Group 1: Corn Market - The corn futures for March reached a peak of 2300 CNY/ton, but the overall trend remains weak [4] - On January 12, the China National Grain Reserves Corporation's Jilin branch auctioned nearly 30,000 tons of corn, all sold at a premium. However, on January 15, only 20% of the 16,000 tons auctioned were sold, indicating a significant drop in transaction rate [4] - The Jilin branch plans to auction 71,000 tons on January 16, suggesting that market sentiment is still waiting to be released ahead of the Spring Festival [4] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - The U.S. biofuel policy has released positive signals, leading to a surge in U.S. soybean oil prices, which in turn boosted soybean prices. However, the supply side of U.S. soybeans is unlikely to provide new positive drivers, shifting focus to demand changes and South American production [19] - As of January 14, 93.9% of Argentina's soybean planting is complete, with a quality rate of 61%, a decrease of 4 percentage points week-on-week. The Buenos Aires province's early soybeans are entering a critical growth stage, requiring soil moisture to maintain yield potential [19] - Recent active trading in imported soybeans and forward soybean meal contracts reflects increased replenishment willingness due to falling meal prices, indicating a structural tightness in the market despite overall ample supply [19] Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price of eggs in major production areas continues to rise, with the average price in Hebei's Guantao at approximately 3.33 CNY/jin, an increase of 0.09 CNY/jin from the previous day [21] - The strong spot price trend is driving near-month contracts higher, but uncertainties remain around the market dynamics before and after the Spring Festival [21] - The expected decline in stock levels is projected to continue into Q1 2026, with an anticipated drop to approximately 1.299 billion birds by April 2026 [21] Group 4: Live Pig Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas is approximately 12.74 CNY/kg, with stable spot performance and near-month contracts recovering from previous discounts [23] - Data indicates a 0.36% month-on-month increase in breeding stock, while fattening stock decreased by 5.2% [23] - Market sentiment is improving as spot prices rise, with some optimistic producers showing reluctance to sell, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [23]

Group 1 - After the New Year, the live pig spot price has shown a fluctuating trend within a range, with supply pressure easing at the beginning of January due to a reduction in the number of pigs being marketed by large farming groups [1] - As of the end of October 2025, the number of breeding sows in the country was 39.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 heads (1.1% decline), marking the first time since 2019 that the number fell below 40 million [1] - The core logic behind capacity reduction is profit, with pig farming enterprises entering a loss phase in late September 2025, but the loss was small and short-lived, leading to a recovery in profits by year-end [2] Group 2 - Market enthusiasm for replenishing stock has increased again after the New Year, driven by low secondary breeding inventory and a limited number of large pigs in the hands of smallholders [3] - The supply rhythm and price uncertainty are significantly influenced by secondary fattening, with the utilization rate of pig pens dropping to around 30% by the end of December due to increased selling pressure from smallholders [2][3] - The live pig spot price has returned to a fluctuating pattern, with a notable decline in market demand after the New Year, particularly in northern regions, which has suppressed spot prices [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 13, 2026 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. Second - round fattening pen utilization has increased slightly, and the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in January decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. Currently, the breeding side is slaughtering normally [7]. - On the demand side, after the spot price increase, second - round fattening has decreased and is mainly in a wait - and - see state, with reduced replenishment demand. Post - holiday consumption is slowly recovering, and the demand for curing and sausage - making is nearly over. Terminal consumer consumption remains high, but slaughterhouse orders are average after the holiday. The slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses are slowly increasing after the holiday [7]. - Overall, the spot market will fluctuate as post - holiday consumption recovers slowly but remains at a high level, and supply is relatively loose. In the futures market, pig supply is expected to increase slightly, and second - round fattening pressure is still high year - on - year, continuing to exert downward pressure. Although the previous epidemic in the north boosted the 03 contract, the epidemic is currently showing no signs of continuation or spread, and there is a risk of a decline [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures - On the 12th, the main 2603 pig futures contract opened slightly higher, then冲高回落 and closed down. The highest price was 11,845 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,725 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,735 yuan/ton, a 0.25% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,497 lots to 365,587 lots [6]. Spot - On the 12th, the national average price of三元 pigs was 12.72 yuan/kg, a 0.02 yuan/kg increase from the previous day [6]. Group 5: Industry News - According to Yongyi Consulting data, in the week of January 8th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 366 yuan/head, a 45 yuan/head increase from the previous week [8][10] Group 6: Data Overview - As of January 8th, the average profit and loss per self - bred and self - raised pig was basically balanced, a 28 yuan/head increase week - on - week; the average profit per pig from purchasing piglets was - 129.8 yuan/head, a 31 yuan/head increase week - on - week [19]. - In the week of January 8th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 128.54kg, a 0.12kg decrease from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 0.09% [19].

