周五，美国总统特朗普再骂美联储主席鲍威尔。近日，由于美联储未在6月会议上降息，特朗普对鲍威 尔和美联储理事会的攻击频率多且言辞尖锐。 他在周五当天先是重复以前的观点，称如果鲍威尔降息，融资成本就会更加便宜。 几小时后他又表示，希望美联储主席鲍威尔辞职。"如果他想辞职，我会非常高兴。"他还称鲍威尔是一 个固执的骡子和一个愚蠢的人。 特朗普说，他将挑选一位希望降息的人，作为鲍威尔的继任者。"如果我认为某人会维持目前的利率水 平，或无所作为，我是不会任命他的。我会任命一个想要降息的人，这样的人很多。" 分析指出，特朗普提到的希望降息这一条件直接触及美联储的独立性核心。 贝森特淡化特朗普可能提前提名美联储主席的猜测 周五同日，美国财政部长贝森特淡化了有关特朗普可能提前提名下一任美联储主席的猜测。他指出，一 种可能的时间安排是今年10月或11月公布人选。在周五接受媒体采访时，当被问及特朗普是否可能任命 一位所谓的"影子美联储主席"时，贝森特表示："我认为现在没有人在真正讨论这个问题。" 贝森特指出，明年初美联储理事会将有两个职位空缺：库格勒（Adriana Kugler）的任期将在明年1月结 束，而鲍威尔的美联储主席任 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, significantly down from previous estimates, primarily due to tariff policies leading to increased imports and inflation concerns [1][3] - Analysts predict that inflation rates in the U.S. will surge starting June, with a 40% probability of the economy entering a recession in the second half of the year [3][4] Tariff Impact - The current effective tariff rate in the U.S. hovers around 15%, with a potential GDP growth slowdown of 0.25%-0.75% for every 5%-10% increase in tariffs [3][4] - The inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to manifest in the latter half of the year, raising concerns about economic pain [3][4] Federal Reserve Dynamics - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that unprecedented tariff policies complicate inflation predictions and decisions on interest rate cuts [5][7] - Trump is reportedly seeking a "compliant" successor to Powell, with potential candidates including Kevin Walsh and others, aiming to influence monetary policy ahead of Powell's term ending [7][9] Dollar's International Standing - The U.S. dollar index has depreciated over 10% this year, with predictions of an additional 5.7% decline in the next 12 months due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical issues [12][14] - There is a structural decline in international investors' appetite for U.S. Treasury bonds, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 123%, raising concerns about the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [12][14]

以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 来源 | 金十财经 由于投资者美联储独立性受损的新信号感到不安， 美元指数 被迅速推至三年多来最低水平。 周三，美国总统特朗普称美联储主席鲍威尔"糟糕透顶"，这是他对美联储主席的最新抨击，并表 示已考虑三到四人作为美联储主席职位的候选人。 周四，美元兑一篮子主要货币重返多年低点，抹去了本周早些时候因中东紧张局势引发的避险资 金流带来的短暂喘息。 美元指数今年迄今已下跌10%，有望创下2003年以来最差年度表现。随着 市场对美联储独立性的担忧加剧，加之降息预期升温及7月9日贸易谈判截止日临近，美元指数料 将进一步走弱。 加拿大皇家银行蓝湾资产管理高级投资组合经理卡斯帕·亨泽（Kaspar Hense）表示： "在机构公 信力受损的环境下，我们做空美元。" 他补充称，若哈塞特或贝森特这类人物上任并"无视基本面风险而降息，市场仍会剧烈波动"。据 报道，下一任美联储主席的主要候选人包括前美联储理事沃什、国家经济委员会主任哈塞特、现 任美联储理事沃勒和财政部长贝森特。 法国兴业银行首席外汇策略师基特·朱 ...

