Core Viewpoint - The stock private equity positions have significantly increased for two consecutive weeks, indicating a sustained optimistic sentiment in the market [1] Group 1: Private Equity Position Index - As of November 21, 2025, the stock private equity position index reached 82.97%, marking a substantial increase of 1.84% from the previous week and setting a new high for the year, as well as a 185-week high [1] - The index has maintained a level above 80% for four consecutive weeks, suggesting that recent market adjustments have not caused panic among private equity firms, but rather provided an opportunity for increased positions [1] Group 2: Position Distribution Among Private Equity Firms - The proportion of fully invested private equity firms has risen to 68.99%, while the shares of medium, low, and empty positions have decreased to 18.56%, 8.56%, and 3.89% respectively, indicating a clear trend of increasing investment among private equity firms [3] - Among different scales of private equity firms, those with over 10 billion in assets show the most pronounced optimism, with all scales reporting position indices above 80% [3] Group 3: Recent Trends in Private Equity Positions - The position index for private equity firms with over 100 billion has increased to 89.23%, up from 87.07% the previous week, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [4] - The fully invested ratio for large private equity firms has reached 78.19%, with declines in medium, low, and empty positions [5] Group 4: Drivers of Increased Positions - The increase in positions among private equity firms is driven by three main factors: ongoing policy support improving market sentiment, year-end performance rankings prompting firms to increase positions, and positive expectations for economic recovery and structural opportunities in the coming year [7]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after initial declines, with significant support at 3856 points for the Shanghai Composite Index. Key sectors such as energy metals, automotive, optical electronics, and chemical products performed well, while traditional sectors like traditional Chinese medicine, banking, gaming, and insurance lagged behind [2][3][7]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are currently at 15.91 times and 47.73 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][13]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 15,979 billion, which is above the median trading volume of the past three years, indicating robust market activity [3][13]. - The market is expected to stabilize around the 4000-point mark for the Shanghai Composite Index, with a continued rebalancing of market styles anticipated, allowing for alternating performances between cyclical and technology sectors. Investors are advised to maintain reasonable positions and avoid impulsive trading [3][13]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On November 28, the A-share market showed a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3888.60 points, up 0.34%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.70% [7][8]. - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, particularly in sectors like energy metals, shipbuilding, fertilizers, and cement, while sectors such as traditional Chinese medicine, banking, and gaming faced declines [7][9]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the upcoming important meeting, which will set the economic policy for the next year, could act as a catalyst for a new market rally. Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors such as automotive, energy metals, optical electronics, and power grid equipment for short-term investment opportunities [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the Chinese stock market, indicating potential for a long-term bull market driven by structural factors in both the asset and funding sides [2][3][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the long-term bull market in the Chinese stock market requires a combination of asset-side and funding-side factors, with globalization enhancing both aspects [3][18]. - It highlights that despite a decline in economic growth rates, stable profit growth and elevated valuation levels can sustain a bull market, drawing parallels with historical experiences from developed countries [15][22]. - The report identifies key drivers for the A-share market's upward momentum, including growth potential, high-quality overseas expansion, and improvements in corporate governance [4][5][6][7]. Summary by Sections Growth Potential - The report discusses the transition towards a more efficient economy, driven by innovation and research, as the financial cycle shifts downwards [4][24]. - It notes that China's R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP has reached 2.6%, aligning with developed countries, and highlights the increasing complexity of the economy [25][30]. High-Quality Overseas Expansion - The report states that China is actively expanding through trade and investment, with high-tech and high-growth companies increasingly exposed to international markets [5][33]. - It mentions that the share of overseas revenue for specialized and innovative companies has risen significantly, indicating a shift towards global markets [35][39]. Corporate Governance Improvements - The report outlines various policies aimed at enhancing corporate governance, increasing transparency, and encouraging dividend payouts, which are expected to improve overall market returns [6][43]. - It highlights that the contribution of dividends to total returns in the A-share market has been low but is improving due to recent reforms [48][49]. Global Long-Term Funding - The report emphasizes the importance of stable long-term funding, particularly from insurance and pension funds, in supporting the bull market [7][57]. - It notes that global capital rebalancing may lead to increased foreign investment in the Chinese market, enhancing liquidity and valuation [61][63].

