医药股遭遇"至暗时刻"。 根据高盛欧洲医药专家Seth James的分析，当前医药股的交易表现宛如"ESG时代巅峰时期的能源股 ——仿佛正在消亡"。 数据显示， 该板块相对市盈率已降至自全球金融危机复苏期和新冠疫情高峰期以来的最低水平；相对 标普500指数的估值已降至历史新低，创下有记录以来的最大折价。 标普医疗保健行业指数基金表现逊于标普大盘，差距为24年来最大。 高盛数据显示，从市场定位来看，欧盟医药板块多空比率接近5年低点，而美国市场在空头方面甚至更 加极端——这种极端定位通常为反弹奠定基础。 然而，仍有多重政策不确定性仍继续笼罩医药板块。 分析指出，除了潜在的关税政策、特朗普要求高价处方药必须"对齐"降价的计划之外，美国CMS(医疗保 险与医疗补助服务中心)最新指导草案新增关于固定组合的段落，也引发了投资者担忧某些原为静脉注 射药物的皮下注射剂型可能比预期更早纳入IRA价格谈判。 高盛分析师Asad Haider指出，上述因素尽管可能最终成为"大妥协"的一部分，但目前仍是压制整个行 业的阴云。 推荐阅读： 巴菲特解释"退休"决定：开始偶尔失去平衡，有时甚至记不起一个人的名字。突然间，读的报纸看起来 就 ...

医药股遭遇"至暗时刻"。 此举进一步加剧了医药板块的抛售压力，使得已经表现不佳的医药股在今年的处境更加艰难。 做多机会与政策风险并存 James同时表示，尽管医药股的走势看起来像"正在下落的刀"，但随着许多医药股价接近其交易区间底 部，现在可能是"咬紧牙关，增加医药股净头寸"的时候了。 高盛数据显示，从市场定位来看，欧盟医药板块多空比率接近5年低点，而美国市场在空头方面甚至更 加极端——这种极端定位通常为反弹奠定基础。 根据高盛欧洲医药专家Seth James的分析，当前医药股的交易表现宛如"ESG时代巅峰时期的能源股—— 仿佛正在消亡"。 数据显示，该板块相对市盈率已降至自全球金融危机复苏期和新冠疫情高峰期以来的最低水平；相对标 普500指数的估值已降至历史新低，创下有记录以来的最大折价。 James指出： "令人震惊的是，该板块目前的交易折价甚至超过了过去任何政策不确定性的高峰期。" 据媒体报道，周一，美国总统特朗普签署一项行政命令，以把美国国内药品价格降至与药价最低的国家 相同的水平。他预计，美国处方药和药品价格将因此降低59%至90%。 高盛分析师Asad Haider指出，上述因素尽管可能最终成为" ...

