"如何解读 11 月生猪产能数据"专家电话会 20251207 摘要 2025 年 11 月全国能繁母猪存栏量环比下降 0.62%，同比上涨 0.82%，但较 6 月份高点减少 38 万头，主要受政策引导、市场预期及 生猪疾病影响，养殖户主动淘汰母猪以降低风险。 11 月生猪均价持续下跌，截至 12 月 5 日为 11.13 元/公斤，导致 95% 以上企业亏损，自繁自养模式下每头亏损约 100 多元，仔猪育肥模式下 每头亏损约 300 多元，主要因上半年仔猪补栏成本偏高。 11 月全国平均出栏体重为 124.66 公斤，环比上涨 0.09%，同比下降 0.83%。大型样本企业生猪出栏量环比下降 4.94%，二次育肥补栏目标 骤减 71%，影响市场供应。 11 月生猪市场供应充足，价格下降，因大企业出栏减少但二次育肥补栏 量也减少，南方地区气温较高备货意愿不强，且 12 月计划出栏量环比 增长 3.77%。 预计春节前生猪价格难突破 12 元/公斤，因养殖企业加快 12 月份出栏 节奏，供应充足。腊月中旬或因下游备货增加和养殖集团减少出栏，价 格有望小幅上涨。 Q&A 11 月份全国生猪产能和能繁母猪存栏量的 ...

生猪现货价格弱势运行。11 月整体出栏进度偏慢，10 月积压大量二次育肥，饲料增量印证基础存量 大，虽然，降温后需求提振下游支撑，但是，供需双增阶段，价格持续阴跌，凸显供应压力。从供应角度 来看，根据仔猪数据推演，市场供应进入持续增量阶段，叠加社会面去库需求，9 月供应压力大，本应处 于主动去库阶段，现阶段表现为被动累库，10 月供应延续增量，二育介入导致累库延续，11 月下旬进入 释放供应压力阶段，但目前体重仍未见下降趋势，供应压力未得到有效缓释。从需求角度来看，10 月低价 刺激需求抬升，入库积极性明显提升，二育持续入场，需求端超出市场预期，但亦提前透支再累库的投机 需求增量。综合来看，12 月企业出栏明显缩量，降温后的需求增量已兑现，压栏猪只主被动抛售开启，肥 标价差已大幅走缩，且局部区域存在疫情影响，叠加现金流问题，出栏将持续加速，现货价格继续承压。 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 07 日 生猪：弱势难改，基差逻辑回归 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing a prolonged period of oversupply, leading to significant price declines and deep losses for producers, with the current average price of live pigs falling nearly 30% year-on-year [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shift in trading focus from the 2601 to the 2603 futures contract indicates a temporary easing of pressure on near-term contracts, but the overall rebound remains weak due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [1]. - As of the end of November, the average price of live pigs in China is between 11.4 to 11.7 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a substantial year-on-year decrease [2]. - The current pig production capacity reduction is slow, with only about 800,000 fewer breeding sows in the year, despite a recent decline in the breeding sow population below 40 million for the first time in 15 months [2][3]. Group 2: Production Capacity Challenges - The slow pace of capacity reduction is attributed to three main factors: the resilience of large-scale farms, incomplete capacity reduction among smallholders, and an increase in the number of heavier pigs being raised [2][3]. - Large-scale farms are less inclined to reduce production due to their financial and technical advantages, with a slight increase in breeding sow numbers in certain regions [2]. - Smallholder farmers are hesitant to reduce their herds, hoping for a rebound in prices due to seasonal demand, which has led to a lack of significant capacity reduction [2][5]. Group 3: Supply Pressure and Market Expectations - The phenomenon of secondary fattening has intensified supply pressures, with a notable increase in the proportion of heavier pigs being sold, exacerbating the oversupply situation [4][5]. - Producers are facing a "price inversion" situation where the cost of fattening exceeds the selling price, leading to increased losses [4]. - The expectation of a recovery in demand has not materialized, with consumer spending on dining out at a 15-month low, further complicating the market dynamics [5]. Group 4: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The current regulatory framework aims to balance long-term production capacity control with short-term market stabilization measures, but the effectiveness of these policies is limited by the deep supply-demand imbalance [6][7]. - The Ministry of Agriculture has set a target for breeding sow numbers and will implement counter-cyclical management to address significant deviations from this target [7]. - The temporary meat storage policy is intended to provide short-term market support, but its impact is minimal due to limited storage capacity and the time lag in implementation [7][8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The effects of production capacity adjustments are expected to manifest in 10 to 12 months, while immediate price pressures can only be temporarily alleviated through storage policies [8]. - Without a substantial recovery in consumer demand, the overall weak market conditions in the pig industry are likely to persist [8].