Core Viewpoint - After the New Year, the live pig spot prices are experiencing a range of fluctuations due to supply and demand dynamics, with a notable decrease in terminal demand for pork products [1][4] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - As of the end of October 2025, the national breeding sow inventory was 39.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads (1.1% decline), marking the first drop below 40 million heads since 2019 [1] - The completion rate of large-scale enterprises' pig output in December 2025 was 103.57% of planned output, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure at the beginning of January [1] - The market's attitude towards culling sows has weakened, with the number of culled sows increasing by 19.75% and 11.65% in September and October respectively, but declining by 3.27% and 5.06% in November and December [2] Group 2: Price Trends - The live pig prices are under pressure due to reduced demand for processed pork and a lack of significant increases in terminal prices, despite some support from large farming groups adjusting their output rhythm [1][4] - The market is expected to see a high level of pig supply in the first half of 2026, influenced significantly by secondary fattening operations [3] - The overall supply volume is anticipated to be relatively ample in January, limiting the upward potential for live pig prices [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment - There is a renewed enthusiasm for restocking among farmers, driven by low secondary fattening inventory and a limited number of large pigs in hand [3] - The market is closely monitoring the price differences between fattened pigs and costs, especially in the absence of price-driven incentives for secondary fattening [3] - The demand for large pigs is expected to remain high before the Spring Festival, but the overall weight of pigs being sold is relatively low, which may impact market dynamics [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Feed and Livestock Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 - Researcher: Ye Tian - Company: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - **Pig Market**: Supply pressure remains high, and futures prices are under pressure. In the short - term, pig prices will fluctuate and adjust, with a risk of decline. In the long - term, the supply in the first quarter will increase, and prices after the Spring Festival will be under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be stronger but still above the equilibrium level [4][56]. - **Egg Market**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot price is expected to rise seasonally, but the sufficient supply will limit the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the second quarter may be alleviated, but the overall long - term supply pressure still exists [5][83]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the supply and demand are balanced, and the futures price will fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, the new - season corn supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderately weak, which will limit the upside space [6][103]. Summary by Directory 1. Feed and Livestock Viewpoints Summary Pig - **Spot and Futures**: As of January 9, the national spot price was 12.51 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of contract 2503 was 11770 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the basis of contract 03 was 1160 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton [4][56]. - **Supply**: Since September, the inventory of reproductive sows has been slightly decreasing. The supply will remain high before the first half of the year and decrease marginally after August. In January, the planned pig slaughter of large - scale enterprises decreased month - on - month [4][56]. - **Demand**: The weekly slaughter rate and volume decreased. The Spring Festival stocking period has not started, and the demand growth is weak. The high frozen - meat inventory will suppress the supply in the future [4][56]. - **Cost**: The prices of piglets and binary reproductive sows increased. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was positive, and the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding narrowed. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increased slightly [4][56]. - **Strategy**: In the context of high supply pressure, short the off - season contracts on rallies. Be cautious about bullish on the far - month contracts. The industry can hedge at high levels above the profit [4][56]. Eggs - **Spot and Futures**: As of January 9, the average price in the main production areas was 3.23 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin; the futures price of contract 2603 was 3040 yuan/500 kg, up 89 yuan/500 kg; the basis of the main contract was - 137 yuan/500 kg, weaker by 51 yuan/500 kg [5][83]. - **Supply**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in January corresponds to the replenishment in August 2025, showing a year - on - year and month - on - month decline. The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining, but the base is still large [5][83]. - **Demand**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic demand is expected to increase significantly. The low price of pork and the high price of vegetables increase the substitution demand for eggs [5][83]. - **Strategy**: Currently, the basis is low, and the valuation is high. Do not short on the short - term. Wait for the spot price to rise less than expected and then hedge the post - festival 03 contract