Core Insights - IOTA celebrates its 10th anniversary alongside Ethereum, marking a decade of evolution in blockchain technology and its applications in various sectors [1][2] - The project has established itself as a significant player in decentralized infrastructure, focusing on real-world applications and partnerships with governments and enterprises [1][12] Group 1: Evolution and Current Position - IOTA has transitioned from a niche project to a key player in financial innovation, data security, and global trade digitization [1][2] - The launch of the Rebased mainnet upgrade and the TWIN digital trade infrastructure highlights IOTA's commitment to enhancing its ecosystem and real-world applications [1][5] Group 2: Ecosystem Development - IOTA's ecosystem includes diverse modules such as DeFi, RWA, NFT, GameFi, and Meme, creating a comprehensive financial service framework [6][10] - The introduction of Pools as a decentralized exchange (DEX) and Deepr as a lending platform enhances liquidity and user experience within the IOTA ecosystem [6][7] Group 3: Real-World Applications - TWIN, launched in May 2025, aims to improve global trade transparency and efficiency through decentralized data exchange [13][14] - TLIP focuses on enhancing cross-border trade logistics, particularly in Africa, by simplifying information exchange and promoting international trade [14][20] Group 4: Compliance and Global Strategy - IOTA emphasizes compliance as a critical factor for establishing trust with governments and institutions, having achieved various certifications and partnerships globally [18][19] - The project has made significant strides in the MENA region, Europe, North America, and Africa, aiming to expand its reach and influence in the blockchain space [19][20] Group 5: Technological Advancements - The Rebased mainnet upgrade introduced a dual smart contract ecosystem, enhancing IOTA's performance, security, and developer accessibility [23][24] - IOTA's network can handle over 50,000 transactions per second (TPS) with sub-second confirmation times, making it suitable for high-frequency trading [24] Group 6: Developer Engagement and Community - IOTA has launched multiple hackathons and grant programs to foster developer engagement and support innovative projects within its ecosystem [38][43] - The IOTA token ($IOTA) plays a crucial role in the ecosystem, with over 80% circulation, indicating strong liquidity and community involvement [48]

Core Concept - The article discusses the rise and significance of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, as a decentralized digital asset that operates independently of central banks and government institutions [1]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Cryptocurrencies - Cryptocurrencies are digital assets based on blockchain technology, with Bitcoin being the most representative example [1]. - Key features of cryptocurrencies include being digital, decentralized, cryptographically secure, and utilizing blockchain technology for transparent transaction records [1]. Group 2: Motivation Behind Cryptocurrency Creation - The invention of cryptocurrencies was motivated by a loss of trust in traditional financial systems, especially after the 2008 financial crisis, leading to the desire for a currency system independent of banks and governments [1]. Group 3: Bitcoin Transaction Mechanism - Bitcoin transactions differ from traditional banking as they are decentralized and rely on a distributed network rather than a central authority [3][5]. - Each Bitcoin transaction is recorded in a "block," and multiple blocks form a "blockchain," which is a shared ledger maintained by all network participants [4][5]. Group 4: Bitcoin Mining and Supply - Bitcoin is generated through a process called "mining," where miners solve complex mathematical problems to validate transactions and earn new bitcoins as rewards [6][7]. - The total supply of Bitcoin is limited, making it akin to "digital gold" [7]. Group 5: Other Cryptocurrencies and Their Functions - The success of Bitcoin has led to the emergence of various other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and Ripple, each serving different market needs [7][8][10]. - Ethereum, for instance, supports decentralized applications through its smart contract platform, expanding the use cases of blockchain technology [8][9]. Group 6: Future Trends in Cryptocurrency - Key trends in the cryptocurrency space include the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), increasing institutional adoption, technological upgrades to address energy consumption and transaction speed, and the establishment of regulatory frameworks [10][11]. - The disruptive potential of cryptocurrencies lies in their ability to reconstruct trust systems and provide individuals with financial freedom, prompting traditional finance to evolve [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - Oscillation; Coal and coke - Uptrend; Rolled steel - Oscillation; Glass - Uptrend; Soda ash - Bullish [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai 50 Index - Rebound; CSI 300 Index - Oscillation; CSI 500 Index - Oscillation; CSI 1000 Index - Oscillation; 2 - year Treasury bond - Oscillation; 5 - year Treasury bond - Oscillation; 10 - year Treasury bond - Rebound; Gold - Oscillation; Silver - Bullish operation [3][4][6] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - Correction; Log - Correction [6] - **Oil and Fat Industry**: Soybean oil - Oscillation and