● 本报记者 彭扬 连润 广开首席产业研究院首席金融研究员王运金分析，预计有关部门下半年将继续落实好此前已出台的各项 政策措施，如超长期特别国债发行与使用、"两重"建设、"两新"工作、新型政策性金融工具等，增强政 策持续性，充分释放政策效应。 财政部部长蓝佛安7月30日表示，加快发行和使用超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券，尽早形成实物 工作量。发挥财政资金引导和带动效应，推动各项政策效能不断释放。加大稳就业政策实施力度，有力 实施稳岗返还、税费减免、就业补贴等政策，强化重点群体就业保障。 保持流动性合理充裕 关于货币政策，会议指出，货币政策要保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性 货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。 7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究了当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 专家表示，有关部门下半年将继续落实好此前已出台的各项政策措施，增强政策的持续性，充分释放政 策效应。根据国内外经济形势变化，宏观政策将持续发力适时加力，持续巩固经济回升向好势头。 加快政府债券发行使用 会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Overview - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and to be adjusted as necessary, indicating a stable growth orientation for the second half of the year [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to fully unleash policy effects [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Measures - The Ministry of Finance announced a more proactive fiscal policy, ensuring that fiscal policies remain effective and robust, with a focus on the issuance and utilization of government bonds [2] - As of June 30, the central government had transferred 9.29 trillion yuan to local governments, and over 90% of the central budget investment had been allocated [2] - The issuance of special government bonds is expected to accelerate, with a total of 27.776 billion yuan in new special bonds issued this year, representing a 56.5% increase compared to the same period last year [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with an emphasis on ensuring ample liquidity and reducing the overall financing costs for society [4] - The central bank is expected to utilize various structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [5] - There is a possibility of further interest rate cuts, although the extent may be limited due to the narrowing net interest margins of commercial banks [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - policy in the second half of the year is set to "continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner" to promote the recovery of domestic demand and achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5% [2][3]. - The "anti - involution" policy will be steadily advanced, and it is expected that CPI and PPI will rise moderately in the second half of the year [4]. - Fiscal policy emphasizes accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds, and attention should be paid to whether there will be additional fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [4][5]. - Monetary policy maintains a loose tone, with structural monetary policy tools as the focus, and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies will be strengthened [7]. - The bond market will experience increased volatility, and the investment strategy should be defensive [8]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Macro - policy orientation - The macro - policy in the second half of the year needs to continue and increase force to consolidate the economic recovery and achieve the 5% GDP growth target. It aims to release domestic demand potential by promoting consumption and expanding effective investment [2][3]. II. "Anti - involution" and price trends - The "anti - involution" policy will be advanced to promote the balance of supply and demand and the return of prices to a reasonable level. It is expected that CPI and PPI will rise steadily in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity governance measures in key industries [4]. III. Fiscal policy - The fiscal policy is set to be more proactive. As of July 30, the cumulative issuance of local new general bonds was 538.3 billion with a progress of 67.3%, and that of local new special bonds was 277.6 billion with a progress of 63.13%. Attention should be paid to whether there will be additional fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [4][5]. IV. Monetary policy - Monetary policy will maintain a loose tone, with structural monetary policy tools as the focus. The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies will be strengthened to keep liquidity abundant and lower the comprehensive social financing cost [7]. V. Bond market strategy - The influence of the stock market on the bond market has increased, bringing re - pricing pressure on long - term bonds. The short - term risk of a bearish bond market is low. The investment strategy suggests that the 10 - year treasury bond rate of 1.75% - 1.8% has allocation value, and attention can be paid to the allocation value of short - duration and 7 - 10 - year credit bonds after adjustment [8][9].

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，研究关于制定 国民 经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划 的建议。会 议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 "整体来看，本次政治局会议对当前经济形势给予积极评价，我国经济运行稳中有进，主要经济指标表 现良好，新质生产力加快形成，高质量发展取得新成效。同时，会议也指出经济运行依然面临不少风险 挑战。当前外部环境复杂严峻，国内仍存在结构性矛盾，要增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，把握好巩固 回升态势与推进结构调整之间的平衡。"中信证券首席经济学家明明分析称。 货币政策适度宽松取向不变。本次政治局会议提及"要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，充分释放政策效应"，货币政策"适度宽松"的基调延续，和4月政治局会议"用好用足更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"也一脉相承。 值得注意的是，本次会议专门提及降成本方面的目标，新增"促进社会综合融资成本下行"表述。其他方 面，会议提及"用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸 等"，相较于4月会议"创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大 消费、稳定外贸等"的表述 ...

7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢 基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策 工具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。支持经济大省发挥挑大梁作用。强化宏 观政策取向一致性。清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩表示，下半年 宏观政策将聚焦稳增长与调结构，根据经济运行情况适时加大政策力度。财政政策将持续加码，增加重 点领域支出，如城市更新、科技创新、产业升级等；货币政策方面，预计将继续保持适度宽松的货币环 境，可能会通过降低存款准备金率等方式，向市场注入更多流动性；将更多通过各项结构性货币政策工 具，与财政政策形成配合，支持科技创新和产业升级；同时，预计将加大力度提振消费，补贴政策将从 耐用消费品扩展至文旅、餐饮等服务消费领域，加大对居民消费的补贴力度，进一步激发市场活力。此 外，将进一步强化稳岗扩就业的各项措施，包括加大对高校毕业生、农民工等重点群体的就业帮扶力 度，开展职 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meeting emphasizes the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, with a focus on implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [1][2] - The monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose orientation, with an emphasis on ensuring ample liquidity and promoting a decline in the comprehensive financing costs for society [1][2] - The meeting did not directly mention "timely interest rate cuts," but introduced a new expression regarding the goal of "promoting the decline of social comprehensive financing costs" [1][2] Group 2 - The focus on utilizing existing structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade is highlighted [2] - Analysts suggest that the necessity for new large-scale incremental policies, including interest rate cuts, has decreased due to the stable external economic environment and the observation period following previous rate cuts [2][3] - There is an expectation that the central bank may consider further interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions if necessary, to create a favorable financial environment for large-scale government bond issuance and credit allocation [3]

