Core Viewpoint - The ongoing debate regarding the valuation of the AI industry is highlighted by Nvidia's strong financial report, which has positively influenced related stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong markets, indicating optimism about the industry's long-term growth potential despite concerns about capital expenditure and financing cycles [1][4]. Valuation Analysis - Current discussions around the "AI bubble" focus on the high valuations of AI companies, with comparisons drawn to the 1999 internet bubble. The S&P 500's current PE ratio stands at 22.8, above the historical average of 16.8 but below the peak of 24.1. The S&P Information Technology Index has a PE of 30.4, significantly lower than the internet bubble's peak of 58.1 [1][2]. - The relative valuation of the S&P 500 compared to Germany's DAX is at its median since 2019, indicating that U.S. stocks are not at a high valuation level. The valuation of leading stocks, such as the Magnificent Seven (Mag7), is also relatively low compared to historical averages [2]. Industry Development Stage - The AI industry is considered to be in its early stages, with the current market sentiment reflecting a "frenzy" typical of initial phases of technological revolutions. Research indicates that the AI sector is at a historical 54% percentile, akin to the early stages of the internet bubble [3]. - The current AI market is characterized by a phase of "policy expectations and preliminary validation," with significant growth in computing power and a focus on the expansion of platform and application layers in the next phase [3]. Macro Environment and Bubble Concerns - The potential for an AI bubble to burst is closely tied to macroeconomic policies. Current conditions, including sustained profitability in AI companies and a relatively loose liquidity environment, do not suggest imminent market corrections [4][5]. - A key difference from the 2000 macro environment is the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, reducing the chances of a bubble being burst through aggressive rate hikes as seen in the past [5]. - The next 2 to 3 years will be critical for validating the AI industry's value, with the potential for a "golden age" of capital in the sector following any bubble phase [5].

有两大阵营持截然相反的观点：悲观的，认为当前AI或接近2000年互联网泡沫；乐观的，认为还未到 下车的时候，可能是踏空AI者最后一次上车机会。 投资动向上，也出现明显分歧：巴菲特所在的伯克希尔三季度增仓谷歌，而软银、桥水等机构减仓英伟 达。 国内研究机构对美股AI动向也高度关注，基本共识是：美股七姐妹当前估值的确偏高，因此对利空也 较为敏感；但即便AI出现泡沫化，也仍然在早期，泡沫前最"亢奋"的阶段还未到来。 01 当前美股AI进行到哪儿了？ 国海证券认为，当前AI所处的阶段，更接近于互联网时代的1997年而非1999年。 来源：华夏ETF AI"卖铲人"英伟达最新一季业绩超预期，以一己之力重新振奋市场，但短暂的 兴奋过后，人们对AI过 热的担忧似乎没有完全打消，美股科技巨头走势分化，循环融资和隐形杠杆的疑云，仍然盘旋在市场上 空。 国海证券还引用了一组数据：2023-2025年，每年使用AI的美国员工比例从21%上升到40%，几近翻 倍。谷歌每月处理的tokens数量从2024年5月的9.7万亿，升至2025年10月的1300万亿。 复盘互联网泡沫：自1995至2000年，1998年涨幅最大，2000年达到 ...

特约评论员 吴金铎 再次，当前美股科技股的估值已经非常接近互联网泡沫时期。标普500席勒市盈率10月30日时已攀升至 40.95倍，而历史上最高值出现在互联网泡沫时期，即1999年12月时为44.19倍。当前科技股估值接近互 联网泡沫时期，值得市场提高警惕。 当前，市场正担忧美股人工智能（AI）领域的非理性繁荣。8月以来，美股科技股回调，加上AI龙头股 英伟达市值大增，以及美国AI领域实际应用价值的质疑，叠加美联储12月降息预期回调等多重因素， 近期对AI泡沫的担忧甚嚣尘上。 首先，2025年6月一份由几位复杂科学家撰写的论文，对大语言模型性能提升曲线提出质疑，引发了对 相当长时间内持续吸金的美国AI领域的应用价值能否兑现，以及AI未来前景的巨大担忧。 其次，2025年美股前10大市值的公司，已有8家是AI相关科技公司，AI集中度远高于互联网泡沫时期。 当前美股前10大市值的公司分别为：英伟达、苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊、博通、Meta、特斯拉、伯 克希尔哈撒韦、摩根大通（时间截至10月30日）。而在1999年末，美股市值前10大的公司分别为：微 软、通用电气、思科、沃尔玛、英特尔、诺基亚、辉瑞制药、艾克森美孚 ...

