美联储理事米兰：数据支持FOMC（继续）降息。数据应当支持美联储加强鸽派立场，而不是降低。根 据滞后数据来制定政策是一个错误，货币政策应当向前看。让就业市场走弱是错误的做法。重申房租通 胀表明价格压力正在走弱。薪资增速已经趋于温和。美联储购买黄金与（国会山授予）它的职责范围不 符。（福克斯商业频道） ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing measures to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, including a significant increase in reverse repurchase agreements (repos) to support financial stability and credit growth [1][2]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On November 17, the PBOC will conduct an 800 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a six-month term, which is an increase of 500 billion yuan compared to the previous month [1]. - The total amount of reverse repos for November is expected to reach a net injection of 500 billion yuan, marking the highest monthly net injection since February [2]. - The PBOC has been consistently using reverse repos to inject medium-term liquidity into the market for six consecutive months [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC is expected to utilize a combination of reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to continuously inject medium-term liquidity into the market [2]. - There is a possibility of a slight increase in MLF operations to alleviate the pressure of MLF renewals, as 900 billion yuan of MLF is set to mature in November [2]. - The PBOC has also restarted open market operations for government bonds, which is another method to inject liquidity into the market [2]. Group 3: Year-End Liquidity Management - As the year-end approaches, the PBOC is likely to implement various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient market liquidity and encourage banks to increase credit issuance [3]. - There is speculation that the PBOC may implement a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts before the end of the year to release long-term liquidity and reduce financing costs [3]. - Factors influencing the potential RRR cut include external economic fluctuations, domestic economic growth dynamics, and efforts to stabilize the real estate market [3].

Core Insights - The article highlights the contrasting dynamics of the U.S. economy, showcasing the impact of Trump's tariff policies on both strategic resources and monetary policy challenges [1][3]. Tariff Policy Impact - Trump's tariff policy has significantly increased the U.S. weighted average tariff rate from 2.5% at the beginning of the year to 13.6%, representing a more than fivefold increase, effectively acting as a substantial tax hike on the U.S. economy [3]. - The tariff strategy has led to a critical situation in the global rare earth market, where the U.S. relies heavily on imports from China, accounting for over 90% of its rare earth needs [4]. Rare Earth Supply Agreements - In October, Solvay Group, a major European chemical company, announced significant agreements to supply rare earth oxides to U.S. companies, indicating a strategic move to diversify supply sources [6]. - Solvay is one of the few companies capable of competing with China in rare earth processing, having recently restarted production lines in France, although full capacity for certain rare earth elements will not be achieved until 2026 [7][9]. Supply Limitations - Despite the agreements, the supply quantities are marked as "limited," and commercial production is contingent on ongoing support from customers and the government [9]. - Solvay's raw materials will need to be sourced from countries like Australia or through recycling, and there are considerations for establishing manufacturing facilities in the U.S. due to more substantial financial support compared to Europe [9]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is facing a significant internal debate regarding interest rate policies, with differing views on the urgency of addressing inflation versus maintaining current employment levels [11][13]. - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a unique situation where critical economic data, such as CPI and employment reports, may never be released, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [15]. Inflation Concerns - A UBS report indicates that Trump's tariff policies could raise core personal consumption expenditure inflation by 0.8 percentage points by 2026, with cumulative effects potentially reaching 1.9 percentage points when considering supply chain shifts [16]. - The Fed is grappling with the dual challenge of a slowing economy that may require rate cuts and persistent inflation driven by tariffs, creating a complex environment for monetary policy [18]. Price Implications - Solvay's expansion in France is expected to result in higher production costs, with U.S. defense procurement officials noting that domestic rare earth products are priced two to three times higher than their Chinese counterparts [19]. - This price disparity is likely to be passed on to consumers, affecting the prices of various products that utilize rare earth elements, which is a scenario the Fed is keen to avoid [19].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a buyout reverse repo operation of 800 billion yuan with a six-month term, indicating a net injection of 500 billion yuan for the month of November [1] - The PBOC has been consistently using buyout reverse repo operations since October last year to address long-term funding gaps, with a total of 1.5 trillion yuan in operations planned for November [1][2] - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue using various monetary policy tools, including buyout reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2] Group 2 - In October, the PBOC maintained liquidity by implementing multiple monetary policy tools, including a restart of government bond trading, despite 900 billion yuan in MLF maturing in November [2] - The PBOC's recent monetary policy report indicates a commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy to keep social financing conditions relatively relaxed [2] - Market analysts believe that the significance of the PBOC's resumption of government bond trading lies more in its signaling rather than an immediate need for liquidity injection [2]

are getting some breaking news out of the Fed. For that, let's get to Steve Leeman. Hey, Steve. >> Hey, Carl.Yeah, timing is everything. You ask about Schmidt. We got Schmidt here, Kansas City Fed President, uh, who desented at the last meeting, saying monetary policy is modestly restrictive, and that, he says, is where it should be.He suggests in the speech he's about to give his intention to oppose additional cuts again in December. Says he mind could change, but right now, that's the way he's leaning. cu ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a significant liquidity injection through a 800 billion yuan reverse repo operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan after accounting for maturing reverse repos [1][2]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On November 17, the PBOC will conduct an 800 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a six-month term, marking a net injection of 500 billion yuan after 300 billion yuan of six-month reverse repos mature [1]. - The total net injection from reverse repos in November is expected to be 500 billion yuan, which is an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to October, indicating a continuous trend of increasing reverse repo operations for six consecutive months [1]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Government Bonds - The increase in reverse repo operations is partly due to the issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bonds aimed at resolving existing debt and boosting effective investment, leading to a significant rise in net financing of government bonds in November [2]. - The maturity of 9 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) in November may also necessitate additional liquidity support from the PBOC, with expectations of a slight increase in MLF renewals [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Framework - The PBOC has established a monthly routine for liquidity operations, including three-month reverse repos around the 5th, six-month reverse repos around the 15th, and MLF operations on the 25th, which collectively provided a net injection of 1.5 trillion yuan in the third quarter [3]. - The PBOC's monetary policy aims to maintain a moderately accommodative stance while closely monitoring changes in the global monetary policy landscape and adjusting liquidity supply accordingly [3].

