Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged past $4,300, marking a historic milestone as the first global asset to exceed a market capitalization of $30 trillion, indicating extreme overbuying and potential risks outweighing rewards [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold has experienced a continuous rise for seven weeks, an unprecedented occurrence in history [2][3] - The current state of extreme overbuying suggests that the risks associated with gold investments are greater than the potential rewards at this time [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company does not recommend increasing positions in gold at this moment, suggesting that investors should hold existing positions instead [3][7] - A long-term allocation of at least 20% in gold is advised for asset diversification and risk management, contrasting with short-term trading strategies [7][8] Group 3: Central Bank Influence - Central banks globally are expected to continue purchasing gold, which will provide structural support for gold prices [4][5] - The proportion of gold reserves held by central banks has surpassed that of U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a significant backing for gold prices [5] Group 4: Demand Factors - The primary support for gold prices stems from safe-haven demand, particularly during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty [6][7] - Institutional demand, such as from ETFs, is also a significant factor influencing gold prices, as these entities seek to track gold's performance [6][7] Group 5: Market Sentiment - The extreme overbought condition of gold is deemed unsustainable, and caution is advised as market dynamics may shift [7][9] - The current market environment reflects a broader skepticism towards fiat currencies, with gold's value rising significantly against paper money [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached unprecedented levels, surpassing $4300 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy [1][6][7]. Price Movement - As of the latest report, London gold is priced at $4342.52 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.37%, and has reached a peak of $4380.79 per ounce [2][3]. - COMEX gold futures have also seen significant gains, trading at $4343.5 per ounce, up 0.9%, with an intraday high of $4392 per ounce [4]. Market Risks and Warnings - The Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange have issued risk warnings due to the volatility in precious metal prices, urging members to enhance risk management practices [5]. - Major banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have advised investors to rationally manage their gold asset allocations in light of increased market risks [5]. Factors Driving Gold Prices - The surge in gold prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, and strong market expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve policy towards rate cuts [6][7]. - Concerns over U.S. government shutdowns and trade tensions have further fueled demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a long-term optimistic view on gold prices, citing ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the scarcity of safe-haven assets as key factors supporting price increases [7]. - However, short-term caution is advised due to potential technical corrections and the possibility of a shift in Federal Reserve policy that could lead to rapid price adjustments [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are driven by increased market uncertainty and rising demand for safe-haven assets due to concerns over the stability of the credit system and geopolitical tensions [4][7]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On October 17, gold prices experienced significant volatility, with spot gold and COMEX gold reaching highs of $4380.79 and $4392 per ounce, respectively, before declining and then rebounding [1]. - As of the report, spot gold and COMEX gold were trading around $4335 and $4359 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to concerns over loan fraud at two U.S. regional banks, which heightened fears regarding the stability of the credit system and increased safe-haven demand [4]. - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown and unresolved U.S.-China trade tensions, have further supported high levels of market risk aversion [4]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Domestic banks have raised the investment thresholds for gold accumulation products multiple times this year, with some banks increasing the minimum purchase price to 1000 yuan per gram [5]. - Despite price volatility, global gold demand reached 1249 tons in Q2 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by strong investment demand [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current environment, characterized by rising credit risks and geopolitical tensions, will continue to support gold prices in the medium term [7]. - Long-term factors such as the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold are expected to sustain the bullish trend in gold prices over the next 2-3 years [7].

Group 1 - Global market risk sentiment is rising due to geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, particularly between the US and China, and the worsening situation in Ukraine, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] - Gold prices have reached a historical high, with spot gold (XAU/USD) breaking through $4200 and touching $4378 per ounce, supported by safe-haven buying and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The US government shutdown remains unresolved, with the Senate rejecting a temporary funding bill for the tenth time, exacerbating the political deadlock [1] Group 2 - The Japanese yen (JPY) has strengthened for the fourth consecutive day against the US dollar (USD), reaching a two-week high, driven by concerns over deteriorating trade relations between the US and China [2] - Market expectations for a potential slight interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have increased, following comments from the Bank's Governor regarding flexible policy adjustments based on inflation and economic outlook [2] - The USD/JPY pair is nearing critical support levels, with potential testing of monthly lows if it breaks below 149.15 [2] Group 3 - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have declined, hitting a five-month low of $56.50 per barrel, influenced by supply concerns and geopolitical factors [3] - An increase in US crude oil inventories by 3.524 million barrels, significantly exceeding expectations, has added downward pressure on oil prices [3] - The energy market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with potential for range-bound trading [3] Group 4 - Multiple risk factors are driving market sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold and the yen, while the US dollar and oil prices remain under pressure [4] - Investors are advised to monitor comments from Federal Reserve officials and major central bank policies to gauge future market trends [4]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.17」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 目录 本周贵金属市场继续强势收涨，白银走势整体强于黄金 图1、沪金与COMEX金期价 图2、沪银与COMEX银期价 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：关税局势风波再起，在避险买盘需求的支撑下，贵金属市场本周继续强势收涨，金银价格接连突破历 史新高。特朗普释放关税战升温信号，推动市场避险情绪显著抬升，但考虑到此前特朗普在关税问题上立场反复 不断，本轮关税局势实质性升温的可能性或仍相对有限。从当前盘面来看，虽技术指标显示市场严重超买迹象， 金银价格短期回落后均有较强的买盘需求支撑，且外盘ETF以及CFTC投机持仓仍未达到历史峰值水平，说明贵金属 仍有继续上行的空间。美联储官员近期言论偏向鸽派，9月会议纪要显示多数委员支持进一步降息以应对增长放缓 及就业疲软，10月和12月各有逾90%和80%的 ...

