行情回顾： 国际黄金周一（12月15日）高位回落维持震荡走势，开盘价4300.23美元/盎司，最高价4350.23美元/盎司，最低 价4292.01美元/盎司，收盘价4318.19美元/盎司。 米兰表示，他预计随着租金涨幅从新冠疫情期间的峰值回落至正常水平，住房通胀将会缓解。他认为，由于劳 动力市场降温，服务业通胀不太可能面临上行压力。一些服务业通胀的驱动因素，例如投资组合管理费，反映 的是统计上的异常现象，而不是消费者实际感受到的价格变化。谈到劳动力市场，米兰表示："经验表明，劳 动力市场恶化可能发生得很快，而且是非线性的，并且难以逆转。""部分原因是货币政策存在几个季度的滞后 效应，因此，正如我所主张的，更快地放松政策将适当地使我们更接近中性立场。" 美联储威廉姆斯表示，美联储上周降息的决定是正确的，但下一步行动尚难判断。威廉姆斯在新泽西州泽西市 的一场活动上对记者表示："我非常支持我们做出的决定"，即把美联储基准利率下调25个基点。展望1月27日 至28日的政策会议，他表示："我们将等待并收集所有相关数据"，目前"还为时过早，无法判断下一次货币政 策决定该怎么做"。通过缩表，美联储已基本上将银行准备金水 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Stocks are expected to have a medium - to long - term upward trend, with a short - term outlook of volatile operation; bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper should be reduced on rallies and replenished when the price stabilizes at a low level; aluminum requires more observation; nickel is recommended to be observed or shorted on rallies; tin is for range trading; silver should be held in long positions with caution in opening new positions; gold is for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement [1][10][12][17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, and soda ash are recommended for temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [1][21][22][23]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement; PTA is expected to move upward in a volatile manner; apples and jujubes are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [1][30][32][33]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to be shorted on rallies for near - term contracts and bullish cautiously for far - term contracts; eggs have limited upside potential; corn should be chased with caution in the short term and hedged on rallies; soybean meal is for range trading, with a stronger view for near - term contracts and a weaker view for far - term contracts; oils are recommended to be shorted with caution [1][34][37][40]. Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own fundamentals and external factors. For example, the macro - financial market is affected by central bank policies and economic data; the black building materials market is affected by supply - demand relationships in the industry; the non - ferrous metals market is affected by global economic trends and supply - demand in the mining industry; the energy and chemicals market is affected by raw material prices and downstream demand; the cotton and textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand and domestic consumption; the agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by breeding cycles and supply - demand in the food market [5][7][10]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stocks**: Influenced by factors such as Fed policies, domestic economic data, and technological developments, the market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a medium - to long - term upward trend. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Bonds**: Affected by central bank policies and regulatory measures, the market is expected to trade sideways. The key lies in the actual buying power of year - end allocation funds and the guidance from important meetings [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: In a game between bearish realities and marginal support, it is recommended for short - term trading [7]. - **Rebar**: With low valuation and weak drivers, it is expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement and suitable for range trading [7]. - **Glass**: With high inventory, weak demand, and increasing supply expectations, it is expected to be in a low - level weak movement before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to be shorted on rallies [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supported by macro - easing expectations and long - term ore shortages, but with short - term over - rise risks, it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies and replenish when the price stabilizes at a low level [10]. - **Aluminum**: With factors such as changes in ore prices, production capacity adjustments, and weakening demand, it is recommended to reduce long positions or observe [12]. - **Nickel**: With an expected increase in supply and an oversupply pattern, it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15]. - **Tin**: With tight supply and weak downstream consumption, it is recommended for range trading, and attention should be paid to supply and demand changes [17]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by Fed policies and economic data, they are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement. Silver is recommended to hold long positions with caution in opening new positions, and gold is for range trading [17][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply disruptions and strong demand, it is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement, and attention should be paid to mine developments [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, weak demand, and low valuation, it is expected to be in a low - level sideways movement and suitable for range trading [21]. - **Caustic Soda**: With high inventory and uncertain supply - demand changes, it is recommended for temporary observation [22]. - **Styrene**: Affected by factors such as oil blending and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [23]. - **Rubber**: Affected by supply shortages and inventory changes, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [23]. - **Urea**: With sufficient supply and stable demand and supply, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [25]. - **Methanol**: With supply recovery, high - level but fluctuating downstream demand, and inventory reduction, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [26]. - **Polyolefins**: With strong supply and weak demand, it is expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement. PE is expected to be in a range - bound movement, and PP is expected to be in a relatively weak movement [28]. - **Soda Ash**: With supply overcapacity and cost support, it is recommended for temporary observation [30]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by global supply - demand and domestic sales, they are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement [30]. - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to move upward in a volatile manner [32]. - **Apples and Jujubes**: With weak demand and supply - demand relationships, they are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [32][33]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: With short - term supply pressure and long - term capacity adjustment, near - term contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies, and far - term contracts are bullish cautiously [34]. - **Eggs**: With sufficient supply and short - term balanced supply - demand, the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to long - term capacity changes [37]. - **Corn**: With short - term selling pressure and long - term demand recovery, it should be chased with caution in the short term and hedged on rallies [40]. - **Soybean Meal**: With different trends for near - and far - term contracts, it is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices for the December - January basis [40]. - **Oils**: Affected by reports and supply - demand relationships, they are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement. It is recommended to be shorted with caution for soybean and palm oils [47].

