Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry or currency discussed. Core Viewpoints - The report argues that the Renminbi (RMB) is unlikely to follow the path of the Japanese Yen from 1985 to 1995, primarily due to ongoing deflationary pressures and the need for a loose monetary policy [5][6][19]. Summary by Sections Historical Comparison - The report draws parallels between the RMB and the Yen, noting that while the Yen appreciated significantly (211% against the USD from 1985 to 1995), the RMB is not expected to follow this trend due to complex trade relations and domestic economic conditions [5][6][27]. Trade Tensions - It is emphasized that merely allowing the RMB to appreciate will not resolve the intricate issues in US-China trade relations, which include national security concerns and the need for structural changes in both economies [8][9][12]. Economic Challenges - The report highlights that a significant appreciation of the RMB could exacerbate existing deflationary challenges in China, weakening corporate profits and leading to reduced overall demand [20][21][19]. Structural Rebalancing - The report argues that currency appreciation alone will not facilitate the necessary structural rebalancing of the Chinese economy from an investment-driven model to a consumption-driven one [35][39]. Policy Implications - The report suggests that policymakers are likely to prefer managing currency depreciation rather than allowing significant appreciation, especially in light of ongoing economic challenges [19][36].

2025.07. 03 本文字数：2791，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 周艾琳 随着7月9日关税"大限"的临近，英国已成功达成协议,美国总统特朗普最新称美越达成贸易协议，其 他国家则正在进程之中。 尽管谈判仍存在不确定性，但弱美元的结构性趋势并不受阻碍。一方面，美国财政部长贝森特认为美 联储可能在9月或"更早"降息，关键在于关税并未引发通胀；另一方面，随着欧洲财政刺激措施祭 出，欧元的多头头寸处于高位。同时，全球机构将资金从美元资产向其他资产分散的行动仍在延续。 受此影响，人民币对美元持续升值。有外资行交易员提及，近期人民币对美元中间价并未出现被大幅 调弱，以缓冲升值的明显迹象。原先机构预计中间价很难升破7.17，但7月3日已升至7.1523。不乏 机构认为，在美元对离岸人民币一度触及7.15关口之后，7.1可能只是时间问题。高盛对美元/人民 币的年终目标为7；巴克莱认为，若美元对人民币继续跌至7.1~7.15区间（逼近7），出口商持有 7000亿美元存款中最多将有1000亿美元可能被兑换。 就加拿大（4月3日关税水平为10%）而言，加美谈判曾因数字税争议陷入僵局，但在6月底加拿大 撤回该措施后 ...

Group 1: Currency Trends and Impacts - The potential for the USD/CNY exchange rate to fall within the 7.1 to 7.15 range may lead exporters to convert more USD deposits back to RMB, with estimates suggesting that up to $100 billion of the $700 billion held by exporters could be exchanged [1][16] - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD has been notable, with the central parity rate reaching 7.1523 on July 3, indicating a significant upward trend [1][13] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing structural weakness of the USD, influenced by potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and European fiscal stimulus measures, is contributing to the RMB's strength [1][8] Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - The U.S. has announced a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods, while Vietnam has proposed zero tariffs on U.S. products, indicating a complex trade relationship that could impact both economies [3] - The EU and U.S. negotiations are tense, with no substantial progress on the proposed 20% "reciprocal" tariffs, and the automotive sector remains a core point of contention [4] - Canada and the U.S. are working towards a trade agreement, with key issues including steel tariffs and automotive duties still unresolved [4][5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - The U.S. stock market has shown resilience, reaching new highs despite ongoing trade uncertainties, attributed to the belief that extreme government actions are limited by economic fundamentals [7] - The global supply chain's stability is emphasized, with concerns that disruptions could lead to inflation and economic pressures, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations [7] - The Euro has strengthened significantly against the USD, with a nearly 10% appreciation noted, reflecting broader market trends and currency dynamics [8][10]

Group 1 - The World Bank has adjusted the definition of high-income economies, lowering the minimum threshold for Gross National Income (GNI) per capita from $14,005 to $13,935, allowing more countries to qualify as high-income economies [1] - China's nominal GDP for 2025 is projected to reach 31,875.8 billion RMB, approximately $4,442.05 billion, with a per capita GDP of $13,445, which is about $500 short of the new high-income threshold [1] - The small gap of approximately $500 translates to about 9.5 RMB per person per day for China's 1.4 billion population, indicating a minimal effort required to reach the high-income status [1] Group 2 - If China successfully enters the high-income economy category, it will become the largest high-income economy globally, significantly increasing the proportion of high-income individuals worldwide [2] - China's achievement will allow it to become a rule-maker in the industrial revolution, as seen with German car manufacturers adapting to Chinese standards in vehicle networking [4] - China's development model offers new insights for many developing countries, exemplified by Zambian farmers benefiting from smart agriculture initiatives in Chongqing, showcasing China's advancements in agricultural modernization [6] Group 3 - China's rise to high-income status will create new opportunities and challenges, necessitating continued reforms and openness to achieve a more prosperous and democratic developed economy [8]

