杨志勇表示，明年我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，这和今年的财政政策取向一以贯之，财政在国 家治理中的基础和重要支柱作用将得到进一步发挥。"加强财政科学管理"等安排，将更充分地释放和提 升财政政策效能，更好护航经济运行、推动经济增长目标的实现。 新华社北京12月11日电 宏观政策是护航经济稳定运行的重要手段。12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工 作会议提出，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，并明确要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，要继续实施适度 宽松的货币政策。 做好明年经济工作，政策取向备受关注。会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提 质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 "明年的政策取向释放出'更加积极有为'的鲜明信号。"中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇表示，宏观政策 加大调控力度，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，将更好引导发展预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量 的合理增长，为实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基础。 "保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量""加强财政科学管理"……会议明确了财政政策发力方 向。 在货币政策方面，会议也作出明确安排："把促进经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the articles revolves around the current monetary policy stance of the central bank, characterized by "loose monetary policy and tight credit," which is expected to influence the bond market dynamics in the near future [1][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Analysis - The central bank has repeatedly emphasized the need to "nurture liquidity" and maintain "appropriate looseness" in monetary policy this year [1]. - Historical trends indicate that periods of "loose monetary policy and tight credit" often yield the highest bond value, as increased liquidity from the central bank typically flows into the bond market [1]. - Current indicators suggest that while credit remains tight, the monetary policy is still considered loose, with the SHIBOR rate reflecting stable funding costs within the banking system [3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Future Expectations - The economic momentum appears weak, leading to speculation about potential interest rate cuts; however, there are no strong signals for aggressive stimulus from the central bank at this time [4]. - The GDP growth target of 5% for this year is deemed achievable, which may reduce the urgency for significant economic stimulus measures [4]. - A constructed index measuring monetary policy strength indicates that the current policy is weaker than last year, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - The bond market is currently experiencing a lack of clear direction, characterized by weak fluctuations, as the macroeconomic environment is favorable but monetary policy remains ambiguous [4]. - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity, being the only ETF tracking the ten-year government bond index, thus offering good allocation value [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to economic work in 2026, focusing on both policy support and reform innovation, while aiming for quality improvement and reasonable growth in the economy [1][2]. Economic Policy Direction - The conference advocates for a "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy" to enhance economic stability and growth [1][4]. - There is an expectation for fiscal policy to strengthen, particularly in areas of "investment in people" and consumer support [2][4]. - Monetary policy is anticipated to allow for interest rate cuts of 10 to 20 basis points, with a focus on efficiency and proactivity [2][4][7]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - The conference identifies "domestic demand as the leading force" and emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption through specific actions, including a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income [2][8]. - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area for policy focus in 2026, with measures to enhance consumer spending and support for social security [2][10]. Risk Mitigation in Real Estate - The conference stresses the need to "actively and prudently resolve risks in key areas," particularly in stabilizing the real estate market [3][11]. - Measures include encouraging the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing projects and reforming the housing provident fund system [11][12]. - The focus on real estate is seen as crucial for preventing risks from spreading to local government debt and the financial system [3][12][13]. Fiscal and Monetary Coordination - There is an emphasis on the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, with fiscal measures expected to be more direct and monetary policies remaining moderately loose [4][5]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to maintain around 4%, with an increase in the scale of fiscal deficits to approximately 6 trillion yuan [6][7]. Long-term Economic Planning - The conference indicates that policy formulation will focus on long-term economic development rather than short-term stimulus effects, aligning with the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5][6]. - The approach will include a comprehensive evaluation of various economic policies to ensure consistency and effectiveness in macroeconomic policy direction [5][6].

