Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding trade agreements and tariff policies has led to a decline in U.S. stock markets for the second consecutive day, with investors expressing concerns about future trade policies and their economic implications [1][3][7]. Trade Agreement Uncertainty - Trump's statement about reviewing potential trade agreements in the next two weeks contrasts with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's earlier comments suggesting that some agreements could be announced as early as this week, increasing market volatility and investor anxiety [3][5]. Market Performance and Sector Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.95% to 40,829.00 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.77% to 5,606.90 points, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.87% to 17,689.66 points. The U.S. Commerce Department reported a record trade deficit of $140.5 billion in March, driven by increased imports ahead of tariff announcements [4][5]. - Healthcare stocks declined by 2.8%, with Eli Lilly down 5.6% and Moderna down 12.3%, significantly impacting the S&P 500 index [4]. Impact of Tariff Policies - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has notably affected the market, particularly after Trump's announcement regarding potential tariffs on pharmaceuticals, leading to significant declines in healthcare stocks reliant on imported drugs [5][6]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, indicated a patient approach to monetary policy adjustments until the effects of tariffs are reflected in economic data. The market anticipates an 80% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in the July meeting, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook [6].

周三（北京时间5月7日），现货黄金交投于3391美元附近，周二金价上涨近3%，重回3400美元附近， 升至两周高点。ETO外汇分析这一上涨主要受到假期后市场购买和对美国可能对进口药品征收关税的担 忧支撑，同时投资者也在等待美联储政策会议的结果。现货黄金上涨2.4%，至每盎司3413.29美元，为4 月22日创下每盎司3500.05美元的历史新高以来的最高水平。美国黄金期货结算价上涨3%，至3422.8美 元。 关税政策的不确定性 美国总统特朗普周一表示，他计划在未来两周内宣布对药品征收新关税。此前，周日早些时候，他还宣 布对海外制作的电影征收100%的关税。这些关税政策的不确定性增加了市场的避险情绪，推动了黄金 价格的上涨。投资者担心，关税政策可能会引发贸易摩擦，进而影响全球经济的稳定。 除了黄金，其他贵金属也表现出不同程度的上涨。现货白银上涨1.9%，至每盎司33.1美元；铂金上涨约 2.4%，至982.52美元；钯金上涨3.1%，至971.27美元。这些贵金属的上涨反映了市场对避险资产的整体 需求增加。 黄金市场的未来展望 黄金价格的上涨反映了市场对关税政策不确定性和美联储政策预期的双重推动。投资者在当前 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, rubber prices rose significantly, with a large increase in open interest and net inflow of funds. The rise was mainly due to the oversold rebound after the previous sharp decline and the return of funds after the holiday. Currently, the rubber fundamentals lack obvious drivers. The supply side is entering the tapping season, but Thai raw material prices remain high due to rainfall and slow tapping. The demand side saw a significant drop in the operating rate of downstream tire factories during the holiday. As of April 30, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.29 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.54%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.74 percentage points. As of April 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 135.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56 million tons, a decline of 1.1%. Considering the uncertainty of global trade policies and the instability of domestic stockpiling events, it is recommended to reduce the risk exposure in the short term and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price - RU主力: from 14815 to 14555, up 270; NR主力: from 12285 to 12555; BR主力: from 11080 to 11315, up 3.5; Tocom RSS3 (yen/kg): from 292.2 to 295.7; Sicom TF (cents/kg): from 167.8 to 164.8, down 10 [3]. Futures Spread - RU2509 - RU2505: from 205 to 195; RU2601 - RU2509: from 745 to 740; NR主力 - 次主力: from 65 to 45; BR主力 - 次主力: from 75 to - 160; RU - NR: from 2270 to 2260; RU - BR: from 3500 to 3475; NR - BR: from 1240 to 1205; RU - Tocom RSS3 ($): up 33; NR - Sicom TF ($): up 18 [3]. Raw Material Price - 烟片胶: from 70.71 to 71.41, up 0.70; 胶水: from 59.25 to 58.75, up 0.50; 杯胶: from 52.65 to 53.05, up 0.40; 海南胶水(浓乳): 14200 (unchanged); 海南胶水(全乳): 13100 (unchanged); 云南胶水(浓乳): from 13900 to 13800, up 100; 云南胶块(全乳): from 13800 to 13600, up 200 [3]. Spot Price - 国产9710: from 14600 to 14500, up 100; 老全乳: from 14600 to 14400, up 200; 越南3L: from 16100 to 15950, up 150; 泰混: from 14200 to 14450, up 250; 马混: from 14350 to 14100, up 250; 泰标: from 12745 to 12386, up 359; 国产标二: from 14100 to 13900, up 200; 上海:黄春发散装: N/A to 11100; 上海:海南散装: N/A to 10800; 顺丁BR9000: 11600 (unchanged); 丁苯SBR1502: from 12100 to 12000, up 100; 丁苯SBR1712: from 11000 to 11050, up 50; 泰混CIF: from 1850 to 1840, up 10; 马混CIF: from 1745 to 1770, up 25; 泰标CIF: from 1840 to 1850, up 10; 马标CIF: from 1770 to 1745, up 25; 印标CIF: from 1660 to 1685, up 25 [3]. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate - 美元指数: from 99.7911 to 99.6403, up 0.151; 美元/人民币: from 7.2008 to 7.2014; 美元/日元: from 143.6860 to 143.0585, up 0.627; 美元/泰铢: from 32.9200 to 33.3550, down 0.435; SHIBOR - 隔夜: from 1.760 to 1.702, down 0.058; SHIBOR - 七天: from 1.707 to 1.762, down 0.055 [3].

