前言： 能力不在脸上，本事不在嘴上！在投资的路上我不敢保证能带你赚多少，因为只要你配合，盈利从来没 有上限，每一位学员我都用自己最大的能力为其谋取利润，如果你还沉迷亏损，那我无话可说，但是若 想盈利，请找我金晟富，有实力才能这么自信！（有缘认识是一种缘分，也不会让你损失什么，先看实 力再谈合作，你赢我陪你君临天下，你输我陪你东山再起！)需要带单的朋友，可在博主个人简介寻找 联系！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 12.10黄金行情走势分析： 黄金技术面分析：周二黄金早间走回撤形态，下探4170位置再次拉升，近期走势过山车行情较多，盘面 强势但不连续，这就是震荡行情的代表性，今晚后半夜凌晨三点，将迎来本年度最后一次利率决议，市 场对本次黄金降息预期还在不断升温，那么黄金今天白天该怎么布局呢？黄金在美联储利率决议前夕， 那么大概率还是继续维持震荡的走势。 从技术面来看，黄金价格在4170-4165美元/盎司区间下轨附近获得支撑后强势反弹，验证了此前市场分 析中关于"短期行情围绕区间震荡洗盘"的判断。日线级别上，金价已站稳4200美元关键心理关口，短 线多头动能充沛。今日行情可划分为白盘 ...

【黄金期货行情表现】 12月8日，沪金主力暂报958.70元/克，涨幅达0.15%，今日沪金主力开盘价962.34元/克，截至目前最高 967.88元/克，最低954.50元/克。 【宏观消息】 日本首相高市早苗与美国总统特朗普的通话内容引发关注。日本《周刊文春》杂志透露，特朗普对日本 措辞严厉，要求其不要插手台湾问题。日本外相茂木敏充在回应相关问题时含糊其辞。美国《华尔街日 报》也报道称，特朗普要求高市早苗在台湾主权问题上克制言论，避免挑衅中国。 美国9月核心PCE物价指数月率0.2%，预期0.20%，前值0.2%。 经济学家预计美联储将于12月降息，2026年或再有两次降息。美联储将于12月10日华盛顿时间下午2点 公布决议。 【机构观点】 隔夜外盘金银价格高位震荡，市场焦点仍集中于美联储货币政策。美国近期疲软的就业与通胀数据，进 一步强化了市场对本周美联储降息的押注。与此同时，全球地缘不确定性及白银显性库存偏低的结构性 问题，为价格提供了额外支撑。 然而，盘面已显现出高位滞涨迹象。当前的金银价格已较为充分地计 入了未来多次降息的预期，市场情绪趋于亢奋。历史经验表明，"买预期、卖事实"的行情模式在美联储 ...

华尔街对美股的看多情绪创下新高，奥本海默（Oppenheimer Asset Management）给出了目前华尔街最激进的预测。该公司首席投资策略师John Stoltzfus预计，受企业盈利强劲增长和美国经济韧性的推动，标普500指数将在2026年进一步攀升至8100点。 据彭博汇总的数据显示，Stoltzfus设定的这一目标位意味着标普500指数将在当前水平上再上涨18%，在所有受访策略师的预测中位列第一。该团 队指出，乐观预期主要基于美国经济数据的持续韧性，以及标普500成分股企业在今年大部分时间内的业绩表现均超出预期，预计明年企业盈利增 幅将达到12%。 该团队强调，支撑这一乐观预测的核心在于每股收益（EPS）将持续保持两位数增长。Oppenheimer预计，随着美国经济表现出强于预期的韧性， 企业盈利能力将进一步修复，明年整体盈利增幅有望达到12%。这种由业绩驱动的上涨逻辑，被视为支撑估值扩张的关键因素。 然而，市场短期内也面临由于预期兑现而引发的波动风险。摩根大通策略师警告称，鉴于市场对美联储本周降息的预期已达到92%并被充分计 价，近期的股市涨势可能会陷入停滞。投资者或倾向于在年底前锁定收益， ...

