Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The government shutdown continues to affect liquidity [2][4] - Silver: Fluctuating and rebounding [2][4] - Copper: The expectation of Fed rate cuts supports the price [2][9] - Zinc: Trading within a range [2][12] - Lead: A significant increase in inventory restricts price hikes [2][15] - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][18] - Aluminum: The price center is moving up; Alumina: Bottom - oscillating; Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - Nickel: High inventory accumulation is in a game with risks in Indonesia, resulting in low - level oscillations; Stainless steel: Lacks upward driving force, and the downward space is also limited [2][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2512 increased by 1.38%, 1.44%, and 0.24% respectively. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2512, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2512 rose by 1.40%, 1.21%, and 1.33% respectively. The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 18,094 kg, and Comex Silver decreased by 1,011,247 ounces [4] - **News**: The US "small non - farm" data showed that the number of ADP private - sector employees decreased by 45,000 in October, the largest decline in two and a half years. The White House official said that some US October data might be lost forever. China's central bank's Q3 monetary policy report indicated that a natural decline in future financial aggregate growth was expected [4][6][8] - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0, and silver trend intensity is 0 [7] Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 86,630, up 0.17%. The London Copper 3M electronic - trading price was 10,840, down 0.32%. The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 825 tons, and London Copper decreased by 25 tons [9] - **News**: Weak ADP employment data boosted the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list. Tanzania reopened its border with Zambia. Freeport Indonesia completed the investigation of a mudslide incident. Chile's state - owned copper company's copper production declined by over 7% in September [9][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 1 [11] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,675, up 0.02%. The London Zinc 3M electronic - trading price was 3,085.5, up 0.62%. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased by 649 tons, and London Zinc increased by 400 tons [12] - **News**: The US suspended the implementation of the export - control penetration rule for one year, and then the two sides would continue discussions [12] - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [12] Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17,440, down 0.37%. The London Lead 3M electronic - trading price was 2,056.5, up 0.56%. The inventory of Shanghai Lead increased by 574 tons, and London Lead increased by 24,525 tons [15] - **News**: Weak ADP employment data boosted the expectation of Fed rate cuts. China's central bank's Q3 monetary policy report had relevant statements [16] - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [16] Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 288,180, up 0.57%. The London Tin 3M electronic - trading price was 36,695, up 1.42%. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 112 tons, and London Tin decreased by 20 tons [18] - **News**: Similar to gold and silver news, including US ADP data, China's central bank report, etc. [19] - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1 [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,665, with a certain change compared to previous data. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,816. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy also had corresponding changes. There were also changes in inventory, trading volume, and other aspects [21] - **News**: The UK unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, increasing the pressure on the government's autumn budget and the central bank's decision - making. Microsoft will invest $10 billion in building an AI data center in Portugal [23] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, alumina trend intensity is 0, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [23] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,380, and the stainless - steel main - contract closing price was 12,465. There were also changes in inventory, price spreads, and other aspects [24] - **News**: An Indonesian mining area was taken over by the forestry working group, China suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies [24][25] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [28]

| 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 强势 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 短线看强 | 美元指数回落，金价企稳回升 | | 铜 | 2512 | 强势 | 强势 | 偏强 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 11 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑：昨日金价强势运行，沪金日内一度触及 950 元关口，夜盘有所回落。近期美国国会参议院 已 ...