correction; Palm oil - Oscillation and correction; Rapeseed oil - Oscillation and correction [6] - **Feed Industry**: Soybean meal - Oscillation and correction; Rapeseed meal - Oscillation and correction; Soybean No. 2 - Oscillation and correction; Soybean No. 1 - Oscillation and correction [8] - **Agricultural Products Industry**: Live pigs - Oscillation and weakness [8] - **Soft Commodities Industry**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Wait - and - see; PTA - Wait - and - see; MEG - Wait - and - see; PR - Wait - and - see; PF - Wait - and - see [10] 2. Core Views - The black industry is affected by policies such as "anti - involution" and the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry. The short - term market sentiment is boosted, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand situation varies by product [2]. - The financial market is influenced by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the start of the full - island customs closure operation in Hainan Free Trade Port, and central bank operations. The upward momentum of the market weakens, and risk preferences decline [3][4]. - In the precious metals market, the pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies, as well as geopolitical conflicts, affect the market sentiment [4][6]. - The pulp and log markets show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to correct [6]. - The oil and fat and feed markets are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and trade agreements. After previous rises, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term [6][8]. - The live pig market is affected by factors such as temperature, slaughter enterprise procurement, and supply - demand relationship. The average transaction weight may decline slightly, and prices may also weaken [8]. - The rubber market is affected by weather, production, demand, and inventory. Prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - The polyester industry is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and cost. Most products are in a wait - and - see state [10]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipping volume increases, and the supply is still abundant. In the short term, the fundamentals are acceptable, but in the medium and long term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. It follows the trend of finished products, and attention should be paid to the support at 800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: The expectation of anti - involution policies and supply - side policies boosts market sentiment. After the second price increase, the cost of coke still has pressure, and the market's bullish expectation is enhanced. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. - **Rolled Steel (Thread Steel)**: The "anti - involution" policy stimulates supply - side sentiment, but the overall demand is weak. In the short term, it is supported by policies, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" trading may continue. The demand side has weakening real demand but strong speculative demand. The supply side has increasing production pressure. In the long term, the demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - **Soda Ash**: It is bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the real demand and supply - side trends [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market upward momentum weakens, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in stock index futures [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market interest rate is consolidating, and long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [3][4]. - **Precious Metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. In the short term, it is affected by the Fed's policies and geopolitical factors. Silver is bullish [4][6]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost price decline weakens the support for pulp prices. The paper industry has low profitability and high inventory pressure, and pulp prices are expected to correct [6]. - **Log**: The supply pressure is not large, but the anti - involution sentiment weakens, and log prices are expected to correct [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: Supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand. Although supported by the bio - diesel expectation, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term after previous rises [6]. Feed Industry - **Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2, Soybean No. 1**: Affected by factors such as US soybean production, inventory, and trade agreements, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term after previous rises [8]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Live Pigs**: The average transaction weight may decline slightly, and prices may weaken due to factors such as supply increase and demand suppression by high temperatures [8]. Soft Commodities Industry - **Rubber**: Affected by weather, production, demand, and inventory, prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: Most products in the polyester industry are affected by supply - demand and cost factors and are in a wait - and - see state [10].