Core Viewpoint - JD.com has issued a statement clarifying that it has not launched any stablecoin products or partnerships, countering recent misleading information circulating in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Company Developments - JD.com has been exploring the stablecoin sector, with founder Liu Qiangdong mentioning six innovative projects, including stablecoins, aimed at reducing cross-border payment costs by 90% and improving efficiency to within 10 seconds [4]. - The first phase of JD.com's stablecoin is expected to be pegged to the Hong Kong dollar and US dollar, currently in the second phase of sandbox testing, focusing on cross-border payments, investment transactions, and retail payments [4]. - JD Coin Chain Technology was selected as one of the first participants in the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's "stablecoin sandbox," alongside other firms like Round Coin Technology and Standard Chartered Bank [4]. Group 2: Industry Context - The Hong Kong Legislative Council has passed the "Stablecoin Ordinance," establishing a licensing system for fiat-backed stablecoin issuers, which enhances the regulatory framework for virtual asset activities in Hong Kong [4]. - As regulatory policies become clearer and technology matures, JD.com's stablecoin could play a significant role in global cross-border payments and financial services, offering users a more convenient and efficient payment experience [5].

Group 1 - The stock of Multi-Point Intelligence surged nearly 90% in early trading, and was up 53% before the report was published, with a trading volume exceeding 120 million HKD [1] - Multi-Point Intelligence is preparing to apply for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong [1]