纽约联储主席约翰・威廉姆斯于本周一在新泽西州泽西市的公开活动表示在12月完成今年第三次降息后，面对 就业市场隐现的下行风险与通胀压力的边际缓解，当前货币政策已为2026年的经济运行筑牢基础。 威廉姆斯强调，联邦公开市场委员会已完成从"适度限制性"到"中性"的政策转向，这一调整的核心目标是精准 平衡通胀过高与就业疲软两大风险。 得益于财政政策的持续发力、金融市场环境的持续改善，以及人工智能领域投资的加速落地，2026年美国经济 增速有望从2025年的1.5%提升至2.25%。通胀方面，预计将在明年回落至2.5%以下，并在2027年逐步趋近美联 储设定的2%长期目标。 在演讲后的问答环节中，他进一步补充，当前的利率调整并非基于单一数据的短期反应，而是对央行双重使命 的系统性回应，旨在通过前瞻性布局，避免通胀与就业风险向极端化发展。 波士顿联储主席柯林斯，则在领英平台发布的帖子中坦言，12月支持降息是一个"艰难的选择"。"11月时，我的 分析仍倾向于维持政策稳定，但随着更多数据的披露，风险平衡出现了微妙变化。"。 美联储理事米兰则继续坚持其激进立场，在接受CNBC采访时重申，当前的政策立场仍存在过度限制性，未能 充 ...

Group 1: Company News - Tesla's market value increased by over $53 billion in one night, reaching a total of over $600 billion, with CEO Elon Musk's net worth hitting $677 billion, making him the first person to reach or exceed this milestone [2][5]. - iRobot's stock plummeted over 72% after the company filed for bankruptcy protection, planning to be taken over by its main supplier and manufacturer in China, leading to its delisting [2][5]. - Pure Data Centres, supported by Oak Tree Capital, announced plans to invest up to €1 billion in a new data center campus in Amsterdam, marking one of the largest investment commitments in the European hyperscale data center sector this year [2][5]. Group 2: Market Overview - The Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened mixed, with the Nikkei 225 index down 0.23% and the KOSPI up 0.07%, both experiencing sharp declines shortly after opening [5]. - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.09% at 48,416.56 points, the Nasdaq down 0.59% at 23,057.41 points, and the S&P 500 down 0.16% at 6,816.51 points [5]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 2.17%, with notable declines in stocks such as Baidu (down nearly 5%), Kingsoft Cloud (down over 4%), and others [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key tasks and expectations for China's economic work in the coming year, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to economic growth and stability, as outlined in the recent Central Economic Work Conference [1][2]. Economic Growth Target - The economic growth target for next year is suggested to be set between 4.5% and 5%, with a focus on pragmatic and flexible approaches to allow for macroeconomic policy adjustments [2]. - The importance of balancing qualitative improvements and quantitative growth is highlighted, acknowledging both existing challenges and long-term positive trends in the economy [2]. Price Level and Inflation - Current price levels are low, but there has been a marginal improvement, with consumer prices rising by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [3]. - Industrial producer prices have seen a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, but the rate of decline has been narrowing since August [3]. - The expectation for next year's consumer price increase is around 2%, aligning with market trends and inflation management strategies [3]. Employment Goals - The article emphasizes the strong correlation between GDP growth and urban employment, estimating that a 1% increase in economic growth can create over 2 million jobs [4]. - The target for urban employment in the coming year is projected to exceed 12 million, considering the increasing number of college graduates and the focus on employment stability [5]. - The need for high-quality employment and the enhancement of employment support policies are also discussed, aiming for comprehensive development for workers [5]. Conclusion - Setting reasonable targets for economic growth, price levels, and employment is crucial for guiding economic work in the upcoming year and managing market expectations effectively [5].

