日线图上，黄金价格已形成标准的"空头排列"形态，价格持续运行在5日、10日、20日、60日均线下 方，各均线依次向下发散，对价格形成层层压制。KDJ指标虽处于超卖区间，但尚未出现明显的金叉反 转信号，且J线仍在向下延伸，表明短期下跌动能尚未完全释放。布林带呈现开口向下的扩张态势，价 格沿下轨持续下行，下轨支撑位同步下移至4030附近，上轨压力则位于4150一线，布林带的扩张形态进 一步确认了短期趋势的弱势。此外，日线级别上，前期低点4000一线作为重要心理关口与技术支撑位， 其有效性将成为下周走势的关键看点。 黄金行情分析： 近期黄金价格持续承压下行，核心逻辑在于市场对美联储12月降息的预期显著降温。此前，通胀数据的 阶段性回落与经济增长的温和放缓，让市场普遍押注美联储将启动宽松周期以支撑经济，但最新公布的 美国非农就业数据超预期强劲、核心PCE物价指数仍维持在2%以上的目标区间上方，叠加美联储官员 密集释放"维持高利率以巩固通胀降温成果"的鹰派言论，彻底扭转了市场的宽松预期。降息预期的消退 直接推升美元指数与美国国债收益率走强，而黄金作为无息资产，其吸引力大幅削弱。与此同时，短期 期货交易员在价格持续下挫过 ...

Group 1 - Bitcoin has experienced its third consecutive week of decline, marking the fifth drop in the past six weeks, with a total market cap loss of over $1 trillion since October 10 [2] - Approximately 180,000 individuals faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market within the last 24 hours, totaling $680 million, with $510 million from long positions and $170 million from short positions [2] - The cumulative increase in Bitcoin's value this year has narrowed to less than 8%, suggesting a potential downturn in what was initially a record-setting year for the cryptocurrency market [2] Group 2 - The current sell-off in the cryptocurrency market is correlated with other risk assets, but the decline in cryptocurrencies is more pronounced due to their higher volatility [3] - Significant selling pressure is attributed to "whales" (holders of over 1,000 Bitcoins) and long-term holders, with approximately 815,000 Bitcoins sold in the past 30 days, the highest level since early 2024 [3] - Whales holding Bitcoin for over seven years are reportedly selling at a rate exceeding 1,000 Bitcoins per hour [3] Group 3 - Speculation regarding MicroStrategy potentially selling Bitcoin has increased, with on-chain fund movements raising concerns among market observers [4] - MicroStrategy's stock has dropped nearly 32% over the past month, with a market cap of $59 billion, while its Bitcoin holdings are valued at $62.3 billion [4] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, which has negatively impacted risk appetite in the market [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that international gold prices have declined due to weakened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1][3] - As of the close, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange was $4094.20 per ounce, representing a decrease of 2.39% [3] - Despite the recent decline, international gold prices have seen a cumulative increase of 2.10% for the week [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant rebound in the Nasdaq index driven by bottom-fishing in AI stocks like Nvidia and Oracle, with upcoming earnings reports and delayed economic data being crucial for future market direction [1][3][9]. Market Performance - The US stock market experienced a dramatic turnaround this week, with a notable technical rebound on Friday after a significant decline in the first four trading days. The Nasdaq index fell by 1.9% but ended the day up by 0.1%, marking the largest intraday reversal since April [3][10]. - The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase of less than 0.1%, while the Nasdaq declined by 0.5% and the Dow Jones rose by 0.3% [3]. Technical Indicators - The rebound in major indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 was supported by technical factors, as they bounced back after reaching their 50-day moving averages. Small-cap indices found support at their 100-day moving averages [7]. Investment Trends - There is a noticeable rotation of funds from AI stocks to more defensive sectors such as healthcare, materials, and energy. This shift indicates a potential concern regarding the sustainability of the AI stock rally [9][11]. - Companies related to OpenAI have faced significant declines, with Oracle dropping over 9% and CoreWeave plunging nearly 30% [12]. Upcoming Earnings and Economic Data - Nvidia's upcoming quarterly earnings report on November 19 is seen as a critical indicator for the future of AI trading. The implied volatility surrounding this report is at its highest level in a year, suggesting significant market expectations [9][14]. - A series of delayed economic reports, including the September employment data set to be released on November 20, will influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's December meeting [14][15]. Analyst Insights - Analysts express that a true market recovery hinges on sustained economic growth without rising inflation. The upcoming economic data will be pivotal in shaping investor sentiment and expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][15].

【导读】现货黄金、现货白银大跳水，现货黄金失守4040美元/盎司 中国基金报张舟 因美联储官员发表鹰派言论，打压12月降息预期，现货黄金、现货白银周五回吐早前涨幅，双双跳水了！ 11月15日凌晨，现货黄金失守4040美元/盎司，最低报4031.82美元/盎司。 而就在24小时内，现货黄金曾站上4210美元/盎司，一日内黄金狂泻180美元，日内跌幅超过3%。 同时，现货白银日内大跌超4%，失守51美元/盎司，现报50.517美元/盎司。 截至记者发稿，现货黄金报4082.159美元/盎司，日内跌2.13%。 美联储12月维持利率不变概率升至54.2% 消息面上，美联储官员对政策前景的表态，让市场对美联储可能不会在下一次会议上降息的担忧日益加剧。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月维持利率不变的概率大幅攀升，目前已经升至50%以上，达54.2%。 而12月份降息25个基点的概率已从一个月前的94.4%持续下降，降至45.8%。 10 12月 31 12月 96.1925 ZQZ5 60,131 204,411 2025 2025 Target Rate Probabilities for 10 12月 2025 ...

