斯伦贝谢首席执行官Olivier Le Peuch上周告诉投资者，特朗普的关税正在造成可能损害需求的经济不确 定性，同时欧佩克+产油国集团加快增产速度超过最初预期。 Le Peuch上周在斯伦贝谢第一季度财报电话会议上与分析师和投资者交流时表示："在这种环境下，大 宗商品价格面临挑战，在它们稳定之前，客户可能对近期活动和非必要支出采取更谨慎的态度。" 钻井活动减少 美国总统特朗普希望石油和天然气行业"加大钻探力度"，以推行其能源主导议程，但那些实际参与这项 议程的的公司反而遭受了打击。 根据达拉斯联储的一项调查，美国原油价格已跌破每桶65美元，自特朗普第二个任期开始以来下跌超过 20%，这使得许多公司提高产量却无利可图。 美国页岩油企业高管们在对同一调查的匿名回应中尖锐地批评特朗普的政策措辞。根据美国石油协会经 济与研究副总裁Mason Hamilton的说法，他们在评论中使用"不确定性"一词的次数，比新冠疫情爆发五 年来的任何一个季度都多。 油田服务公司贝克休斯（Baker Hughes）、哈利伯顿（Halliburton ） 和斯伦贝谢（SLB）警告称，由于 油价下跌，今年勘探、钻井和生产投资将放缓。自特 ...

Core Viewpoint - Booking has lowered its full-year revenue forecast due to increased economic uncertainty, despite reporting a strong first-quarter performance that exceeded market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Booking's first-quarter revenue reached $4.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, surpassing market expectations [1]. - The adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter were $24.81, significantly higher than Wall Street's expectation of $17.45 [1]. - Total travel bookings, including taxes and fees, amounted to $46.7 billion, slightly above the expected $46.5 billion [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The company has revised its full-year total bookings and revenue growth expectations to "mid-to-high single digits" at constant exchange rates, down from a previous expectation of "at least 8%" [1]. - Analysts are closely monitoring the online travel sector's performance this quarter to gauge U.S. consumer confidence amid concerns over potential economic recession due to trade policies [1][2]. - Booking's CEO noted a stable level of global leisure travel demand at the beginning of the second quarter, with expected growth in bookings of 4% to 6% [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Following the earnings report, Booking's stock fell 3.2% in after-hours trading, with competitors Airbnb and Expedia also experiencing declines [2]. - The company is less susceptible to domestic macroeconomic uncertainties compared to U.S. peers, as approximately 90% of its revenue comes from international markets [2]. Group 4: Long-term Confidence - Despite warnings about the business being more susceptible to currency fluctuations, the CEO expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for the travel industry, citing the company's global presence and strong cash flow [3].

金十数据4月29日讯，美国股市周二开盘走低，势将结束连续5天的上涨势头，芝加哥期权交易所波动率 指数徘徊在25附近。白宫有关（调整汽车）关税的言论吓坏了投资者，多家公司警告称经济不确定性上 升。Tigress Financial Partners首席投资官Ivan Feinseth表示，易的不确定性继续推动全球市场和经济的不 确定性，在情况明朗之前，美国的贸易仍将波动。库存被搁置，希望一两个贸易协议将为更多的协议创 造模板。汇丰以Nicole Inui为首的策略师将标准普尔500指数的年终目标从6700点下调至5600点，以反 映美国经济增长放缓和关税压力对企业盈利的影响。预计在关税动荡消退、美联储开始放松政策、以 及/或通胀压力未能积聚之前，市场将在衰退和滞胀之间摇摆。 随着关税担忧升温，美股将结束连续五天的涨势 ...

Core Insights - PayPal's fiscal Q1 2025 financial report shows a mixed performance with revenue slightly missing expectations but adjusted earnings per share beating them significantly [2][5]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $7.8 billion, a 1% increase from $7.7 billion in Q1 2024, but it missed analyst expectations [2][5]. - Adjusted earnings per share rose by 23% year over year, from $1.08 in Q1 2024 to $1.33 in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations [2][5]. - Total payment volume (TPV) increased by 3% year over year, reaching $417.2 billion compared to $403.9 billion in the previous year [2][3]. - Active accounts grew by 2%, from 427 million to 436 million, showing improvement from a year-over-year decline reported previously [2][3]. Business Growth Drivers - Venmo revenue growth accelerated to 20% during the quarter, indicating strong performance in this segment [4]. - Debit card payment volume saw a significant increase of over 60%, contributing positively to overall business growth [4]. - The company maintained its full-year guidance for earnings and transaction margin, expecting $6 billion to $7 billion in free cash flow and approximately $6 billion in share buybacks, with $1.5 billion already completed in Q1 [4]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, PayPal's stock experienced a decline of about 3.5%, reflecting investor concerns despite the positive adjusted earnings [5]. - The market reaction indicates that investors were not entirely satisfied with the revenue performance, which was below consensus expectations [5]. Future Outlook - PayPal's performance for the remainder of 2025 is expected to be influenced by the overall health of the global economy, with management opting not to raise full-year guidance due to economic uncertainties [6]. - Monitoring consumer spending trends will be crucial, as the company's innovative improvements may not yield favorable results if consumer spending remains weak [7].