猪价的下跌也使得二次育肥养殖户信心降低，补栏行为减少，二次育肥热度下滑。 卓创资讯数据显示，2025年样本企业出栏量流入二次育肥渠道占比下滑。截至11月20日，2025年样本企 业生猪出栏量流入二次育肥渠道占比为12.95%，较2024年6月至年底下滑6.36个百分点；其中流入二次 育肥渠道占比大于10%的时间段占总时段的54%左右，较2024年6月至年底降低16个百分点左右。2025 年猪价震荡下滑，二次育肥养殖户对后市看涨预期不高，同时较低的猪价导致二次育肥养殖户长时段亏 损，叠加政策方面禁止二次育肥，使得二次育肥热度明显降低，对猪价的托底作用减弱。 2025年生猪市场中二次育肥热度明显下降，对猪价的托底效果有所减弱。后期来看，二次育肥或因季节 性需求与部分养殖模式选择仍有存在空间，但热度难有明显回升，2026年二次育肥或较难对猪价形成托 底作用。 2025年生猪价格低位震荡后震荡下滑。截至11月20日，卓创资讯监测2025年全国瘦肉型生猪均价为 14.04元／公斤，较2024年同期下跌16.72%。理论上，2025年生猪的出栏量是由2024年3月至2025年2月 份的能繁母猪存栏量决定的，彼时养殖端正处 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 生猪：供应增量预期显现，近端期现共振下行 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（11.17-11.23） 现货市场，生猪价格弱势震荡。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 20.9 元/公斤（上周 20.9 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 11.73 元/公斤（上周 11.98 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1548 元/头（上周 1548 元/ 头）。供应端，周内集团企业顺势增量，部分散户仍有惜售情绪；需求端，周内降温刺激消费增量，南北 均有消费提振。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.74KG（上周 124.62KG），出栏均重环比 上升 0.1%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格弱势运行。本周生猪期货 LH2601 合约最高价为 11770 元/吨，最低价为 11330 元/吨，收盘价为 11350 元/吨（上周同期 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 16 日 生猪：降温刺激需求预期落地，供应压力凸显 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（11.10-11.16） 现货市场，生猪价格震荡调整。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 20.9 元/公斤（上周 20.9 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 11.98 元/公斤（上周 11.98 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1548 元/头（上周 1548 元/ 头）。供应端，周内集团企业出栏完成进度偏慢，散户仍有惜售情绪；需求端，周内消费整体稳定，虽有 降温备货预期，但整体表现较差。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.62KG（上周 124.65KG），出栏均重环比下降 0.02%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格震荡调整。本周生猪期货 LH2601 合约最高价为 12050 元/吨，最低价为 11690 元/吨，收盘价为 11775 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to be stable with a slight increase in demand, but the support for prices is weak due to the wait - and - see attitude of secondary fattening, so it will mainly fluctuate. The futures market, especially the 2601 contract, is likely to be under dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival, with a medium - to - long - term weakening trend [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 13th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing up. The highest price was 11,865 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,690 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,860 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the previous day. The total index positions decreased by 31 to 359,899 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 13th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.65 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: In the long run, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. In October, the concentrated secondary fattening and holding back of pigs increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, according to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in November was 26.66 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27% compared to the actual sales volume in October, with the daily average remaining the same. Currently, farmers are mainly selling pigs at a normal pace [7]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: With the rebound of spot prices and the high utilization rate of pigsties, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. As the weather gets colder, terminal consumer demand continues to rise, but the continuous increase is insufficient. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the slaughter rate and volume have increased slightly. Mid - to - late - month pickling and enema may increase slightly. On November 13th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 162,900 heads, a decrease of 1,200 heads from the previous day, an increase of 2,300 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 3,600 heads month - on - month [7]. 2. Industry News - As of October 30th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - fattening pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 258 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/head [8][10]. 3. Data Overview - As of October 31st, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 55.5%, a month - on - month increase of 21.2 percentage points, and the same year - on - year [15]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [15]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [15]. - In October, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [15]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [15].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - On the 12th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then fluctuated higher, closing in the positive territory. The highest price was 11,845 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,720 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,795 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,615 lots to 359,930 lots [6]. Spot Market - On the 12th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.75 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. Market Analysis - Supply side: In the long term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The concentrated second - fattening and pig holding in October increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, according to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in November was 26.66 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27% compared with the actual sales volume in October, and the daily average was flat. Currently, farmers are slaughtering at a normal pace [7]. - Demand side: With the rebound of spot prices and the high utilization rate of pigsties, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. As the weather continues to cool, terminal consumer demand continues to rise, but the continuous increase is insufficient. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises fluctuate slightly. Mid - to - late November may see a slight increase in bacon curing and sausage making. On November 12th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 164,100 heads, an increase of 17,000 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 5,000 heads [7]. - Overall: In the spot market, supply is stable and demand increases slightly, but with second - fattening in a wait - and - see state, the support for prices is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. The demand elasticity of the 2601 contract still exists, but the relatively concentrated second - fattening and pig holding in October, along with farmers' reluctance to sell and the continuous release of production capacity, may form double supply pressure before the Spring Festival, and the market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term [7]. Group 3: Industry News - As of October 30th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 258 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/head [8][10] Group 4: Data Overview - As of October 31st, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 55.5%, a month - on - month increase of 21.2 percentage points, and the same as the previous year [15]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [15]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening 110 - kg pigs to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening 125 - kg pigs to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [15]. - In October, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [15]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall spot market has stabilized, mainly influenced by sales and secondary fattening. According to Yongyi data, the average slaughter weight of national pigs in October was 128.08 kg, a decrease of 0.31 kg from September, and the overall reduction is still insufficient. Although the breeding profit and piglet profit are already in the red, the duration of the losses needs continuous monitoring. Demand remains largely unchanged before December, and the frozen product inventory is gradually rising back to normal levels. Overall, there is still pressure on pig sales from November to December, but the spot price fluctuations have gradually flattened recently due to secondary fattening. Futures prices fluctuate in tandem with the spot market, and attention should be paid to further release of production capacity in the later period [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Spot Price and Basis - On November 11, 2025, the national average pig price was 11.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg. The prices in various regions showed different degrees of decline, with the highest price in Guangdong at 12.68 yuan/kg and the lowest price in Guizhou at 11.24 yuan/kg. The basis between the spot price and LH2601 also showed different degrees of change [3] 3.2 Futures Price - On November 11, 2025, LH2601 closed at 11,755 yuan, a decrease of 200 yuan; LH2603 closed at 11,465 yuan, a decrease of 90 yuan; LH2605 closed at 12,065 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan. The spread between LH01 - 03 was 290 yuan, a decrease of 110 yuan; the spread between LH03 - 05 was -600 yuan, a decrease of 85 yuan [3] 3.3 Market Analysis - The overall spot market is stable, mainly affected by sales and secondary fattening. The average slaughter weight has decreased, but the reduction is still insufficient. Breeding and piglet profits are in the red, and the duration of losses needs to be monitored. Demand is stable before December, and frozen product inventory is rising. There is still pressure on pig sales from November to December, but spot price fluctuations have flattened. Futures prices fluctuate with the spot market, and attention should be paid to further release of production capacity [3]

Core Insights - The current pig price has shown a slight rebound, reaching just above 6 yuan/kg, but the momentum appears weak and unsustainable [2][3] - After a significant price increase in late October, the market has experienced a downturn, erasing previous gains and creating a cautious sentiment among producers [4][6] Market Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing a mixed trend with fluctuations in prices, indicating a lack of strong upward or downward movement [3][4] - The concept of "secondary fattening" (二次育肥) is highlighted as a critical factor influencing the market, as it can significantly impact supply dynamics [6][12] Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of pigs is relatively stable, with no significant reductions expected unless a major disease outbreak occurs [8] - Consumer demand for pork is limited due to the availability of alternative protein sources, such as poultry and eggs, which are currently priced lower [9] - The elongation of the consumption cycle, particularly with the upcoming late Spring Festival, is expected to dilute the demand spike typically seen during festive periods [10] Future Outlook - While there is some potential for price support due to seasonal consumption increases, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, limiting the likelihood of significant price increases [12] - The reduction in secondary fattening activities reflects a broader uncertainty about market prospects, which may lead to only narrow fluctuations in pig prices moving forward [12]