美联储主席鲍威尔：我们将边走边做出判断，我们将通过中性利率的实际作用来了解它。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：就目前而言，关于中性利率存在多种不同看法。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.5% this week, with potential dissent from dovish members Waller and Bowman, indicating a possibility of faster rate cuts in the future as more Trump-appointed officials join the board [1] Group 1 - The chief U.S. economist at Platts, Urupeirsi, anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week [1] - Dovish members Waller and Bowman may argue for a rate cut, citing restrictive monetary policy due to inflation related to tariffs being offset by other factors [1] - The neutral interest rate is suggested to be close to 3%, which could support arguments for lowering rates [1] Group 2 - Powell is expected to guide the FOMC to wait as long as possible before the next rate cut, with a higher likelihood of a cut in October compared to September [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is cautious about lowering interest rates too quickly and is waiting for more data before making further decisions [1] Group 1 - The RBA decided to maintain the interest rate at 3.85% during its recent meeting, marking the third time it has refrained from a rate cut in four meetings, which surprised the market [1] - The majority of the nine committee members believe that the current rate of 3.85% remains moderately restrictive, but there is uncertainty about how much further rates can be lowered before reaching neutral [1] - The meeting minutes indicate that committee members consider it wise to cautiously lower rates as the need for policy restriction diminishes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent statement by Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicates a shift in the internal perspective on current monetary policy, suggesting a potential move towards interest rate cuts due to reassessments of economic fundamentals, employment, and inflation [1] Group 1: Reasons for Supporting Rate Cuts - Waller's first reason highlights that new import tariffs may temporarily raise prices, but these are one-time changes and should not warrant a high interest rate response, as inflation expectations remain stable [3] - He emphasizes that the current federal funds rate is significantly above the neutral rate, which is estimated to be around 3%, while the current rate exceeds 5%, indicating a tight monetary policy that is not supported by economic data [3] - Economic growth is projected to be weak, with GDP growth in the first half of the year potentially at only 1%, and unemployment nearing long-term levels at 4.1%, suggesting that maintaining high rates is a lagging response to economic conditions [3] Group 2: Employment Market Concerns - Waller warns against being misled by seemingly stable employment data, noting that many labor market indicators may be revised downwards, and private sector job growth is nearly stagnant [4] - He points out that risks in the employment market are accumulating, advocating for preemptive measures rather than reactive ones when unemployment rises significantly [4] - The statement signals that the current high interest rate policy may be disconnected from the actual macroeconomic situation, with inflation near targets and economic growth insufficient, making continued high rates seem inappropriate [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller expresses a desire to provide slightly more stimulus through interest rate cuts [1] - Evidence suggests that the neutral interest rate is not far from 3% [1] - There has been no discussion with the Trump administration regarding the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicated that the current interest rate level is above the neutral rate level prior to the pandemic [1] Group 1 - The current interest rate is considered higher than the pre-pandemic neutral rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker indicates that the economy is approaching a neutral interest rate, suggesting a potential stabilization in monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is assessing its current position relative to the neutral interest rate, which is a critical benchmark for monetary policy [1] - Harker's comments reflect a broader sentiment within the Federal Reserve regarding the current economic conditions and interest rate adjustments [1] - The indication of being close to the neutral rate may influence market expectations and investment strategies moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent FOMC meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate decisions, primarily influenced by differing opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - A majority of officials lean towards a potential interest rate cut later this year, but there is a notable faction that believes current inflation levels are still far from the 2% target, which does not justify an immediate rate cut [3]. - The FOMC has maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, with 10 out of 19 officials predicting two rate cuts within the year, while 7 believe there will be no cuts until 2025 [3]. Economic Data and Risks - Current economic data has not provided sufficient signals for action, with ongoing risks related to inflation and a weak labor market [5]. - There is a lack of consensus on the impact of tariffs, with opinions ranging from minimal effects to concerns about long-term implications [5]. Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a likelihood of rate cuts in September and December, as investors await key economic indicators such as CPI and unemployment rates [7]. - The Federal Reserve is also considering enhancing policy communication strategies to clarify its economic forecasts and analyses [7]. Overall Sentiment - The prevailing sentiment among Federal Reserve officials is one of caution, emphasizing patience over aggressive action in response to economic data [8].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that some policymakers believe the current federal funds rate may not be significantly above the neutral rate [1] Group 1 - Some decision-makers at the Federal Reserve expressed that the current federal funds rate might not be far above the neutral rate [1]