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of stablecoins has attracted significant investor interest, but it has also led to a resurgence of financial scams, with fraudsters exploiting the appeal of stablecoins to lure investors into traps [1][2][7] Group 1: Scam Tactics - Common scams include "fake airdrops," where fraudsters create deceptive links that mimic legitimate airdrop promotions, leading to phishing attacks [2][3] - Another prevalent scam involves impersonating investment experts, where victims are drawn into high-risk projects under the guise of low-risk, high-return opportunities [2][3] - The "Xinkangjia" scam is highlighted as a major case, involving over 200 million investors and more than 10 billion yuan in losses, showcasing the scale of such fraudulent activities [3][4] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies in various regions, including Beijing and Shenzhen, have issued warnings about the illegal activities associated with stablecoins, emphasizing that all financial activities under the guise of stablecoins are illegal in mainland China [7][8] - Despite the warnings, some investors misinterpret regulatory alerts as signs of opportunity, ignoring the associated risks [7] Group 3: Technical Challenges - The use of stablecoins, particularly USDT, complicates the tracking of fraudulent funds due to their anonymous nature and the ability to use mixing services to obscure transaction trails [4][5] - Legal experts note that while blockchain transactions can be traced, the use of mixing tools can sever the connection to the original source, making recovery of lost funds extremely difficult [5][6] Group 4: Investor Behavior - Many investors continue to engage in high-risk schemes, often referred to as "stupid games," despite previous losses, indicating a persistent belief in recovering their investments through new projects [5][6] - There is a growing concern about "secondary scams," where fraudsters exploit victims' desperation to recover losses by offering dubious recovery services [6]

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel: Stronger [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Shanghai Composite 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Stronger Sideways [4] - Silver: Stronger [4] - Pulp: Sideways Upward [6] - Logs: Sideways Upward [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways Correction [6] - Palm oil: Sideways Correction [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways Correction [6] - Soybean meal: Sideways Upward [6] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways Upward [6] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways Upward [6] - Live pigs: Sideways Weaker [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait - and - See [9] - PTA: Wait - and - See [9] - MEG: Wait - and - See [9] - PR: Wait - and - See [9] - PF: Wait - and - See [9] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including black industry products, financial futures, precious metals, agricultural products, and chemical products. It takes into account factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy expectations, cost changes, and geopolitical situations to predict the price trends of these commodities [2][4][6][9]. Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased, with subsequent supply remaining abundant. During the industrial off - season, steel production decreased, but hot metal production rose. Port inventories slightly increased. In the short - term, influenced by policies and sentiment, prices rose strongly, breaking through the previous high of 800 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Anti - involution policy expectations are fermenting, making coking coal and coke the leading varieties in the black sector. After the second price increase, coke still faces cost pressure, and the market has a stronger expectation of future price increases. With hot metal production remaining high, the coke fundamentals are healthy, and the futures prices are expected to be stronger in the short - term [2]. - **Rolled steel**: The "anti - involution" policy has boosted supply - side sentiment. Although the central urban work conference was below expectations, the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry continued to push up market sentiment. During the off - season, construction material demand declined, but steel profits were okay, and inventory pressure was not significant [2]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" trading may continue. The demand for glass deep - processing orders weakened slightly, but speculative demand was strong. Supply is expected to increase, and there is pressure on the supply side. In the long - term, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly [2]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw increases in major stock indices. Some sectors had capital inflows while others had outflows. China's economic data reflects resilience, and market risk - aversion sentiment has eased. