哈喽大家好，今天老张带大家聊聊投资圈居然藏着个"反向操作天花板"！管理2180亿美元的橡树资本大 佬霍华德·马克斯，用50年实战经验喊出真相：比起抓牛股赚快钱，少踩坑才是稳赢关键，这波反常识 操作，直接戳中无数跟风党的痛点！ 现在的投资者有多疯狂？AI概念一火就all in，比特币、黄金追着买，总想着"一夜翻倍"，却忘了一个 扎心事实：亏30%要赚43%才能回本，亏50%得翻倍才能填平！马克斯直接泼冷水：当下AI热潮，跟 1998-2000年互联网泡沫简直一模一样！ 决策心法 马克斯的赚钱逻辑，早在上世纪90年代就定了调。1990年明尼阿波利斯的一顿晚餐，彻底点醒了他。 通用磨坊养老金管理者大卫·范·科滕分享，自己的组合14年从没进过同行前27%，也没跌出47%，长期 却冲进所有养老金前4%。 都是能改变世界的技术，但AI的赚钱逻辑远没当年互联网清晰。说白了，"改变世界"和"让你赚钱"是两 码事，历史上郁金香泡沫、南海公司骗局，哪个不是狂热过后一地鸡毛？ 投资的反常识 再看黄金和比特币，马克斯更是直言不讳：这类资产没现金流支撑，价格全靠情绪炒。数据摆那了， 2010年底买黄金到2025年，年化才7.7%，远不 ...

其次，就估值来说，虽然AI领域存在部分估值过高情况，但2025年MSCI世界科技指数的预估本益比高 点为31倍，仅为2000年3月互联网泡沫破裂前夕的一半。第三是财务风险。至少到2026年，大多数资本 支出是由科技巨头的营运现金流量提供资金，预计2026年前五大资本支出公司的营运现金流量将达7000 亿美元，反观1990年代末网络建设时期并不存在如此庞大的利润池。 12月23日，尽管2025年经历了一些波动，但科技股仍表现强劲。台湾富兰克林投顾指出，在人工智能 (AI)投资推动下，科技、通讯服务的获利成长率约为S&P 500指数其他产业的四倍，但却使部分投资人 质疑成长动能能否延续，甚至担心AI驱动的"泡沫"将发生。富兰克林投顾分析，泡沫通常有三个特征， 即投机性需求、估值过高、过度承担财务风险，这些特征均在1990年代末期十分明显，但目前大多不存 在。 首先，在需求方面，不同于互联网泡沫时期光纤网络建置远超需求，如今的资料中心芯片(不管是最新 型或先前几代的GPU)均获充分利用。虽然芯片制造商产量创纪录，但AI公司及云端基础设施供应商仍 普遍面临严重的芯片短缺限制，因而限制了成长速度。 富兰克林投顾认为，在 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, presenting significant opportunities in the market [3] - NetEase Youdao's AI product, the "Youdao AI Answer Pen," has achieved over 100 million yuan in sales within less than a year, indicating a successful market entry and a shift towards sustainable commercialization in domestic AI hardware [5] - Alibaba's Qianwen APP has launched a new video generation model, Wanxiang 2.6, which supports character role-playing and offers features like audio-visual synchronization and multi-angle generation, marking a significant advancement in AI-driven video content creation [6] Group 2 - Investor Jim Chanos is increasing his short position on data centers, warning that both traditional and AI-focused data centers have low capital returns and high capital intensity, likening the current situation to a potential "Bubble 2.0" similar to the 2000 internet bubble [7][8] - Major tech companies, including OpenAI, Meta, and Microsoft, are advocating for legislative reforms to streamline federal approval processes for AI infrastructure and semiconductor production projects in the U.S., with a key vote on the SPEED Act expected soon [9] - Apple plans to expand its iPhone lineup to at least seven models by fall 2027, including its first foldable iPhone and a 20th-anniversary edition, aiming to cater to a broader range of consumer budgets [11] - The UK Competition and Markets Authority is investigating Google for potential anti-competitive behavior in the advertising technology sector [12] - Tesla aims to produce complete batteries at its Berlin-Brandenburg factory by 2027, with an annual production target of up to 8 GWh, supported by a nearly 1 billion euro investment to enhance supply chain resilience in Europe [13] - OpenAI is reportedly in talks with Amazon to secure at least $10 billion in funding, potentially utilizing Amazon's proprietary AI chips, which would compete with Nvidia's AI accelerators [14][15]

