Core Viewpoint - The development of green electricity and green certificate markets is essential for promoting a green and low-carbon energy structure, stimulating market vitality, guiding green consumption, and facilitating the green transformation of the economy and society [1][2]. Group 1: Green Electricity and Green Certificate Market Development - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have issued guidelines to promote the high-quality development of the green electricity certificate market, focusing on stabilizing supply, stimulating demand, and improving mechanisms [1]. - The transition from passive compliance to active choice in green electricity consumption is encouraged, aiming to create a virtuous ecosystem where enterprises actively consume green electricity and collaborate across the supply chain [1]. Group 2: Mechanisms and Incentives - A combination of mandatory and voluntary green certificate consumption mechanisms is proposed, targeting high-energy-consuming and high-emission industries to enhance green electricity consumption [2]. - The establishment of a tiered green electricity consumption ratio is suggested, with support for companies exceeding their consumption targets through government purchases, subsidies, and tax incentives [1][2]. Group 3: Integration with Carbon Markets - The integration of green electricity and certificates with carbon markets and sustainable disclosure standards is emphasized, providing diverse pathways for achieving carbon neutrality [2]. - Companies are encouraged to include green certificate purchases in their ESG reports and to disclose their green electricity consumption progress [2]. Group 4: Financial Support for Green Electricity Consumption - The development of supply chain financial products based on green electricity consumption is advocated, including green electricity receivables financing and credit loans [3]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to offer preferential loan terms and establish green electricity consumption interest subsidy loans for qualifying enterprises [3]. Group 5: International Standards and Cooperation - Accelerating alignment with international green certificate standards is crucial, with a focus on enhancing the recognition of "Chinese green certificates" in global markets [4]. - The establishment of international green supply chain alliances is encouraged to set unified emission reduction goals and certification standards, facilitating collaborative carbon reduction efforts [4].

当前新能源发电行业正处于政策逐步明朗化阶段。随着 136 号文的实施，未来 新增项目的机制电量和电价情况将更加清晰。国家对于绿电消纳问题提出了解 • 福建省投资集团启动永泰抽蓄项目 51%股权的注入程序，未来平海湾三期 等优质资产也在持续开发中。这些资产的注入将推动中闽能源长期利润中 枢迈上新台阶。 • 中闽能源作为福建省内核心海风运营平台，拥有丰富且优质的海风资源。 福建省海风资源是国内最优质的绿电资源之一，目前电价逐步回归合理区 间，整体资产价值回升显著。 决方案，这将提高绿电板块长期投资回报的确定性，并推动整个行业进入更加 理性的状态，从而改善供需关系。此外，一些细节上的边际改善，如现金流改 善、国补发放加速，也值得期待。这些政策变化为新能源发电行业的发展提供 了良好的环境，有助于提升项目回报率。 中闽能源 20250428 摘要 • 中闽能源海上风电项目利用小时数和发电效率突出，直配项目电价较高， 保证了投资收益率。控股股东福建省投资开发集团承诺注入平海湾三期等 资产，增强公司成长性和盈利能力。 • 新能源发电行业政策逐步明朗化，136 号文的实施将使新增项目机制电量 和电价更加清晰。绿电消纳解决方案 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" and is maintained [12] Core Insights - The heavy stockholding ratio of public funds in the utility sector decreased to 0.96% in Q1 2025, down 0.37 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a continued decline in allocation [2][6] - Despite the overall decline in holdings, certain companies, particularly in the thermal power sector, have seen an increase in investment due to favorable pricing in their operational regions [2][7] - The report emphasizes a shift towards alpha-focused investments over beta, highlighting the importance of risk-reward ratios in the green energy sector [2][9] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Overview - In Q1 2025, the public fund's heavy stockholding ratio in the utility sector was 0.96%, with a historical percentile of 37.7% and an underweight ratio of -2.03% [19][20] - The electricity sector's holding ratio was 0.94%, with thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and renewable energy holding ratios at 40.83%, 47.12%, 3.27%, and 8.71% respectively [20] Thermal Power - The thermal power sector saw a decline in overall holdings, with major companies like China Huadian International becoming a consensus target for investment due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and better pricing [7][26] - The decline in holdings is attributed to adjustments in long-term contract prices and a shift in market style favoring more aggressive assets [26][27] Hydropower - Hydropower holdings continued to decrease, but core assets like Yangtze Power maintained high valuations, with attractive dividend yields compared to government bonds [8][35] - The sector's valuation has become appealing after adjustments since Q3 2024, with significant dividend value highlighted [35] Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector's holdings decreased, but leading companies like Longyuan Power and Zhongmin Energy saw increased investments, reflecting a focus on high-reward opportunities [9][43] - The report suggests that the sector is poised for a rebound as supportive policies for green energy consumption become clearer [43] Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector's holdings dropped significantly due to concerns over profit expectations linked to falling electricity prices, but the long-term value remains intact as new production cycles begin [10][27]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 电力 迎峰度夏将至，重视煤价后置下的火电机会 本周行情回顾：本周（4.21-4.25）上证指数报收 3,295.06 点，上涨 0.56%， 沪深 300 指数报收 3786.99 点，上涨 0.38%。