（声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 10月17日，国内黄金市场再现历史性时刻，沪金期货主力合约盘中突破1000元/克整数关口，日内涨幅 近4%，创历史新高。截至收盘，沪金期货主力合约报999.8元/克。 国内实物黄金市场同步升温，周生生品牌金饰报1281元/克，较昨日涨36元/克。老凤祥报1280元/克，较 昨日涨35元/克。周大福、金至尊、老庙黄金均报1279元/克，分别较昨日上涨34元/克、32元/克、31元/ 克。 （原标题：沪金期货首破千元大关！金饰克价逼近1300元大关） 广州期货分析认为，美国银行信贷风险抬头，地缘政治紧张与政策不确定性持续催生旺盛的避险需求； 美联储明确进入降息周期并极可能在年内继续宽松以对冲潜在经济风险，显著改善了贵金属的持有环 境；全球央行持续战略增持提供长期结构支撑，共同为金价的上涨打开空间。 ...

Core Insights - The price of gold jewelry brands such as Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang has surged to 1235 RMB per gram, marking a historic breakthrough above 1230 RMB [1] - International gold prices have skyrocketed, with London spot gold exceeding 4225 USD, reflecting a weekly increase of approximately 200 USD [3] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts have significantly boosted the gold market, with the dollar index dropping to a multi-month low of 98.65, making gold more attractive to investors [3] Group 1: Market Trends - Global central banks are purchasing gold at the fastest pace in decades, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months [5] - In Q2 2025, global central bank net gold purchases reached 166 tons, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to continue increasing their gold holdings in the coming year [5] - High gold prices have led to a 26% year-on-year decline in gold jewelry consumption in China during the first half of 2025, while sales of gold bars and coins increased by 23.69% [7] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly viewing gold as a savings method rather than just for decoration, leading to a 249% year-on-year revenue increase for Lao Pu Gold [8] - The average transaction value at Beijing SKP stores rose from 25,000 RMB in 2024 to over 40,000 RMB in July 2025 [8] - The Shenzhen Shui Bei gold market faced turmoil with several gold merchants experiencing operational issues, prompting warnings from the Shenzhen Jewelry Association regarding high-leverage virtual betting activities [8] Group 3: Investment Adjustments - Several banks, including ICBC and Bank of China, have raised the minimum purchase threshold for gold investment products, now generally ranging from 750 to 1000 RMB [10] - The gold recycling market has seen a surge in activity, with reports of a 50% increase in customers returning gold for cash [11] - Despite the overall increase in gold prices, the gold repurchase business in the Shui Bei market showed lackluster performance during the recent holiday period [11] Group 4: Price Dynamics - As of October 16, 2025, London gold was reported at 4227.91 USD per ounce, with a daily high of 4234.36 USD [11] - The Shanghai gold futures contract was priced at 968.1 RMB per gram, reaching a peak of 969.62 RMB on the same day [11] - Analysts suggest that while gold prices may experience short-term volatility, the long-term outlook remains positive due to global economic conditions characterized by high debt and low growth [11]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights the recent volatility in gold prices, with spot gold reaching a historical high of $4,380 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline of $100, dropping below $4,280, although it later recovered [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice to its members on October 16, urging them to enhance risk control measures due to the significant fluctuations in international precious metal prices [3] - The recent surge in gold prices began in late August, with a more than 25% increase in London gold spot prices from August 21 to October 15, driven by rising global risk aversion and declining confidence in the US dollar [3] Group 2 - Central banks worldwide have been key drivers of rising gold prices, with a reported increase of 166 tons in global official gold reserves in Q2 of this year, maintaining historical highs [4] - Market analysts predict that gold prices may continue to strengthen due to factors such as potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, high US government debt, and increasing geopolitical risks [4] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for international gold prices for December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing diversification in investments by individual and institutional investors as a contributing factor [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [67]. Core Insights - Silver prices continue to reach new highs, with international gold prices surpassing $4,300 [2]. - As of October 16, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has seen a 3.35% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.83 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 industries [3][13]. - The precious metals sector has risen by 6.04%, while the industrial metals sector has increased by 3.58% during the same period [18]. Market Review - As of October 16, 2025, the COMEX gold price closed at $4,344.30 per ounce, up $828.2 since early September, while the COMEX silver price reached $53.43 per ounce, an increase of $12.68 [6][35]. - The LME copper price stood at $10,620 per ton, with other industrial metals like aluminum at $2,796 per ton and nickel at $15,230 per ton [25][60]. - The rare earth price index was recorded at 204.65, down 22.28 from early September, indicating a need for caution regarding external risk sentiment [42][61]. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earth-related technologies to safeguard the global supply chain and address illegal acquisition issues [50]. - The World Gold Council noted that overall gold holdings remain low, suggesting potential for future price increases despite current market concerns [50]. Company Announcements - Shenghe Resources expects a net profit increase of 697% to 783% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by favorable market conditions for rare earth products [51][52]. - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a net profit increase of 273% to 287% for the same period, reflecting strong market demand and effective management strategies [53][54]. - Shandong Gold forecasts a net profit increase of 84% to 99% for the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to rising gold prices [57][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899), Xinyi Silver (000426), and Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988) in the precious metals sector [60][63]. - For industrial metals, companies like Western Mining (601168) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) are recommended [60][63]. - In the rare earth sector, attention is drawn to Xiamen Tungsten (600549) and Northern Rare Earth (600111) [62][63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US trade friction is in the stage of mutual exploration. Market risk appetite may be suppressed in the short term, but the friction is more about posturing before negotiations. The stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend and potentially larger short - term fluctuations [2] - The 10 - year Treasury bond has different performances. When the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate rises above 1.8%, the allocation value recovers, and it may face resistance at 1.75% and 1.7%. Short - term Treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [2] - Safe - haven demand supports the strong performance of precious metals. Gold remains strong, and silver rises in tandem with gold [2] - The shipping index (European line) EC main contract shows downward movement, with short - term fluctuations [2] - The steel market shows signs of recovery in apparent demand, and inventory starts seasonal destocking, while profit margins are converging [2] - The supply - side disturbances in the iron ore market are weakening, and the market is weakening from a shock [2] - The coking coal market has a rebound in coal prices and increasing downstream replenishment demand, while the coke market has the first round of price increases before the festival and is temporarily stable [2] - The copper price is oscillating at a high level, and the alumina price is oscillating downward due to loose cost support [2] - The aluminum market has a narrow - range oscillation, and the inventory is destocking [2] - The crude oil price is under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and inventory accumulation [2] - The urea market has limited improvement in supply - demand balance due to falling daily production, and the market lacks strong drivers [2] - The PX and PTA markets have weak supply - demand expectations and limited oil price support, with low - level oscillations [2] - The short - fiber market has low inventory pressure and short - term support [2] - The bottle - chip market has a loose supply - demand pattern, but the processing margin has improved in the short term [2] - The ethanol market has port inventory accumulation and a weak far - month supply - demand structure, so it is weak in the short term [2] - The caustic soda and PVC markets have stable or rising prices and stronger basis quotes [2] - The benzene and styrene markets have weak supply - demand expectations and price pressure [2] - The synthetic rubber market has stable cost support but a loose supply - demand situation, with a short - term expected rebound [2] - The LLDPE and PP markets have weak supply - demand and price oscillations [2] - The agricultural product markets such as soybeans, corn, and cotton have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2] - The special commodity markets such as glass and rubber have different price trends and operational suggestions [2] - The new energy markets such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have upward price trends and different operational suggestions [2] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend. Short - term fluctuations may increase. Conservative investors can wait for the fluctuations to converge and then enter the market at low levels, mainly by selling put options at the support level [2] Treasury Bond - The short - term Treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.4 - 108.3. It is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [2] Precious Metals - Gold remains strong due to safe - haven demand. Long positions can be held with stop - loss and take - profit measures, or out - of - the - money call options can be used instead. Silver follows gold's upward trend, and long positions above $53 should be held [2] Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract has short - term fluctuating movements. It is recommended to buy below 1600, stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, and conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices for the month - spread [2] Steel - The steel market has recovered apparent demand and seasonal destocking. The profit margin is converging. Single - side trading should be on the sidelines, and the month - spread can be reverse - arbitraged at high prices [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is weakening from a shock. Single - side trading should be on the sidelines, with a reference range of 750 - 800. Arbitrage can be done by going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2] Coking Coal and Coke - For coking coal, go long at low levels in the range of 1120 - 1250 and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coke, go long at low levels in the range of 1620 - 1770 and conduct the same arbitrage [2] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper is oscillating at a high level, with the main contract focusing on the 84000 - 85000 support. Alumina is oscillating downward, with a main operating range of 2750 - 2950. Aluminum is oscillating in a narrow range, with the main contract referring to 20700 - 21300 [2] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is under pressure due to trade tensions and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to go short on the single - side. Urea lacks strong drivers, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. PX and PTA have weak supply - demand expectations, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, soybeans are under pressure, and cotton has increasing supply pressure [2] Special Commodities - Glass has a strengthening market sentiment and a rebound. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions. Rubber should be monitored for raw material price increases during the peak - production period [2] New Energy - Polysilicon is rising in an oscillating manner, and long positions should be held. Lithium carbonate is strongly operating, with the main contract price referring to the 74000 - 76000 range [2]