文 | 钱钱 编辑 | 阿景 最近AI圈热闹得有点不正常，资本和技术堆在一起，长得比小区门口的杂草还快。 你随便刷个科技新闻，不是这家融了几十亿，就是那家发布了"最强模型"，感觉整个行业都飘在天上。 但这种密密麻麻挤在一起的"灌木丛"，看着繁荣，其实特别危险一旦有点火星，很可能就是一场烧遍整 个生态的"野火"。 我为啥用"野火"这个词？一开始我想叫"泡沫破裂"，但后来发现不对。 泡沫破裂听着全是坏事，可你瞅瞅自然界，野火虽然烧得凶，过后反而会清理掉枯枝败叶，让真正有生 命力的植物扎更深的根。 AI现在这情况，可能就是需要这么一场"生态重塑"，把那些跟风凑热闹的"易燃灌木"清掉，给能长成大 树的苗子腾地方。 从互联网泡沫到AI冠层火灾，历史总是押着同样的韵脚 要说这种"野火"，互联网行业其实经历过两回。 2000年Web1.0那波，资本把钱砸向所有带".com"的公司，结果泡沫一破，90%的公司直接消失。 但你猜怎么着？地下埋的那些没用完的光纤，后来成了宝贝四年后带宽成本降了九成，才有了 YouTube、Facebook这些靠高带宽吃饭的平台。 2008年Web2.0调整也差不多。 那会儿社交网站和移动应用多如 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the growing skepticism among investors regarding AI investments, particularly in light of recent stock sell-offs of companies like Nvidia and Oracle, and the financial challenges faced by OpenAI [2][3] - There is a debate among investors about whether to reduce exposure to AI before a potential bubble bursts or to double down on investments to capitalize on the technology's disruptive potential [2] - Concerns about the high development costs of AI and whether consumers will ultimately pay for these services are critical to the future of the stock market [2] Investment Trends - The S&P 500 has seen a bull market worth $30 trillion over the past three years, primarily driven by major tech companies like Alphabet and Microsoft, as well as companies benefiting from AI infrastructure spending [2] - Major tech firms are expected to spend over $400 billion on capital expenditures in the next 12 months, largely for data centers, despite the costs outpacing revenue growth from AI [8][11] - The depreciation costs for major tech companies are rising significantly, with Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta's depreciation costs expected to reach approximately $300 billion by next year [11] Financial Challenges - OpenAI plans to spend $1.4 trillion in the coming years but is projected to burn through $115 billion by 2029 before generating cash flow [3][4] - Oracle's stock has been negatively impacted by higher-than-expected capital expenditures and underwhelming cloud sales growth, leading to increased credit risk [4][11] - Concerns about the sustainability of funding for AI initiatives are growing, with potential repercussions for companies reliant on external financing [4][8] Market Valuation - The current valuation of tech stocks, particularly those involved in AI, is not at the extreme levels seen during the internet bubble, with the Nasdaq 100's price-to-earnings ratio at 26 times expected earnings [12] - Some AI-related stocks, like Palantir and Snowflake, have extremely high valuations, while major players like Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft maintain more moderate price-to-earnings ratios below 30 [12][13] - The article suggests that while there is a risk of a market correction, the current pricing of most companies does not yet warrant panic [13]

·法兴银行：日本中性利率或小幅上移，但政策区间下限难言显著上调 ·摩根士丹利：若欧央行维持利率不变，欧元兑美元或于2026年二季度触及1.30 ·德意志银行：英国经济恐迎2023年以来首次季度环比收缩 ·瑞银资管：再通胀预期升温或引发2026年美债抛售，推动期限利差走阔 【机构分析】 ·摩根士丹利策略师称，若欧洲央行2026年维持利率不变，叠加美联储降息预期，欧元兑美元有望在第 二季度升至1.30，为2014年以来最高。即便欧央行降息50基点，欧元仍可能达1.23。 ·橡树资本联合创始人警告，当前回报环境已趋于温和，若美联储进一步大幅降息，将推高市场对"央行 兜底"的预期，诱使投资者承担过度风险以追逐高收益，这种行为"并不明智"。美联储应仅在经济严重 过热或深度衰退时干预，而当前既无恶性通胀也未陷入就业危机，不具备紧急宽松条件。他认为利 率"比当前再低很多并无意义"，政策应保持被动与审慎。 ·Quilter投资策略师指出，英国10月GDP环比萎缩0.1%，凸显经济脆弱性；叠加11月预算案缺乏有效支 持，预计未来数月增长将持续承压，与欧洲整体上调增长预期形成鲜明对比。 ·德意志银行表示，受预算不确定性、服务业萎 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cisco has reached a historical high for the first time in over 25 years, closing at a price that surpasses its previous peak during the internet bubble [1]. Group 1: Cisco's Performance - Cisco's current market capitalization is $317 billion, significantly lower than its peak market cap of $550 billion in 2000 [2]. - Investors who bought Cisco stock at the 2000 peak are finally seeing a profit, although the current valuation is much lower than it was at that time [2]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Companies - General Electric (GE) also recently surpassed its historical high, reaching $314.28 in October before stabilizing around $280 [6]. - GE's current market cap has decreased by several hundred billion dollars compared to its 2000 valuation, and the company has undergone significant restructuring and asset divestitures over the past two decades [6]. - The current GE is focused on the aerospace sector, making it difficult to directly compare with its 2000 counterpart, which was a large diversified industrial group [6]. Group 3: Historical Context - The peak of the internet bubble occurred in March 2000, with the Nasdaq index reaching its highest point [6]. - Among the top ten companies by market capitalization in the Russell 1000 index at that time, only Microsoft has maintained a strong performance, with a cumulative increase of over 700% since its peak in late 1999 [7]. - Cisco and GE are the only two companies from that era that have recently returned to their historical highs, while Intel and Nokia have not yet recovered to their 1999-2000 peak prices [7].