中信电力及公用事业指数 报收 2894.72 点，上涨 2.06%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.68pct，位列 30 个 中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 8 位。 本周行业观点： 投资建议：电力公司业绩陆续发布，基本面支撑与市场风格共振，重视电 力投资机会布局。迎峰度夏将至，本周煤价下跌至 665 元/吨附近，成本 超预期下跌支撑度电盈利改善，重视火电超额机会，建议关注重点火电标 的：华电国际、皖能电力、浙能电力、华能国际、建投能源；以及火电改 造设备龙头：青达环保。推荐布局低估绿电板块，推荐优先关注低估港股 绿电以及风电运营商，建议关注新天绿色能源（H）、龙源电力（H）、中 闽能源、福能股份。把握水核防御，水电板块，建议关注长江电力、国投 电力、川投能源、华能水电；核电板块，建议关注中国核电和中国广核。 风险提示：原料价格超预 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 电力 迎峰度夏将至，重视煤价后置下的火电机会 本周行情回顾：本周（4.21-4.25）上证指数报收 3,295.06 点，上涨 0.56%， 沪深 300 指数报收 3786.99 点，上涨 0.38%。中信电力及公用事业指数 报收 2894.72 点，上涨 2.06%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.68pct，位列 30 个 中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 8 位。 本周行业观点： -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 电力 沪深300 作者 分析师 张津铭 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com 分析师 高紫明 执业证书编号：S0680524100001 邮箱：gaoziming@gszq.com 投资建议：电力公司业绩陆续发布，基本面支撑与市场风格共振，重视电 力投资机会布局。迎峰度夏将至，本周煤价下跌至 665 元/吨附近，成本 超预期下跌支撑度电盈利改善，重视火电超额机会，建议关注重点火电标 的 ...

Core Viewpoint - 京能电力 announced a distribution plan for the fiscal year 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 1.2 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling approximately 803 million yuan, which represents 46.62% of its net profit and a dividend yield of 3.54% based on the average trading price for the year [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, 京能电力 reported total revenue of 35.428 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.54%. The net profit reached 1.723 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 95.52%. The basic earnings per share were 0.23 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 6.84% [2]. Historical Distribution Overview - Since its listing, 京能电力 has implemented a total of 24 cash distributions. The most recent distribution plan for 2024 is compared to previous years, showing a consistent trend in dividend payments, with the 2023 distribution being 1.05 yuan per 10 shares and the 2022 distribution being 1.2 yuan per 10 shares [1][2]. Market Activity - The stock experienced a net inflow of 18.79 million yuan from major funds today, with a total net inflow of 40.48 million yuan over the past five days [3]. - The latest margin financing balance for the stock is 309 million yuan, which has decreased by 1.95 million yuan over the past five days, representing a decline of 0.63% [4]. Industry Comparison - In the public utility sector, 京能电力's cash distribution of 803.34 million yuan ranks it among the top companies, with 新奥股份 leading at 6.327 billion yuan, followed by 中国广核 and 华能国际 with distributions of 4.797 billion yuan and 4.238 billion yuan, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the electricity sector [3] Core Viewpoints - March electricity consumption growth was 4.8%, highlighting the importance of coal power upgrades and flexible regulation value [10][12] - The national electricity consumption in March reached 828.2 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [12] - The new three-year coal power upgrade plan emphasizes deep peak regulation and energy-saving carbon reduction [11][12] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In March, the electricity consumption by industry was as follows: primary industry 10.6 billion kWh (9.9% growth), secondary industry 557.8 billion kWh (3.8% growth), tertiary industry 148.4 billion kWh (8.4% growth), and urban and rural residents 111.4 billion kWh (5.0% growth) [12][66] - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to March was 238.46 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [66] Power Generation - In March, industrial power generation was 778 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [12] - Coal power generation in March decreased by 2.3%, while hydroelectric and nuclear power generation increased by 9.5% and 23.0%, respectively [12][10] Coal Power Upgrade Plan - The new coal power upgrade plan (2025-2027) aims to enhance existing units and establish new ones with improved performance metrics [11][12] - Key upgrade indicators include minimum output levels, load change rates, and carbon emission reductions [11][12] Investment Recommendations - Focus on coal power sector opportunities, with coal prices dropping to 674 RMB/ton, supporting improved profitability [13] - Recommended stocks include Huadian International, Waneng Power, and Zhejiang Energy, among others [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company has a strong integrated coal-electricity-aluminum business model with strategic advantages in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Henan, indicating medium to long-term growth potential [1] Group 1: Electrolytic Aluminum Business - The company has established a competitive advantage with 800,000 tons/year capacity in Xinjiang and 900,000 tons/year in Yunnan, achieving significant cost advantages [2] - Xinjiang's production is stable with self-sufficient power covering 90% of electricity needs, while Yunnan benefits from high green electricity ratios and low electricity prices during peak water periods [2] Group 2: Coal Business - The company operates in a key coal production area with a total capacity of 8.55 million tons/year, maintaining strong profitability despite rising costs [2] - The average selling price of coal is projected to be around 1,020 RMB/ton in 2024, with production expected to recover to 7.2 million tons in 2025 [2] Group 3: Aluminum Foil Business - The company has a total aluminum foil capacity of 140,000 tons/year and is expanding with an additional 110,000 tons/year under construction, showcasing competitive advantages in technology and environmental standards [3] - In 2024, the aluminum foil sales volume reached 69,600 tons, generating revenue of 4.015 billion RMB, with a net profit of 64 million RMB [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to benefit from the industry's trend towards environmental protection and carbon reduction, with projected net profits of 4.92 billion RMB, 6.01 billion RMB, and 6.41 billion RMB for 2025-2027 [4] - The company is rated as a "buy" based on its integrated business model and growth prospects [4]

Summary of China Energy Engineering Corporation Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call discusses China Energy Engineering Corporation (中国能建) and its performance in the construction and energy sectors for 2024 and early 2025 [3][5]. Key Points Industry and Market Position - The overall construction sector is under pressure, but China Energy Engineering has achieved stable growth by leveraging innovation, green technology, data integration, and collaboration [3]. - The company has signed new contracts worth over 1.4 trillion RMB in 2024, with overseas contracts reaching 320 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of nearly 15% [3][5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on hydrogen energy and energy storage, collaborating with CATL to advance electrochemical storage [3][4]. - Significant projects include the world's first 300 MW compressed air energy storage project in Hubei and multiple planned projects in Shandong and Jiuquan, expected to be operational by 2025-2026 [3][4]. Investment Plans - China Energy Engineering plans to invest approximately 150 billion RMB, prioritizing strategic emerging industries such as new energy, pumped storage, ultra-high voltage, and digital information, which will account for over 60% of total investments [3][6]. - The company maintains a strict investment return rate of over 7%, with some innovative projects allowed to have lower returns [6]. Data Center and Computing Infrastructure - The company has established five out of eight planned data center nodes, with the Gansu Qinyang project being a flagship initiative that integrates source, network, load, and storage, achieving a cost reduction of 10%-15% [7][8]. - The total planned investment for computing infrastructure is around 17 billion RMB, excluding supporting new energy projects, with multiple projects expected to be completed by 2025-2026 [14]. Domestic Market Development - The company has completed preliminary arrangements for eight major computing center nodes, with five already operational, including significant market share in Gansu Qinyang [11]. - The company is also expanding into the East China and Sichuan-Chongqing regions for data center construction [11]. Future Growth Expectations - The company aims to exceed 20 GW of installed new energy capacity by 2025, with significant revenue growth observed since 2020, although profit improvement remains a focus [17]. - The transition from traditional energy to new energy is expected to accelerate, benefiting from early transformation and dual carbon goals [17]. International Expansion - The overseas business primarily focuses on energy construction, with 55% in new energy and smart energy sectors, and significant projects in Spain and along the Belt and Road Initiative [18]. Computing Business Plans - The computing projects in Qinyang are set to be completed between 2023 and 2026, with a total investment exceeding 30 billion RMB across various projects [19][20]. Additional Insights - The company emphasizes the importance of green energy as a critical component of future industry development, with stable supply and pricing being key to rapid growth in computing capabilities [10].

Q&A 中国铝业 20250319 摘要 中国铝业在产业链布局方面的优势和现状如何？ 中国铝业在铝产业链上的布局非常完善，涵盖了从铝土矿、氧化铝到电解铝的 完整产业链。公司拥有 3,000 万吨的铝土矿资源，2000 多万吨的氧化铝产能， 以及 3.2GW 的自有电力。此外，公司在宁夏拥有四个煤矿，每年产量约 1,300 万吨。2024 年，中国铝业旗下包头铝业和青海分公司逐步投产，使得上市公司 体内的电解铝产能达到 773 万吨左右，并参股广西华磊 40 万吨电解铝项目，总 权益产能超过 430 万吨。2025 年 3 月，公司公告将包头铝业旗下华银三期股权 • 中国铝业电解铝总权益产能约 773 万吨，受益于包头铝业和青海分公司投 产，并参股广西华磊项目，权益产能超 430 万吨。2025 年预计新增 8 万吨 权益产能，电解铝业务是公司核心增长点。 • 公司氧化铝名义总产能 2,226 万吨，但部分停滞，氧化铝自给率超 60%， 受氧化锌价格下跌影响较小。电解铅总产能 773 吨，2025 年将通过收购增 加 8 吨，氧化铝业务利润贡献或将减少。 • 能源板块以宁夏煤炭（年产约 1,300 万吨）和发电 ...