萨默斯说，"米兰关于分析中性利率对连贯地思考货币政策至关重要的看法是正确的，不过，我必须 说，我对他的分析质量非常失望。" 美国前财政部长萨默斯猛烈抨击了米兰作为美联储理事的首次演讲，称其未能为大幅降息提供适当的分 析基础。 萨默斯在一档节目上说，"我想不起来在纽约经济俱乐部或由一位美联储理事发表过比这更弱的演讲 了，如果这就是特朗普总统一直倡导的激进降息的最佳理由，那么这个理由比我先前设想的还要弱。" 米兰在9月17日美联储做出利率决定前，曾是美国总统特朗普的白宫首席经济学家，后加入美联储。他 上周就所谓的中性利率发表了讲话。这是一个理论上的利率设定，即政策既不刺激通胀和就业市场，也 不起刹车作用。他认为，中性利率已被特朗普的政策推低，使得美联储当前的立场过于紧缩。 这位新任美联储理事在9月17日的会议上，曾持异议主张进行更大幅度的50个基点降息。他在演讲中得 出结论，政策基准利率现在"大约过高了2个百分点"。 作为哈佛大学教授的萨默斯赞扬了米兰对中性利率的重视，不过，现任美联储主席鲍威尔和其他决策者 长期以来一直淡化在实时决策中辩论中性利率的价值。 这位前财长指责米兰没有讨论联邦政府正在扩大的赤字，也没有 ...

来源：环球市场播报 全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有： 美国制造业活动连续第七个月萎缩 订单指标再次回落 美国9月制造业活动连续第七个月萎缩，订单量回落，进一步表明制造业缺乏动能。 美国供应管理协会（ISM）周三发布的数据显示，9月制造业指数小幅上升0.4点至49.1。该指标全年一 直在窄幅区间内波动，低于50表明制造业处于收缩状态。 订单指标下降2.5点至48.9，在8月短暂扩张（为1月以来首次）后重新陷入收缩。9月工厂就业下滑幅度 略有收窄，但整体水平仍处于历史低位。 1、美国制造业活动连续第七个月萎缩 订单指标再次回落 2、英国拟对新上市公司股票免征印花税 3 、马斯克成为第一个净资产接近5000亿美元的人 4 、 英特尔股价大涨 拟为AMD代工生产芯片 5、 谷歌在云计算部门裁减了100多个与设计相关的职位 6、萨默斯抨击美联储理事米兰首秀演讲：大幅降息论缺乏分析支撑 根据福布斯亿万富翁指数，特斯拉首席执行官马斯克周三成为历史上第一个净资产接近5000亿美元的 人。 截至美国东部时间下午3点43分，马斯克的净资产为4995亿美元。 英特尔股价大涨 拟为AMD代工生产芯片 英国拟对新上市公司 ...

来源：滚动播报 美国前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯批评了斯蒂芬·米兰作为美联储理事的首次演讲，称其未能为大幅降息提 供合理的分析依据。"我想不出在纽约经济俱乐部发表过的，或美联储理事发表过的比这更缺乏分析性 的演讲，"萨默斯在彭博电视Wall Street Week节目对David Westin表示。"如果这是特朗普总统一直倡导 的激进降息的最佳论据，那么这甚至比我之前想象的还要弱。"米兰在9月17日利率决议前加入美联储， 此前他是特朗普的白宫首席经济学家。他上周在演讲中谈到所谓的中性利率。他认为，特朗普的政策将 中性利率压低，使得美联储当前的货币立场过紧。 ...

美联储副主席Jefferson：上次会议降息25个基点使美联储更接近中性利率水平。没有考虑过任职到期后 的情况。美联储仍随时准备动用所有工具，以履行其使命。 ...

Group 1 - The assessment of "neutral interest rate" is a critical part of a central bank's monetary policy framework, influenced by factors such as productivity growth and demographic changes [1] - Schroders believes that the perception of how close central banks are to the "neutral interest rate" is more important than the actual level, as it affects their response to new data [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) considers its current policy rate close to neutral, having halved its rate since mid-2024, while the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will reach neutral rates in the coming quarters [1] Group 2 - Schroders assesses a 60% probability for a "soft landing" of the US economy, with a 30% chance of a "hard landing" and 10% for "no landing" [2] - The current US Treasury yields have significantly decreased, reflecting market predictions of a 50% chance of a "hard landing" for the US economy [2] - The US labor market is currently stagnant, with companies adopting a cautious approach to hiring and layoffs, indicating high uncertainty [2] Group 3 - Schroders maintains that the necessity for further rate cuts by the ECB is limited, a view supported by recent statements from ECB President Lagarde [3] - The yield curve may steepen due to deteriorating supply-demand dynamics for long-term bonds, with slight upward movement in Eurozone bond yields expected [3] - Schroders is cautiously optimistic about certain investment opportunities, particularly in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), covered bonds, and emerging market bonds, while remaining patient regarding corporate credit [3]