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and Treasury bond prices are rebounding slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Influenced by factors such as the US debt problem, trade tensions, and increased Chinese physical gold demand, the logic for the current gold price increase remains valid, and it is expected to be in a stronger sideways trend [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable. The decrease in raw material prices weakens cost support. The paper industry is in a low - profit state, and demand is in the off - season. Affected by the anti - involution policy, pulp prices are expected to be sideways upward [6]. - **Logs**: The daily shipping volume of logs at ports has increased. The supply pressure is not large, and cost support has strengthened. Affected by the anti - involution policy, log prices are expected to be sideways upward [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in June, but inventory increased. The increase in US biodiesel production supports soybean oil demand. Domestic oil inventories are rising, and after the previous increase, prices may correct in the short - term [6]. - **Meals**: The estimated US soybean production decreased, but the increase in end - of - year inventory exceeded expectations. The good growth of US soybeans and the positive bio - fuel policy support soybean prices. Domestic soybean imports are large, and meal prices are expected to be sideways upward [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing. The average settlement price of slaughter enterprises has slightly increased, but the price is in a downward trend. With sufficient supply and weak consumption, the average price of live pigs may decline in the future [7]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rainy weather in major rubber - producing areas has affected raw material supply. The tire industry's capacity utilization rate has a structural recovery, but is restricted by market demand. Rubber inventories are in a state of adjustment, and rubber prices are expected to be in a wide - range sideways trend [9]. - **PX**: In the short - term, the PX supply - demand remains tight, and the price follows the oil price [9]. - **PTA**: The cost is volatile, the supply has increased, and downstream demand has decreased. The price follows the cost in the short - and medium - term [9]. - **MEG**: The recent arrival volume is small, and port inventories are slightly decreasing. The supply pressure has eased, and the price is in a stronger sideways trend in the short - term [9]. - **PR and PF**: Affected by the macro - environment and market sentiment, the polyester bottle - chip and polyester staple - fiber markets are expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [9].

Core Insights - The core value of issuing stablecoins for companies lies in creating an independent data and value closed loop outside the traditional banking system, allowing them to capture real-time user behavior data and financial profiles, which is crucial for optimizing business models in the AI era [1][2][3] Group 1: Stablecoin Market Development - To ensure the healthy development of the stablecoin market, two key issues must be addressed: stablecoins should not rely solely on trading for market momentum, but rather return to supporting real-world asset (RWA) values, as the vitality of stablecoins ultimately depends on their anchoring to RWA [2][3] - The tokenization of real-world assets requires a stable and efficient on-chain trading medium, with RWA creating continuous real application scenarios and rigid demand for stablecoins [2][3] Group 2: Technological Solutions - A significant challenge in asset tokenization has been the credibility of data before it is on-chain, but advancements in IoT technology have effectively addressed this issue, ensuring that data is automated and immutable from the moment of collection [2] - The concept of "multi-centralization" has emerged as a way to navigate the complexities of decentralized technologies while still integrating with traditional centralized systems [3] Group 3: Market Activity and Innovation - The stablecoin market needs to maintain activity and circulation, with decentralized finance (DeFi) playing a crucial role in this process, potentially allowing for credit creation even if stablecoins are not permitted as collateral [4] - Innovative solutions are anticipated to emerge to enhance the functionality and acceptance of stablecoins within the financial ecosystem [4]

首先，感谢杨老师的邀请。我从事区块链技术多年，对这些技术和应用场景有一定了解。然而，我一直 没有时间将这些知识系统化。几周前，我有机会花了几天时间深入了解这一领域，今天我希望与大家分 享这些思考。 7月18日晚，复旦大学经济学院举办《稳定币的商业机遇：来自业界的声音》国际金融政策圆桌会。会 上，上海特高信息技术有限公司董事长崔建军抛出了一个问题：为什么京东等企业有强烈的意愿去发行 稳定币？稳定币的发行机构的盈利模式是什么？ 对此，崔建军认为，公众普遍认为的"赚取储备资产的利息差"仅仅是冰山一角。对于企业而言，发行稳 定币的最核心价值，在于构建一个独立于传统银行体系之外的数据与价值闭环。这使得企业能够直接捕 获最真实、最完整的用户行为数据和金融画像。在人工智能时代，这些高维度的实时数据是训练和优化 商业模型的"黄金燃料"，其战略价值远远超过了短期利差收益。 结合他多年在区块链技术的实践经历，崔建军认为，从长远来看，稳定币和RWA将对全球货币和金融 体系带来重大变革，这种变革的重要性不亚于人工智能的发展。尽管短期内面临诸多挑战，如监管问题 等。"虽然这条路很长，但其中的机会是存在的"，崔建军说道。 崔建军强调，要 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant surge in Hong Kong's stablecoin concept stocks, driven by the dual breakthroughs in global stablecoin regulatory frameworks, specifically the enactment of the U.S. GENIUS Act and the upcoming Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The U.S. GENIUS Act, signed by Trump on July 18, establishes the first national regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to hold 100% legal reserves and undergo regular audits by the Federal Reserve, while prohibiting the payment of explicit interest [2]. - Concurrently, Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation, published on May 30, mandates that issuers must obtain approval from the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and store reserve assets in licensed banks [2]. Group 2: Company Developments - Yunfeng Financial, as the first Hong Kong stock to explicitly engage in Web 3.0, is extending its strategy into real-world assets (RWA), digital currencies, and ESG zero-carbon assets, complementing its insurance technology ecosystem with XBIT's decentralized exchange technology [5]. - Huajian Medical has established a U.S. subsidiary, IVDGROUP INC., to initiate a stablecoin license application, aiming