报告显示，2025年4月，28.3%的受访德国企业表示难以对自身业务前景作出预判，较3月的24.8%明显 上升。这一比例为2022年11月以来的最高值。该数据被视为德国经济不确定性的直接反映。 报告显示，工业领域的信心受损最为严重，38.7%的企业表示难以预测自身发展，较上月激增约11个百 分点。其中，电子行业与汽车制造业的不确定感更甚，比例均超过45%。零售业中，也有约三分之一企 业表示预测困难。（央视新闻） 德国知名智库伊弗经济研究所当地时间4月29日发布的最新月度调查结果显示，德国企业对未来经营走 势的不确定性显著上升，其中制造业、电子业和汽车工业尤为突出。专家分析认为，美方持续施压的单 边贸易政策是当前不确定性加剧的主要外部因素之一。 ...

欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦：我们正处于一个充满巨大经济不确定性的时期。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall rare earth prices have declined due to weak demand expectations stemming from the trade war, while heavy rare earth prices remain stable due to export controls providing price support [1][3] - Copper prices increased by 1.15% to $9,360 per ton on LME, and 1.71% to ¥77,400 per ton on SHFE during the week [2] - Aluminum prices rose by 2.20% to $2,437.50 per ton on LME, and 1.70% to ¥20,000 per ton on SHFE [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - MP Materials, the only rare earth mine in the U.S., has ceased exports of rare earth concentrates to China, which may lead to a further contraction in global praseodymium and neodymium supply, supporting their prices [1][3] - The first quarter copper production of Anglo American Resources fell by 15% year-on-year to 168,900 tons, primarily due to a decline in Chilean output [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 658,000 tons, indicating a slight reduction in supply [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Forecasts - Gold prices fell by 3.05% to $3,300.20 per ounce, influenced by economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [3] - Lithium carbonate average price decreased by 1.9% to ¥70,100 per ton, while lithium hydroxide average price fell by 0.31% to ¥74,100 per ton [5] - Nickel prices on LME increased by 0.9% to $15,880 per ton, supported by rising costs due to new regulations in Indonesia [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net income available to common shareholders of $46.9 million, with diluted earnings per common share at $0.52. Adjusted operating earnings were $51.6 million or $0.57 per diluted common share, resulting in an adjusted operating return on tangible common equity of 13.2% and adjusted operating return on assets of 0.90% [25][32] - The tax equivalent net interest income increased to $187.9 million, up approximately $8.88 million from the previous quarter, driven by lower deposit costs [26][27] - The net interest margin expanded by 12 basis points to 3.45%, attributed to an 18 basis point reduction in the cost of funds [27][32] - Noninterest income decreased by $6 million to $29.2 million, primarily due to a decline in loan-related interest rate swap fees and other operating income [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loans held for investment decreased by $42.9 million or 0.9% annualized from the previous quarter, primarily due to declines in construction and land development loans [31] - Total deposits increased by $105.3 million or 2.1% annualized, with noninterest-bearing deposits rising by $194 million during the quarter [14][31] - The total allowance for credit losses increased to $209 million, up approximately $15.3 million from the previous quarter, reflecting increased economic uncertainty [25][32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the Greater Washington region, where it operates, is projected to be a significant AI growth hub and has a highly educated workforce [39][41] - The unemployment rate in the Greater Washington area is expected to rise but remains below the national average, providing some capacity to absorb federal job cuts [41][42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for upper single-digit loan growth in the long term, with mid-single-digit growth expected in the medium term due to current economic conditions [99][100] - The acquisition of Sandy Spring is seen as a strategic move to enhance the company's market presence, with plans to expand in North Carolina over time [52][53] - The company is focused on soundness, profitability, and growth, prioritizing these aspects in its operational strategy [33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the uncertain economic outlook and potential impacts from trade policies, but expressed confidence in asset quality and market strength [16][17] - The company does not forecast a recession for 2025, despite acknowledging the risks associated with economic uncertainty [71][128] - Management highlighted a strong pipeline for business opportunities, indicating that disruptions in the market could lead to unforeseen benefits [110] Other Important Information - The company updated its full-year 2025 financial outlook to include the expected impact of the Sandy Spring acquisition, projecting loan balances between $28 billion and $29 billion and deposit balances between $31 billion and $32 billion [70] - The company plans to complete a $2 billion commercial real estate loan sale by the end of the current quarter, which is expected to align with initial projections [58][60] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Sandy Spring deal marks - The loan mark as of March 31 is about 7% of loans, higher than the initial projection of 6% [78] Question: Credit mark changes with Sandy Spring - The credit mark came in better than projected at about 1.3% for the entire portfolio [85] Question: Risks associated with the commercial real estate loan sale - Current projections for the loan sale remain stable, with no major negative impacts anticipated [87] Question: Long-term loan growth perspective - The company aims for upper single-digit loan growth in the long term, with mid-single-digit growth expected in the medium term [99][100] Question: Current portfolio health and economic outlook - There are no significant signs of deterioration in the portfolio, but uncertainty from tariffs is being monitored closely [124][128]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net income available to common shareholders of $46.9 million, with diluted earnings per common share at $0.52. Adjusted operating earnings were $51.6 million or $0.57 per diluted common share, resulting in an adjusted operating return on tangible common equity of 13.2% and adjusted operating return on assets of 0.90% [25][32] - The tax equivalent net interest income increased to $187.9 million, up approximately $8.88 million from the previous quarter, driven by lower deposit costs and a net interest margin of 3.45%, which is a 12 basis point increase from the prior quarter [26][27] - Noninterest income decreased by $6 million to $29.2 million, primarily due to a decline in loan-related interest rate swap fees and other operating income [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loans held for investment decreased by $42.9 million or 0.9% annualized from the previous quarter, primarily due to declines in construction and land development loans, while multifamily real estate loans increased [31] - Total deposits increased by $105.3 million or 2.1% annualized, with noninterest-bearing deposits rising by $194 million, representing 22% of total deposits, up from 21% at the end of the previous quarter [14][31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company acknowledged the economic outlook's uncertainty and the potential impacts of new trade policies, but maintained confidence in asset quality and market strength [16][17] - The Greater Washington region, where the company operates, is projected to remain resilient despite expected increases in unemployment, with a strong focus on national security and defense-related sectors [39][42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for sustainable profitable growth and long-term value creation for shareholders, with a focus on soundness, profitability, and growth [33] - Following the acquisition of Sandy Spring, the company plans to leverage its expanded franchise to enhance market share and capitalize on growth opportunities in attractive markets [52][53] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate economic uncertainties and projected a low net charge-off ratio between 15 and 25 basis points for the full year 2025 [16][70] - The company updated its financial outlook for 2025, projecting loan balances between $28 billion and $29 billion and deposit balances between $31 billion and $32 billion, while expecting a full-year net interest margin between 3.75% and 4% [70][73] Other Important Information - The company has taken prudent actions to build the allowance for credit losses in response to economic uncertainty, with total allowance for credit losses increasing to $209 million [25][32] - The acquisition of Sandy Spring is expected to enhance the company's market position, with approximately 46% of the pro forma combined loan portfolio marked for credit and interest rates [35][36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Sandy Spring deal marks - The loan mark as of March 31 is about 7% of loans, approximately $800 million, which is higher than the original projection of $600 million [78] Question: Credit mark changes with Sandy Spring - The credit mark came in better than projected at about 1.3% for the entire portfolio, compared to an original estimate of 1.5% [85] Question: Risks associated with the commercial real estate loan sale - The company does not foresee major negatives affecting the projected discount for the loan sale, which remains at about 10% [87] Question: Long-term loan growth perspective - The company aims for upper single-digit loan growth in the long term, with mid-single-digit growth expected in the medium term [99] Question: Credit quality and economic outlook - There are no current signs of deterioration in the portfolio, but the company is closely monitoring the impact of tariffs and economic uncertainty [124][128]