7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。会议指出，货币政策要保持流动性充裕，促进社会 综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外 贸等。中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，货币政策"适度宽松"取向不变。相较于4月25日召开的中央政 治局会议，在总量工具方面，本次会议不再提及"适时降准降息"；在降成本目标方面，新增"促进社会 综合融资成本下行"的表述；结构性货币政策工具方面，不再提及"创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立 新型政策性金融工具"，而是要求"用好各项结构性货币政策工具"，更多聚焦于对现有工具使用的关 注。明明预计，中国人民银行仍将维持稳中偏松的政策取向，总量工具可能仍在政策成效观察期，未来 降准降息的空间和节奏或取决于本轮经济和信用修复进度。(上证报) ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) Shanghai Headquarters is committed to addressing the reasonable financing needs of private enterprises and enhancing their financing experience through targeted policies and initiatives [1][3]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, the total balance of loans in Shanghai reached 12.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, which is 1.6 percentage points higher than the national average [1]. - The total balance of deposits in Shanghai was 22.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [1]. - The social financing scale in Shanghai increased by 8.418 billion yuan in the first half of the year, which is 3.24 billion yuan more than the previous year, effectively meeting the financing needs of the real economy [1]. Support for Private Enterprises - The PBOC Shanghai Headquarters has implemented various policies, including the "Shanghai Financial Support for High-Quality Development of the Private Economy Action Plan," to guide more financial resources towards private enterprises [3]. - In the first half of the year, the PBOC Shanghai Headquarters issued 24.43 billion yuan in targeted re-lending for agriculture and small enterprises, and provided significant support for technology-driven private enterprises [3][4]. - The average interest rate for newly issued inclusive loans to small and micro enterprises in Shanghai was 3.22%, a decrease of 67 basis points year-on-year [4]. Capital Market Development - The PBOC Shanghai Headquarters has organized activities to promote stock repurchase and increase loans for private listed companies, with over 130 projects approved by financial institutions by the end of June, nearly 80% of which were for private companies [5]. - The introduction of technology innovation bonds has facilitated private enterprises in financing and developing new productive capacities [5]. Future Plans - The PBOC Shanghai Headquarters aims to encourage banks to innovate products and services to support private enterprises in stabilizing operations and expanding employment [5]. - There will be a focus on key parks and industrial sectors to strengthen research and visits to different types of private enterprises, addressing their financing challenges [5].

Group 1 - The financial data for the first half of the year shows a trend of "one increase and one decrease," with total financing increasing while financing costs are decreasing [1] - By the end of June, the stock of social financing increased by 8.9% year-on-year, M2 money supply grew by 8.3%, and RMB loans rose by 7.1%, indicating reasonable growth in financial totals [1] - The average interest rates for newly issued corporate loans, personal housing loans, and corporate credit bonds have all declined, reflecting the effectiveness of financial support for the real economy [1] Group 2 - The government has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, characterized by ample liquidity and low comprehensive financing costs [2] - In May, a package of financial support measures was introduced to boost market confidence and stabilize social expectations, resulting in a continued low level of loan interest rates [2] - The People's Bank of China has increased and optimized the quotas for certain tools, enhancing support for technology innovation and small enterprises, with specific allocations for various sectors [2] Group 3 - The moderately loose monetary policy is expected to continue, with the effects of previously implemented policies still to be fully realized [3] - Financial totals are anticipated to maintain reasonable growth, with structural monetary policy tools focusing on key areas such as technology innovation and consumption [3] - The principles of "focusing on key areas, being reasonable and moderate, and having both advances and retreats" will guide the use of structural monetary policy tools [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that in the first half of the year, new RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, with a total loan balance of 268.56 trillion yuan as of the end of June, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [1] - Corporate loans accounted for 89.5% of the new loans, with an increase of 11.57 trillion yuan, indicating a 6.6 percentage point rise compared to the same period last year [1] - Long-term loans for enterprises reached 7.17 trillion yuan, representing over 60% of corporate loans, supporting long-term investments and operations [1] Group 2 - Household loans increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, with 923.9 billion yuan directed towards operational loans, showing strong support for individual businesses and small enterprises [1] - The financial support for individual businesses and small enterprises is crucial for stimulating market vitality, promoting employment, and driving innovation [2] - New loans were primarily directed towards key sectors such as manufacturing and infrastructure, with manufacturing long-term loans increasing by 8.7% and infrastructure loans by 7.4% [2] Group 3 - As of the end of May, the balance of loans under the "Five Major Articles" reached 103.3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14%, indicating robust financial support for the real economy [3] - Technology loans amounted to 43.3 trillion yuan, growing by 12% year-on-year, while green, inclusive, pension, and digital loans saw growth rates of 27.4%, 11.2%, 38%, and 9.5% respectively [3] - The central bank's implementation of moderately loose monetary policy and new support measures effectively incentivized financial institutions to meet the financing needs of the real economy [3]