Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The new trust registration regulations are expected to impact approximately 1.82 trillion yuan of non-standard financial products, as the new standards will restrict the pre-registration of trust plans with a single financing party [4][11]. - The recent half-year reports from banks reveal a divergence in performance within the wealth management sector, with some institutions experiencing a growth rate of up to 17% in their existing product scales [4][12]. - The cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.31%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, while money market funds saw a slight decline to 1.19% [5][13]. - The overall bond market remains in a fluctuating state, with short-term rates supported by the central bank's liquidity measures, while long-term rates face pressure from external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [5][16]. - The bank wealth management product's net loss rate decreased to 2.11%, down by 0.94 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in the market sentiment [6][21]. Summary by Sections Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The implementation of new trust registration standards is set to affect the structure of wealth management products, pushing banks to shift from a "one-to-one" non-standard channel model to a "composite investment" approach for better risk diversification [4][11]. - The performance of wealth management businesses is becoming increasingly polarized, with banks that have established wealth management subsidiaries showing positive growth, while those without are facing contraction [4][12]. Yield Performance - Cash management products maintained a 7-day annualized yield of 1.31%, while money market funds decreased slightly to 1.19%, resulting in a yield differential of 0.13% [5][13]. - Various fixed-income products have shown a rebound in annualized yields, reflecting the ongoing adjustments in the bond market [5][16]. Net Loss Rate Tracking - The net loss rate for bank wealth management products is currently at 2.11%, indicating a decrease and suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [6][21].

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in the bond market, particularly in long-term bond prices, have attracted significant market attention [1] - The adjustment in the bond market is believed to be relatively sufficient, with several supporting factors still in place [2] - The primary reasons for the current bond market adjustment include the "see-saw" effect between the stock and bond markets, high market congestion in the bond market, and short-term emotional disturbances due to new policies and trade negotiations [1][2] Group 2 - The investment logic in the bond market may be shifting, with a greater focus on the performance of the stock market impacting bond market dynamics [2] - If the stock market continues to reach new highs, the bond market may face ongoing pressure; conversely, if the stock market adjusts, the bond market may experience a rebound [2] - Current conditions suggest that the bond market's adjustment space is limited, and there is potential investment value, especially if further declines occur due to overreaction [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Gold futures prices have strongly broken through, with London spot gold surpassing the $3,500 per ounce mark and COMEX gold futures hitting a new high. Multiple institutions predict that after a four - month consolidation, precious metals may start a new upward trend. Morgan Stanley has set the year - end target price of gold at $3,800 per ounce [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity remains loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. The external risks are gradually easing, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increases, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue [3][9][10]. 3. Summaries by Catalog a. Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, and gold shows a convergent breakthrough. Trump's attempt to fire Fed governors and the USGS's proposal on silver import tariffs, along with dovish signals from the Fed and weak employment data, are positive for precious metals. However, inflation rebound, geopolitical risk reduction, and other factors limit the upside of gold. In the long - term, gold is still supported [2][18]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small and medium - cap stocks correcting significantly. The domestic market has a high probability of continued market trends, but one needs to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. Different indexes have different characteristics in terms of risk and return [3][9][10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the copper price may fluctuate within a range [3][19]. b. Main News on the Day - **International News**: Trump's government will request the Supreme Court to expedite the ruling on the global tariff case to overturn the federal court's decision that multiple tariffs are illegal. Market analysts believe that corporate bond issuance and budget concerns in developed countries are the main reasons for the stock market decline [4]. - **Domestic News**: China will expand the scope of visa - free countries, implementing a visa - free policy for Russian ordinary passport holders from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [5]. - **Industry News**: In August 2025, there were 2.65 million new A - share accounts, a year - on - year and month - on - month significant increase [6]. c. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on September 1 and 2, 2025, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. [7] d. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined, and the domestic market has a high probability of continued trends, with different indexes having different risk - return characteristics [9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The market funds are loosening, and the equity market is volatile. The stock - bond seesaw effect continues, and one should pay attention to the impact of the equity market on the bond market [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose at night. Geopolitical factors affect oil exports, and the OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. One should follow up on OPEC's production increase [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate and coal - to - olefin plant operating rate changed, and the coastal inventory is at a relatively high level. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - **Other Energy and Chemical Products**: Rubber may continue to correct in the short term; polyolefin prices are generally weak; glass and soda ash futures are weak, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and consumption in autumn [14][16][17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, with multiple factors influencing their trends, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payroll data [18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night, with multiple factors affecting it, and it may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Other Metals**: Zinc may fluctuate weakly within a range; the short - term trend of lithium carbonate is affected by emotions, and one should be cautious about short - selling; iron ore is expected to be bullish in the medium - term; the steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand; double - coking products are in a high - level oscillation state; protein meal is expected to fluctuate narrowly; oils and fats are expected to continue to oscillate; sugar and cotton are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; the container shipping European line may oscillate in the short term [20][22][23].

