Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, China's economy continued to recover, with multiple indicators showing better-than-expected performance, driven by strong domestic demand and resilient external demand [2][11][15] - Henan Province's GDP reached 14,945.58 billion, growing by 5.9% year-on-year, outperforming both 2023 and 2024 [21][26] - The province's industrial production saw a significant increase, with industrial added value growing by 8.8%, supported by strong performance in mining and manufacturing sectors [22][26] Industrial Performance - The industrial sector in Henan showed robust growth, particularly in high-tech manufacturing and export-related industries, with notable increases in electrical machinery and automotive manufacturing [22][26] - The province's industrial enterprises reported a sales rate of 92.9%, with export delivery values rising by 31.4%, indicating a temporary boost from "export rush" effects [22][26] Consumer Market - Henan's retail sales of consumer goods reached 7400.54 billion, marking a 7.0% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand in essential goods and new policy initiatives [23][26] - The growth in retail sales was particularly pronounced in food and beverage categories, as well as in electronics and home appliances, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending [23][26] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Henan grew by 5.4%, with industrial investment maintaining double-digit growth at 21.9%, primarily focused on equipment upgrades and industrial upgrades [24][26] - Real estate development investment declined by 7.5%, but there were signs of recovery in new housing sales and funding availability, indicating a potential rebound in the real estate market [24][26] Trade and External Relations - Henan's foreign trade saw a remarkable increase, with total import and export value reaching 2042.6 billion, up 28.0% year-on-year, making it the third fastest-growing province in the country [25][26] - The province's exports of electromechanical and high-tech products showed significant growth, with key trading partners including ASEAN, EU, and the US [25][26] Policy Environment - In April 2025, various policies were introduced to enhance consumption and investment, including measures to stabilize prices and promote urban renewal projects [31][36] - The Henan provincial government launched initiatives to strengthen key industries and improve economic recovery, focusing on sectors such as medical equipment and rural development [36][38]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Changes - The easing of US-China tariff tensions has led to a rapid steepening of the bond market, with limited short-term adjustment space expected [1][2] - Long-term bond yields are unlikely to fully recover from previous declines, with resistance levels identified at 1.70% for 10-year bonds and 1.95% for 30-year bonds [2][3] - The current monetary policy environment is expected to remain accommodative, with a significant amount of liquidity in the market, enhancing the attractiveness of long bonds [2][3] Group 2: Mid-term Market Outlook - The bond yield curve is anticipated to steepen during the recovery period, with short-term rates benefiting from the current liquidity conditions [3] - The market's sensitivity to trade tensions has decreased, suggesting that future fluctuations in trade policy may have limited impact on risk appetite [3][4] - Investment strategies should focus on mid to short-duration bonds, credit bonds, and leveraged strategies as the market adjusts [3][4] Group 3: Long-term Market Perspective - The narrative surrounding long-term bond yields is shifting towards a more confident outlook, with expectations for lower yield limits being revised upwards [4] - The previous strategy of "buying every dip" may reach its limits, indicating a need for a more cautious approach in bond market investments [4] - Historical trends suggest a transition towards a strategy focused on bond selection rather than timing, favoring mid to short-duration bonds with higher carry [4]

对于众多中小出口商，即将展开的瑞士会谈，或为这场持续一月有余的关税摩擦带来转机。 从疯狂加税到"改弦更张"，背后是中美政府以及诸多大型科技公司、零售企业之间的博弈。 4月29日，美媒曝出电商巨头亚马逊正计划在商品价格中标注"关税成本"。白宫立即作出强烈反应，称这一做法是"敌对行为"。 几乎同时，全球零售巨头沃尔玛的态度也发生变化。《南华早报》发文称，江苏和浙江两省的部分制造商已接到沃尔玛等美国主要零售商的通知，要求近 日恢复发货。某出口商表示，"新进口关税的成本将由美国客户承担。" 作者 | 谢芸子 编辑 | 郑怀舟 中美"对等关税"的贸易摩擦或迎来转折。 新华社报道，中美经贸双方牵头人将于5月9日至12日在瑞士举行会谈。在5月7日外交部的例行记者会上，发言人林剑进一步表示，此次会谈是应美方请求 举行的。中方坚决反对美国滥施关税这一立场没有任何变化。 与巨头企业相比，没有太多"话语权"的中小贸易公司始终处于被动地位。暂时的平静下，中小企业主也大多处于观望的状态。 "已按照145%的标准执行" 2019年，张黎跟着国内一批头部电商企业做海外仓，将业务扩展到北美。 此后几年间，中国跨境电商行业的发展集中度越来越高 ...