近期受美国关税政策的影响，越来越多的欧洲零售商和消费品牌正将重心从美国转向欧洲和其他市场，因为他们预计美国关税政策将引发价格上涨，从而压 低美国消费者的需求。美国关税政策的不确定性，也将使得他们在美国市场上的经营面临更多的压力。 总部位于德国的欧洲线上时尚产品零售商扎兰多公司6日表示，该公司目前正在大力拓展欧洲市场并且与潜在的新客户进行洽谈。 该公司首席执行官丹尼尔·格里德6日表示，该公司目前对美国消费者行为采取了相当谨慎的态度。该公司的一份报告称，公司的营收较去年同期有所下降。 △扎兰多公司联席首席执行官 大卫·施罗德 德国高端服装品牌雨果·博思目前也已将中国制造的产品转移到美国以外的其他市场，并表示由于经济不确定性加剧，第一季度美国消费者支出"明显恶 化"。 △德国雨果·博思公司 △扎兰多公司 扎兰多公司联席首席执行官大卫·施罗德当天表示，他看到该公司网站上的品牌和零售商确实更加关注欧洲市场，因为如果在美国市场拓展变得更加困难， 他们也可以通过这种方式创造额外的需求。 这一反应凸显了美国关税政策对全球消费品流通的影响，迫使企业改变长期以来形成的生产和销售模式，既增加了企业在美国市场经营的难度，也使得企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surged significantly, reaching a high of $3387.05 per ounce, driven by bearish sentiment towards the US dollar and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2]. Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with a cumulative increase of approximately $150, indicating a robust bullish momentum after a period of consolidation [2]. - The key resistance level is identified at $3386 per ounce, which aligns with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, suggesting that this point will be crucial for future price movements [4]. - The market is advised to monitor the support level at $3350 per ounce; a breach below this could lead to further declines, while maintaining above it may allow for continued upward movement [4][5]. Technical Indicators - The current trading strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips within the $3368-$3373 range, with a stop loss set at $3362 and a target of $3390-$3400 [6]. - The short-term support levels are identified at $3370-$3364, with stronger support at $3360, while resistance levels are noted at $3386 and $3400 [5][6].