Group 1 - The market experienced a significant increase in equity assets while bond market sentiment was suppressed, leading to a steepening yield curve with long-term yields rising sharply [1] - The 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond yields were recorded at 1.40%, 1.63%, 1.84%, and 2.14% respectively, with changes of -1.53, 6.12, 13.35, and 19.25 basis points compared to the end of July [1] - The "stock-bond" effect has shifted to a "double bull" market due to rising interest rate cut expectations and improved economic conditions, with the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.8% [1] Group 2 - The funding environment remained reasonably ample, with short-term performance expected to be relatively stable as the central bank continued to support liquidity [2] - The central bank conducted a 600 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation in August, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, and maintained flexible short-term liquidity tools [2] - Government bond issuance has progressed rapidly, with net issuance of 4.67 trillion yuan in national bonds and 5.7 trillion yuan in local bonds by the end of August, leading to a decrease in net financing impact on the funding environment [2] Group 3 - The stock market showed strong performance driven by low interest rates and a significant inflow of funds, with a notable increase in financing balances and daily trading volumes [3] - The "anti-involution" narrative has gained traction, with the PMI raw material purchase price index rising to 53.3% and the factory price index at 49.1%, indicating a positive shift in pricing dynamics [3] - The bond market's long-end is under pressure due to the steepening yield curve and improved trading sentiment, suggesting a return to a range-bound trend in the absence of significant changes in funding and economic fundamentals [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the market is likely to maintain the current stock - bond performance, and the headwind period for the bond market is not over yet [3][25] - The relatively weak PMI data in August and the high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may lead to further loosening of the domestic aggregate policy in the fourth quarter [3][25] - After the two major macro - events in September (domestic military parade and whether the Fed cuts interest rates) are settled, the bond market may enter a favorable period at the end of September and in the fourth quarter [3][25] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Bond Last Week Data Review - **Funds Rate**: DR001 was basically at 1.32% from August 25th to 29th, down about 9BP from last week, and closed at 1.33% on August 29th; R001 first decreased and then increased, closing at a weekly high of 1.42% on August 29th. DR007 hovered around 1.51% from August 25th to 29th and closed at 1.52% on August 29th. FR007 dropped 4BP from 1.58% on August 25th to 1.54% on August 26th and returned to 1.52% on August 29th [8] - **Open - Market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase投放 volume reached 2.29 trillion yuan, with a total maturity volume of 2122 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of 166.1 billion yuan, the smallest net injection this month [8] - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread narrowed. The US 6 - month SOFR rate slightly rose from 4.04% on August 25th to 4.02% on August 29th; the Chinese 6 - month SHIBOR rate remained stable at 1.61%. As of August 29th, the 6 - month interest rate spread was - 241BP, and the inversion narrowed slightly. The 2 - year/10 - year spreads were - 218BP and - 239BP respectively, with the long - and short - end spreads narrowing slightly [18] - **Term Spread**: The term spread of Chinese bonds slightly widened, while that of US bonds gradually narrowed. The 2 - year Chinese bond yield was 1.40%, and the 10 - year was 1.84%, with a 10 - 2 - year spread of 43BP. The US bond yield fell slightly, with the 2 - year yield down 14BP to 3.59% and the 10 - year down 5BP to 4.23%, and the 10 - 2 - year spread widened to 64BP [18] - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: The Chinese bond yield curve shifted upward, and the US bond yield curve shifted slightly downward. Except for the 10 - year Chinese bond yield rising 7BP, the overall change was small. The 3 - month and 2 - 3 - year yields decreased by 1 - 2BP, and the 1 - year and 5 - year yields rose 1BP. The US bond yield decreased by more than 5BP overall, with the 2 - year yield down 14BP (the largest decline) and the 3 - 5 - year yields down 10BP [19] 2. Real Estate High - Frequency Data Tracking - **First - Tier Cities**: The overall transaction volume of commercial housing in first - tier cities remained low and volatile. The average daily transaction area was 61,400 square meters, and the average daily transaction volume was 544 units. August 29th was the weekly high, with a transaction