发布时间：2025-05-13 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报：市场静待贸易靴子 落地》 - 2025.05.12 宏观观点 大方向依然是走弱 l 核心观点 在 5 月 12 日的中美经贸联合声明中，美国将取消和暂停对我国 部分关税，总体将对我国关税税率降至 30%左右。但我们认为此举对 于美国经济的提振有限，回到"解放日"之前的水平和状态可能性较 低。 首先是声明公布后进一步走高的政策不确定性指数。在"解放日" 后，关税大幅抬高，但真正直接作用于美国经济和实体预期的是政策 的不确定性。各项调查等软数据均显示了不确定性对居民和企业部门 消费、投资决策的负面影响。5 月 12 日，尽管中美关系出现了阶段性 缓和，但政策不确定性指数再创新高，这一影响渠道依然在起作用。 其次是特朗普可能出现的"朝令夕改"。这在上一次贸易战中已 经体现的较为充分，且 24%的对等关税是暂停 90 天， ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite a strong rebound of over 15% in European stock markets since early April, Bank of America believes the market may be overly optimistic in pricing the reduction of future policy uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - European stock markets have rebounded more than 15% since the low on April 9, recovering from an 18% drop from the historical high in early March [3]. - The rebound is attributed to resilient macro data and expectations of reduced policy uncertainty [1][3]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Data - Overall macro data remains strong, with U.S. private domestic demand growing at an annualized rate of 3% in Q1 and April employment data exceeding expectations [5]. - Global PMI slightly declined from 51.9 in March to 50.7, indicating that while some indicators suggest a slowdown, economic growth momentum has not yet been significantly impacted [5]. Group 3: Policy Uncertainty - Market sentiment has improved as signs indicate that the U.S. government's "pain threshold" has been triggered, leading to a rollback of tariff measures and upcoming trade negotiations with China [6]. - Investors appear to view high uncertainty indicators as lagging, expecting a significant decrease in uncertainty due to the easing of trade tensions [6]. Group 4: Future Risks - There is considerable disappointment potential as macro data may worsen, with analysts predicting a further decline in global PMI by 3 points to 48 in Q3 [7][8]. - Although policy uncertainty is expected to decrease, it may not decline as sharply as the market anticipates, suggesting that the Stoxx 600 index could face about a 15% downside risk, with a target price of 460 points for Q3 [14][11]. Group 5: Sector Analysis - Analysts favor sectors positively correlated with uncertainty reduction, such as food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, personal and household products, and utilities [16]. - Caution is advised for sectors negatively correlated with uncertainty, including building materials, banks, capital goods, and diversified financial services [16].

Group 1 - Jeff Gundlach, known as the "Bond King," predicts that gold prices could rise to $4,000 per ounce, a 20% increase from last week's price of approximately $3,345 [1] - Gold has increased by 25% this year, reflecting a shift in traders' perceptions due to market volatility related to tariffs and geopolitical concerns [1] - The World Gold Council reports that the global market size for physically-backed gold ETFs increased by $11 billion in April, reaching $397 billion [1] Group 2 - Gundlach expresses a challenging outlook for other risk assets, predicting a potential 20% decline in the S&P 500 index, which could drop to 4,500 points [2] - The market is currently in a risk-off state, with other analysts also optimistic about gold due to uncertainties stemming from trade policies [3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target to $3,700 per ounce, citing high policy uncertainty and a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with a 96.9% probability of maintaining current rates, indicating that the market has already priced in the expectation of no change [3] - The real focus lies in Fed Chair Powell's communication style; a hawkish tone could pressure the stock market, while a more dovish signal might boost market confidence [3] - Domestic consumption data from the recent May Day holiday shows 314 million travelers generating 180.27 billion yuan in spending, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 8.0%, which exceeds expectations and signals strong domestic demand [6] Group 2 - Political dynamics in the U.S. are creating uncertainty, as Pence's criticism of Trump highlights the deep divisions within American politics, which could lead to volatility in capital markets [8] - Concerns are rising in the domestic futures market, with reports suggesting that retail investors' positions are being closely monitored, indicating a level of anxiety among market participants [9] - A three-dimensional observation framework is suggested, focusing on the Fed's decision-making paths, the sustainability of domestic consumption recovery, and the tension between technical market adjustments and favorable policies [11] Group 3 - The interplay between the consumption surge during the May Day holiday and potential policy support may indicate resilience in the Chinese economy, suggesting a possible new breakthrough [13] - Maintaining independent thinking amidst information overload is emphasized as a crucial strategy for market participants to navigate through economic cycles [13]