Core Viewpoint - China's nominal GDP for 2025 is projected to be approximately 31.88 trillion RMB, equivalent to about 4.44 trillion USD, with a per capita GDP of 13,445 USD, placing it just 500 USD away from the World Bank's high-income threshold of 13,935 USD [3][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The World Bank has lowered the minimum GNI standard for high-income economies from 14,005 USD to 13,935 USD, making China's transition to high-income status more attainable [3][6]. - The current gap of 500 USD translates to a daily value creation of approximately 9.5 RMB per person across China's 1.4 billion population [4][6]. - A 3.7% appreciation of the RMB against the USD would allow China to naturally surpass the 13,935 USD threshold without any economic growth [6][9]. Group 2: Global Economic Impact - If China crosses the high-income threshold, it will become the largest high-income economy by population, significantly increasing the global high-income population from about 1.32 billion to over 2.7 billion, raising the percentage of high-income individuals globally from approximately 16% to 35% [6][9]. - This transition will reshape the global economic and industrial landscape, positioning China as a rule-maker in the industrial revolution rather than a follower [7][9]. - China's development model will provide a new path for many developing countries, demonstrating that high income does not equate to Westernization, and showcasing diverse modernization pathways [9][10]. Group 3: Future Aspirations - The next goal for China, after achieving high-income status, will be to become a prosperous, strong, and democratic developed economy, marking a significant milestone in its economic journey [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing power struggle between the White House and the Federal Reserve, particularly focusing on President Trump's dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the potential candidates for his successor, which could significantly impact interest rate expectations and U.S. Treasury yields [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump is reportedly considering announcing Powell's successor by September or October, with potential candidates including Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent, and Christopher Waller [1][3]. - Warsh is seen as a candidate with a hawkish stance, advocating for monetary policy independence and prioritizing balance sheet reduction [5]. - Bessent is viewed as a dovish candidate, favoring close coordination between monetary and fiscal policy, which could lead to a more accommodative interest rate path [5]. - Waller, a recent appointee by Trump, has expressed a desire for immediate rate cuts, indicating a more aggressive approach to monetary policy [5]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The market currently assigns a 76% probability to a Fed rate cut in September, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar index to its lowest level since March 2022 [3]. - Analysts expect the Fed may cut rates 1 to 2 times this year, depending on inflation and employment data, with a terminal rate projected around 3% [8]. - The current federal funds rate is in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, indicating a potential for further easing [8]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yields - Short to medium-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline, with a preference for 5-year bonds due to favorable risk-reward ratios [6][8]. - The outlook for 30-year bonds is less optimistic, as high U.S. debt levels may keep long-term yields elevated [8]. - The Treasury is anticipated to issue more short to medium-term bonds to meet market demand, reflecting a shift in investor interest [8]. Group 4: China and Currency Dynamics - The Chinese bond market is expected to remain stable, with 5-year and 10-year government bond yields reported at 1.475% and 1.65%, respectively [10]. - The future of the China-U.S. interest rate differential will largely depend on developments in the U.S. [10]. - Analysts predict a gradual appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its forecasts for the yuan's exchange rate to 7.1, 7, and 6.9 over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively [11].