area of 73,200 square meters and 640 units, also the highest in the past two weeks; August 25th was the weekly low, with a transaction area of 56,400 square meters and 500 units [26][27] - **Ten Major Cities**: The transaction data of commercial housing in ten major cities rebounded compared with last week. The average daily transaction area was about 113,900 square meters, an increase of 19,000 square meters per day compared with last week. In 2021, the average daily transaction area was about 254,900 square meters [27] - **30 Large and Medium - Sized Cities**: The transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities remained at a historical low. The average daily transaction area was about 240,000 square meters, and the average daily transaction volume was about 2225 units. August 28th was the weekly peak [27]

Market Overview - In August, driven by a series of policies, market risk appetite increased, leading the Shanghai Composite Index to break a 10-year high, with a continued stock-bond seesaw effect [1][25] - Bond funds and deposits from residents and enterprises flowed into higher-yielding non-bank sectors, suppressing bond market sentiment, while the 10-year government bond yield exceeded 1.8% [1][25] - The average daily trading volume of government bond futures in August was 417,000 contracts, a month-on-month increase of 39.41% [5] Economic Indicators - Domestic real estate investment, sales, and price declines continued to expand, indicating weak demand [1][25] - The central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain reasonable liquidity in the market, which will provide some support for the bond market, especially for short-term government bond futures [1][25] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is experiencing a shift as funds continue to flow into non-bank sectors, which may lead to further weakening of government bond futures prices [1][25] - The Ministry of Finance has resumed the collection of value-added tax on government bonds and financial bonds, which may increase the tax burden on new bonds and widen the price differences across varieties [1][25] Financing and Supply - As of the end of August, the bond market's outstanding scale exceeded 191.71 trillion yuan, with net financing of 17,571 billion yuan in August, maintaining a high level [18] - The government is expected to continue high levels of bond financing, with a cumulative increase of 10.2 trillion yuan in government and local government bonds by August [21] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds will continue, with bond market sentiment likely to remain suppressed as funds flow into higher-yielding sectors [1][25] - The central bank's monetary policy will play a crucial role in stabilizing the economy and supporting the bond market amid external uncertainties and domestic demand weaknesses [1][25]

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a limited upward space for the 10-year government bond yield, which has reached around 1.8%, with a slight rebound observed recently despite a strong stock market environment [1][6] - The central bank's liquidity provision remains focused on maintaining a balanced and relatively loose funding environment, with significant net injections through various operations in August [1][5] - The economic fundamentals show signs of improvement, but the demand side remains weak, with the manufacturing PMI still below the expansion threshold, indicating that demand-side recovery is still under observation [4][6] Group 2 - The bond market faces headwinds due to weak demand pressures, subdued financing needs, and a reasonably ample funding environment, which are key supporting factors for the bond market [2][4] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to rising industrial prices, creating expectations for future credit expansion, which continues to suppress bond market performance [2][4] - The overall liquidity is expected to remain reasonably ample, with no basis for tightening monetary policy, as the economy is still in the early stages of a wide credit cycle [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the financial products industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the government bond index experienced a "sideways-down-bottoming" trend in August, with expectations for a potential recovery in September [1][3]. - The macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with weak PMI and PPI data, but moderate consumption growth, indicating a cautious outlook for the economy [3][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming macroeconomic data and policy decisions, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which could influence domestic monetary policy [40][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The government bond index displayed a "sideways-down-bottoming" pattern from August 1 to August 29, 2025, with fluctuations influenced by central bank operations and market sentiment [12][20]. - Technical analysis indicates that the risk level of the government bond index reached a low point on August 22, suggesting a potential for a rebound [25][26]. 