一、国际新闻 隔夜国际金融市场呈现多空交织态势，美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.09%，纳指跌0.59%，标普500 指数跌0.16%，其中特斯拉股价逆势上涨3.5%，推动马斯克身价首次达到6000亿美元，成为有史以来首 位突破该关口的富豪。 大宗商品方面，贵金属延续涨势，现货黄金突破4310美元/盎司，纽约期金突破4340美元/盎司，日内分 别上涨0.10%和0.09%；原油价格则承压下跌，WTI原油期货收跌1.08%报56.82美元/桶，布伦特原油期 货收跌0.92%报60.56美元/桶，盘中WTI原油曾短暂突破57美元/桶。 此外，高盛上调2026年铜价预测至11,400美元/吨，美国银行预计明年铝价将突破3000美元/吨，因供应 短缺预期升温。 二、国内新闻 国际市场中国概念股表现疲软，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌2.17%，多只个股跌幅显著：复朗集团跌 9.57%，能链智电跌9.52%，小牛电动跌6.92%，嘉楠科技跌6.15%，趣店跌6.25%；盘中指数一度跌超 2%，反映市场对中概股短期情绪谨慎。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 波士顿联储总裁柯林斯周一表示，通胀前景的变化使她倾向于支持美联储上周的降息决定。柯林斯在一 份声明中称："我支持上周联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点的决 定，尽管对我而言，这是一次艰难的抉择。现有信息表明风险平衡略有变化，通胀出现显著进一步上升 的情景似乎可能性有所降低。" 在美联储会议之前，柯林斯曾暗示其对通胀的担忧可能使她站在反对降息的一方。她一直持续关注通胀 水平过高及其持续时间远超美联储目标的问题。然而，柯林斯此次意外的鸽派立场并未转化为对货币政 策前景的新展望。她指出："对我而言，委员会声明中的前瞻性指引与2024年12月声明措辞保持一致至 关重要，而当时声明发布后便暂停了降息进程。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The decision by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates last week is deemed correct, but future actions remain uncertain [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points [1] - The Fed has effectively reduced bank reserves to a "sufficient" level through balance sheet reduction [1] - The Fed has restarted bond-buying operations, referred to as "reserve management purchases" [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The next policy meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, and the Fed will wait to gather all relevant data before making further decisions [1] - It is considered too early to determine the next monetary policy decision [1] - Bank reserves must increase gradually in line with bank demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decision by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates last week is deemed correct, but future actions remain uncertain [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, a decision supported by the New York Fed President Williams [1] - Williams emphasized the importance of waiting for relevant data before making further monetary policy decisions, indicating that it is too early to determine the next steps [1] Group 2: Bank Reserves and Policy Operations - The Federal Reserve has effectively reduced bank reserve levels to what is considered "adequate" through balance sheet reduction [1] - This threshold has led to the resumption of bond purchasing operations, referred to as "reserve management purchases" by the Federal Reserve [1] - Williams noted that bank reserves must increase gradually in line with bank demand [1]

智通财经APP获悉，纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，在上周降息之后，鉴于就业风险增加和通胀风 险有所减轻，货币政策已为明年做好了充分准备。 在演讲后的问答环节中，这位纽约联储主席暗示，当前的货币政策已经校准，能够应对央行主要目标中 的任何一个关键风险——无论是通胀过高还是就业市场过于疲软。 大致平衡 威廉姆斯表示："今年，我们根据数据和前景展望，以一种我们认为能很好地使这两种相互竞争的风险 大致平衡的方式下调了利率。" 他说："我们无法确切知道明年的贸易政策、通胀或经济会发生什么， 但我认为我们为此做好了充分准备。" 他发表讲话的第二天，美国劳工统计局将公布关键的就业数据，此前因政府关门导致 10 月份和 11 月份 大部分时间的数据发布被推迟。 威廉姆斯在活动结束后告诉记者，他预计这份报告将"基本符合我们所看到的情况——就业增长相对缓 慢，且劳动力市场逐渐降温的迹象"。 他补充说，现在讨论美联储明年 1 月下次政策会议的可能选项还为时过早，但他"非常支持"上周的降 息。 威廉姆斯周一在为新泽西州泽西城的一场活动准备的讲稿中提到联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)时表 示："货币政策非常关注于实现这些风险的平衡。为 ...