Market Overview - The bond market returned to a weak state on July 18, with most government bond futures closing lower and interbank bond yields generally rising by 0.5-1 basis points [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan in the open market, while short-term funding rates continued to decline [1][6] Bond Futures and Yields - The 30-year main contract fell by 0.22% to 120.460, the 10-year main contract decreased by 0.08% to 108.790, and the 5-year main contract dropped by 0.05% to 105.990 [2] - The yield on the 10-year "25附息国债11" rose by 0.5 basis points to 1.666%, while the 30-year "25超长特别国债02" increased by 0.75 basis points to 1.875% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield rising by 1.06 basis points to 3.896% and the 10-year yield falling by 0.80 basis points to 4.449% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down by 2.8 basis points to 1.53% [4] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Institutions believe that the low-volatility bond market trend continues, with expectations of policy adjustments increasing towards the end of July [1][8] - According to Zhongjin Company, if the Federal Reserve Chair leaves office early, it would negatively impact the dollar and positively affect gold, while Southwest Securities noted that convertible bond valuations are at a relatively low level [7][8] Fund Flows and Liquidity - The central bank announced a 1.875 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.4%, with a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan for the day [6] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.462% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The mid - term outlook for the bond market is not bearish, and short - term trading should be based on the rhythm of the stock market. The bond market is in a narrow - range oscillation pattern, and short - term trading can buy on dips according to the A - share rhythm while mid - term long positions should be held [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - Treasury bond futures continued the narrow - range oscillation pattern, rising at noon and falling in the afternoon due to the strengthening of the stock market. The trading volume of T and TL contracts decreased continuously. In the open market, 90 billion yuan matured today, and the central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of 7 - day pledged repurchase, with a net investment of 360.5 billion yuan [1] News - There were reports that Trump drafted a letter to fire Powell, but Trump denied the dismissal rumor and hinted that there could be justifiable reasons. Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, is the top candidate to succeed Powell, and Trump said he was considering it [2] Market Judgment - During the tax period this week, the central bank has been making large - scale investments, and the DR001 has fallen to around 1.46%, indicating no concerns about the capital side. From the data in June, the economic momentum is weak, and there is still downward pressure in the future. With no negative factors in the fundamentals, the mid - term outlook for the bond market is not bearish. Recently, the main influencing factor is the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. The A - share market has been rising through sector rotation, and the wind all - A index is approaching last October's high. Affected by this, the bond market's volatility has decreased, and the trading volume of active varieties such as T and TL has significantly declined. The short - term bond market is difficult to break out of the oscillation pattern, and short - term trading can buy on dips according to the A - share rhythm while mid - term long positions should be held [3] Data Overview - The data shows the prices, trading volumes, and positions of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 contracts on July 17, 2025, compared with July 16, 2025, and the same period last week. It also includes information on basis, DR001, DR007, and DR014 [4] Graphical Data - There are multiple graphs showing the net basis and basis of T, TL, TS, and TF contracts, 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields, 7Y - 2Y treasury bond spreads, US treasury bond trends, US - China spreads, and exchange - traded fund prices [5][10][13]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend in the second half of the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3500 points for several consecutive days, indicating a potential bull market [1][2] - There has been a significant shift of funds from the bond market to the stock market, leading to large-scale redemptions in bond funds, with 23 products initiating emergency adjustments to net asset value precision due to these redemptions [1][4] - Analysts believe that the current valuation levels of the A-share market are relatively low compared to global indices, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets amid increasing global market instability [2][5] Group 2 - The "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds has been evident, with rising stock market activity and profitability prompting investors to seek higher returns in equity markets [4][6] - Several fund companies have announced increases in the precision of net asset values for their bond funds to mitigate the impact of large redemptions, with some funds adjusting to eight or nine decimal places [3][4] - The bond market is expected to stabilize and improve in the future, supported by a return of risk appetite and favorable monetary policies, although caution remains due to potential market fluctuations [5][8]