铜基本面数据 2025 年 11 月 12 日 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 86,630 | 0.17% | 86770 | 0.16% | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,840 | -0.32% | - | - | | 昨日成交 | | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 沪铜指数 | 156,444 | -48,957 | 553,109 | -2,095 | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,386 | -3,551 | 324,000 | 790 | | 昨日期货库存 | | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | 沪铜 | 42,964 | -825 | - | - | | 伦铜 | 136,250 | -25 | 7.49% | -1.12% | | LME铜升贴水 | | 昨日价差 -14.85 | 前日价差 -18.22 | 较前日变动 3.37 | | 保税区提单升水 | | 46 | 43 | 3 | | 保税区仓单升水 | | 34 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent upward trend in gold and silver prices, driven by market conditions and expectations regarding U.S. economic policy [1][2]. - On November 10, 2023, the most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 rose by $9.8, closing at $4,133.2 per ounce, marking a 0.24% increase [1]. - During the trading session, gold prices reached a three-week high of $4,155 per ounce, indicating strong market interest [2]. Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown may improve market risk appetite, but the anticipated economic impact could reinforce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, providing significant support for precious metals [2]. - Despite limited demand for gold jewelry, the demand for gold allocation remains strong, as evidenced by a 4.3-ton increase in SPDR Gold ETF holdings on November 11 [2]. - UBS Group forecasts that gold demand in the next two years could reach its strongest level since 2011, with potential for gold prices to rise to $4,700 per ounce due to ongoing political and financial market risks [2]. Group 3 - On the same day, silver futures for December delivery increased by $0.67, closing at $51.075 per ounce, reflecting a 1.33% rise [3].

Market Performance - On November 11, US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a record high, up 1.18% to 47,927.96 points [3] - The S&P 500 index rose 0.21% to 6,846.61 points, while the Nasdaq index fell 0.25% to 23,468.3 points [3] Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 0.06%, with mixed performance among Chinese concept stocks [7] - Xpeng Motors' US stock surged nearly 8%, accumulating over 20% increase in the last two trading days, driven by interest in its new humanoid robot, IRON [7][9] Major Technology Stocks - Major US tech stocks showed mixed results, with Apple rising over 2%, while Nvidia fell nearly 3% and Tesla dropped over 1% [5] - Energy stocks collectively rose, with ConocoPhillips up nearly 3% and ExxonMobil increasing over 1% [5] Pharmaceutical Developments - Novo Nordisk's stock surged nearly 7% following positive Phase II trial results for its experimental drug Coramitug, which aims to treat amyloidosis [5][6] - The trial data indicated a 48% reduction in NT-proBNP levels at a dosage of 60mg/kg, prompting the company to advance the drug to Phase III trials [6] Airline and Semiconductor Stocks - Airline stocks mostly declined, with American Airlines and Southwest Airlines both dropping over 2% [6] - Semiconductor stocks also faced losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 2.48% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6][8]. Gold Price Movement - As of November 11, gold prices rose significantly, reaching $4,142.06 per ounce in London, marking a 0.65% increase from the previous day [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also saw an increase, trading at $4,142.3 per ounce, up 0.49%, with a peak of $4,155 per ounce during the session [3][4]. Market Dynamics - Major gold jewelry brands in China have raised their prices, with notable increases such as Lao Feng Xiang at 1,310 yuan per gram, up 37 yuan, and Chow Sang Sang at 1,308 yuan per gram, up 32 yuan [5]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including the easing of U.S. government shutdown risks, which alleviated liquidity concerns and reinforced expectations for a rate cut in December [6]. Future Outlook - Short-term gold prices may face profit-taking pressure due to previous gains, while internal policy disagreements within the Federal Reserve could lead to market volatility [7]. - In the medium to long term, the upward trend in gold prices is expected to remain strong due to ongoing de-dollarization, central bank purchases, and economic uncertainties [8]. - Investment strategies suggest maintaining a balanced approach to gold investments, focusing on long-term value and avoiding impulsive buying during price surges [8].