at high levels [5][83]. Corn - **Spot and Futures**: As of January 9, the corn flat - cargo price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2330 yuan/ton, unchanged from before the holiday; the futures price of contract 2603 was 2263 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract was 67 yuan/ton, weaker by 37 yuan/ton [6][103]. - **Supply**: The national grain - selling progress was 50%, faster than the same period last year. The supply in the production areas slowed down, and the import policy grain auction had good results [6][103]. - **Demand**: The demand for feed is rigid, but the increase in corn price may lead to an increase in wheat substitution. The deep - processing demand is limited due to low profits and high inventories [6][103]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase the high price of the futures in the short - term. Holders of grain can hedge at high levels on rallies. In the long - term, the demand will gradually recover, but the supply is sufficient, which will limit the upside [6][103]. 2. Variety Industry Data Analysis Pig - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot price first decreased and then increased, with narrow fluctuations. The futures price fluctuated more under the influence of spot and macro factors, and the basis strengthened [4][56]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of reproductive sows is expected to decline slowly. The production performance is at a high level in the past four years. The number of new - born piglets has been increasing since February 2025, indicating high supply in the first quarter of 2026 [16]. Eggs - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot price rebounded from the low level, and the futures price of the main contract was strong, with a slight premium over the spot [61][83]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining. The weekly number of eliminated chickens decreased, and the price of chicken seedlings increased [83]. Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: The national corn price was adjusted within a narrow range. The futures price of the main contract was strong, with a discount to the spot [89][103]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The national grain - selling progress was 50%, faster than the same period last year. The import of corn increased in November. The inventory in the north and south ports increased [6][103].

Group 1: Swine Market Overview - The futures market for live pigs closed at 11,770 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, a decrease of 25 yuan from the previous week [3] - In the spot market, the price of external three yuan pigs in Henan is 12.93 yuan/kg, up 0.28 yuan/kg from last week, while in Jiangsu it is 13.19 yuan/kg, up 0.19 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan it is 12.98 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg [3][12] - The average weight of external three yuan pigs slaughtered nationwide is 123.32 kg, a slight decrease of 0.03 kg from last week [4][14] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The number of breeding sows in December was 5.0202 million, a slight decrease of 0.18% month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 0.47% [4][13] - The slaughtering rate of enterprises is 36.63%, down 3.71 percentage points from last week but up 0.68 percentage points year-on-year [4][15] - The demand for pork has shown a downward trend post-holiday, with a slowdown in fresh product turnover and a decrease in fresh sales rate by 0.59% [4][15] Group 3: Market Trends and Price Movements - The pig price has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the average price increasing week-on-week after a slight decline at the beginning of the week [5][14] - The market sentiment is gradually improving, supported by a decrease in supply and an increase in demand for piglets post-holiday [6][15] - The price of piglets has seen a significant increase in the short term, indicating a potential recovery in replenishment demand [6][15] Group 4: Egg Market Overview - The futures market for eggs closed at 3,040 yuan/500 kg on January 9, 2026, an increase of 89 yuan, or 3.02% [8][16] - The number of laying hens in December was approximately 1.295 billion, a decrease of 0.92% month-on-month but an increase of 7.11% year-on-year [8][16] - The inventory levels in production and circulation segments have decreased, indicating a normalization of stock levels [9][17] Group 5: Demand and Supply in Egg Market - The demand for eggs has been stimulated by pre-Spring Festival stocking, leading to increased purchasing activity among traders [9][17] - The overall supply remains relatively abundant, with a slower rate of old hen culling impacting the supply dynamics [9][17] - The market sentiment is expected to support egg prices in the near term, although there is a need to monitor potential price corrections [9][17]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week (1.5 - 1.11), the spot price of live pigs showed a strong - side oscillation. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 23.2 yuan/kg (last week: 21.75 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan was 12.98 yuan/kg (last week: 12.45 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1556 yuan/head (last week: 1546 yuan/head). The supply was tight due to slow resumption of group slaughter and strong reluctance of retail farmers to sell, while the demand side had negative feedback as downstream entered the loss stage after New Year's Day. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 124.38KG (last week: 124.19KG), a 0.15% MoM increase [1]. - The futures price of live pigs oscillated. The highest price of the LH2603 contract this week was 11925 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11610 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11770 yuan/ton (last week: 11795 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2603 contract was 1030 yuan/ton (last week: 655 yuan/ton) [2]. - Next week (1.12 - 1.18), the spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly. The overall slaughter progress in December was fast, leading to a shortage of pigs in the social group after the Winter Solstice, which drove up the reluctance to sell. Coupled with the entry of secondary fattening, the spot price rose sharply. After the New Year's Day holiday, the negative feedback from the downstream was obvious, and the spot price accelerated its decline. After the holiday, due to the reduction in enterprise slaughter and the reluctance to sell in the social aspect, inventory accumulation occurred again. From the supply perspective, according to the piglet data, the supply will enter a continuous incremental stage until March 2026. There have been multiple rounds of inventory - accumulation sentiment. In October, secondary fattening intervened, the overall supply progress in November was slow, and the weight did not decline significantly in December, so the supply pressure was not effectively relieved. From the demand perspective, the low price in October stimulated demand and increased the enthusiasm for warehousing, and secondary fattening continued to enter the market, which exceeded market expectations but also pre - empted the speculative demand increment for re - inventory accumulation. After the temperature drop in December, the demand for curing and regular demand increased, and the slaughter volume continued to rise. In general, the group continued to accumulate inventory in early January, the weight - reduction plan was postponed, and the feed data increased again, indicating that the social aspect was also under pressure. In mid - January, the demand will enter a vacuum period, and it is expected to be under pressure [3]. - In the futures market, the price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11770 yuan/ton on January 9th. In early January, enterprises reduced the slaughter volume, the weight increased, the social aspect was forced to accumulate inventory, the feed data increased again, the downstream losses were obvious, the negative feedback suppressed the slaughter volume, and inventory accumulation was confirmed. The weight - reduction plan before the Spring Festival has not been implemented, and the pressure is postponed. The negative expectations will continue to suppress the near - term contracts. In October, the losses of piglets stimulated the elimination of productive sows, and the continuous rise in piglet prices drove the repair of the far - end price center. The far - end has entered the stage of expected trading, and attention should be paid to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2603 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12000 yuan/ton [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - This week, the basis was 1030 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 spread was - 445 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Supply - This week's average weight was 124.38KG (last week: 124.19KG). In November, the pork output was 5.46 million tons, a 2.6% MoM decrease; the pork import was 60,500 tons, a 14.16% MoM decrease [13]. 3. Price - No specific summarized price information other than those mentioned above 4. Demand - No specific summarized demand information other than those mentioned above

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 8, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. The enthusiasm for second - round fattening has increased, and the utilization rate of second - round fattening pens has slightly risen. In January, the monthly slaughter of breeding enterprises may continue to increase slightly, and the current slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is controllable. On the demand side, second - round fattening has increased, and there is a rolling restocking demand. Post - holiday consumption is slowly recovering, and there is still room for cured meat and sausage demand. Terminal consumer consumption remains high, but the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average after the festival. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises are slowly increasing after the festival. Overall, on the spot market, post - holiday consumption is slowly recovering, the overall volume is still high, supply is relatively loose, and the spot price fluctuates. In the futures market, pig supply is expected to maintain a slight increase. The demand elasticity before the Spring Festival is strong, and the pressure of second - round fattening is still higher than the same period last year, which continues to put pressure on the market, but the previous epidemic in the north has continued to boost the 03 contract. Currently, the market feedback shows that the epidemic has not continued to spread and remains sporadically seasonal. [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 7th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then rose and fell back, fluctuating downward, and closed with a negative line. The highest price was 11,925 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,740 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,785 