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" has re-emerged, with a significant decrease in resident deposits and a corresponding increase in non-bank institution deposits, indicating a shift in financial asset allocation [2][10][47]. Financial Data Overview - In October 2025, the credit balance decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%, social financing stock fell by 0.2 percentage points to 8.5%, and M1 decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 6.2% [1][9][46]. - Resident deposits decreased by approximately 770 billion yuan, while non-bank institution deposits increased by the same amount, reflecting a "seesaw" relationship [2][10][47]. Loan and Financing Trends - Short-term financing remains dominant in corporate loans, with a 0.6 percentage point increase in short-term loans and bill financing to 10.0%, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.7% [3][19][48]. - The decline in social financing growth is primarily due to a decrease in net government bond financing, which fell by 560.2 billion yuan in October [3][23][48]. Future Outlook - The stability of social financing is expected to improve with the implementation of two fiscal policies: the full deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bond limits [4][26][49]. - These policies aim to stabilize economic operations towards the end of the year and align with early 2026 government bond issuances, creating favorable conditions for economic growth [4][26][49]. Regular Monitoring - In October, new credit totaled 220 billion yuan, a decrease of 280 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily from the residential sector [5][27][50]. - The total social financing added was 815 billion yuan, down 597 billion yuan year-on-year, largely due to declines in government bonds and RMB loans [5][32][50]. - M2 growth fell by 0.2 percentage points to 8.2%, while M1 decreased by 1 percentage point to 6.2%, with significant reductions in both resident and corporate deposits [5][38][50].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank of China announced an 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance amid recent economic downturns [2][2][2] Group 1: Central Bank Actions - On November 17, the central bank will conduct a fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendering, multi-price bidding reverse repurchase operation amounting to 800 billion yuan with a term of 6 months (182 days) [2][2] - This operation follows the maturity of 300 billion yuan in 6-month reverse repos in November, resulting in a net increase of 500 billion yuan in reverse repos, aligning with market expectations [2][2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The larger scale of reverse repos signals the central bank's commitment to using quantitative policy tools to support economic stability and growth expectations [2][2] - Analysts suggest that the central bank will continue to utilize both reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to inject medium-term liquidity into the market [2][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Alumina: Bottom - oscillating [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory data [1]. - It also presents relevant macro - news such as China's October social financing and loan data, and the end of the US government shutdown [3]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are provided, with aluminum and alloy at 1 (indicating a certain upward trend), and alumina at 0 (neutral) [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22,050, up 170 from T - 1, 420 from T - 5, 1320 from T - 22, and 1260 from T - 66 [1]. - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,886, unchanged from T - 1, up 43 from T - 5, 216 from T - 22, and 247 from T - 66 [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 295,292, up 71,494 from T - 1 [1]. Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,840, up 19 from T - 1 [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 299,017, up 31,054 from T - 1 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,340, up 95 from T - 1 and 245 from T - 5 [1]. - The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 9,674, up 3,394 from T - 1 [1]. Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 614,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from T - 1 [1]. - The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 553,200 tons, up 9,100 tons from T - 1 [1]. Alumina - The average domestic alumina price was 2,868, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 346 US dollars per ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 142, down 57 from T - 1 [1]. - The price of Baotai ADC12 was 21,100, up 100 from T - 1 [1]. Macro - news - China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap widened to 2.0 percentage points from 1.2 in the previous month [3]. - The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. The six - week shutdown was estimated to reduce Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points and cause a net loss of about 1.1 billion US dollars [3]

Group 1: Gold Market - The gold market is experiencing a super bull market, with the London gold price rising from $2,624 per ounce at the beginning of 2025 to a peak of $4,381 per ounce, representing a maximum increase of approximately 67% [1][12][16] - Key drivers of the gold bull market in 2025 include the ongoing interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, a weakening US dollar that fell below the critical support level of 100, and geopolitical uncertainties that have heightened market risk aversion [1][20][24] - For 2026, the outlook for gold remains positive due to expected continued central bank purchases, ongoing liquidity support from the end of the balance sheet reduction cycle, and high fiscal deficits under the "beautiful big plan" which may weaken fiscal discipline [1][34][41] Group 2: Copper Market - The copper market has shown strong performance, with LME copper prices increasing by 24% as of November 12, 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors such as US interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion, alongside supply disruptions [2][15] - The outlook for 2026 remains solid, with expectations of significant supply constraints from copper mines and robust demand from sectors like renewable energy and AI-related electricity needs [2][21][22] - The anticipated continuation of tariffs and the concentration of copper inventories in the US are expected to maintain price premiums for COMEX copper over LME copper [2][41] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is expected to see price increases and valuation adjustments due to rigid supply constraints and steady demand growth, with domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity nearing its limit [3][44] - The aluminum sector has begun to catch up with the overall non-ferrous metal sector after a period of relative stagnation, with aluminum prices breaking previous highs [3][42] - Strong cash flow and dividend capabilities among listed companies in the aluminum sector highlight the attractiveness of this market, with potential for further valuation increases [3][44]