美国总统特朗普当地时间5月4日在社交媒体上发文称，他将授权美国商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有进入美国、在外国制作的电影征收100% 关税。对此，有美国经济学家警告，这一政策、特别是其中的不确定性将给美国电影产业构成实质性伤害。 0:00 美国欧道明大学经济系主任罗伯特·麦克纳布指出，征税对象、征税方式、执行机制等关键问题尚无细则，极大增加了市场不确定性。 罗伯特·麦克纳布认为，这一政策若落实，将直接影响许多国际合拍作品的归类与成本结构，政策模糊性还可能进一步削弱美国电影在全球的竞争力，影响 外资信心。 美国欧道明大学经济系主任 罗伯特·麦克纳布：我们该如何界定那些在海外拍摄，然后在美国剪辑并发行的作品，这算是外国电影吗？我们并不清楚。还是 说，只有完全在海外制作，然后被引进美国的电影才算外国电影。那类电影相对于好莱坞的产出来说是相对较少的。我认为，对进口国际电影加征关税，这 个提议传递出的更大信号是美国政治和经济环境的不确定性正在加剧，而这种不确定性将会在未来逐步削弱外国对美投资。 关税或削弱好莱坞全球化制作和发售能力 近年来正是跨国合作让美国电影在全球市场保持领先。如果关税真的开始执行，专家认为， ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock indices ended a nine-day winning streak as investors reassessed former President Trump's latest tariff comments, leading to a resurgence in risk-averse sentiment with significant increases in safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Trump's proposal to impose a 100% tariff on foreign films negatively impacted market sentiment, particularly affecting entertainment stocks such as Netflix and Paramount Global, reigniting concerns over his overall trade policy stance [2] - Recent economic data showed mixed signals, with the ISM services PMI unexpectedly rising to 51.6 in April from 50.8 in March, while employment sub-indices shrank for the second consecutive month, raising doubts about the labor market fundamentals [2][4] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is surrounded by uncertainty, especially with no substantial progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, despite both sides expressing willingness to continue dialogue [4] - Market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the May meeting, with close attention on potential rate cuts in June or July, although rising trade risks are leading to a downward adjustment in expectations for recent easing policies [4][6] - The S&P 500 index is facing key technical resistance at the 200-day moving average, which historically serves as an important market inflection point, indicating persistent bearish sentiment in the market [6]

Core Insights - The recent U.S. employment report is viewed positively, highlighting the resilience of the labor market amidst a complex economic environment [1][3] Labor Market Analysis - The employment report indicates a strong labor market characterized by resilience rather than recession, with significant non-farm job growth and a stable unemployment rate [3] - Job vacancies remain steady, and hiring has not significantly slowed despite external uncertainties, with some sectors increasing recruitment efforts [3] - The leisure and hospitality sectors continue to absorb a large workforce, supported by consumer market demand, while the tech industry is driven by innovation despite global competition [3] Economic Outlook - Despite the positive employment data, potential risks from trade policies, such as tariffs and trade negotiation uncertainties, pose challenges to the economy [4] - The manufacturing and agricultural sectors, heavily reliant on imports and exports, are particularly vulnerable to trade tensions, which could lead to profit declines and potential layoffs [4] - Overall economic indicators for early April show strong fundamentals, including stable consumer confidence and retail sales growth, but the future economic outlook remains uncertain due to global economic slowdowns and trade policy risks [4] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach until there are clear signs of labor market weakness [5] - Current strong labor market performance reduces the urgency for the Fed to implement rate cuts or other easing measures [5] - The impact of trade policies on the economy remains unclear, and premature actions by the Fed could exacerbate market uncertainties [5]

国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————内需维持稳定，外需压力初现 袁方1 张端怡（联系人）2魏薇（联系人）3 2025 年 5 月 5 日 内容提要 4 月 PMI 的量价和分项数据表明，美国对华关税政策升级以来出口明显降 温，总需求收缩压力有所增加，二季度经济相对一季度或将减速。 五一期间人员流动、景区游客人数和消费数据表明，居民消费活动在稳步恢 复。居民出行与以旧换新政策相关性较低，这暗示居民消费的恢复更多源于自发 的消费倾向回升，这一趋势在中期有望维持。 4 月美国新增非农就业数据大幅减速，失业率维持高位，工资增速小幅下滑， 这些数据表明美国劳动力市场在持续降温。一季度 GDP 数据与 4 月劳动力市场 数据显示特朗普政策不确定性对经济的影响已经显现，未来这一影响或将延续。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1宏观团队负责人，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2联系人，zhangdy2@essence.com.cn，S1450123040002 3联系人，weiwei2@es ...

Ryman Hospitality Properties (RHP) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 02, 2025 12:00 PM ET Company Participants Jennifer Hutcheson - Executive VP & CFOColin Reed - Executive Chairman of the Board of DirectorsMark Fioravanti - President and CEOPatrick Chaffin - Executive VP & COO - HotelsJack Armstrong - Equity Research AssociatePatrick Moore - CEODuane Pfennigwerth - Senior MDSmedes Rose - DirectorAri Klein - Director - Equity ResearchDavid Katz - Managing DirectorJay Kornreich - VP - Equity ResearchJohn Decree - Di ...