2. Event-Driven Review 2.1. Macroeconomic Aspects - Recent macroeconomic data, including a PMI of 49.3% in July and a CPI increase of 0.4%, reflect a mixed economic outlook, with implications for bond market performance [29][30]. - The report notes that the July industrial output growth of 5.7% shows signs of slowing, which could negatively impact bond pricing [31][32]. 2.2. Policy Aspects - The report discusses recent policy announcements, including the introduction of new financial tools by the National Development and Reform Commission, which may increase bond supply and affect interest rates [35][36]. - The announcement of VAT on new bond interest income is expected to impact market dynamics, particularly for newly issued bonds [37][38]. 3. Index Outlook 3.1. Key Event Forecast - Future bond market performance will be driven by macroeconomic data, policy developments, and liquidity events, with a focus on upcoming economic indicators [40][41]. - The report anticipates that if macroeconomic data improves, it could suppress bond market demand, while weaker data may bolster bond prices [41]. 3.2. Index Trend Outlook - The report suggests that the bond market is nearing a bottom, with limited downside potential in the short term, and highlights the importance of equity market movements as a key variable for bond market performance [46][47]. - The report indicates that if equity markets experience a pullback, funds may flow back into the bond market, presenting potential investment opportunities [60]. 3.3. Related ETF Products - The report mentions the "Fuguo Zhongzhai 7-10 Year Policy Financial Bond ETF," which aims to closely track the index and has a total market value of 46.546 billion yuan as of August 29, 2025 [61][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market in September may break the seasonal pattern and still present long - trading opportunities. The latest PMI data shows a marginal improvement in the fundamentals, but the effective demand remains weak. Mid - to long - term interest rates are expected to decline. The seasonal weakness in September may have been adjusted in August. The central bank is supportive of bond market liquidity, and institutional behavior signals still suggest long - trading. Currently, one can focus on the spread compression opportunity between the new 30 - year bond 25 Special 06 and 25 Special 02 [2]. - From a seasonal perspective, the bond market usually corrects in September, but the current market sentiment has improved significantly, and the number of institutions bearish on the bond market has decreased notably [3]. - Most fixed - income buyers hold a neutral view, with over 80% of them remaining neutral [3]. - The basis of the T - contract is at a historical high, and the curve can still be steepened [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Seller and Buyer Markets 3.1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.1, and the unweighted index is 0.14, up 0.11 from last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 7 bullish, 19 neutral, and 3 bearish. 24% of institutions are bullish, citing the attractiveness of the 10 - year Treasury yield around 1.8%, weak fundamentals, and expected central bank easing. 66% are neutral, concerned about the "stock - bond seesaw" effect and incomplete institutional duration adjustment. 10% are bearish, worried about stock market rallies, inflation expectations, and subsequent pro - growth policies [12]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index is 0.02, and the unweighted index is 0.03, down 0.03 from last week. Institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 3 bullish, 24 neutral, and 2 bearish. 10% of institutions are bullish, citing credit contraction, the improved cost - effectiveness of the bond market, and central bank support. 83% are neutral, believing that the bond market is gradually desensitized to equities. 7% are bearish, concerned that a stronger stock market may raise the interest - rate center [13]. 3.1.3 Credit Bonds - The scale of "fixed - income +" funds is expanding, which may support the demand for medium - to high - grade, medium - to short - duration non - financial credit bonds, but the current increase is limited. The stock - bond seesaw effect still exists, and a rising stock market may continue to pressure long - term bonds [18]. 3.1.4 Convertible Bonds - Institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view this week, with 11 bullish and 4 neutral. 73% are bullish, believing that the logic of incremental funds driving the equity market remains valid. 27% are neutral, concerned about high valuations and increased market divergence [20]. 