Core Insights - Stablecoins are gaining mainstream recognition in the financial narrative, supported by regulatory frameworks like the GENIUS Act in the US and the Stablecoin Ordinance in Hong Kong [1] - Circle, as the first publicly traded stablecoin company, saw its market capitalization exceed $50 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 120, indicating high market expectations for growth [1][5] - The primary revenue model for major stablecoin issuers is interest arbitrage, with Circle projected to earn $1.56 billion in interest income in 2024, constituting 99% of its total revenue [3] Business Models - Major stablecoin issuers primarily profit from interest arbitrage by investing dollar reserves into low-risk, interest-bearing assets like US Treasury bonds [3] - Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, reported profits exceeding $13 billion, primarily from similar investment strategies [3] Market Position - Tether holds a significant first-mover advantage, capturing 60%-70% of the market share since its launch in 2014, while USDC, launched in 2018, holds about 20%-24% [4] - USDC emphasizes compliance and transparency, which has attracted regulated entities, but its market penetration is limited in less regulated environments [4] Regulatory Environment - The scarcity of stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong may increase their value, similar to the experience with virtual bank licenses [6] - Over-regulation could stifle innovation and push issuers to less regulated regions, potentially limiting the value of licenses [6] Application Scenarios - The most promising application scenarios for licensed stablecoin issuers include cross-border payments and decentralized finance (DeFi), due to their scalability and cost-effectiveness [7] - Cross-border payments are highlighted as the most certain application, with USDC significantly reducing transaction times and costs compared to traditional methods [7] Impact on Financial Institutions - Traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, may face revenue restructuring as stablecoins could replace some cross-border payment services [9] - Stablecoins enhance financial inclusion, especially in developing regions, while market power may concentrate among compliant institutions due to regulatory barriers [10] Future Trends - The emergence of multi-currency and multi-asset stablecoins could lead to a digital currency exchange rate system, potentially replicating international monetary dynamics [11] - The dominance of the US dollar in stablecoins may persist unless non-dollar stablecoins achieve significant scale, with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) adding complexity to the competitive landscape [11]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 03 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 07 月 03 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要点评 【浙商计算机 刘雯蜀/叶光亮】京北方（002987）公司点评：携手国富量子，共同拓展稳定币生态——20250702 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：7 月 2 日上证指数下跌 0.09%，沪深 300 上涨 0.02%，科创 50 下跌 1.22%，中证 1000 下跌 1.01%，创业板 指下跌 1.13%，恒生指数上涨 0.62%。 行业：7 月 2 日表现最好的行业分别是钢铁（+3.37%)、煤炭（+1.99%)、建筑材料（+1.42%)、农林牧渔（+0.84%)、 银行（+0.75%)，表现最差的行业分别是电子（-2.01%)、通信（-1.96%)、国防军工（-1.94%)、计算机（-1.64%)、 美容护理（-1.09%)。 资金：7 月 2 日全 A 总成交额为 14051 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing battle for global financial order revolves around the dominance of the US dollar, particularly concerning the $37 trillion US national debt, which poses significant risks to the global financial system [1] - President Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate the burden of national debt, but Fed Chairman Powell remains resistant to such measures to maintain the Fed's independence [1][3] - In April, there was a notable sell-off of US Treasuries, with global central banks selling $30.1 billion and private investors offloading $20.5 billion, indicating a significant loss of confidence in US debt [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration is exploring a new regulatory framework for stablecoins, aiming to anchor them 100% to dollar assets and invest reserves in short-term US Treasuries, which could create new demand for US debt [4] - However, this strategy carries risks, as a loss of trust in stablecoins could lead to severe financial repercussions, potentially worse than the 2022 TerraUSD collapse [4] - China is responding with its own digital currency initiatives, including the digital yuan and stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong, which are designed to enhance cross-border payment efficiency [5][6] Group 3 - The efficiency of Hong Kong's stablecoin payments is significantly higher than traditional SWIFT payments, with transaction times reduced to seconds and costs nearly eliminated, indicating a shift in financial infrastructure [6] - The competition between the US and China in the digital currency space will ultimately depend on who can offer more equitable and efficient payment solutions, with China currently positioned as a leader in this area [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Qiming Star (启明星辰), is currently not involved in stablecoin-related business but is actively monitoring the security risks and developments associated with stablecoins [2][3][5][6][7]. Group 1: Company Performance - As of July 2, 2025, Qiming Star's stock closed at 15.54 yuan, down 1.52%, with a turnover rate of 2.54%, a trading volume of 184,600 shares, and a transaction value of 287 million yuan [1]. - On the same day, the net outflow of main funds was 39.14 million yuan, while retail and speculative funds saw net inflows of 12.95 million yuan and 26.19 million yuan, respectively [8]. Group 2: Stablecoin Engagement - The company has confirmed that it does not currently have any business related to stablecoins and is focusing on the associated security risks and application advancements [2][3][5][6][7]. - The company has received inquiries regarding its potential involvement in stablecoin solutions, particularly in light of Hong Kong's regulatory developments, but has reiterated its lack of engagement in this area [4][5][6][7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Stablecoins Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the stablecoin industry and its relationship with fiat currencies, particularly in the context of the International Bank for Settlements (BIS) report [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Limitations of Stablecoins**: BIS highlights that stablecoins lack uniformity, elasticity, and compliance integrity, making them unable to replace fiat currencies as mainstream options, serving only as a supplement [2][5]. - **Characteristics of Stablecoins**: Stablecoins are characterized by private issuance, full reserves, cryptocurrency attributes, and a shadow currency role. They are dependent on fiat currencies and cannot disrupt them [7][6]. - **Market Impact**: The release of the BIS report significantly affected the stock prices of related companies, such as Circle, indicating high market sensitivity to stablecoin developments [4]. - **Current Applications**: Stablecoins are primarily used in high-frequency trading on cryptocurrency exchanges, with only a small percentage utilized for payment scenarios, yet the volume remains substantial [9]. - **Cross-Border Payment Efficiency**: Stablecoins demonstrate advantages in cross-border payments, offering faster and cheaper transactions compared to traditional methods, which can take days or weeks [11]. Regulatory Developments - **Legislative Actions**: The U.S. and Hong Kong are moving towards regulating stablecoins to manage their connection to fiat currencies and enhance the influence of the U.S. dollar [3][14]. - **Hong Kong's Market Potential**: The Hong Kong market is expected to see the development of a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin aimed at facilitating cross-border trade settlements, with potential for a renminbi stablecoin as well [15][16]. Challenges and Opportunities - **Impact on Traditional Banking**: Stablecoins pose challenges to commercial banks, which may respond by tokenizing deposits to leverage blockchain technology for improved transaction efficiency [12][13]. - **Future of Stablecoins**: The evolving regulatory landscape and market dynamics suggest that stablecoins will continue to gain attention, with traditional financial systems increasingly recognizing their significance [5][14]. Additional Important Points - **Historical Context**: Stablecoins emerged in 2014 to address high costs and delays in transferring funds, particularly for cryptocurrency trading [8]. - **Payment Limitations**: Cryptocurrencies are deemed unsuitable for domestic payment clearing due to their point-to-point nature and slow transaction confirmation times [10]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call regarding stablecoins, their market implications, regulatory responses, and future prospects.