Core Viewpoint - The political polarization, debt expansion, and fiscal imbalance in the United States are expected to continue impacting global markets, making the identification and management of U.S. political risks a crucial aspect of global asset allocation [1][8]. Group 1: U.S. Government Shutdown and Political Risks - The recent temporary funding bill signed by President Trump ended a 43-day government shutdown, but it highlights long-term vulnerabilities in the U.S. fiscal system and the reality of political polarization [4][5]. - The funding extension only lasts until January 30, 2026, indicating that the fiscal "cliff" has merely been postponed, and future budget negotiations may lead to another shutdown [4][5]. Group 2: Economic and Investment Implications - Political risks are increasingly transforming into investment risks, as fiscal uncertainty diminishes the predictability of the U.S. economy, particularly affecting key investment areas like infrastructure and research [5][7]. - The total U.S. debt has surpassed $35 trillion, exceeding 120% of GDP, which raises concerns about future debt ceiling negotiations and potential increases in treasury yields, impacting global financing costs [5][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The end of the shutdown has temporarily improved market sentiment, with stock markets and the dollar index rebounding, but historical trends suggest this optimism may not last [6][7]. - The U.S. fiscal issues represent a long-term structural risk, with rising interest payments potentially consuming a significant portion of federal revenue in the next decade [7][8]. Group 4: Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to enhance risk defense by optimizing global asset allocation, increasing exposure to quality assets in Asia and Europe, and using defensive assets like gold and short-term bonds to hedge against volatility [8]. - Establishing a dynamic policy risk monitoring system is recommended for institutional investors to assess the effects of U.S. fiscal negotiations and Federal Reserve policies [8].

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - The overall gold prices in domestic brand stores remained stable, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang quoting 1333 CNY per gram, the highest price among gold stores [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold stores is maintained at 98 CNY per gram, with Shanghai China Gold being the lowest at 1235 CNY per gram [1] - Platinum prices have seen a decline, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum jewelry price dropping by 10 CNY per gram to 646 CNY per gram [1] Group 2: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has slightly increased by 0.7 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands [2] - The recycling prices for various brands are as follows: 949 CNY per gram for gold, 952 CNY for Cai Zi Gold, 941.30 CNY for Chow Sang Sang, 950.60 CNY for Chow Tai Fook, and 959.50 CNY for Lao Feng Xiang [2] Group 3: International Gold Prices - On Thursday, spot gold initially rose but later fell, reaching a high of 4244.94 USD per ounce before closing down 0.58% at 4170.84 USD per ounce [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is reported at 4163.69 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.17% [4] - The fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to market expectations regarding U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve interest rate policies, with a noted sell-off across various markets including equities and cryptocurrencies [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market was primarily driven by a psychological battle surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, leading to a dramatic price surge as short sellers rushed to cover their positions [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On October 29, spot gold prices surged from a low of $3943.89 per ounce to a high of $4030.03, marking a single-day increase of over $70 [1]. - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.00-4.25% to 3.75-4.00%, marking the first consecutive rate cuts in a year [3]. - Following the Fed's announcement, Chairman Powell's comments about future rate cuts being "far from certain" caused market expectations for a December rate cut to drop from 92% to 62%, leading to a rise in the dollar index and a subsequent decline in gold prices [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Consumer Sentiment - The gold market experienced significant fluctuations, with prices dropping below $4000 just days prior, reaching a low of $3971.38 on October 28, a 3.2% decline [5]. - In the domestic market, gold prices rebounded above 910 yuan per gram on October 29, after a notable drop in prices the previous day [5]. - Consumer sentiment has been affected, with individuals expressing anxiety over the rapid price changes, likening gold purchases to stock trading [5]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risks have eased, contributing to reduced demand for gold as a safe haven, while technical factors indicated that gold was in an overbought state after a significant price increase [7]. - Central bank gold purchases continue to provide long-term support for gold prices, with global demand reaching 1249 tons in Q2 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase [7]. - The Federal Reserve's internal disagreements regarding future monetary policy add to market uncertainty, with two officials opposing the recent rate cut [9]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - The gold ETF market reflects changing investor sentiment, with the Shanghai Gold ETF seeing a nearly 1% increase and a turnover of 287 million yuan as of October 29 [11]. - Despite a cooling in investment demand for gold, consumer interest has surged as prices dipped below $4000, indicating a potential buying opportunity [11]. - Long-term investors are advised to maintain a gold allocation of 5-10% in their portfolios, with a strategy to gradually build positions if prices adjust to the $3800-$3850 range [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the fifth cut since September 2024. This led to significant market volatility, particularly in gold prices, which initially surged but then fell sharply due to market reactions to the Fed's statements [1][3]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, spot gold prices briefly rose to $4020 per ounce before dropping below $3980, illustrating the classic market behavior of "buy the rumor, sell the news" [3]. - Prior to the rate cut, market expectations for a reduction were extremely high, with a 98% probability, leading to a significant increase in gold prices from $3726 to a peak of $4400, an over 18% rise in just over a month [3]. Economic Context - The market environment was particularly sensitive, with gold prices having recently experienced a decline from $4400 to below $3900, a drop of $500, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and progress in U.S.