此外，一些重仓科技股的资金也在兑现浮盈。如2025年10月软银出售3210万股英伟达，套现58.3亿美 元，资金用于向OpenAI追加225亿美元投资。不过这也并不代表软银看空AI领域。此外2008年次贷危机 中"大空头"的标志性人物迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）已开始做空英伟达等AI龙头，加大了市场对AI 泡沫的担忧。 再次，当前美股科技股的估值已经非常接近互联网泡沫时期。标普500席勒市盈率10月30日时已攀升至 40.95倍，而历史上最高值出现在互联网泡沫时期，即1999年12月时为44.19倍。当前科技股估值接近互 联网泡沫时期，值得市场提高警惕。 当前，市场正担忧美股人工智能（AI）领域的非理性繁荣。8月以来，美股科技股回调，加上AI龙头股 英伟达市值大增，以及美国AI领域实际应用价值的质疑，叠加美联储12月降息预期回调等多重因素， 近期对AI泡沫的担忧甚嚣尘上。 首先，2025年6月一份由几位复杂科学家撰写的论文，对大语言模型性能提升曲线提出质疑，引发了对 相当长时间内持续吸金的美国AI领域的应用价值能否兑现，以及AI未来前景的巨大担忧。 其次，2025年美股前10大市值的公司，已有8 ...

一水 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 这边Gemini 3刚引发"新纪元"的惊呼，谷歌CEO皮猜反倒出来"泼冷水"了。 在接受BBC最新采访时，谷歌CEO皮猜原地化身"大漏勺"（doge）。 而且表达出的一些观点也是出人意料…… 怎么个出人意料？ 这无疑体现在他对"AI泡沫"的最新表态上，正当Gemini 3 Pro掀起全网热议之时，他却忧心直言： 别的不说，人们对AI的巨大关注、硅谷对AI的疯狂投资可谓摆在明面上了。 正如BBC报道中所提到的那样： 科技巨头们正加大对AI的投入，争相从AI热潮中获利，这场热潮已将股票推至历史新高。 几家巨头最新公布的财报为上述说法提供了佐证—— 万亿美元AI投资热潮确实存在"非理性因素"，（一旦）泡沫破裂将无人幸免。 而面对这份"实诚"，网友们也是意外+调侃不停： | Tianyi @ @its tianyi · 10h | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | rare to see a CEO this candid abt bubble risks. most woudl just hype up the | | | | ...

11月18日，受到日韩等周边股市以及大宗商品、加密货币等风险资产全线走弱拖累，今日三大指数再度陷入弱势探底行情，个股超4100只飘绿，而跌停家数 也大幅增至30余家。沪深两市成交额1.93万亿，截至收盘，沪指跌0.81%，深成指跌0.92%，创业板指跌1.16%。 跌破6725点! 失守50日均线! 华尔街:美股技7 原创 环球市场情报 2025-11-18 15:27 星期二 财联社 黄君芝 原创 环球市场情报 2025-11-18 10:24 星期二 财联社 潇湘 ①标普500指数周一是139个交易日以来首次收于50日移动平均线下方，打破了本世纪以来维! 势线上方第二长的纪录; ②当天另一个关键数字则是被高盛誉为多空分水岭的6725点，标普500指数周一的收盘位667. 点位低出了逾50点。 "互联网泡沫"为鉴, 沃顿商学院教授直指AI繁 "我认为人工智能最大的风险不在于它是否可行，我认为它一定可行，但它可以更低成本地实现。"( 西格尔将当前的人工智能繁荣与互联网泡沫时期进行了比较,认为那个时代最重要的启示是,成7 沫最终破裂的主要原因之一。 而隔夜的市场无疑再度出现了这一幕。周一股市回调之际,亚马逊正计 ...