Group 1 - Spot gold (XAU/USD) rose slightly to around $4120, continuing its recent strength due to expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with over 60% probability [1] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates nearly 80% chance of another rate cut by January, which has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, keeping prices stable at high levels [1] - Uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown continues to support safe-haven buying, despite a temporary funding bill passed by the Senate and expected approval in the House [1] Group 2 - The latest UK employment report shows a three-month unemployment rate rising to about 5.0%, a recent high, with slowing wage growth, reinforcing expectations of a dovish shift from the Bank of England in December [1] - The removal of the term "cautious" from the Bank of England's statement has further weakened confidence in the British pound, which fell to around 1.3130 against the dollar [1] - The current market logic is driven by intertwined policy expectations and political developments, with short-term volatility likely to remain elevated [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged nearly 3% recently, driven by weak U.S. economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by year-end [1][3][5] Economic Indicators - U.S. private sector job cuts exceeded 150,000 in October, marking the highest level for this period in over 20 years, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [3] - The U.S. consumer confidence index dropped significantly to 50.3 in November, the lowest since June 2022, below market expectations [3] - Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve stand at 64%, with a 77% probability for January [3][4] Government Actions - The U.S. Senate has advanced a funding measure to reopen the government, which could enhance the clarity of economic data related to employment and inflation [4] - The potential end of the government shutdown is expected to shift market focus back to deteriorating U.S. fiscal prospects, historically supporting gold investments [4] Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have seen a decline of approximately 6% since reaching a record high of $4,380 per ounce in mid-October, yet remain up over 56% year-to-date [5] - Analysts predict gold prices could range between $4,200 and $4,300 per ounce by year-end, with further increases expected in the first quarter of next year [5] Gold Token Developments - The rise of gold tokens, such as Tether Gold (XAUT), has been noted, with XAUT's market cap increasing from $1.44 billion to nearly $2.1 billion in October, reflecting a 60% surge [6] - Gold tokens currently represent about 1% of the stablecoin market, with a total market cap of approximately $3 billion compared to $300 billion for dollar-backed stablecoins [6][7] Investment Risks - Concerns have been raised regarding the risks associated with gold tokens, including counterparty risks and the reliability of redeeming physical gold [7][8] - Recent reports indicate that even stablecoins pegged to the dollar can break their peg during extreme market conditions, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in the gold token market [7]

Group 1 - Market risk appetite has notably rebounded due to the U.S. Senate passing a temporary funding bill, signaling an end to the government shutdown, which has strengthened the dollar [1] - Gold prices are consolidating near three-week highs around $4,120, supported by expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a probability exceeding 60% [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown continues to stimulate some safe-haven demand for gold, despite the upward pressure on gold prices being limited by the dollar's rebound [1] Group 2 - The latest employment report from the UK shows an increase in the unemployment rate to 5.0%, the highest in recent years, alongside slowing wage growth, reinforcing expectations for a dovish shift from the Bank of England in December [2] - The GBP/USD exchange rate has faced downward pressure, dropping to around 1.3130, with potential for further declines if key support levels are breached [2] - Overall market sentiment is driven by policy expectations and political developments, with a focus on the U.S. House's vote on the funding bill and upcoming economic data releases [2]

来源：市场资讯 消息面： 11月11日，金价周一强势上涨，单日涨幅达2.8%，收于每盎司4111.39美元，创下两周多以来的最高收 盘水平。上周公布的疲软经济数据使市场对美联储政策的预期转向鸽派，12月降息的可能性依然较高。 近期数据显示美国10月就业岗位减少，消费者信心显著下滑，这些因素共同强化了市场的宽松货币政策 预期。根据CME FedWatch工具，目前市场定价显示12月降息概率为64%，至明年1月概率进一步攀升至 77%。有分析师预计，到今年年底黄金价格可能升至每盎司4200-4300美元区间，并认为明年第一季度 达到5000美元仍是一个合理目标。与此同时，美国参议院周日推进结束政府停摆的法案，也为市场消除 了一个不确定性因素，进一步支撑了黄金的避险吸引力。 国际黄金： 昨日黄金持续反弹，行情重回极端情绪化看涨状态，日线收得一实体饱和大阳线，贯穿突破20日线4080 压力，站上4110上方。回顾昨日黄金上涨，主要原因还是受美政府停摆担忧、美联储降息预期以及地缘 局势带来的避险情绪加持影响，而这种偏激看涨情绪沉寂一段时间后，突然又再度被集中拿来炒作，导 致行情走势显得诡谲异常，对此务必还是要谨慎对待， ...