-China trade talks [5]. - The volatility in gold prices was also attributed to technical indicators, with the RSI remaining above 70, indicating overbought conditions [7]. Investor Behavior - The Fed's hawkish signals regarding future rate cuts led to profit-taking among investors, resulting in a rapid decline in gold prices shortly after the announcement [3][7]. - There is a notable divergence in investor sentiment, with some viewing the rate cut as a signal that bullish momentum has peaked, while others maintain a long-term bullish outlook based on expectations of continued monetary easing [9]. Interest Rates and Gold Prices - Despite the rate cut, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remains high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is a critical factor affecting gold prices [11]. - The Fed's cautious stance on inflation may slow the pace of real interest rate declines, further complicating the outlook for gold [11]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks have been net buyers of gold, with global official gold reserves increasing by 10 tons in July 2025, and the People's Bank of China having increased its gold holdings for ten consecutive months [7][15]. - This structural buying by central banks is expected to provide long-term support for gold prices, although it may not fully offset short-term speculative selling [9][15]. Future Outlook - HSBC forecasts that gold prices will fluctuate between $3700 and $4050 by the end of 2025, with potential upward pressure from a weak dollar, despite possible limitations on price increases if the Fed's rate cuts are less aggressive than expected [13]. - Historical patterns indicate that gold typically experiences significant volatility following initial rate cuts, with an average volatility of 12% in the month following such events [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate range to 3.85%-4% during the October meeting, influenced by poor employment data [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut with a probability of 99.3%, indicating strong consensus among investors [4]. - The decision comes after a significant drop in non-farm employment numbers, with the lowest figure reaching negative 13,000 and the latest at only 22,000 [1]. Group 2: Powell's Press Conference - Fed Chair Powell's upcoming press conference will focus on two main issues: the continuation of the rate cut policy and the impact of high tariffs on inflation [2]. - Powell's perspective on whether high tariffs will have a temporary or lasting effect on prices will be crucial for the future of the Fed's rate cut strategy [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - The dollar index may experience a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, where the anticipated rate cut does not lead to a significant decline in the dollar [4]. - Technically, the dollar index shows signs of a potential trend reversal, having broken through previous bearish trend lines, with key resistance levels at 100 and 100.23 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continued to decline, reaching a low of $3,886, marking a new low since October 6, indicating a bearish sentiment among mainstream investors towards short-term gold prices [1][5]. Market Overview - The U.S. unemployment rate in October remained stable at 4.35%, showing no significant change from September [3]. - The core CPI year-on-year for September was reported at 3%, slightly lower than the previous and expected values of 3.1%, suggesting stable inflation [3]. - The likelihood of a significant recession in the U.S. economy remains low given the stability in employment and inflation data [3]. Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate to a range of 3.85% to 4% [5]. - Market expectations for the rate cut are high, with a 99% probability of occurrence, which may lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, potentially causing an unusual rebound in the dollar index [5]. - The dollar index is currently at a relative low not seen in over three years, and it is expected to fluctuate between 95 and 100 as long as U.S. economic data does not show unexpected declines [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices peaked on October 20 and have since experienced significant declines, breaking below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $3,977 [7]. - The next key support level to watch is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $3,721, which has a high probability of being tested in the medium term given the strong downward momentum [7].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant declines, with prices dropping over 30 yuan in a single day, falling below 2636 yuan per kilogram, causing panic among investors as their holdings lose value rapidly [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in gold prices is primarily driven by a decrease in safe-haven demand due to easing geopolitical tensions, particularly with European leaders supporting peace negotiations regarding Ukraine [1] - The rebound of the US dollar index has added pressure on gold prices, as better-than-expected manufacturing data has renewed market confidence in the dollar [3] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has not materialized, leading to a sell-off in gold as investors shift from buying on speculation to selling on reality [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have rapidly retreated from historical highs, with over 40 record highs followed by necessary corrections due to overbought conditions [3] - The surge in global gold ETF holdings to a five-year high indicates a sharp increase in liquidation demand, reflecting capital flight from the gold market [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Banks have raised minimum investment thresholds and issued warnings against leveraged gold trading to protect inexperienced investors from potential debt traps [5] - Long-term investment in gold remains attractive, with central banks increasing their gold reserves and the proportion of gold in global foreign reserves reaching new highs [5] - For retail investors, specific products like the ten-gram accumulation gold from Bank of China and the twenty-gram auspicious gold from Industrial and Commercial Bank of China are recommended for easier management [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, including a strong dollar and potential geopolitical stability, long-term forecasts remain bullish, with institutions predicting gold prices could reach $4,500 to $4,900 per ounce by 2026 [7] - Investment strategies should be flexible, with recommendations for a phased approach to buying gold, such as adding to positions as prices decline [9] - The importance of diversified asset allocation is emphasized, as gold, while valuable, is not a panacea for all investment challenges [11]