炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 特朗普借选民对经济不满的浪潮，成功连任入主白宫，承诺降低物价并开创国家的"黄金时代"。 他的政府目前表现如何？尽管经历了一些剧烈起伏，但美国经济在2025年似乎将交出一份稳健的增长答 卷——经济学家预计这一趋势将在2026年延续。 数据显示，得益于韧性十足的消费者和企业投资，美国经济在第三季度以两年来最快的速度扩张。 然而，亮眼的整体数据掩盖了一些不那么乐观的细节。就业增长乏力且仅集中在少数几个行业，而高企 的物价仍是一大隐忧，延续了困扰其前任乔·拜登的负担能力危机。 劳动力市场 在关税引发的动荡、外国游客减少以及人工智能在职场兴起的多重冲击下，美国求职者度过了艰难的一 年。11月失业率升至4.6%——2025年内上升了0.5个百分点——创下自2021年以来的最高水平。 招聘活动整体不温不火，且就业增长绝大部分集中在医疗保健和社会援助领域：若剔除该板块，今年就 业人数实际上不增反降。制造业已连续七个月流失岗位。 在职人员的工资涨幅有所降温。最新数据显示，包括平均时薪和就业成本指数在内的指标正以2021年以 来最慢的速度增 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the escalating tension between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with Trump threatening to sue Powell for "serious misconduct" and hinting at announcing a new Fed chair candidate in January [1][5]. - Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell throughout the year for not implementing significant interest rate cuts, using increasingly harsh language to describe Powell's performance, including terms like "absolute fool" [4][5]. - The market is closely watching who will succeed Powell, with Trump indicating he has a preferred candidate and plans to announce this choice at an appropriate time, likely in January [4][8]. Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes revealed significant internal divisions, with a decision made to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, marking the highest number of dissenting votes since 2019 [8]. - The minutes indicated that while most participants supported the rate cut, some preferred to maintain the current rate, reflecting a nuanced decision-making process [8]. - Economic projections suggest a slight acceleration in GDP growth by 2028, with expectations of a gradual decline in unemployment rates and inflation returning to a target of 2% by 2028 [9].

美联储12月货币政策会议纪要公布。 当地时间12月30日（周二），美国股市三大股指表现比较平淡，并均录得三连跌。 美联储披露的12月货币政策会议纪要显示内部的分歧明显，在该纪要发布后，交易员维持美联储2026年内两次降息押 注。 银行股全线走低，拖累指数表现，不过普遍跌幅不大。其中，高盛、花旗集团跌近1%，摩根大通、摩根士丹利、美国 银行、富国银行等微跌。 美股三大指数连续3个交易日下跌 当地时间12月30日（周二），美国股市三大股指小幅收跌，其中道琼斯工业指数跌0.2%，报48367.06点；标准普尔500 指数跌0.14%，报6896.24点；纳斯达克指数跌0.24%，报23419.08点。值得注意的是，上述三大股指均录得三连跌。 美股市场大型科技股涨跌互现。具体个股方面，特斯拉跌超1%，英伟达、苹果跌幅不足1%，Meta涨超1%，亚马逊、 微软、谷歌微涨。 能源股集体上涨，西方石油涨超2%，斯伦贝谢、康菲石油涨逾1%，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙涨幅不足1%。 芯片股涨跌不一，费城半导体指数跌0.13%。具体芯片个股方面，英特尔、迈威尔科技涨超1%，科天半导体、拉姆研 究、应用材料跌逾1%。其他芯片股方面，微芯科 ...

Core Insights - Brazil's unemployment rate from September to November dropped to 5.2%, marking the lowest level since the establishment of this statistic in 2012 [1] - The number of unemployed individuals is approximately 5.644 million, also the lowest recorded by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) [1] - The total employment population in Brazil increased to 103.2 million, with an employment rate of 59%, both representing the highest levels since the inception of this statistic [1] Employment Sector Analysis - There is a strong demand for jobs in the education and health services sectors, contributing to the overall employment growth [1] - The labor market is expanding without a decline in income, which has created favorable conditions for the performance of the labor market [1] - The total income has increased without experiencing peak inflation, indicating a stable economic environment [1]

Market Overview - The tech bubble from 1995 to 2000 was driven by technological advancements, macroeconomic changes, regulatory relaxations, and shifts in monetary policy frameworks[6] - The NASDAQ Composite Index peaked at 5048.62 on March 10, 2000, before a significant sell-off began due to external economic shocks[9] Economic Factors - Labor productivity in the U.S. increased significantly during this period, breaking the long-standing relationship of "low unemployment and high inflation" and contributing to economic resilience[6] - The rapid increase in productivity led to a contraction of the output gap, with inflation remaining subdued despite declining unemployment rates[17] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve, under Alan Greenspan, adopted a technology-friendly monetary policy framework, maintaining low interest rates to support economic growth while being cautious about inflation[22] - The Fed's approach evolved to focus on maintaining overall price stability and managing the consequences of asset bubbles rather than attempting to burst them[23] Investment Trends - The number of tech IPOs surged from 1995, peaking in 1999, reflecting a growing investor appetite for technology stocks[9] - In 1998 and 1999, tech stocks experienced a significant rally, with the information technology sector showing returns of 77.64% and 78.44% respectively[32] Risk Factors - The report highlights that excessive liquidity and regulatory relaxation were common characteristics of bubbles, with the potential for chaotic leverage expansion being a critical concern[6] - The experience of the tech bubble serves as a cautionary tale, emphasizing that historical patterns cannot be solely relied upon for future investment decisions[2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's economic outlook indicates a slight acceleration in real GDP growth by 2028, supported by improved financial market conditions and enhanced potential output growth [1] Group 1: GDP Growth Projections - Real GDP growth is expected to be above potential growth rates by 2028, primarily due to diminishing negative impacts from high tariffs and continued support from fiscal policy and financial market conditions [1] - The forecast for GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 is slightly lower than the predictions made in October, while the projections for 2027 and 2028 remain consistent with previous estimates [1] Group 2: Unemployment Rate Expectations - The unemployment rate is anticipated to gradually decline after this year, reaching a level slightly below the natural rate estimated by staff by 2027 [1] Group 3: Inflation Forecasts - Staff projections for inflation in 2025 and 2026 are slightly lower compared to the forecasts presented in October, while the inflation outlook for 2027 and 2028 aligns with earlier predictions [1]