to create the world's first compliant trading platform for innovative medical drugs using RWA [5]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - XBIT's decentralized trading platform has gained attention due to three major technological breakthroughs: a smart contract auditing system ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements, a cross-chain clearing network enabling seamless conversion between major stablecoins and fiat currencies, and a decentralized reserve proof system providing quarterly on-chain asset audit reports [6]. - On July 19, XBIT's daily stablecoin trading volume exceeded $1.5 billion, with institutional clients accounting for 68% of the transactions [6]. Group 4: Industry Applications - Huajian Medical's strategy exemplifies the integration of medical innovation assets with stablecoins, attracting both traditional medical capital and crypto-native funds [8]. - A New York importer successfully completed a cross-border transaction using USDC through XBIT, demonstrating a cost reduction to 1.8% of traditional wire transfer fees and a significant decrease in transaction time from three days to 47 seconds [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - XBIT is prepared for potential regulatory changes regarding stablecoin capital requirements, with a modular architecture that can quickly detach compliance risk modules if regulations tighten, while also planning to connect to the Federal Reserve's instant payment system if policies become more open [10]. - The platform currently supports over 150 mainstream and emerging meme coins, utilizing an automated market maker (AMM) model with a slippage rate below 0.5%, attracting 20 million global users [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating strongly [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong operation [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [6] - Logs: Strongly oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating more [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating more [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating more [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating more [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating more [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating more [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating more [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Short at high prices [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products on July 21, 2025. It is believed that the "anti-involution" policy has boosted the sentiment of the black market, the iron ore market is temporarily stable in the short term but oversupplied in the long term, the coking coal and coke market is expected to be strong in the short term, and the steel market is affected by policies and demand and may fluctuate strongly. In the financial market, with the improvement of China's economic data and the implementation of positive policies, the stock index is expected to rise, and the bond market may be volatile. Precious metals are affected by factors such as interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank purchases and are expected to maintain high-level oscillations. In the agricultural and light industrial product markets, the prices of logs and some oils and meals are expected to be strong, while the prices of live pigs are expected to be weak. The rubber market is in a state of supply and demand adjustment and is expected to oscillate widely. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The "anti-involution" policy has boosted market sentiment, and the iron ore price has risen significantly. The end-of-season impulse of mines is basically over, and global iron ore shipments have declined to some extent. The near-term arrivals have increased month-on-month due to the previous high shipments, and the supply remains loose. In the off-season of the industry, the output of five major steel products has decreased, but the molten iron output has increased by 26,300 tons to 2.4244 million tons month-on-month, and the iron ore port inventory has slightly increased. In the long term, the supply of iron ore is expected to gradually increase, the demand will remain relatively low, and the port inventory will enter the accumulation channel, with the pattern of oversupply remaining unchanged. Due to short-term sentiment disturbances, the iron ore price has risen significantly and broken through the 750 yuan/ton mark, and it is expected to be strong [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: After the first round of price increases, the cost of coke still faces pressure, and the market's expectation of future price increases has strengthened. With the molten iron output remaining high, the current fundamentals of coke are relatively healthy, and the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. The overall operation of coking plants is stable, with smooth shipments, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase goods remains high, resulting in a slightly tight supply of spot goods. With the arrival of high temperatures and the rainy season in various regions, downstream demand has weakened, but the current profitability is still acceptable, and the overall enthusiasm for operation is good, with the molten iron output continuing to rise. Currently, steel mills' enthusiasm for purchasing coke has slightly increased. The current supply of coke spot goods is tight, and the price