每周一景： 湖南永州九嶷山风景名胜区 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观】 代币化：货币、金融的历 史性变革 ——全球货币变局研究九 需求环比下降，总库存由降转升。 上周（本报告中的上周均指2025年6月23日至6月27日当周）五大品种钢材表观消费量879.85万吨，环比下降4.33万吨； 其中，建材表观消费量305.18万吨，环比下降2.71万吨；板材表观消费量574.67万吨，环比下降1.62万吨。上周五大品种钢材产量为880.99万吨，环比上 升12.48万吨；总库存为1340.03万吨，环比上升1.14万吨，维持近年同期最低位水平。上周247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.82%，环比持平；高炉产能利用率 为90.83%，环比上升0.04个百分点；电炉开工率为61.54%，环比持平；电炉产能利用率为52.36%，环比下降0.09个百分点。短期来看，行业已进入传统 淡季阶段，我们预期钢铁需求将维持震荡趋弱态势，总库存或逐步转入累库通道。 盈利率环比持平。 上周45港进口铁矿库存13930万吨，环比升36万吨，维持偏高位水平。上周螺纹模拟平均吨毛利145.6元/吨，环比降20.6元/吨，热卷模 拟平均吨毛利91. ...

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the focus on high-growth sectors driven by policy support and industrial innovation, including technology growth, new consumption, cyclical growth, and financial innovation [1]. Group 1: High-Growth Sectors - The technology growth sector includes strong performance certainty in computing hardware, the semiconductor industry benefiting from domestic substitution, and military industry resonating with domestic and international demand [1]. - New consumption is represented by emotional consumption, which serves as a new engine to boost consumption [1]. - The cyclical growth sector combines cyclical and growth characteristics, with short-term price increase catalysts [1]. - The financial sector is driven by the decline in risk-free interest rates and innovations in stablecoins [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Following the rating disclosures, the downward adjustment of convertible bond ratings has removed constraints on low-priced convertible bonds, leading to an accelerated exit of bank convertible bonds [1]. - High Yield to Maturity (YTM) and dual low convertible bonds are expected to become the new base assets [1]. - The impact of the June rating downgrades is manageable, reflecting market preparedness for the downgrades of weaker quality convertible bonds, with no concerns over credit risk in a relatively strong equity market [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to continue strengthening in July, influenced by three main factors: earnings forecasts from A-share listed companies, potential new actions from Trump after the tariff delay, and important mid-year meetings setting the economic outlook and policies for the second half [2]. - The report suggests that the valuation logic of the Chinese stock market in 2025 is driven by domestic industrial innovation and a systematic reduction in market discount rates, which will attract incremental capital [2]. - The easing of external tensions further strengthens the internal certainty logic, indicating potential upward movement in the stock market before the end of July [2]. Group 4: Convertible Bond Market - High valuations do not restrict the rise of convertible bonds, as the equity market is expected to remain strong, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand in the convertible bond market [3]. - The median price of convertible bonds reached 124.21 yuan, a new high for 2025, driven by optimistic expectations for underlying stocks [3]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with strong performance certainty and significant valuation space, such as AI, military, semiconductors, humanoid robots, stablecoins, innovative drugs, and emotional consumption [3].

上半年已结束，美国金融市场在大幅波动中交出一份还算满意的答卷：标准普尔500指数上涨5.50%；十年期国债 收益率由年初的4.527%降至4.218%，债券市场基本保持平稳。 在残酷的现实面前特朗普政府不得不低头，关税新政宣布后的几天内又决定7月8日前暂缓执行。美国政府的关税政 策朝令夕改让企业无所适从，投资者也惴惴不安，标准普尔500指数大跌后踯躅不前。据新华社报道，5月10日至11 日，中美在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈并发布联合声明；6月9日，中美经贸代表团在英国伦敦开启中美经贸磋商 机制首次会议。中美经贸谈判极大缓和美国"对等关税"所造成的国际贸易紧张气氛，美国金融市场也逐步恢复到年 初的信心，股指于5月底反弹至特朗普就职时的水平。而6月初以色列-伊朗冲突对美国股指走势的实际影响不大。 美国就业依然保持强劲，通货膨胀处于可控状态；美联储最近不断释放减息信号; 有关稳定币草案在参议院通过， 再度刺激加密货币市场。在此大背景下，标准普尔500指数最终以历史新高结束上半年交易。 美国债券市场却经历了严峻考验。美国联邦政府总负债不断扩大，新通过的税收法案（大而美法案）提高了政府的 债务上限，债券市场特别是国债发 ...