澳洲东部标准时间（AEST）下午1点刚过，澳元兑美元汇率触及65.60美分，创下自 去年11月24日以来 的最佳表现。 在Powell告诉美国国会，白宫的关税可能会加剧通胀，从而推迟潜在的降息计划 后，特朗普称Powell 是"一个心智平平的人"，"就他的工作而言智商很低"。 "实际 上，我认为他是个非常愚蠢的人，"特朗普说。 Powell是唯一被拜登留任并续任的人，他的任期要到明年5月才结束。不过，特朗 普表示，他已经在物 色美联储主席的接替者。 （图片来源：9News） 据澳洲九号台新闻报道，这在一定程度上得益于美国总统特朗普颇具争议的言论。 截至下午4点，澳元汇率小幅回落至约65.44美分，与昨日市场收盘时的水平大致相 当，但仍远高于今年 头几个月的水平。 今年4月，在特朗普"解放日"关税影响下，澳元兑美元汇率跌破60美分，但此后开 始回升。 今日创下的年度高点并非源于澳元的强势，而是由于特朗普再次对美联储主席Jerome Powell发起抨击 后，美元走弱。 特朗普一直在不断攻击他在2017年第一任期内任命的这位首席央行官员，原因是美 联储今年不愿降 息。 "我知道有三到四个人是我要选的，"他说，并补 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly the potential for rate cuts in July, influenced by various economic indicators and statements from Fed officials [1][6][10]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Expectations - Recent statements from Fed officials, including Waller and Bowman, initially raised expectations for a rate cut in July, but subsequent comments from Powell and others tempered these expectations [1][6]. - The market had priced in two rate cuts for the year, but officials indicated a cautious approach, suggesting that more data is needed before making any decisions [6][9]. Economic Indicators and Fed Officials' Statements - Powell noted that while inflation trends are downward, uncertainties from tariffs complicate the decision-making process, indicating no immediate need for policy adjustments [6][7]. - Williams projected a significant slowdown in U.S. economic growth to around 1% and an increase in unemployment to 4.5% by year-end, while also highlighting the inflationary pressures from tariffs [6][8]. - Other officials, including Daly and Collins, echoed the sentiment of waiting for clearer signals before considering rate adjustments, emphasizing the current favorable position of monetary policy [7][9]. Potential Succession of Fed Chair Powell - There are reports that Trump is considering nominees to succeed Powell, which has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and the future direction of monetary policy [3][11]. - The potential candidates include Waller, Warsh, Hassett, and Bessent, with Waller being seen as a frontrunner due to his established relationships and policy experience [12]. - The market is reacting to the possibility of a more dovish "shadow chair" influencing aggressive rate cuts, leading to a decline in the dollar index [12][13]. Conclusion on Fed's Independence - Despite concerns about Trump's influence, experts assert that the Fed's decision-making process involves a collective discussion among FOMC members, ensuring that no single individual can unilaterally dictate policy [13].

特朗普希望提前指定接替鲍威尔接班人，通过"影子主席"来影响美联储，这不利于提升市场对美国货币政策制定 完整性和独立性的观感，也不利于美元储备货币地位。 过去一周，由于美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼的表态，市场对美联储降息预期一度上升。但紧随其后，包括美联储主席 鲍威尔、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯、旧金山联储主席戴利纷纷为降息预期降温。 美东时间周四，又有五位联储官员表示，不准备支持下次会议，也就是市场预期的7月降息。 此外，本周有消息称，特朗普正酝酿提名鲍威尔的继任者，或将在今年9月或10月前选定并宣布，市场对此也份外 关注。 7月降息预期再遭降温 近期，多项美国经济数据强化了政策宽松预期，美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼过去一周也均表示，若通胀持续受控，可 能最快在7月29~30日的美联储议息会议（FOMC）上支持降息。利率互换市场随之加大了对美联储降息的押注， 完全定价年内两次降息。 波士顿联储主席柯林斯也称，"今年稍晚美联储确实会重启降息，可能降息一次或更多次。但7月会议前，我们仅 能获得一个月的新数据，我希望看到更多数据，目前看不到降息紧迫性。" 里士满联储主席巴尔金预计，关税将对物价构成上行压力。"鉴于诸多不确定性，美联储应在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The White House indicated that the decision to nominate the next Federal Reserve Chair is not imminent, which has led to a significant decline in the dollar's value [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Nomination - The White House stated that the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair will not be made immediately, despite President Trump's potential plans to announce a new nominee this summer [2] - Trump has reportedly identified "three to four" candidates to replace Powell, expressing frustration over Powell's performance [2] - Potential candidates include Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher Waller, with Waller recently supporting a rate cut in contrast to Powell's cautious stance [2] Group 2: Dollar Value and Economic Implications - The dollar fell by 0.7% against a basket of currencies, reaching its lowest level since early 2022, influenced by speculation regarding the Fed Chair nomination [2][3] - The dollar has declined over 10% this year amid concerns about trade wars, debt sustainability, and threats to the Fed's independence [4] - Analysts suggest that if a nominee more aligned with Trump's desire for rate cuts is appointed, it could further weaken the dollar [3][4] Group 3: Concerns Over Fed Independence - Concerns are raised about the potential political influence on the Federal Reserve, which could undermine its independence and lead to economic instability [5] - Historical precedents indicate that political pressure on the Fed can result in negative economic outcomes, as seen during Nixon's presidency [5] - A recent OMFIF survey revealed that 70% of central bank reserve managers are reducing their dollar holdings due to the current political environment in the U.S. [5]