21世纪经济报道记者舒晓婷 北京报道美国滥施关税，对其自身经济造成的冲击已经有所显现。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间4月23日，美联储发布最新一期全国经济形势调查报告（简称"褐皮书"）， 这是美国滥施关税后的第一份褐皮书，因此备受市场关注。 褐皮书显示，自上次报告以来，国际贸易政策的不确定性普遍存在，仅有五个地区经济活动略有增长， 三个地区经济活动基本保持不变，其余四个地区经济活动略有下降。 褐皮书认为，随着经济不确定性的增加，特别是围绕关税的不确定性，多个地区的前景显著恶化。 渣打中国财富方案部首席投资策略师王昕杰在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表示，相较之前的褐皮 书，此次褐皮书阐述经济活动整体变动不大，其中就业总体保持不变或略有上升。值得注意的是，本次 编撰的信息均来自4月14日之前，"关税"一词被频繁提及，贯穿了本次褐皮书的始终，其最直接的表述 也观察到了美国各地区的物价普遍上涨，企业预计关税将导致成本上升。在此背景下，"不确定性"一词 也频繁出现，传达出在关税的影响下对于未来经济的担忧。 此外，王昕杰表示，最新一期褐皮书对于"通胀"的表述量减少，一方面可能是合并进"关税"相关内容做 联动讨论，另一方面可 ...