中央经济工作会议于10日至11日在北京召开，会议总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026 年经济工作。 值得注意的是，会议五次提到"金融"。会议明确要"引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小 微企业等重点领域"，同时还要"继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用""创新科技金融服务"并"深入推进中 小金融机构减量提质"，为2026年金融工作指明了方向。 财政货币政策继续协同发力 会议明确，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政 科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。重视解决地方财政困难，兜牢基层"三 保"底线。严肃财经纪律，坚持党政机关过紧日子。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，会议明确"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"，与明 年经济工作要"提质增效"的整体基调相互呼应。温彬预计，在"更加积极"的财政政策取向下，2026年新 增政府债务规模或进一步提升至12.5万亿元左右，以支撑广义财政支出强度、兜牢基层"三保"底线；赤 字率维持在4.0%左右水平，对应赤字规模约为5.9万亿元，较上年增加约2000亿元，增加部分主要由中 央承担 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bond market may continue to experience a weak oscillating pattern in 2026, similar to 2025, due to concerns over rising inflation and ongoing strict regulations [1] - There is a consensus expectation that the bond market will struggle to form a clear direction, influenced by the transition from expansive fiscal policies to stable fiscal policies if economic growth targets decline [1] - The key to the bond market's performance in 2026 will be the substantial changes in monetary policy, which may require the emergence of bottom-up risk events to stimulate active monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The potential shift in fiscal policy could alleviate supply pressure on government bonds if the fiscal deficit rate decreases alongside lower economic growth targets [1] - The bond market may see a "slow at first, fast later" rhythm, with a period of dormancy in the first quarter, followed by active engagement in the second and third quarters, potentially leading to an annual low point [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report interprets the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, highlighting a continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a stable overall expression in economic strategy [1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will maintain a more proactive tone, aiming to stimulate economic growth through increased government spending and investment [1] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy emphasizes "reasonable recovery of prices," placing greater importance on price levels and transmission mechanisms [1] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand and the large domestic market are identified as key drivers for economic growth, with a focus on boosting consumption through institutional revenue increases [1] Investment - There is a clear intention to stabilize investment and address downward pressure on investment levels, indicating a proactive approach to counteract investment declines [1] Technology and Industry Policy - The report outlines two main focuses: building an international innovation center and key industrial chains, with specific directions for industries such as AI+, digital trade, green trade, marine economy, and new energy systems [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report interprets the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, highlighting a continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a stable overall expression in economic strategy [1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will maintain a more proactive stance, indicating a commitment to stimulate economic growth through increased government spending and investment [1] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy emphasizes "reasonable recovery of prices," placing greater importance on price levels and transmission mechanisms within the economy [1] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand and the large domestic market are identified as key drivers for economic growth, with a focus on boosting consumption through institutional revenue increases [1] Investment - There is a clear intention to stabilize investment and address downward pressure on investment levels, indicating a proactive approach to counteract potential declines [1] Technology and Industry Policy - The report outlines two main focuses: building an international innovation center and key industrial chains, with specific directions for industries such as AI+, digital trade, green trade, marine economy, and new energy systems [1]

Monetary Policy Overview - The central economic work conference held on December 10-11 maintained a policy tone of "moderate easing," emphasizing the efficiency and proactivity of policy tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The macro policy orientation shifted from "strengthening extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," indicating a focus on long-term economic cycle changes [2] Policy Implementation Characteristics - Throughout 2025, the monetary policy maintained a consistent moderate easing tone, with RRR cuts and interest rate reductions implemented to ensure stable funding rates [3] - Fiscal policy was notably proactive in 2025, with significant government bond issuance and increased fiscal spending in the first half of the year, aligning with the macro policy orientation [3] Core Objectives and Framework - The core objectives of monetary policy include enhancing expectations management, with increased flexibility in total monetary operations to address economic risks and uncertainties [4] - Coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is crucial, aiming to create a conducive environment for stable financial markets and successful government bond issuance [4] - A new policy interest rate transmission mechanism and liquidity management framework were established, focusing on reforming the monetary policy transmission mechanism [5] Future Outlook - For 2026, the focus will be on stabilizing growth and managing risks while emphasizing expectations management and fiscal coordination [5] - The first half of 2026 may see a need for total easing operations to lower social financing costs and stabilize expectations due to high growth base effects [5] - The central bank is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds through a 0.5 percentage point RRR cut in early 2026, alongside continued use of MLF and reverse repos for medium-term liquidity [6] Interest Rate Dynamics - The central bank's interest rate reduction space has opened up due to the Federal Reserve's continuous rate cuts, with expectations for a 10 basis point reduction in the policy rate in both the first and second halves of 2026 [7] - By the end of 2026, the 7-day reverse repo policy rate is projected to decrease to 1.2%, with the LPR also expected to follow suit [7]

点评：世界银行上调中国2025年经济增速预期，充分体现了国际社会对中国经济长期增长潜力的积极预 期。通过多元化出口市场和内需拉动，中国在全球经济不确定背景下显示出强劲的韧性。 | 2025年12月12日 星期五 | NO.1中央经济工作会议：灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经 济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流 动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领 域。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。要增强宏观政策取向一致性和有效性。将各类经济 政策和非经济政策、存量政策和增量政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估。健全预期管理机制，提振社会 信心。 NO.2央行开展1186亿元7天期逆回购操作 12月11日，央行公开市场开展1186亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%。Wind数据显示，当日有 1808亿元逆回购到期。 点评：央行开展1186亿元7天期逆回购操作的决定，显示了在流动性管理方面的精准 ...

In the Federal Reserve's battle between fighting inflation and limiting unemployment, the latter side carried the day Wednesday and could also have an edge heading into 2026 if labor market weakness becomes more evident through an apparent overcounting of jobs numbers.In the immediate term, worries over the employment situation meant a vote, albeit divided by a 9-3 margin, to lower the central bank's key interest rate by a quarter percentage point. Further down the road, there are indications that policymak ...