Core Insights - The report indicates a potential breakthrough in the market for the upcoming week, as surveyed participants express varied sentiments regarding their investment strategies and market risks [1] Group 1: Position Changes - 22% of respondents increased their positions, while 19% reduced their holdings, and 6% completely liquidated their positions; the remaining 53% maintained their current positions [1] Group 2: Market Risk Assessment - 54% of respondents perceive the A-share market as having medium risk, 15% view it as high risk, and 24% consider it low risk [1] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The technology sector has seen a significant increase in positive sentiment, rising by 13 percentage points to 47%, making it the most favored sector for the upcoming week; in contrast, the military and new energy sectors have experienced declines in positive outlooks, dropping by 5 percentage points and 4 percentage points to 12% and 4% respectively [1]

三大利空集体来袭，A股承压？踏空者或因此避险，散户如何应对 2025年的A股市场真是让散户朋友们捏了把汗，刚熬过年初的震荡调整，最近盘面又变得沉甸甸的——指数上攻乏力，热门 板块轮流跳水，手里的股票不涨反跌，没入场的踏空者更是不敢轻易出手。打开财经新闻，各种利空消息似乎凑到了一 起：行业监管政策收紧、宏观经济数据不及预期、市场资金面承压，三重压力叠加让A股蒙上阴影。不少散户疑惑：这到底 是短期回调的"纸老虎"，还是新一轮下跌的信号？踏空者该趁机避险，还是抄底入场？持有股票的又该如何守住收益、避 开雷区？ 今天就聊聊2025年官方实锤的几大核心利空，再给散户们送上接地气的应对攻略，所有信息都有权威来源，绝不瞎忽悠。 一、行业监管"亮红灯"：两大板块迎政策收紧，利空落地 2025年下半年，监管层针对重点行业的调控政策密集出台，直接击中部分板块的核心逻辑，成为A股局部承压的重要原因。 房地产板块首当其冲。2025年11月15日，住建部发布《关于进一步规范房地产开发企业融资行为的通知》，明确要求房企 融资杠杆率不得超过50%，同时加强预售资金监管，严禁挪用预售款。紧接着11月20日，多地跟进暂停第三套及以上住房 商业 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market has not yet confirmed stabilization, with a recommendation to maintain low positions and wait patiently for better market conditions [1][5]. - The market experienced a technical rebound last week, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.64%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.40%, and the CSI 500 index by 3.14%, indicating a recovery after a significant drop [3]. - The fundamental outlook shows that while short-term liquidity risks in the U.S. have eased, China's economy remains in a low-level oscillation, with the latest December official PMI indicating only a slight rebound [4]. Group 2 - Despite the rebound in the A-share market, there is a lack of new capital entering the market, with both institutional and retail investors remaining cautious [5]. - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a low position due to the ongoing low-level oscillation in the market and the lack of strong signals for a significant upward trend [5]. - For the small and medium-sized market capitalization sector, although there was a rebound, it is advised to remain cautious and maintain low positions, as the main board is expected to outperform in terms of market style [5].