Cutting rates in December was a close call for officials at the Federal Reserve, with some suggesting it could be "some time" before the central bank cuts rates again, according to the minutes from the central bank's December policy meeting released Tuesday. "Most participants judged that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate if inflation declined over time as expected," the minutes read. "With respect to the extent and timing of addition ...

芝加哥联储周二估计，美国12月失业率料为4.6%，与11月官方公布的失业率持平，经济学家称11月官 方数据很可能因政府停摆造成的相关技术问题而被扭曲。 责任编辑：李桐 责任编辑：李桐 芝加哥联储周二估计，美国12月失业率料为4.6%，与11月官方公布的失业率持平，经济学家称11月官 方数据很可能因政府停摆造成的相关技术问题而被扭曲。 美国劳工统计局将于1月9日公布12月官方失业率。经济学家预计失业率将小幅回落至 4.5%。 美联储本月早些时候下调了政策利率，以应对大多数决策者认为的劳动力市场趋弱的情况，联储还暗示 在新的一年里可能会暂停进一步降息，同时等待更多的经济数据。这是一个有争议的决定，三位决策者 投了反对票。这次会议的记录将于周二晚些时候公布。 芝加哥联储从公共和 民间数据中估算失业率，每月发布两次，以便让决策者更及时地了解这一关键经 济指标。最新数据反映出招聘或解雇工人的速度变化不大，因此估算出的12月失业率与劳工部公布的11 月读数完全一致。 美国劳工统计局将于1月9日公布12月官方失业率。经济学家预计失业率将小幅回落至 4.5%。 美联储本月早些时候下调了政策利率，以应对大多数决策者认为的劳动力 ...

芝加哥联邦储备银行于周二发布预估数据称，美国12月失业率为4.6%，与11月官方公布的失业率持 平。 经济学家表示，11月的官方失业率或因政府停摆相关技术性因素出现偏差。 美国劳工统计局将于1月9日发布12月官方失业率数据。 经济学家预计，该数值将小幅回落至4.5%。本月早些时候，美联储鉴于多数官员认为劳动力市场正走 弱，决定下调政策利率，同时释放信号称，明年或将暂停进一步降息，以等待更多经济数据出炉。 这一决策颇具争议，引发了三名官员的反对。本次议息会议的纪要将于周二晚些时候公布。 美国劳工统计局将于1月9日发布12月官方失业率数据。 经济学家预计，该数值将小幅回落至4.5%。本月早些时候，美联储鉴于多数官员认为劳动力市场正走 弱，决定下调政策利率，同时释放信号称，明年或将暂停进一步降息，以等待更多经济数据出炉。 这一决策颇具争议，引发了三名官员的反对。本次议息会议的纪要将于周二晚些时候公布。 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 芝加哥联邦储备银行于周二发布预估数据称，美国12月失业率为4.6%，与11月官方公布的失业率持 平。 经济学家表示，11月的官方失业率或因政府停摆相关技术性因素出现偏差。 ...

【文/观察者网 熊超然】据印度新德里电视台（NDTV）当地时间12月29日报道，印度政府当天晚间在 其发布的一份经济状况简报中称，按国内生产总值（GDP）计算，印度经济规模已达4.18万亿美元，超 过日本，成为全球第四大经济体，并有望在未来两年半至三年内取代德国，升至第三位；到2030年，其 GDP预计将达到7.3万亿美元。 香港《南华早报》12月30日根据印度官方发布的这份声明指出，目前仍需等待2026年发布的年度GDP最 终数据，才能得到更具官方性质的确认。事实上，国际货币基金组织（IMF）的预测是，印度的经济规 模将在2026年超越日本，届时印度经济规模将达到4.51万亿美元，而日本为4.46万亿美元。 尽管今年8月因购买俄罗斯石油，印度遭到美国加征高额关税，引发了经济担忧，但新德里方面的自我 经济评估依旧保持乐观。印度方面宣称，其经济增长动能再次超出预期，2025-26财年第二季度GDP升 至六个季度以来的最高水平，反映出印度经济在全球贸易不确定性持续之际展现出的韧性。 《南华早报》指出，但从其他衡量指标描绘的前景来看，事实并不那么乐观。 从人口规模看，印度已于2023年超过中国，成为全球人口最多的国 ...