政策反复无常引发担忧 美多家企业重评业绩指引 由于美国政府关税政策带来的不确定性，多家企业宣布撤回或取消发布业绩指引。美国三大汽车制造商 之一的斯特兰蒂斯汽车公司4月30日表示，由于美国政府关税政策带来的不确定性，它将撤回此前发布 的2025年度业绩指引。美国捷蓝航空公司于4月29日表示，由于美国政府的政策给宏观经济带来不确定 性，公司将撤回年度业绩指引，其首席执行官乔安娜·杰拉蒂表示，公司正在考虑因需求下降而进一步 削减运力，并重新规划飞机退役计划。美国社交软件"阅后即焚"的母公司也于4月29日表示，鉴于未来 宏观经济状况的不确定性，公司取消公布第二季度的业绩指引。据美国华尔街日报报道，在对三百多名 企业高管的调查中，84%的受访者表示，对美国当前的政治和法律环境可能对其业务所产生的影响感到 担忧。大约45%的受访企业高管表示，美国政府近期的政策已经对他们公司的竞争力造成了损害。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，当前，市场剧烈波动，贸易战乱局持续，人们纷纷感到恐慌之际，部分高管却也看 到了曙光。高盛(GS.US)首席执行官大卫·所罗门周二表示，尽管当前并购和首次公开募股(IPO)活动低 迷，但乱象过后，"一切终将平息"。 所罗门在接受采访时指出："如果不确定性进一步加剧，资本活动规模的确会受到影响，但局面终将稳 定下来。人们始终有交易需求，需要筹集资金，也需要投资流动性。当前的部分情况，不过是预期的调 整。" 他还补充道，财政部有关放宽银行监管的表态令他倍感振奋。他说，"我坚信，扭转此前阻碍经济增长 的监管态势存在机遇。释放部分资本，使其在金融体系中循环流动，进而推动信贷活动。因此我乐观认 为，美国金融监管领域将迎来积极变革。" 此外，所罗门认为美债仍是"避风港"。不过，所罗门也警示，当前政策的不确定性已危害经济健康。受 唐纳德·特朗普总统关税政策影响，越来越多企业首席执行官预计经济将陷入衰退，美联储主席杰罗姆· 鲍威尔也表示，这些关税"极有可能"推高通胀。 这位高盛首席执行官指出："目前的政策举措引发的不确定性已达到不健康水平，这对投资和经济增长 不利。在与企业首席执行官和客户的交流中，我发现他 ...

Group 1 - Hedge fund managers are largely bearish on U.S. stocks, significantly increasing short positions despite recent market rebounds [1][5] - The market confidence indicator for hedge funds has recently improved after hitting a decades-low, but overall asset class holdings remain weak [1][4] - The uncertain policy environment, exacerbated by President Trump's tariff measures, has led to a conservative stance among Wall Street professionals [1][5] Group 2 - Hedge funds are reducing long positions in U.S. stocks while increasing bets on European and Japanese equities, contrasting with their previous bullish outlook [5][8] - Many hedge funds see attractive long opportunities in the financial and banking sectors due to improving fundamentals and relatively low valuations [8] - Emerging market investments have performed well, with a reported return of 6.3% in Q1, significantly outperforming the overall hedge fund industry return of 1.7% [8] Group 3 - The U.S. faces three major challenges: federal policies potentially dragging down economic growth, declining interest from foreign investors in U.S. assets, and increasing policy uncertainty [8] - Current stock price expectations do not fully reflect the potential for economic slowdown, despite a recent decline in the dollar [8]

Group 1 - The Trump administration's trade policies have led to significant market volatility and increased living costs for American consumers, with a projected 65% rise in clothing prices and an 87% rise in shoe prices due to tariffs [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's financial stability report indicates that 73% of respondents view global trade risks as a primary concern, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies [2][4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.8% and 3% respectively, citing the uncertainty created by U.S. trade policies [4] Group 2 - Trump's approval ratings have dropped to 39%, marking the lowest approval rating for a U.S. president in their first 100 days in the last 80 years, reflecting public dissatisfaction with his policies [3][5] - Protests against the Trump administration's policies, including immigration and tariffs, have occurred in multiple U.S. cities, indicating widespread public discontent [3] - The uncertainty in trade policies has led to a significant increase in consumer inflation expectations, with a one-year inflation expectation of 6.5%, the highest since 1981 [2][3]