Market Overview - The bond market showed a sideways trend on July 17, with the main contracts mostly closing higher, while interbank bond yields fluctuated within a narrow range of 0.5 basis points [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan in the open market, with most funding rates continuing to decline [1][5] Bond Futures and Yields - The closing prices for government bond futures showed mixed results, with the 30-year main contract down 0.02% at 120.730, while the 10-year main contract rose 0.02% to 108.885 [2] - Interbank yields varied, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.6600%, while the 2-year yield fell by 0.25 basis points to 1.3825% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 4.81 basis points to 3.885% and the 10-year yield down 2.40 basis points to 4.457% [3] - Asian markets saw Japanese bond yields decline, while European markets also experienced a drop in yields for various countries, including France and Germany [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank issued financial bonds with yields of 1.5368% for 3-year bonds and 1.6699% for 7-year bonds, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.55 and 10.18 respectively [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 450.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 0.3 basis points to 1.463% [5] Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Securities, credit rating adjustments for convertible bonds in the first half of 2025 mainly involved downgrades, particularly among private enterprises in sectors like basic chemicals and computers [6] - Huatai Securities noted that the supporting factors for the bond market have not yet dissipated, suggesting that significant adjustments could present buying opportunities [7]

Group 1 - The recent phenomenon of "discount" in credit bond ETFs has attracted market attention, with over half of the credit bond ETFs showing this trend since July 8 [1] - As of July 15, the discount rate for several credit bond ETFs, including Guangfa (159397.SZ), exceeded 15 basis points, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance in the market [1][2] - The rise and fall of the discount rate serves as an important observation indicator for timing operations in bond ETFs, reflecting both asset price fluctuations and changes in market supply and demand [2] Group 2 - Guangfa Credit Bond ETF (159397.SZ) was established on January 22 of this year with an initial fundraising scale of 2.235 billion yuan, and as of July 15, its latest scale reached 14.775 billion yuan, ranking first among benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs in Shenzhen [3]

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing a significant shift, with a notable rebound in the bond market driven by a record-breaking 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repo operation by the central bank, which has injected liquidity into the market and provided support to the struggling bond sector [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The central bank's announcement of a massive reverse repo operation has led to a surge in bond market activity, with repo trading volume increasing by 92% [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF has surpassed 9 billion yuan in scale, with a daily increase of 0.30%, indicating strong interest from large investors in long-term bonds [2] - Institutional buying has been led by funds and brokerages, while banks and insurance companies have reduced their holdings, reflecting differing investment strategies [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Economic data released showed a 5.2% year-on-year GDP growth for Q2, slightly above expectations, but weak consumer data raised concerns, prompting a flight to safety in the bond market [1] - The bond market is experiencing a split, with city investment bonds gaining favor while industrial bonds, particularly real estate bonds, remain under pressure [4] Group 3: Stock Market Contrast - The convertible bond market is struggling, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index dropping by 0.83%, contrasting sharply with the rising bond market [5] - The widening yield gap between stocks and bonds is forcing investors to reassess their asset allocations, with the dividend yield of the CSI 300 at approximately 2.8% compared to a 10-year government bond yield of only 1.66% [6]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market and its current dynamics, influenced by central bank policies and market conditions [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Central Bank Actions** The central bank's liquidity injection indicates a protective stance towards the market, despite seasonal increases in funding rates. The overall outlook for the bond market remains bullish, focusing on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations [1][2]. 2. **Market Adjustments and Influencing Factors** Recent market adjustments are attributed to high institutional congestion and multiple compounding factors, such as trading restrictions, urban renewal expectations, and bond supply pressures. These adjustments are seen as temporary and beneficial for future policy implementations [1][4][5]. 3. **Stock-Bond Relationship** Concerns regarding the stock-bond "teeter-totter" effect are minimized, as the current stock market rise is primarily driven by policy catalysts rather than economic growth or inflation. Institutional demand for fixed-income assets remains rigid, indicating limited impact from stock market performance on bond investments [6]. 