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美联储宣布维持基准利率不变 帮主郑重解读:通胀抬头却按兵不动 背后藏着哪些博弈?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 00:38
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth time since January, signaling a cautious approach amid mixed economic indicators [1][3] - Recent data shows a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, indicating inflationary pressures, while private sector employment numbers fell significantly below expectations, suggesting a cooling job market [3][4] - Economists are speculating that the Fed may need to lower interest rates twice this year, with the first potential cut in September, due to underlying weaknesses in the economy, particularly in the manufacturing sector [3][4] Group 2 - Investors should closely monitor the relationship between inflation and employment, as these factors will directly influence the timing and magnitude of any future interest rate cuts by the Fed [4] - The impact of fluctuating tariff policies and rising oil prices on supply chains and corporate costs needs to be analyzed, as these factors could further affect inflation [4][5] - In the context of anticipated interest rate cuts, sectors such as financials and growth stocks may present investment opportunities, warranting further research into fundamentally sound and reasonably valued stocks [5]
帮主郑重:20年财经老炮儿的炒股道与术,少走十年弯路的心得!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-08 10:19
Group 1 - The core concept of investing involves understanding both the "Dao" (principles) and "Shu" (methods) in the stock market [1][3] - "Dao" refers to the underlying logic of market value, emphasizing the importance of a company's ability to generate sustainable profits as the fundamental driver of stock price movements [3][4] - Long-term investment should focus on a company's fundamentals, including industry prospects, management capabilities, and competitive advantages [3][4] Group 2 - "Shu" encompasses practical skills such as position management, timing of trades, and strategies for profit-taking and loss-cutting [4][5] - Effective investment requires a balanced approach, where understanding the market principles ("Dao") is complemented by practical execution skills ("Shu") [5] - Investors often face challenges when they lack either the understanding of market principles or the practical skills, leading to poor investment decisions [4][5]
山海:金银上涨力度达到预期,周期内不过分追高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-03 03:01
Group 1 - Gold and silver have shown upward trends, with gold reaching 3392 and silver at 34.7, indicating a bullish market outlook [2][4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to significantly impact gold and silver prices, leading to increased market volatility [4][5] - The technical analysis suggests that gold may face resistance around 3400, and traders are advised to wait for potential pullbacks before entering new long positions [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic gold has been on a bullish trend, with recent highs at 792 for Shanghai gold and 783 for Rongtong gold, suggesting further upward potential [5] - Silver has reached its target of 34.7, but there are concerns about a potential peak, with a possible downward adjustment if it falls below 34 [6] - International crude oil is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with support at 60 and potential upward movement towards 66 and 68 [7] Group 3 - Domestic fuel has shown strong performance, with recent highs at 2770, and the overall trend remains bullish with potential targets of 2800 and 3000 [8]
隔夜市场解读:英伟达业绩炸裂黄金跳水 中长线布局窗口已现
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-28 23:50
美债收益率这边,10年期国债收益率涨了3个基点,报4.4773%,两年期也小幅上涨。收益率的波动反映了市场对美联储政策的预期,会议纪要里几乎所 有委员都担心通胀比预期顽固,看来加息虽然停了,但降息可能没那么快,咱们做投资得把这层因素考虑进去,别指望流动性马上宽松起来。 黄金和原油的走势也挺有意思。现货黄金在英伟达财报后跳水,从3290美元跌到3276美元,COMEX黄金期货也跟着跌。这说明市场风险偏好稍微回升, 资金从避险资产转向了科技股。原油倒是涨了1.6%,WTI原油收高,因为OPEC+维持产量配额不变,但市场在关注那八个自愿减产的成员国会不会增 产,这会影响原油的供需平衡,能源股的中长线逻辑还得看全球经济复苏的情况。 还有两个国际新闻得说说。美伊有望达成核协议,这要是成了,可能会缓解中东的紧张局势,原油供应也可能增加,对能源价格有压制作用。俄乌筹备 第二轮会谈,市场希望能看到局势缓和的信号,毕竟冲突拖得越久,对全球经济的拖累越大。特斯拉说6月推出Robotaxi,这对电动车和AI板块是个刺 激,不过具体落地效果怎么样,还得看实际进展,咱们可以关注相关产业链的公司。 最后总结一下,美股短期受财报和政策预期 ...