美国经济在第一季度收缩幅度大于此前预期之后仍保持弹性。5月耐用品订单增长16.4%，每周申请失 业救济人数温和增长23.6万人，第一季度GDP收缩0.5%，而不是之前预计的0.2%。在美联储独立性受到 威胁之际，美元保持了隔夜的下行轨迹。《华尔街日报》报道称，特朗普可能会比平时更早任命鲍威尔 主席的继任者，以削弱目前的鹰派立场。Bannockburn的Marc Chandler写道："如此直接地影响美联储的 企图，不会受到投资者的欢迎。" 裕信银行投资研究所的安德烈亚斯·里斯在一次网络研讨会上表示，预计欧洲央行将在当前周期内再降 息一次。据裕信银行经济学家预计，9月降息25个基点将使存款利率降至1.75%，"基本上（降息）就结 束了。"货币市场目前认为，下一次降息更有可能在10月。里斯表示，欧洲经济增长料将"相当疲软"但 不会大幅放缓，通胀率可能横向波动，徘徊在2%左右。 周五（6月27日）亚市盘中，COMEX黄金短线维持下跌走势，截至目前报3323.50美元/盎司，跌幅 0.54%，今日开盘于3341.30美元/盎司，最高上探3341.40美元/盎司，最低触及3323.00美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 【CO ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/27 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价窄幅震荡，美油主力合约收涨 0.46%，报 65.22 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 0.41%，报 66.70 美元/桶。美国原油库存超预期下降支撑油价， 但中东局势缓和限制涨幅。光大期货指出，油价短期或维持区间震荡，需关注 欧佩克+产量政策变化。 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.04%报 3341.6 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.22%报 36.55 美元/盎司。美联储内部对降息时机存在 分歧，特朗普政府考虑提前宣布鲍威尔继任人选，引发对美联储独立性的担忧。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘全线上涨，LME 期锌涨 2.42%报 2770.00 美元/吨，LME 期 铜涨 1.89%报 9896.00 美元/吨，LME 期锡涨 1.86%报 33810.00 美元/吨。美联储 降息预期升温提振金属价格，铜市场表现尤为强劲。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1. 国家金融监督管理总局、中国人民银行联合发布《银行业保险 ...

Core Viewpoint - Donald Trump is considering announcing his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair significantly ahead of schedule, which could influence monetary policy before the official transition occurs [1][9]. Group 1: Trump's Strategy - The idea is to create a "designate chair" who can shape market expectations about future interest rates through public appearances [2]. - This strategy is seen as a high-risk maneuver, with several potential candidates emerging, each with different backgrounds and perceived flaws [3]. Group 2: Potential Candidates - Kevin Walsh, a former Fed governor known for his hawkish stance, is considered but may not align with Trump's preference for a more dovish candidate [3]. - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, reportedly has little interest in the position [3]. - Scott Bessenette, the Treasury Secretary, is viewed as a favorable option due to his strong connections on Wall Street and ability to navigate chaotic policies [4]. - David Malpass, former World Bank President, has recently shifted to support rate cuts, signaling alignment with Trump's views, though his public image is questioned [4]. - Christopher Waller, a current Fed governor, is seen as a dark horse candidate due to his recent calls for rate cuts [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - The political maneuvering introduces significant uncertainty for Wall Street, which dislikes unpredictability, especially regarding borrowing costs [6]. - If a dovish candidate is chosen, it could lead to bond market sell-offs due to inflation concerns, countering Trump's desired outcomes [6]. - Stock markets may initially react positively to anticipated lower rates, but the sustainability of this reaction depends on the new chair's credibility [6]. Group 4: Independence Concerns - Trump's actions are perceived as a threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve, a principle that has been crucial since the 1970s to avoid political interference [7]. - Many in Wall Street believe that an independent Fed is vital for maintaining price stability and the credibility of the financial system [7]. - The potential for a "political risk premium" in asset prices may arise from perceived political interference [7]. Group 5: Powell's Position - Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends in May 2026, but he may remain on the board until January 2028, potentially providing a stabilizing influence [8]. - Powell's calm demeanor and focus on economic stability suggest he is attempting to separate himself from the political drama surrounding the Fed [8][9].