Core Insights - The recent decline of the US dollar may be reversing due to rising long-term US Treasury yields and a decrease in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - Increased volatility in the Japanese yen is anticipated due to uncertainties surrounding the domestic fiscal budget [1] Group 1: US Dollar and Treasury Yields - Demand for the recent 30-year US Treasury auction was weak, contributing to higher long-term Treasury yields, which supports the US dollar [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have decreased from 66% to 50% [1] - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a cautious stance on rate cuts, with Daly suggesting it is too early to decide on cuts and Hammack expressing concerns about persistent inflation [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Upcoming US economic indicators, particularly non-farm payroll data, are deemed increasingly important in light of the current economic context [1]

Group 1 - The report by DBS Group indicates that the recent decline of the US dollar may halt and potentially reverse due to rising long-term US Treasury yields and a cooling expectation for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The demand for the recent 30-year US Treasury auction was weak, contributing to higher long-term US Treasury yields, which supports the dollar [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have decreased from 66% to 50%, with recent comments from Fed officials showing caution regarding rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that while the USD/JPY exchange rate remains below the psychological level of 155, risks are increasing, and a sustained breach could lead to more verbal interventions from Japanese authorities [1] - Concerns regarding Japan's fiscal budget may undermine the credibility of warnings against foreign exchange interventions, with a potential for market shocks similar to the "Truss-like" incident in the UK [2] - The USD/CNH has fallen below 7.10, supported by easing US-China trade tensions and increased foreign interest in Chinese equities, although weak loan and financing data indicate ongoing economic challenges [2]

Market Overview - US stock indices opened significantly lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.78%, Nasdaq down 1.42%, and S&P 500 down 1.07% as concerns over persistent inflation led to a drop in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December falling below 50% for the first time [1] Company News - **Applied Materials**: Despite reporting Q4 earnings and Q1 guidance that exceeded expectations, the company's stock fell over 7% due to concerns that US export restrictions could lead to a $600 million revenue decrease by 2026 from its business in China [1][2] - **Google**: The company announced plans to appeal the European Commission's antitrust ruling, which included a €2.95 billion ($3.4 billion) fine. Google rejected the Commission's request to split parts of its business, stemming from a four-year investigation into its advertising practices [1][3] - **Cidara Therapeutics**: The company saw its stock surge over 105% in pre-market trading after Merck announced a cash acquisition offer of $221.50 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $9.2 billion [1][4]

随着市场对美联储12月降息的预期迅速降温，风险资产的避险情绪加剧，比特币周五跌至六个多月来的最低点，投资者从比特币ETF中撤出近9亿 美元资金。 周五，比特币一度跌至94978美元，这是自5月7日以来的最低水平。这一下跌标志着比特币可能录得连续第三周下跌，其价格已从10月初的峰值下 跌近24%。与此同时，第二大加密货币以太币也下跌1.5%，报3133.76美元。 加密货币市场的抛售与其他风险资产高度相关，但因其更高的波动性而跌幅更大。富兰克林邓普顿投资解决方案副首席投资官Max Gokhman表 示： "当前的抛售与其他风险资产完全相关，但加密货币的跌幅更大，因为其波动性更高。" 他指出，在机构参与度扩大至比特币和以太坊之外之前，加密货币对宏观风险的贝塔系数将保持高位。市场流动性也大幅收紧。据Kaiko数据，市 场深度——即市场在不发生大幅价格波动的情况下吸收大额交易的能力——已较今年高点下跌约30%。 同时，因此前美国政府停摆导致关键经济数据发布延迟，交易员正质疑美联储是否能为近期降息提供理由，这一重新评估正对市场风险较高的领 域施加新的压力。 SignalPlus合伙人Augustine Fan表示： " ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The global financial markets experienced a significant downturn on "Black Friday," with both risk and safe-haven assets declining simultaneously, including a more than 3% drop in Nvidia and a four-day decline in Tesla [1] - The cryptocurrency market saw a substantial correction, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $96,000, while gold prices dropped over 2% to below $4,100 per ounce [1] - The decline was attributed to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, a data vacuum due to the U.S. government shutdown, and concentrated selling pressure in overvalued sectors, leading to increased investor anxiety as indicated by the VIX index rising above 22 [1] Group 2: Technology Sector - Technology stocks, previously a key driver of market gains, faced significant selling pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.5% and the S&P 500 futures down 1% [2] - The adjustment in tech stocks is closely linked to shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropping from 70% to 47% [2] - Nvidia's pre-market drop of 3.11% and a cumulative market cap loss exceeding $200 billion reflect ongoing concerns about high valuations in the AI sector [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrency and Gold - Both cryptocurrencies and gold experienced rare simultaneous declines, indicating a re-evaluation of risk and safe-haven assets [3] - Bitcoin fell to $95,985.4, a nearly 3% drop from the previous close, while Ethereum saw a 10.9% decline, marking its largest single-day drop in three months [5] - Gold's decline of over 2.21% to a low of $4,059.17 per ounce was influenced by a stable U.S. dollar and perceptions of U.S. economic resilience, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5] Group 4: Economic Data and Policy Uncertainty - The U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, delaying the release of critical economic indicators such as the October CPI and employment data, which complicates Federal Reserve policy decisions [6] - The absence of sufficient data may prevent the Fed from cutting rates, contributing to increased market volatility as uncertainty looms [6]