Core Viewpoint - Cisco Systems Inc has reached a historic high in stock price after a prolonged period of stagnation, largely attributed to the surge in spending in the artificial intelligence sector [1][18]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Context - Cisco's stock price rose by 0.9% to $80.25, marking a new high not seen in 25 years, with a total market capitalization of $317.1 billion [1][18]. - The stock's peak in March 2000 is viewed as the pinnacle of the internet bubble, and comparisons are being drawn between the current market dynamics and those of the late 1990s [1][21]. - The stock's recovery is seen as a reflection of investor confidence, despite concerns that it resembles a utility company rather than an innovative firm [11][27]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - Cisco was once the most valuable company globally during the internet boom, with a market cap exceeding $500 billion, but saw its value plummet by over 85% after the bubble burst [5][24]. - The company has since transformed and increased its stock price by over 800%, although its market cap remains more than 40% below its peak during the internet bubble [11][27]. - Comparisons are being made between Cisco and Nvidia, with some analysts suggesting that both companies are at the center of a potential AI bubble similar to the internet bubble era [3][21]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure and Future Outlook - Cisco's recent stock surge is primarily driven by strong revenue expectations, with the company poised to benefit from significant investments in AI infrastructure [12][29]. - The company anticipates sales of up to $61 billion for the fiscal year ending in July, exceeding Wall Street's expectations by approximately $1 billion [15][29]. - Former CEO John Chambers expressed optimism about AI's growth trajectory, predicting a significant increase in productivity by 2026 and dismissing concerns about an AI bubble [30][32]. Group 4: Strategic Insights and Industry Dynamics - Chambers highlighted the broad applications of AI across various sectors, including retail, automotive, and healthcare, emphasizing the rapid adoption by major companies [30][32]. - He warned that companies lacking a clear AI strategy may face severe challenges, while those with robust plans could thrive through strategic acquisitions and partnerships [32][33]. - The competitive landscape is expected to shift, with larger firms potentially facing setbacks, while mid-sized and smaller companies may encounter greater risks [32][33].

人工智能市场已达到一种狂热的程度，许多分析师将其与互联网时代相提并论。如今基础设施的赢家不 再是思科，而是英伟达(NVDA.O)，其AI芯片是模型开发的核心，并且被其他所有正在建设AI数据中心 的主要科技公司所依赖。英伟达的市值高达4.5万亿美元，大约是思科当前市值的14倍。 虽然市场低迷淘汰了许多互联网宠儿，但思科在剧变中幸存下来。它最终开始增长和扩张，通过一系列 收购实现业务多元化，例如在2006年收购机顶盒制造商Scientific-Atlanta，随后又收购了包括Webex、 AppDynamics、Duo和Splunk在内的软件公司。 随着周三的上涨，思科的市值达到3170亿美元，但这仅使其成为美国第13大最高市值的科技公司。近年 来，该股的表现远远落后于科技巨头，而这些巨头一直是围绕人工智能的新热潮的中心。 在2000年初，很少有公司像思科(CSCO.O)那样炙手可热，其网络设备是当时互联网繁荣的支柱。 周三，思科的股价首次超过了其在互联网泡沫时期的峰值。该股上涨近1%，收于80.25美元，突破了此 前于2000年3月27日创下的、经拆股调整后的历史纪录80.06美元。也正是在当年的同一天，思科超 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cisco's stock price has risen 0.9% to $80.25, surpassing the record high set on March 27, 2000, which is seen as a sign of restored investor confidence but also highlights the lengthy recovery process from the dot-com bubble [1][4][5] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Context - Cisco's stock has finally exceeded the peak reached during the internet bubble, marking a significant recovery that took over 25 years [4] - The recent stock increase is attributed to a broader market rebound following the Federal Reserve's third consecutive interest rate cut, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices also showing gains [5] - Cisco's stock has increased over 800% since its low point after the bubble burst, although its market capitalization remains over 40% lower than its peak during the internet bubble [6] Group 2: Revenue Expectations and AI Infrastructure - Cisco's recent surge is driven by strong revenue forecasts, with expected sales of up to $61 billion for the fiscal year ending in July, exceeding Wall Street expectations by approximately $1 billion [7] - The company is positioning itself to benefit from the significant investments in AI infrastructure by global enterprises, which has led to optimistic growth projections [7] - Despite the positive outlook, there are lingering doubts on Wall Street regarding the sustainability of the AI spending boom and concerns about the accounting practices related to it [8]