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair by President Trump is expected to significantly influence interest rate cut expectations and U.S. Treasury yields [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Candidates - President Trump is considering three main candidates for the Federal Reserve chair: Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent, and Christopher Waller [1][2]. - Warsh is seen as a hawkish candidate who advocates for monetary policy independence and prioritizes balance sheet reduction [2][3]. - Bessent is recognized for his coordination skills during chaotic tariff policies and has a dovish stance, favoring close alignment between monetary and fiscal policies [3]. - Waller, a recent appointee by Trump, has expressed a desire for immediate rate cuts and emphasizes data-driven decision-making [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The market currently implies a 76% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar index [2]. - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve may cut rates 1 to 2 times this year, depending on inflation and employment data [4][5]. - The terminal rate is anticipated to be around 3%, with the current federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% [5]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yields - Short to medium-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline, with a preference for 5 to 10-year maturities over 30-year bonds [1][4][5]. - The market is currently experiencing a sell-off in Treasuries, but analysts remain optimistic about future yield declines [5]. - The demand for 30-year bonds may decrease due to high U.S. debt levels, leading to more issuance of shorter-term bonds by the Treasury [5]. Group 4: China-U.S. Interest Rate Differential - The future changes in the China-U.S. interest rate differential are likely to depend more on developments in the U.S. [6]. - Chinese government bond yields are expected to remain stable, with the People's Bank of China maintaining a flexible approach to monetary policy [6]. - Analysts suggest that the Chinese yuan may continue to appreciate against the U.S. dollar, supported by strong export performance and an undervalued exchange rate [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since November 2024, with the central parity rate reported at 7.1586 yuan per dollar on June 30, 2025, an increase of 41 basis points from the previous trading day [1][3]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of June 30, 2025, both onshore and offshore yuan appreciated, with onshore yuan at 7.1652 (up 0.10%) and offshore yuan at 7.1629 (up 0.14%) [3]. - In June 2025, the yuan continued its upward trend from May, with onshore and offshore rates fluctuating between 7.17 and 7.18, indicating a gradual appreciation [3]. - For the first half of 2025, the onshore yuan appreciated by 1.84%, the offshore yuan by 2.37%, and the central parity rate by 298 basis points [3]. Factors Influencing Yuan Strength - The weakening US dollar index, domestic economic fundamentals, and flexible monetary policy from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) have contributed to the resilience of the yuan [3][4]. - The US dollar index has been on a downward trend, reaching a low of 96.9712 on June 30, 2025, marking a 2.26% decline for the month and a 10.41% decline for the year [4]. Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The PBOC aims to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations, maintaining the yuan at a reasonable and balanced level [5]. - Future yuan exchange rate movements will be influenced by domestic consumption policies and the progress of US-China trade negotiations, with expectations of continued moderate appreciation in a weak dollar environment [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has caused significant regret among dollar holders, as the offshore RMB exchange rate has surged to a new high since November of the previous year, reaching 7.16 [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - The RMB's strong performance is attributed to multiple factors, including the nearing end of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, which has diminished the dollar's attractiveness [5]. - China's economy has shown robust resilience, with favorable foreign trade data and a significant increase in trade surplus, leading to strong demand for currency exchange [5]. - Continuous inflow of foreign capital into the A-share market has further supported the RMB, as foreign investors convert dollars to RMB for investment [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The People's Bank of China's subtle policy adjustments have effectively guided market sentiment, with the central parity rate of the RMB being raised multiple times, signaling stability [3]. - Market reactions have been swift, with the onshore and offshore RMB rates showing a narrowing price gap, indicating strong buying interest [3]. - Most institutions predict that the RMB will maintain its strength in the second half of the year, with a trading range expected between 7.1 and 7.2, although unforeseen events could lead to volatility [9]. Group 3: Impacts of RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB benefits outbound travelers and online shoppers, as they can save significantly on expenses when converting currency [8]. - Conversely, export-oriented companies face pressure as clients demand lower prices, leading to reduced profit margins [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent guidance by the central bank to allow the appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by the weakening of the US dollar index and the improving macroeconomic conditions in China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Central Bank's Actions - Since May, the central bank has gradually relaxed the fluctuation range of the USD/RMB exchange rate, lowering the middle rate to guide the RMB's appreciation. From May 9 to June 24, the USD/RMB middle rate decreased from 7.2095 to 7.1656, resulting in a cumulative appreciation of 439 pips for the RMB [1]. - The onshore RMB has appreciated nearly 700 pips, while the offshore RMB has appreciated about 650 pips during the same period [1]. Group 2: Reasons for RMB Appreciation - The central bank's guidance for RMB appreciation is largely due to the continuous weakening of the US dollar index, which has been influenced by the deteriorating fiscal situation of the US government and declining market confidence in the dollar [2]. - A recent Bank of America global fund manager survey indicated that the proportion of fund managers bearish on the dollar is nearing a 20-year high, suggesting that a weak dollar is becoming a consensus in macro trading this year [2]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The central bank's tolerance for RMB appreciation has increased, as macro policies in China have remained stable, and asset prices have begun to recover. The international trade situation has improved, allowing the central bank to gradually guide the RMB's appreciation [3]. - With the enhancement of Chinese enterprises' international competitiveness and the continuous introduction of growth-stabilizing policies, the attractiveness of Chinese assets is expected to increase, making further RMB appreciation likely [3].