周末大事儿!“帮主郑重”为你解读A股那些事儿
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-25 15:49
哈喽各位股民朋友!我是帮主郑重,在财经圈摸爬滚打20年,别的不敢说,中长线投资这事儿咱门儿清!今儿周末闲着没事儿,咱就唠唠这周末影响A股 的那些「大新闻」,掰开揉碎了给大伙讲明白,下周开盘心里也好有个谱儿! 二、国内政策划重点!这些板块要「发光」 咱国家最近憋了个大招——全力搞「高质量发展」,这词儿听着虚,实则暗藏玄机! • 科技创新:周末要是传来某企业研发出「卡脖子」技术的消息,别犹豫,这类「硬科技选手」就是A股未来的「三好学生」。想想看,连光刻机零部件 都能自己造了,股价能不「起飞」? • 消费升级:快到年底了,促消费政策可能扎堆儿来!周末要是看到「家电以旧换新补贴加码」「新能源汽车下乡」这类消息,赶紧瞅瞅消费板块,尤其 是跟咱老百姓生活贴得近的「吃喝用度」企业,旺季来了! 划重点:政策就像「风向标」,跟着国家战略走,咱散户也能「站在风口上」! 三、新能源又双叒叕有新动作?这波机会别错过! 新能源圈儿就没消停过!周末要是刷到「光伏补贴延长至2030年」「某车企固态电池量产」这类消息,麻溜儿记下来! 一、国际政策风吹草动,A股咋应对? 最近全球经济跟坐过山车似的,欧美那旮旯又开始折腾货币政策了!简单说,要是 ...
5月8日A股走势分析及策略:3344点攻坚战:政策底牌能掀翻天花板吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 00:28
Group 1 - The central bank's recent monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts and mortgage relaxations, have injected significant liquidity into the market, yet the market remains cautious around the 3344-point resistance level [3][4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts was anticipated, but the mixed signals from Chairman Powell regarding inflation and potential future rate cuts have led to volatility in the dollar index and a surge in gold prices [3][4] - The technology sector is experiencing notable activity, particularly with the resurgence of the Hongmeng PC, which has positively impacted related stocks, although caution is advised regarding the sustainability of such trends [3][4] Group 2 - Consumer recovery indicators, such as the May holiday data, show promise, but there are concerns about the sustainability of certain "pseudo-influencer" brands that rely on subsidies [4] - The new energy vehicle sector is witnessing a rise in sales despite falling lithium prices, leading to improved profit margins for manufacturers [4] - Investment strategies suggest maintaining a balanced portfolio, with a focus on high-quality manufacturing and consumer sectors, while being cautious of market volatility [5]
五月的天,市场的脸:政策暖风能否吹开A股艳阳天?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 00:48
Group 1 - The offshore RMB has appreciated significantly, indicating that global capital views the Chinese market as a safe haven [3] - The rise in the FTSE A50 index suggests that foreign investors are increasingly attracted to A-share valuations [3] - Gold prices reaching $3,400 reflect global skepticism towards the Federal Reserve's policies, highlighting a shift in risk sentiment [3] Group 2 - Upcoming important meetings are expected to introduce policies that may boost infrastructure investment and consumer recovery, while the real estate sector may see new regulations [3] - The market is anticipated to experience sector rotation, with financials benefiting from RMB appreciation and consumer sectors recovering from recent data [3] - Long-term investment strategies should focus on companies with solid performance metrics and clear industry positioning, rather than short-term market fluctuations [4]