4. **Synchronization of Stock Indices and Bond Yields** In the first half of the year, stock indices and 10-year government bond yields rose simultaneously due to market liquidity concerns and external factors like the Geneva talks. However, these influences are not expected to persist, alleviating short-term worries [7]. 5. **Impact of Agricultural Commercial Bank Restrictions** Restrictions on agricultural commercial banks mainly affect their loan-to-deposit ratios and net interest margins. These measures may lead to balance sheet reductions or alternative bond investments, but their long-term impact on the bond market is considered limited [8]. 6. **Urban Renewal Policy Dynamics** The urban renewal policy differs fundamentally from the shantytown renovation policy, emphasizing gradual price increases through micro-level leverage rather than large-scale demolitions. The sustainability of this policy relies on incremental capital inflows [9]. 7. **Export Trends and Future Outlook** Recent high-frequency data indicates a rebound in exports, particularly to Europe and Southeast Asia, while exports to the U.S. have declined. However, trade restrictions and moderate CPI data suggest a cautious outlook for future export performance [10]. 8. **Supply Conditions in July** July's supply levels are expected to be higher compared to August and September, particularly in the latter part of the month. The issuance results of long-term local bonds have been poor, but historically, actual supply realization can be beneficial for the market. Current 10-year government bond yields are nearing a relative upper limit, presenting potential buying opportunities [11]. Additional Important Insights - The central bank's recent reverse repo operations, totaling 1.4 trillion, reflect a proactive approach to manage liquidity amidst seasonal pressures [2]. - The divergence between quantitative models and subjective judgment highlights the importance of focusing on broader trends rather than short-term fluctuations [3]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the bond market and related economic factors.

端在期货 | | 7月15日 10:00 中国第二季度GDP年率/中国6月社会消费品零售总额同比/中国6月规模以上工业增加值同比 | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 7月15日 20:30 美国6月未季调CPI年率 | | | 7月16日 04:00 英国央行行长贝利发表讲话 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 国债期货日报 2025/7/14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and reference views of TL2509 are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Due to the recent rapid recovery of risk appetite in the domestic stock market, the safe - haven demand for bonds has decreased. The possibility of the central bank cutting interest rates in the short term is low, so treasury bond futures are in a consolidation phase. However, under the general tone of moderately loose policies, the adjustment space for treasury bond futures is limited. In the long - term, the logic of an upward trend in treasury bond futures is relatively solid, and they will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For TL2509, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is the loose monetary policy environment and low short - term interest - rate cut possibility [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range. The recovery of stock - market risk appetite reduced bond safe - haven demand. The short - term interest - rate cut possibility is low, leading to a consolidation of treasury bond futures. With a loose policy tone, the adjustment space is limited. Given weak inflation, insufficient domestic demand, and external demand affected by tariffs, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year, making the long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures solid. In the short term, they will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights a market correction in the bond market, with credit products showing varying degrees of resilience. The "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds continues, leading to a decline in the bond market and some profit-taking, particularly in perpetual bonds [2][9]. - Credit products generally follow interest rate adjustments, but their decline is less pronounced than that of interest rates. The credit spread has narrowed passively, with perpetual bonds experiencing a greater decline compared to other credit types [2][9]. - The report notes that the yield on short-term credit products fluctuated, with a passive widening of credit spreads by approximately 5 basis points over the week [2][9]. Group 2 - During the bond market adjustment period, trading volumes for credit bonds have decreased, particularly for perpetual bonds. However, insurance and other institutional investors have shown a notable increase in their holdings of high-quality credit bonds [3][16]. - The report suggests that the market may not need to worry excessively about the current credit market conditions, as the marginal impact of the stock-bond see-saw effect is expected to diminish. The report anticipates a potential re-entry point for investors as the credit spreads adjust [4][27]. - The report recommends focusing on 2-year duration assets for portfolio allocation, as well as considering mid-to-high grade 5-year perpetual bonds, which have seen a decline in yields above 1.9%, indicating potential buying interest [4][29][34].