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 8,459 lots to 363,111 lots. [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 7th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 12.55 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day. [8] - **Supply - demand Analysis**: As mentioned in the core view, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is slowly recovering. On January 7, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 191,100 heads, an increase of 1,300 heads from the previous day, a decrease of 9,700 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 9,000 heads month - on - month. [9] 2. Industry News - According to Yongyi Information, in the week of January 4, the overall slaughter proportion of small - weight pigs under 90 kg was 5.44%, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous week. Due to the seasonal sporadic occurrence of the epidemic, the slaughter volume of small - weight pigs in many places has decreased compared with the previous period, and currently, the market feedback shows that the epidemic has not continued to spread. [10][11] 3. Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of January 4, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 319 yuan/head, an increase of 12 yuan/head from the previous week. [18] - **Breeding Profit**: As of January 4, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 28.3 yuan/head, an increase of 96 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 160.8 yuan/head, an increase of 95 yuan/head week - on - week. [18] - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of January 4, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.66kg, a decrease of 1.04kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.80%), a decrease of 1.16kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%), and an increase of 2.6kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 2.06%). [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the pig market, short - term price fluctuations intensify due to supply - demand games, while long - term prices are expected to gradually rise but with limited upside potential. For the egg industry, short - term prices may increase seasonally during the Spring Festival, but long - term supply pressure remains. In the corn market, short - term selling pressure needs to be digested, and long - term prices are supported at the bottom but with limited upward movement [5][61][100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Market Review - In December, pig prices first stabilized and then rose. Spot prices increased due to factors like the release of second - fattening and epidemic pigs, and terminal consumption growth. Futures prices also rebounded, with the 03 contract's premium increasing and the basis strengthening. After the New Year's Day stocking ended, slaughter volume declined, and spot prices stagnated and fell [7][10]. 3.1.2 Supply - The inventory of breeding sows is gradually being reduced but remains above the normal level. Pig production performance has improved, and the supply of pigs in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be high. Pig inventory is slowly increasing, and the proportion of standard and large pigs is rising. The monthly average slaughter weight is at a high level in the same period [11][16][24]. 3.1.3 Demand - In December, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses increased. After the New Year's Day stocking ended, slaughter volume may decline, but it may increase again in January due to Spring Festival stocking. The frozen product inventory is at a high level, and its support for consumption has weakened, and it may suppress supply before and after the Spring Festival [34][38][41]. 3.1.4 Cost and Profit - Pig prices rebounded in December, and breeding losses narrowed. Feed and piglet prices fluctuated slightly, and the long - term fattening cost remained low [44]. 3.1.5 Policy - The government aims to guide the orderly exit of production capacity and stabilize prices. It requires the top 25 large enterprises to reduce 1 million breeding sows by the end of January, lower the weight, and prohibit second - fattening. The state mainly conducts reserve rotation [50]. 3.1.6 Driving Summary - Short - term: Price fluctuations intensify due to supply - demand games. Long - term: The price in the first half of the year is not optimistic, and the price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong, but the increase is limited [53][54]. 3.1.7 Valuation - Near - term contracts are undervalued, and far - term contracts are neutrally valued [55]. 3.1.8 Strategy - For near - term contracts, adopt a short - selling strategy when prices rebound. For far - term contracts, be cautious about a bullish outlook, and the industry can hedge at a profit [5]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Market Review - In December, egg prices continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the futures price mainly declined, with a slight rebound at the end of the month. The current main contract has a slight premium over the spot, and the basis is at a low level in the same period [67]. 3.2.2 Supply - The number of newly opened - laying hens in January is average. The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining, but the overall supply pressure is still large. In the long - term, the number of newly opened - laying hens from February to May 2026 is expected to decrease, but the supply pressure relief needs time [61][63]. 3.2.3 Demand - In January, as the Spring Festival approaches, demand is expected to improve. The high cost - performance of eggs also drives substitution demand [63]. 