美联储新任理事、"特朗普国师"Stephen Miran首次重大政策演讲引发华尔街强烈质疑，经济学家纷纷批评其大幅降 息论缺乏说服力。 9月22日，Miran向纽约经济俱乐部发表演讲呼吁大幅降息以快速达到中性利率水平，引发华尔街经济学家们一致 质疑，摩根大通经济学家在最新研报中则进行了全面驳斥。 9月30日，据追风交易台消息，摩根大通在最新研报中指出，Miran提议将联邦基金利率快速降至2.5%或更低，但 其论证"可疑"、"不完整"且"几乎不具说服力"。 研报称，摩根大通分析师对Miran的论证方法提出了多项质疑，包括关于中性利率(r)的争议和通胀分析的缺陷。该 行还批评了Miran演讲中"选择性引用"引用政策论据。 与此同时，最新经济数据进一步削弱了Miran的论据，多项经济数据显示美国经济表现强劲，与Miran的降息主张 相矛盾。 Miran成为美联储"异类" Stephen Miran作为特朗普任命的美联储新理事，在9月22日向纽约经济俱乐部发表演讲，呼吁大幅降息以快速达到 中性利率水平。 Miran的核心论点是特朗普政府在贸易、移民、税收和监管方面的政策显著降低了防范通胀所需的利率水平，因此 当前的基 ...

Group 1 - The core argument presented by Stephen Miran emphasizes the necessity for significant interest rate cuts to achieve a neutral rate that neither stimulates nor hinders economic growth [1][2] - Miran's stance is based on an assessment of the Trump administration's policies, which he believes have lowered the necessary interest rates to combat inflation, suggesting that the current benchmark rate is too high [1] - Miran has indicated that he may continue to vote against the Federal Reserve's decisions if they do not align with his views on the need for substantial rate cuts [1] Group 2 - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, with some officials warning about limited room for further easing in the context of high inflation [2] - Recent economic data, including a notable increase in Q2 economic growth and steady consumer spending, has contributed to policymakers' hesitance regarding immediate rate cuts [2] - Some economists acknowledge that while Miran's logic has merit, they question whether the neutral rate is as low as he claims, suggesting that if it were, the economy and financial markets would have already faced severe downturns [2]

美联储威廉姆斯：中性利率很重要，但政策由数据驱动。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has learned from the post-pandemic inflation surge and is better prepared to handle future economic shocks [1] - The Monetary Policy Committee has gained significant insights into economic activity, corporate pricing behavior, and the evolution of inflation expectations during periods of high inflation and economic volatility [1] Summary by Categories - **Economic Understanding** - The Reserve Bank has developed a deeper understanding of structural drivers of inflation and supply shocks [1] - Enhanced use of high-frequency data allows for more timely and precise monitoring of economic conditions [1] - **Policy Tools** - New tools have been developed for estimating neutral interest rates and conducting scenario analysis [1] - These improvements ensure that the Monetary Policy Committee can maintain price stability while effectively navigating future economic shocks [1]

Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of at least 150 to 200 basis points from the current range of 4.00%-4.25% [2] - Milan's stance is based on the concept of "neutral interest rate," which he believes is currently around 2%, significantly lower than the existing federal funds rate [2] - He attributes the previous higher neutral rate to government borrowing and increased immigration, which have now slowed due to tightened border policies and rising tariff revenues [2] Group 2 - No new issuances were reported in the primary market today [4] - Three companies had their ratings updated, including New World Development, which terminated a subscription agreement due to current market conditions [5] - Shimao Group is actively negotiating loan extensions and restructuring with domestic creditors, with approximately RMB 22.8 billion of loans successfully extended [5] - Poly Property Group announced a reduction in the coupon rate of a bond by 180 basis points, effective from November 1, 2025 [5] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is expanding its RMB trade financing liquidity arrangement to support offshore RMB business growth [10] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of CNY 165.8 billion at a rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of CNY 4.115 billion for the day [10]