Thiel从不是跟风的"墙头草"——互联网泡沫前提前离场，后押中比特币、特斯拉，每次都踩对趋势拐 点。这次清仓英伟达，绝非脑热，而是"蓄谋已久"。 他在闭门会上说得直白：现在的AI，像极了1999年互联网泡沫顶峰。投资者盯着"未来蓝图"，却没人 算"现在能不能赚钱"——为遥远的技术故事付了太高溢价，实际收益根本跟不上。 11月初，美股三季度13F持仓报告一出，投资圈直接炸锅。 这话戳中了要害：英伟达股价去年翻数倍，估值早透支了部分增长。对Thiel这种"赚确定性钱"的价值 派来说，止盈离场不是看空AI，而是"落袋为安"的老江湖操作。 PeterThiel，这位靠押注科技趋势封神的大佬，居然清仓了英伟达。 要知道，英伟达曾是他持仓的"压舱石"（53.77万股，占比40%），如今一股不剩；美股总持仓更从2.12 亿美元砍至7440万美元，换手率超80%，近乎"大换血"。散户群瞬间慌了："连Thiel都跑了，AI要 凉？" 紧接着，贝佐斯称AI热像"工业泡沫"，高盛CEO提示未来12-24个月可能回调。偏偏11月20日凌晨，英 伟达Q3财报将发布——这场"AI定调之战"，把市场神经绷到了极致。 但你要是真信"AI要 ...

| 2502 | | | | 2503 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票代码 持股数量(百万股) 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 持仓市值(百万美元) | | 股票名称 | 持股数量(百万股) | 持仓市值(百万美元) 特股变动 | | | TSLA TSLA | 特斯拉 | 0.27 | 86.60 | | 特斯拉 | 0.07 | 28.91 | -76% | | NVDA MSFT | 英伟达 | 0.54 | 84.96 | | 微软 | 0.05 | 25.38 | 新建仓 | | VST | Vistra Energy | 0.21 | 40.46 com | AARL . go 苹果 ta | | .com 0.08 | 20.16 | 新建仓 | | 清仓 NVDA、VST | | | | | | | | | | 和至25年9日30日,整体结合却填为744M (上季度212M, gog-64 9%) | | | | | | | | | 11月初，美股三季度13F持仓报告一出，投资圈直接炸 ...

Core Insights - Peter Thiel's Thiel Macro fund liquidated all Nvidia holdings, signaling a potential end to the AI hype as Nvidia's market cap surpassed $500 billion and analysts raised target prices to $300 [1][3] - Thiel's actions reflect a broader skepticism among tech leaders, with Jeff Bezos calling the AI trend a "perfect industrial bubble" and predictions of a 10% market correction within 12-24 months [3] - Despite Nvidia's impressive quarterly sales of $46.7 billion and a 56% growth in data center business, Thiel warns of a significant gap between market enthusiasm and real economic value, reminiscent of the 1999 internet bubble [3][4] Investment Strategy - Following the liquidation, Thiel's portfolio shrank from $212 million to $74.4 million, retaining only three stocks: a 76% reduction in Tesla, and new positions in Microsoft and Apple [3][4] - Microsoft and Apple are seen as safer investments due to their diversified revenue streams, unlike pure AI chip companies, allowing them to thrive amid AI transformations [3][4] - Apple's vast ecosystem of 2.3 billion devices positions it as a "safe haven" benefiting from AI trends without the burden of heavy computational infrastructure [4] Market Reflection - The portfolio adjustments indicate a collective reconsideration of the monetization path for AI, as tech giants invest heavily in computational infrastructure [4][6] - Microsoft’s Azure cloud services and Apple's "physical AI" vision exemplify a "slow-burning" transformation, showcasing resilience amid market volatility [6] - The shift in investment strategy suggests that smart capital is now seeking stable havens that can engage with future trends without the pressure of immediate returns [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-offs by prominent investors, including Peter Thiel, signal a cautious stance towards the AI market, despite its current strong performance [2][12]. Group 1: Thiel's Investment Actions - Thiel Macro LLC completely exited its investment in Nvidia during Q3, a notable move as Nvidia's market cap surpassed $5 trillion [3][4]. - The fund's total holdings shrank dramatically from approximately $212 million to $74.4 million, indicating a strategic reduction rather than a mild rebalancing [5][10]. - Thiel sold all 537,700 shares of Nvidia, which constituted 40% of his previous portfolio, and also divested from Vistra Energy, which accounted for 19% [4][5]. Group 2: Shift in Investment Focus - The fund established new positions in Microsoft and Apple, buying 49,000 shares of Microsoft and 79,181 shares of Apple [6][7]. - Tesla remains the largest holding at approximately 38.8% of the portfolio, despite a significant reduction of 76% in its shares [8]. - The shift indicates a preference for companies with diversified revenue streams and robust cloud and software services, contrasting with high-valuation chip manufacturers [9][13]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Comparisons - Thiel has previously warned that the AI hype cycle is outpacing its actual economic benefits, likening it to the 1999 internet bubble [12]. - Other notable figures, such as Jeff Bezos and David Solomon, have echoed concerns about a potential AI bubble and market corrections [14].