资料图。本文来源：第一财经 突发！极氪拟从美股退市，中概股回流潮或开启 根据吉利汽车公告，吉利汽车收购所有已发行及发行在外的极氪股份及美国存托股票(本集团实益 拥有者除外)，建议购买价为每股极氪股份2.57美元或每股美国存托股票25.66美元，该价格较最后 交易日美国存托股票于纽交所的收市交易价溢价约13.6%，较截至最后交易日止最后30个交易日期 间美国存托股票于纽交所的成交量加权平均价格溢价20%。 此次极氪私有化资金来源包括吉利汽车拟发行新股、现金储备及债务融资（倘需要）。 受此消息影响，截至美东时间5:30左右，极氪美股盘前大涨超11%至25.1美元，基本接近吉利汽车 私有化极氪的作价25.66美元。 公开资料显示，极氪汽车于2024年5月10日在美国纽交所挂牌上市，当下距离其正式上市时间不到 一年。 对于此次极氪突发合并进吉利汽车的事宜，吉利控股集团董事长李书福表示："面对激烈的市场竞 争和日益复杂的经济环境，我们将审时度势、根据《台州宣言》精神，持续推动汽车业务整合，回 归一个吉利。同时我们仍将保持与美国和国际资本市场的密切沟通与合作。" 去年9月，李书福正式发布《台州宣言》，宣布通过"战略聚焦、 ...

马斯克主动找上了中方，希望能行个方便，给予稀土出口资格，面对中方开出的谈判条件，美方会答应吗？ 马斯克 特朗普打出的关税牌，反而击中了亲密盟友——马斯克。 就在近日，特斯拉公布了今年第一季度的财报，净收入只有4.09亿美元，同比下降了71%，堪称是一次严重的"滑铁卢"。 不仅如此，特斯拉的人形机器人项目，也因为受到了中国对美反制，尤其是稀土出口管制的影响，面临原材料短缺的风险。 这一系列现实考验摆在面前，使得身为特斯拉CEO的马斯克，也不得不暂时放下"政府效率部"的工作，来解决特斯拉当前的营收问题。 然而全球几乎90%的精炼加工稀土产品，都来自于中国，马斯克要解燃眉之急，只能找上中国帮忙，想办法让中方行个方便。 特斯拉工厂 当初马斯克花费数亿美元，支持特朗普竞选，就相当于是将身家性命，全盘押注到了特朗普身上，一荣俱荣、一损俱损。 就在4月22日，马斯克表态称，自己现在跟中方沟通，希望获得稀土出口的许可，为了让中方放心，他还保证过这些稀土只会被用于生产机器人，不会用于 军事目的。 作为特朗普的心腹大将，马斯克如今主动跟中国建立沟通渠道，以避免中美关税摩擦对特斯拉的业务造成影响，其实也反映了大多数美国企业现在的真 ...

通过港口、运价、经济景气度、韩国出口等高频追踪出口景气度。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 特朗普的"对等关税"和随之而来的"90天暂缓"让二季度的中国外贸形势变得复杂，我们梳理了一些可 以有效跟踪美国进口和中国出口节奏的 高频指标。 第一类：中美港口数据 一是美国主要港口的进口集装箱吞吐量。 易得的美国港口数据包括洛杉矶港进口集装箱吞吐量（周度）、洛杉矶港、长滩港、纽约新泽西港的集 装箱月度吞吐量数据。 截至4月19日，洛杉矶港口进口集装箱吞吐量同比增长8.6%，依旧处于相对高位。另外，部分机构也 会发布航运相关数据，如全美零售联合会预估美国7月集装箱进口量将减少27%，8月减少28%。 二是中国的港口货物和集装箱吞吐量 。 中国交通运输部每周公布港口完成货物和集装箱吞吐量数据。从历史数据看， 货物吞吐量同比增速与 中国进出口同比增速之间的相关性比较高 。 截至4月20日，4月中国港口完成货物、集装箱吞吐量同比分别增长4.4%、7.5%，3月为4.2%、 8.9%，港口货运依旧维持韧性，并未失速。 第二类：集装箱运价数据 一是中国公布的出口集装箱运价指数（ CCFI ）以及主要航线的集装箱运价指数，在一定 ...