutes "just cause," potentially leading to lengthy legal battles [3]. - If Trump were to proceed with the dismissal, Powell could file a lawsuit to block the action, which might ultimately reach the Supreme Court [3]. - Analysts suggest that the Supreme Court may allow lower court injunctions to remain in effect during the case, potentially allowing Powell to complete his term [3]. Institutional Design Limits Presidential Influence - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of 12 members, which disperses decision-making power and makes it challenging for any single change in personnel to significantly alter policy direction [3]. - The seven Board members are nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate for 14-year terms, while the Chair and Vice Chair serve 4-year terms, renewable. Powell's term as a Board member lasts until January 2028, and as Chair until May 2026 [3][4]. Continuity in Monetary Policy - Even if Powell were to lose his position as Chair, he could remain on the Board until January 2028 and potentially be elected as Chair of the FOMC, maintaining a significant role in monetary policy formulation [5]. - The current term arrangements for Board members limit the President's ability to influence the composition of the Federal Reserve through normal appointments [6]. Risks of Eroding Independence - Economists generally agree that separating monetary policy from political cycles is beneficial, as politically motivated decisions can lead to inappropriate economic stimulation [7]. - Historical evidence suggests that central banks with greater political independence tend to achieve lower and more stable inflation rates [7]. - Any weakening of the Federal Reserve's independence could increase inflation risks, especially given current pressures from tariffs and rising inflation expectations [7].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, reflecting a cautious approach amid uncertainties related to Trump's policies, opting to wait for clearer signals for potential rate cuts [1][3] - The Fed's description of economic uncertainty changed from "further increasing" to "somewhat decreasing but still high," indicating a slightly more optimistic outlook while remaining vigilant [1] - Economic forecasts show a downward revision in GDP, an upward revision in unemployment rate, and an upward revision in inflation, suggesting a more complex financial landscape in the second half of the year [1][5] Group 2 - The dot plot indicates a downward adjustment in the Fed's rate cut expectations for 2026, reflecting a more cautious stance on future economic trends [3] - Fed Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks were hawkish, noting that while job growth has slowed, the unemployment rate remains low, and he anticipates significant inflationary pressures in the coming months [3] - Following the FOMC decision, U.S. Treasury yields rose while the stock market declined, with market expectations for rate cuts in September and December contrasting with the Fed's cautious outlook [3][5] Group 3 - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is considered low, with the Fed likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach due to persistent inflation risks and a slow rise in unemployment [5] - Factors such as tariffs affecting consumer prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may contribute to upward pressure on inflation [6] - Despite an upward trend in initial jobless claims, seasonal factors are likely influencing this increase, necessitating close monitoring of future jobless claims data [6]

分析师：任何关税协议都可能对欧洲经济有利 金十数据7月14日讯，Edmond de Rothschild资产管理公司在一份报告中表示，特朗普总统威胁要对欧盟 征收30%的关税，但只要贸易谈判仍在继续，任何协议都可能对欧洲经济有利。该公司称：" 任何协议 对（欧洲）经济而言都将是一个好信号，如果欧洲决定不采取报复措施，就能避免更高的通胀风 险。"这家资产管理公司还表示，这也将使欧洲央行能够推进最后一次降息。然而，该公司指出，如果 贸易不确定性持续到2026年，可能会对美国的通胀产生持久影响。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish Bias) [1] Report's Core View - The global economy maintains an upward direction, with positive factors such as the expected meeting between the US Commerce Secretary and Chinese officials, the extension of the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period in the US, strong US non - farm payroll data in June, expected Fed rate cuts in September and acceleration in 2026, expansion in manufacturing PMIs in the US and China, measures to boost corporate performance in China, multiple rate cuts by the European Central Bank, military expansion and industrial recovery in Germany [1] Summary by Related Information Important News - US President Trump issued a second wave of tariff letters to eight countries, with a 50% tariff on Brazil being the highest since the new reciprocal tariffs were announced [1] - The US stock market rebounded strongly led by technology stocks, but the Fear and Greed Index signaled "extreme greed", indicating high market risk sentiment [1] - Morgan Stanley expects no rate cuts in 2025 due to inflation risks and tariffs, while Citi expects a rate - cut cycle to start in September and continue until the policy rate drops to 3 - 3.25% [1] - Baillie Gifford believes the prospects of Chinese tech giants depend more on domestic consumer sentiment than tariff policies, as US - bound exports are less than one - tenth of China's retail sales [1] - The US Treasury auctioned $39 billion of 10 - year Treasury bonds with a winning yield of 4.362%, lower than 4.421% in June [1] - Goldman Sachs found that the probability of the US dollar depreciating when the US stock market falls is more than twice as high as in the past decade, due to factors like US policy uncertainty, global diversified investment, and fiscal risks [1] - Brazilian President Lula called an emergency meeting and warned of a response to any unilateral tariff hikes based on Brazil's economic reciprocity law [1] Global Economic Logic - The US Commerce Secretary is expected to meet Chinese officials in early August, and the US extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period to August 1st [1] - US non - farm payroll data in June was significantly better than expected, and the market anticipates Fed rate cuts in September and acceleration in 2026 [1] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand, and China's PMI production index continued to expand while the new order index resumed expansion [1] - China's comprehensive rectification of cut - throat competition is expected to boost listed company performance [1] - The European Central Bank has cut rates 8 times, Germany is expanding its military by 30%, and German industry shows signs of recovery with a 1.2% month - on - month increase in industrial output in May [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that a majority of officials believe tariffs may lead to persistent inflation risks [1] Group 1 - Most Federal Reserve officials express concerns that tariffs could contribute to ongoing inflationary pressures [1] - The discussion highlights the potential long-term impact of trade policies on the economy [1] - Officials are closely monitoring inflation trends and the effects of tariffs on consumer prices [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry dated July 9, 2025 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Core View - Trump administration extended the tariff suspension period to August 1 but added tariffs on multiple countries. The gold - buying trend of global central banks remains unchanged, and China has increased its gold reserves for 8 consecutive months. Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the second half of the year [3] Data Summary - SHFE gold and silver futures and COMEX gold price charts are presented, showing price trends from 2024 - 2025 [4] - Graphs of the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates, and between gold and the US dollar index are provided [8][9] - Charts of gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventories are shown [12][13][14] Group 3: Copper Core View - Trump's new tariff policy may exacerbate US inflation risks and put pressure on copper prices. The market is adjusting its demand expectations, and the strengthening US dollar index suppresses the non - ferrous metals sector [15] Data Summary - Copper futures prices:沪铜主力 at 78400 yuan/ton, down 1.53%;伦铜3M at 9665 dollars/ton, down 1.22% [16] - Copper spot prices: Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper at 79190 yuan/ton, down 0.76% [20] - Copper import profit and loss, concentrate TC, and scrap - refined copper price difference data are provided [24][27] - Copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory data show changes [28][29] Group 4: Aluminum Core View - Aluminum supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports prices in the short term. However, long - term prospects are bearish. Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, but short - term prices may be strong due to news and squeeze - out risks. Cast aluminum alloy is restricted by high costs and weak demand [31][32] Data Summary - Aluminum and alumina futures prices:沪铝主力 at 20515 yuan/ton, down 0.05%;氧化铝主力 at 3130 yuan/ton, up 0.64% [33][35] - Aluminum and alumina price differences and basis data are presented [39][44][46] - Aluminum and alumina inventory data show changes [53] Group 5: Zinc Core View - Zinc supply is gradually becoming looser, but inventory accumulation is slow and remains at a low level. Demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [60] Data Summary - Zinc futures prices:沪锌主力 at 22120 yuan/ton, up 0.32% [61] - Zinc spot prices: SMM 0 zinc average price at 22040 yuan/ton, down 1.03% [66] - Zinc inventory data show changes, with沪锌仓单 increasing and伦锌库存 decreasing [69] Group 6: Nickel Core View - Nickel ore prices are relatively stable, nickel iron prices are falling, stainless steel production cuts are less than expected, and anti - dumping taxes affect the market. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - to - order model. The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to macro trends [73] Data Summary - Nickel futures prices:沪镍主连 at 119140 yuan/ton, down 1% [74] - Nickel - related price and inventory data, including nickel ore, nickel pig iron, and stainless steel, are presented [80][82][89] Group 7: Tin Core View - Trump's new tariff policy may exacerbate US inflation risks. Tin's supply - demand fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on tin prices [91] Data Summary - Tin futures prices:沪锡主力 at 262890 yuan/ton, down 0.98% [92] - Tin spot prices and inventory data are provided [96][99] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The long - term supply of lithium carbonate exceeds demand, and the over - supply pressure persists [105] Data Summary - Lithium carbonate futures prices:碳酸锂期货主力 at 64400 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan from the previous day [106] - Lithium spot prices, including lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium carbonate, show changes [111] - Lithium carbonate inventory data show changes [114] Group 9: Silicon Core View - There is significant capital interference in the silicon industry, and the core contradiction is "strong expectation, weak reality." The rise in polysilicon prices drives industrial silicon prices, but the market deviates from fundamentals [116] Data Summary - Industrial silicon spot prices:华东553 at 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged [117] - Industrial silicon futures prices:工业硅主力 at 8140 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [119] - Polysilicon, silicon wafer, and other product prices and production, inventory data are presented [128][134][140]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has decided to maintain interest rates despite discussions among some members about the potential benefits of further monetary policy easing in July to support economic recovery, citing increased uncertainty and recent inflation risks [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - Some members of the RBNZ emphasized that implementing further monetary policy easing in July could provide a safeguard to ensure the recovery of economic activity [1] Economic Conditions - The decision to maintain interest rates is influenced by rising uncertainty and recent inflation risks, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amidst fluctuating economic conditions [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand advocates for maintaining the official cash rate unchanged, highlighting a high level of uncertainty [1] - Recent inflation risks have been noted, suggesting that waiting until August may provide benefits [1]