of upstream coking coal still has support. It is expected that the coke price will remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trends of molten iron and the supply side of coking coal and coke in the later stage [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The "anti-involution" has triggered a rise in the positive sentiment on the supply side. Although the Central Urban Work Conference did not meet expectations, the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry has continued to boost market sentiment, and the futures price has continued to rise. In the off-season, the demand for building materials has declined month-on-month. The profits of five major steel products are acceptable, and the output has declined month-on-month. The pressure on the total steel inventory is not obvious, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. In June, infrastructure was weak, real estate was stable, and exports were strong, basically in line with previous expectations. External demand exports were overdrawn in advance, and real estate investment continued to decline. Total demand is unlikely to show an anti-seasonal performance. On the basis of no increase in total annual demand, an obvious pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. In the short term, the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry has improved market sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether more policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July. Finished steel products are currently supported by the macro and policy aspects [2]. - **Glass**: The "anti-involution" trading may continue, and the Politburo meeting is approaching, with the macro situation being neutral and strong. On the demand side, the glass deep-processing orders have weakened slightly month-on-month, but the speculative demand brought by the rising futures price is relatively strong. On the supply side, the output is expected to increase after the glass produced by the previously ignited production lines comes out, and the pressure on the supply side still exists. To meet the seasonal destocking of glass, the daily melting volume needs to be reduced to below 154,000 tons. There are many disturbances in market sentiment. The inventory of glass in the middle and lower reaches is low, with room for replenishment, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in the adjustment cycle, and the year-on-year decline in the completed floor area of houses is relatively large, making it difficult for the glass demand to rebound significantly. In the short term, continuous observation is needed to see if the actual demand can improve [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.60%, the CSI 50 index rose by 0.74%, the CSI 500 index rose by 0.28%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 0.25%. Funds flowed into the basic metals and fertilizer and pesticide sectors, while funds flowed out of the electronic components and automobile parts sectors. The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held in Durban, South Africa. China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and expand high-level opening up in the second half of the year. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China, emphasizing that cooperation and win-win results are the right path. The market's risk aversion sentiment has eased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield to maturity of the 10-year Chinese government bond remained unchanged, FR007 decreased by 4 basis points, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 187.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with a net investment of 102.8 billion yuan on the day. The market interest rate is consolidating, and the Treasury bond price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Precious metals**: - **Gold**: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and the reconstruction of globalization, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The actions of central banks to purchase gold are crucial, reflecting the concentration of "decentralization" and risk aversion needs. In terms of monetary attributes, Trump's "Make America Great Again" bill has been successfully passed, which may exacerbate the US debt problem and lead to cracks in the US dollar's currency credit. In the process of de-dollarization, the de-fiat currency attribute of gold is prominent. In terms of financial attributes, in the global high-interest rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero-yield bond for bonds has weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has decreased. In terms of risk aversion attributes, although the geopolitical risk has weakened marginally, Trump's tariff policy has intensified global trade tensions, and the market's risk aversion demand remains strong, which has become an important factor in boosting the gold price in stages. In terms of commodity attributes, the demand for physical gold in China has increased significantly, and the central bank has restarted gold purchases since November last year and has increased its holdings for eight consecutive months. Currently, the logic driving the rise of the gold price has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that the Fed's interest rate policy will be more cautious this year, and the evolution of the tariff policy and geopolitical conflicts will dominate the change in market risk aversion sentiment. According to the latest US