基金清盘预警!长盛先进制造亏超50%,帮主郑重教你中长线避坑逻辑
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-06 06:27
咱先弄明白为啥会走到清盘这一步。先进制造听起来是个挺光鲜的赛道对吧?但中长线投资最怕啥?怕跟风追热点!这两年制造业受经济周期影响多大啊, 上游原材料涨价、下游需求疲软,再加上行业竞争白热化,好多细分领域产能过剩,基金经理就算有三头六臂,也难在这种环境里突围。再说了,基金规模 一开始就没做起来,长期低于5000万,管理费都不够支棱的,基金公司也扛不住啊。说白了,这既是市场大环境的锅,也跟基金本身的策略和管理脱不了干 系。 作为专注中长线的投资者,帮主给大伙儿提个醒:买基金可不能光看名字光鲜。首先得瞅瞅基金公司的"底盘"稳不稳,老牌机构不一定全对,但至少风控体 系更成熟;其次看基金经理的履历,是频繁跳槽的"流星"还是扎根赛道的"恒星";最重要的是,别把鸡蛋全放一个篮子里,尤其是这种行业主题基金,波动 大得吓人。您要是奔着中长线去的,得选那种能穿越周期的配置,比如均衡型基金或者搭配点债券类资产,别一门心思扎进单一赛道里硬扛。 最后再唠唠咱"帮主郑重"的原则:中长线投资玩的是"稳"字诀,不追风口不赌运气,只赚能看懂的钱。这次长盛基金的事儿给咱们敲了个警钟——投资路上 坑太多,咱得带点"怀疑精神",多研究少冲动。想知道 ...
黄金突破3360!帮主郑重解析中长线”稳涨密码“
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-06 05:50
Group 1 - The recent surge in spot gold prices has seen it break through the $3,360 per ounce mark, with a slight pullback following the peak, indicating strong market interest in gold as an investment [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including a cooling of interest rate hike expectations in the U.S., a weakening U.S. dollar, and central banks globally accumulating gold as a safety net, which affects supply and demand dynamics positively [3] - The current market sentiment is volatile, and while short-term gains are evident, a cautious approach is advised for long-term investors, suggesting to wait for potential price corrections before making new investments [3] Group 2 - The commentary emphasizes the importance of a long-term investment strategy, likening it to a marathon rather than a sprint, and encourages investors to focus on understanding market fundamentals rather than chasing short-term trends [3] - Future monitoring of global inflation data and geopolitical situations is recommended as these factors are considered significant variables that could impact gold prices [3]
A股这50家公司被机构扎堆“点赞”,中长线机会藏在哪?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 11:27
各位老铁假期快乐。这里是帮主郑重的复盘分享时间。做了20年财经记者,现在更爱以中长线视角琢磨股市。最近A股出了个新鲜事——市值管理50强名单 揭晓,咱们今天就掰开揉碎了聊聊,这些被机构"盖章"的公司到底有啥看头。 先说筛选标准,这次榜单有点意思,专挑"舍得花钱"和"有人气"的主儿。首先得在2024年掏出真金白银搞回购,预案金额上限超5000万;其次分红要大方, 累计分红超1亿;最后还得是机构眼里的"香饽饽",一年被调研超40家。这三个条件卡下来,能上榜的基本都是既会"搞钱"又会"搞关系"的选手——对股东 够慷慨,跟市场沟通够积极,中长线投资最看重的"确定性",往往就藏在这些细节里。 再看盘面走势,有8家公司挺惹眼,比亚迪、徐工机械这些名字大伙都熟,它们的均线走出了"多头排列"的漂亮形态。啥意思呢?简单说就是30日均线"托 着"60日均线,60日均线又"托着"120日均线,层层叠叠往上走,就像搭好的楼梯,股价趋势稳稳向上。这种图形对中长线投资者来说是个积极信号,说明主 力资金在默默布局,趋势一旦形成,往往有持续发力的潜力。 最后敲个黑板,帮主看这名单最大的感触是:A股正在悄悄变天。过去靠概念炒作的时代慢慢退潮, ...