3.2.4 Driving Summary - Short - term: Egg prices are expected to rise during the Spring Festival, but the increase is limited due to sufficient supply. Long - term: Supply pressure is expected to gradually ease, but it takes time, and attention should be paid to culling and external factors [91][92]. 3.2.5 Valuation - The current basis is low, and the overall valuation is high [94]. 3.2.6 Strategy - Do not short the market in the short - term. Wait for the spot price to rise less than expected and then hedge the 02 and 03 contracts after the Spring Festival [63]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Market Review - In December, corn prices rose and fell alternately. The spot price had strong support at the bottom, and the futures price first fell and then rose. The current main contract has a discount to the spot, and the basis is at a high level in the same period [100][101][104]. 3.3.2 Supply - The national grain sales progress is 45%, and the supply in the producing areas has slowed down. The import of corn in November increased, and the inventory in the north and south ports changed. The 2025/2026 corn supply is expected to be in balance with demand, with limited upward price space [100][105][107]. 3.3.3 Demand - The high inventory of pigs and poultry supports the rigid demand for feed. However, if the corn price continues to rise, the demand for wheat as a substitute may increase. The deep - processing demand is limited due to low profits and high product inventory [100][115][126]. 3.3.4 Driving Summary - Short - term: There is still selling pressure to be released. Long - term: The cost has strong support, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, limiting the upward space [100]. 3.3.5 Valuation - The futures price is at a relatively low level, and the basis is at a high level in the same period, with a neutral - low valuation [135]. 3.3.6 Strategy - Be cautious about chasing high in the short - term, and grain - holding entities can hedge when prices rebound. In the long - term, the demand will gradually be released, but the increase is limited [100].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs showed a pattern of being strong first and then weak this week, with the futures price trending strongly. Looking ahead to next week, the spot price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the LH2603 contract price will continue to face pressure [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Market Review (12.29 - 1.4) - **Spot Market**: The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 21.75 yuan/kg (21.1 yuan/kg last week), the price of live pigs in Henan was 12.45 yuan/kg (12.08 yuan/kg last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,546 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The supply was tight at the end of the month due to reduced volume from large - scale farms and strong reluctance to sell among small farmers. Demand decreased after the New Year's Day holiday. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 124.54KG, a 0.2% month - on - month decrease [2]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2603 contract of live pig futures had a high of 11,880 yuan/ton, a low of 11,670 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11,795 yuan/ton (11,645 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2603 contract was 655 yuan/ton (435 yuan/ton last week) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (1.5 - 1.11) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly. The supply pressure is large as the overall slaughter progress in December was fast, and the supply increase was amplified before the winter solstice. After the winter solstice, the shortage of pigs in some social groups led to reluctance to sell, and the entry of secondary fattening increased the price. However, after the New Year's Day, the downstream negative feedback was obvious, and the price accelerated to decline. From the supply perspective, the supply will enter a continuous incremental stage until March 2026. From the demand perspective, the low price in October stimulated demand, and the entry of secondary fattening was continuous, but it also over - drafted the speculative demand for re - stocking. After December, the demand for curing and normal consumption increased, but after New Year's Day, it entered a demand vacuum period, and the price will continue to be under pressure [3]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11,795 yuan/ton on December 31. During the holiday, the supply from large - scale farms decreased, but the downstream negative feedback was strong, and the price of the spot market dropped rapidly. Pay attention to the change in social sentiment. In January, it may enter a resonance stage between large - scale farms and the social side. The current weight has just started to decline, and the change in feed data is small, indicating the start of active de - stocking. The 3 - month contract will continue to be under pressure. The short - term support level of the LH2603 contract is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12,200 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week's basis was 655 yuan/ton; the LH2603 - LH2605 monthly spread was - 370 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply Data**: This week's average weight was 124.54KG (124.79KG last week). In October, the pork production was 5.605 billion tons, a 5.5% month - on - month increase; the pork import was 7.14 million tons, an 11.14% month - on - month decrease [12].