data, the non-farm payrolls data shows that the labor market is relatively resilient, with the non-farm employment population exceeding market expectations and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The PCE data in May shows that the inflation data has slowed down, with the core PCE rising by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, and the PCE rising by 2.3% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, indicating the resilience of core inflation. The CPI in June rose by 2.7% year-on-year, in line with market expectations and rebounding from the previous month, indicating the resilience of inflation. With the progress of trade negotiations, the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to weaken. In the short term, the weakening of the US dollar, combined with the uncertainty of geopolitics and tariff policies, and the debate over the Fed's independence have boosted the demand for risk aversion funds, but some funds have shifted to alternative assets such as silver. It is expected that the gold price will maintain high-level oscillations [4]. - **Silver**: It is expected to operate strongly [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the spot market price of pulp was strong. The price of some coniferous pulp in the spot market rose by 20 - 70 yuan/ton, and the price of some broadleaf pulp in the spot market rose by 70 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of coniferous pulp decreased by 20 US dollars to 720 US dollars/ton, and the latest FOB price of broadleaf pulp decreased by 60 US dollars to 500 US dollars/ton. The decline in the cost price has weakened the support for the pulp price. The profitability of the paper industry is at a low level, and the inventory pressure of paper mills is relatively large, with low acceptance of high-priced pulp. The demand is in the off-season, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid basis, which is negative for the pulp price. The pulp market presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the pulp price will oscillate mainly under the game between long and short positions [6]. - **Logs**: Last week, the average daily shipment volume of logs at the port was 58,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,100 cubic meters month-on-month. The downstream demand was poor, the orders of processing plants declined significantly, the utilization rate of the sawing machine capacity of processing plants decreased, and the average daily outbound volume dropped below 60,000 cubic meters. In June, the volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China was 1.406 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.3% from the previous month. The expected arrival volume this week is 192,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 44% month-on-month. As of last week, the log port inventory was 3.22 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters month-on-month. The spot market price is relatively stable. The spot market price in Shandong is stable at 740 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous week, and the price in the Jiangsu market is stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous week. The latest CFR quote in July is 114 US dollars/cubic meter, an increase of 4 US dollars from the previous month, with a maximum of 117 US dollars, and the cost-side support has increased. In the short term, the arrival volume of logs has decreased again, the supply pressure has eased, and the sudden hurricane in the key ports of New Zealand's logs has affected the log shipments, stimulating the rise of the log price. Although the average daily outbound volume is below 60,000 cubic meters, the "anti-involution" policy in China has boosted market sentiment, and the shortage of the 6-meter medium A, the mainstream delivery product in the Taicang area, has promoted the price increase. It is expected that the log price will maintain a strong oscillation [6]. - **Oils and meals**: - **Oils**: In June, the production of Malaysian palm oil was 1.692 million tons, a decrease of 4.5% month-on-month, while the inventory increased to 2.03 million tons, the fourth consecutive month of growth, mainly due to the unexpected decline in exports. The increase in the export tariff in July may further slow down the export pace. The production activity of US biodiesel is increasing, which supports the demand for soybean oil as the main raw material, and is also boosted by Indonesia's B40 policy. Affected by the large arrival of South American soybeans and the high-pressure crushing of oil mills, the domestic soybean oil inventory has accelerated the growth, the palm oil inventory has rebounded, and the rapeseed oil inventory has continued to decline, but the year-on-year inventory pressure is still high. The inventory of the three major oils has continued to rise, with sufficient supply and a demand off-season, lacking its own driving force. However, it benefits from the expectation of biodiesel, and the oils are expected to oscillate more in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meals**: The estimated output of US soybeans has been reduced, but the increase in the crushing volume cannot offset the decrease in the export volume, and the final increase in the year-end inventory exceeds expectations. The growth of US soybean crops is good, and the improvement of the US crop rating has strengthened the expectation of a bumper autumn harvest. However, the expected consumption of US soybean crushing is continuously driven by the favorable biofuel policy, which supports the US soybean futures price. The agricultural trade agreement reached between the US and Indonesia has increased the market's confidence in future soybean export demand, and the US soybean price has risen. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China in July is about 10 million tons, and the operating rate of oil mills remains relatively high. Some oil mills in certain regions are facing the pressure of full storage of soybean meal, and the phenomenon of oil mills urging提货 has increased, with the提货 volume of soybean meal at a high level. It is expected that soybean meal will oscillate more in the short term under the boost of cost and the expectation of US soybean exports. Attention should be paid to the weather of US soybeans and the arrival situation of soybeans [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs continues to show a downward trend. The average trading weight of live pigs across the country has dropped to 124.91 kilograms. From a regional perspective, the average trading weights of live pigs in various provinces have risen and fallen, but the overall trend is downward. Recently, the increase in temperature has slowed down the weight gain rate of live pigs. In addition, after the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs turned positive, the price of large pigs was relatively high, and slaughtering enterprises increased their procurement efforts for low-priced standard pigs to relieve the procurement pressure, resulting in a decline in the overall average procurement weight. However, some large-scale farms in certain regions have chosen to hold back pigs for weight gain based on the bullish expectation of the large pig market, driving a slight increase in the average trading weight of live pigs in the local area. Looking forward to the future, as the breeding end may continue to adopt the weight loss strategy, and slaughtering enterprises will still focus on purchasing standard pigs, it is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs in most regions still has room to decline. However, considering the continuous phenomenon of holding back pigs for weight gain in some regions, it is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs across the country may continue to decline slightly. The average settlement price of live pigs of key slaughtering enterprises has risen slightly to 15.55 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.98% month-on-month. From the price trend, the settlement price shows an oscillating downward trend. Affected by factors such as the accelerated slaughtering rhythm of the breeding end and the impact of high temperatures on terminal consumption, although the overall average price has increased slightly compared with last week, the price has fallen from the high level due to the price reduction and procurement by slaughtering enterprises. At the same time, the average operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises this week has dropped to 31.97%, a decrease of 0.97 percentage points month-on-month. The decline in the operating rate is mainly due to two factors: on the one hand, the supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the procurement difficulty of enterprises has decreased

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant breakthrough with Bitcoin's price surpassing $120,000, driven by regulatory developments and market expectations [1][8] - The "Genius Act" stablecoin regulation, signed by President Trump, establishes new rules for stablecoin issuance, enhancing market confidence in stablecoins and decentralized platforms [1][3] Market Performance - The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) showed slight adjustments, trading around $627.6, while the Invesco QQQ ETF remained stable at approximately $561, indicating a cautious investor sentiment [1][3] - Bitcoin's price fluctuated between $118,000 and $120,000 after reaching a new high, with trading volume increasing, reflecting a combination of regulatory optimism and technical corrections [1][5] Regulatory Developments - The "Genius Act" was passed by Congress with a vote of 308 to 122, marking the first comprehensive federal legislation on stablecoins in the U.S., which includes provisions for issuance qualifications and consumer protections [3][6] - The act mandates that foreign stablecoin issuers must comply with U.S. regulations or seek exemptions, with detailed rules expected within 180 days and full implementation in 18 months [3][6] Market Sentiment and Trends - The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization surpassed $4 trillion, with notable increases in Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP), indicating a positive market sentiment driven by regulatory policies and capital influx [5][6] - The trading activity on decentralized platforms like XBIT is increasing, with a 50% rise in new user registrations, suggesting a growing interest in decentralized finance (DeFi) solutions [5][8] Future Outlook - The implementation of the "Genius Act" is expected to reshape the stablecoin trading ecosystem, potentially enhancing the use of stablecoins in payments and cross-border transactions [6][8] - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming regulatory details and market conditions, as the next few months will be critical for the stablecoin framework's transition from legislation to practical application [8]