3.2 Treasury Futures Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices have risen across the board. As of August 29, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 102.42 yuan, 105.52 yuan, 107.81 yuan, and 116.55 yuan respectively, up 0.10 yuan, 0.14 yuan, 0.15 yuan, and 0.57 yuan from last Friday. - Open interest has increased across the board. As of August 29, the open interest of TS/TF/T/TL contracts is 67,000 lots, 113,000 lots, 178,000 lots, and 121,000 lots respectively, up 38,948 lots, 5,654 lots, 16,595 lots, and 10,567 lots from last Friday. - Trading volume has decreased across the board. As of August 29, the 5 - day moving average trading volume of TS/TF/T/TL contracts is 84.7 billion yuan, 84.1 billion yuan, 120.6 billion yuan, and 212.2 billion yuan respectively, down 43.223 billion yuan, 29.834 billion yuan, 37.99 billion yuan, and 54.024 billion yuan from last Friday. - The trading volume - to - open - interest ratio has decreased across the board. As of August 29, the 5 - day moving average trading volume - to - open - interest ratio of TS/TF/T/TL contracts is 0.65, 0.77, 0.70, and 1.74 respectively, down 0.92, 0.62, 1.16, and 2.20 from last Friday [24][25]. 3.2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30 - year Treasury bonds has decreased. On August 29, it was 4.48%, down 0.94 percentage points from last week and 0.79 percentage points from Monday, with a weekly average of 3.99%. The weekly average turnover rate of interest - rate bonds has decreased. On August 29, it was 0.78%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 0.19 percentage points from Monday. The turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds has increased. On August 29, it was 4.71%, up 0.62 percentage points from last week and down 1.03 percentage points from Monday [32][35]. 3.2.3 Basis Trading - Except for the basis of the TS main contract, which has widened, the basis of other main contracts has narrowed. As of August 29, the basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.04 yuan, 0.05 yuan, 0.44 yuan, and 0.71 yuan respectively, down 0.07 yuan, 0.02 yuan, 0.13 yuan, and 0.23 yuan from last Friday. - The net basis of all main contracts has narrowed. As of August 29, the net basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is 0.001 yuan, 0.08 yuan, 0.12 yuan, and 0.21 yuan respectively, down 0.02 yuan, 0.003 yuan, 0.09 yuan, and 0.18 yuan from last Friday. - The IRR of all main contracts has increased. As of August 29, the IRR (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is 1.51%, 1.25%, 1.13%, and 1.01% respectively, up 0.33%, 0.04%, 0.29%, and 0.44% from last Friday [39][42]. 3.2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - variety Spread - In terms of inter - delivery spreads, the spreads of TS and TF main futures contracts have widened, while those of T and TL main futures contracts have narrowed. As of August 29, the near - to - far spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are - 0.07 yuan, 0.14 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and 0.46 yuan respectively, down 0.07 yuan, up 0.04 yuan, down 0.01 yuan, and down 0.08 yuan from last Friday. - In terms of inter - variety spreads, except for the 3*T - TL futures contract, whose spread has narrowed, the spreads of other main futures contracts have widened. As of August 29, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL are 99.33 yuan, 103.21 yuan, 301.86 yuan, and 206.90 yuan respectively, up 0.06 yuan, 0.13 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and down 0.17 yuan from last Friday [49][50].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In August, manufacturing PMI in both the US and Europe exceeded expectations, indicating economic resilience, which may lead the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, catalyzing a recovery trade [1] - Domestic PMI data for August shows stabilization in manufacturing, improvement in services, and a decline in construction [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share market has accelerated since August, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking key levels and daily trading volume reaching 30 trillion yuan multiple times [2] - The technology sector is experiencing a significant influx of funds, indicating a cycle of acceleration in both market performance and capital flow [2] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery in the first half of the week (August 25-29), but optimism in equity markets persisted, leading to a lack of downward momentum in the bond market [1] - The relative attractiveness of equities compared to bonds has begun to decrease as equity prices continue to rise while the bond market adjusts [1] Group 4: Commodity Insights - The expectation of financial conditions easing before the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is beneficial for gold performance in the short term [5] - Oil demand is projected to be weak over the next 25 years, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on oil prices [4]