Core Insights - The latest report from the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association indicates that the private fund industry has reached a record high of 22.05 trillion yuan as of October 2025, surpassing the previous peak of 20.81 trillion yuan in September 2023 [1][3]. Private Fund Scale - As of October 2025, there are 19,367 registered private fund managers managing 137,905 funds with a total scale of 22.05 trillion yuan. This includes 7,592 managers of private securities investment funds, 11,594 managers of private equity and venture capital funds, 6 managers of private asset allocation funds, and 175 managers of other private investment funds [2]. Highlights of Growth - The significant growth in private fund scale is attributed to two main factors: 1. The private securities investment fund sector has seen its scale exceed 7 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 7.01 trillion yuan, with new registrations in October amounting to 429.20 billion yuan, accounting for over 60% of all new registrations [4]. 2. Other types of funds, including private equity and venture capital funds, have also experienced steady growth, with their scales reaching 11.18 trillion yuan and 3.56 trillion yuan respectively, contributing to the overall increase in private fund scale [4]. Stock Private Fund Positioning - As of November 14, 2025, the stock private fund positioning index has risen to 81.13%, marking a significant increase of 1.05 percentage points from the previous week. This is the highest level in nearly 112 weeks, driven by an increase in the willingness of medium-position private funds to increase their holdings [5]. Factors Driving Increased Positions - The rise in private fund positions is driven by three main factors: 1. The continuous upward trend in the A-share market since August has improved the performance of private fund products, boosting institutional confidence in increasing positions [6]. 2. Ongoing positive signals from policy levels regarding the long-term healthy development of the capital market, alongside a clear trend of residents shifting assets towards equity markets [6]. 3. Large private funds, as industry benchmarks, are more willing to concentrate their investments in sectors like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, capturing structural opportunities [6]. Outlook on A-shares - Investment firms like Dongshuiquan express optimism about the future of A-shares, noting the increasing importance of the capital market in wealth allocation and a strategic shift in national policy towards the capital market. Expectations for a long-term bull market in A-shares are growing, with a shift in market pricing logic from valuation-driven to fundamental-driven [7]. Market Dynamics - The current market dynamics indicate that while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have seen a rebound in valuations, there is no systemic bubble. The capital market may experience temporary disturbances, but a systemic downturn is unlikely. Focus is shifting towards sectors with structural growth potential that can maintain profitability without relying on overall economic recovery [7].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a general decline in November, with the major indices falling due to overseas expectation fluctuations and a decrease in market risk appetite. The Kweichow Moutai index saw the largest drop of 7.1%, while the Shanghai 50 index had the smallest decline of 1.3%. The performance across industries showed significant differentiation, with the comprehensive, banking, and media sectors leading in gains [4] Group 2 - Ideal Automotive reported a total revenue of 27.36 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 36.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.5%. The gross margin also fell by 5.2 percentage points year-on-year and 3.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 16.3%. The company recorded a Non-GAAP net loss of 360 million yuan, marking its first quarterly Non-GAAP loss since 2023. The decline in performance was attributed to lower-than-expected sales and recall provisions [5] Group 3 - Pony.ai achieved a total revenue of 25.44 million USD in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 72% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19%. The gross margin improved by 9 percentage points year-on-year and 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 18%. However, the Non-GAAP net loss widened by 33% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter to 54.72 million USD [6]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.28」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2512 | 1.75 | 0.14 | 4505.8 | | | IH2512 | 0.57 | -0.05 | 2963.2 | | | IC2512 | 3.02 | 0.95 | 6874.2 | | | IM2512 | 3.46 | 0.95 | 7260.8 | | 现货 | 指数名称 | | | 收盘价 | | | 沪深300 | 1.64 | 0.25 | 4526.66 | | | 上证50 | 0.47 | -0.09 | 2969.62 | | | 中证500 | 3.14 | 1.15 | 7031.55 | ...

本文转载已获得原作者授权，文章观点仅代表作者观点，不代表本公众号立场，不构成投资建议。 11月市场突出一个"震荡"，对于刚刚"跑步进场"的新朋友来说并不太友好，接下来我们如何应对？ 01 短期波动，不改中长期趋势 A股今年以来一直都是波动中上涨，面对波动，可以保持镇定。 从估值数据来看，即使在经历了上涨后，A股在全球主流股票指数中，估值水平仍然是偏低的。 并且，政策面来看，一边是大量政策正在生效。支持产业发展的"反内卷"等政策仍然在持续发力，直接带动部分企业盈利水平提升，9月单月更是同比增 长高达21.6%，创阶段新高。 另一边，新的支持经济发展等政策仍然加码制定。尤其是"十五五"规划即将落地，明年可能会迎来新的政策密集出台窗口期。 所以，短期波动，难以改变中长期向好的趋势。 02 总之，对于A股中长期可以乐观，同时，也要提前做好配置策略以把握接下来的机会！ 风险提示：基金有风险，投资须谨慎。基金不同于银行储蓄等固定收益预期的金融工具，且不同类型的基金风险收益情况不同，投资人既可能分享基金投 资所产生的收益，也可能承担基金投资所带来的损失。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一 ...