Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) has appreciated against the US dollar, reaching a midpoint of 7.0918, the highest since October 15, 2024, indicating a strong signal of stability in the currency market [1][3]. Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB midpoint has been adjusted upwards by 966 basis points this year, reflecting a trend of moderate appreciation [1]. - Since late August, the RMB has shown a rapid appreciation against the USD, driven by optimistic sentiment and increased foreign capital inflow [7]. Factors Supporting RMB Appreciation - Multiple factors are expected to support a moderate appreciation of the RMB, including the recent announcement of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools to boost growth, which enhances market confidence [5]. - The internationalization of the RMB is progressing well, with recent bilateral currency swap agreements signed with several central banks, providing liquidity support [5]. - The RMB's share in global payments reached 3.17% in September, maintaining above 2.9% for three consecutive months, indicating increased international usage [5]. Economic Context - The RMB's appreciation is supported by improvements in the Chinese economy, easing real estate and local debt issues, and a positive outlook from the IMF regarding China's growth [6]. - The US dollar index has decreased by 9.5% in the first nine months of the year, benefiting non-USD currencies, including the RMB [6]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts predict that the RMB will continue to appreciate, with expectations of reaching 7.0 against the USD by the end of 2025 and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026, contingent on stable export conditions [9]. - The upcoming fourth quarter is typically a peak period for export enterprises to settle foreign exchange, which could lead to a positive feedback loop of appreciation [9]. Policy and Market Stability - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate, emphasizing the importance of market forces in determining the currency's value [7]. - The PBOC has sufficient policy tools to manage exchange rate expectations and will adjust its approach based on domestic economic changes [9].

报告日期：2025 年 10 月 23 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：外汇市场保持着较强的韧性和活力 9 月我国外汇市场平稳运行，主要呈现两个特点：一是跨境资金流动保持活跃、 均衡态势；二是外汇市场供求较为平衡。今年前三季度我国涉外收支总规模为 11.6 万亿美元，创历史同期新高。跨境资金净流入 1197 亿美元，银行结售汇顺 差 632 亿美元，均高于上年同期水平。总的来看，面对复杂多变的外部环境，今 年以来我国外汇市场稳健运行，市场预期平稳，供求基本平衡，外汇市场保持着 较强的韧性和活力。国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收涨 1.65%报 449.1 元/ 桶。贵金属方面，沪金收跌 1.56%报 934.72 元/克，沪银涨 0.04%报 11331 元/ 千克。 重点品种： 贵金属、原油、股指 原油：SC 夜盘上涨 1.65%。特朗普在上周与普京通话后，宣布两国元首近期将在 匈牙利首都布达佩斯会晤。特朗普 21 日在白宫椭圆形办公室告诉记者，与普京 的原定会面计划被搁置。欧盟轮值主席国丹麦宣布，欧盟各成员国已批准对俄实 施第 19 轮制裁，制裁措施包括禁止进口俄液化天然气等。美国能源信息署数据 显示， ...

中国企业正以五年来最快速度卖出美元。 国家外汇管理局10月22日公布的数据显示，9月份银行结售汇顺差达510亿美元，创2020年12月以来最大规模。这反映出在人民币 升值预期增强背景下，市场主体外汇结汇意愿显著上升。 外汇局副局长、新闻发言人李斌表示，9月份我国外汇市场供求较为平衡，银行代客结汇和售汇环比均明显增长。其中上中旬净结 汇较多，下旬结售汇差额趋向均衡。10月份以来银行代客结汇和售汇大体相当，外汇市场供求基本平衡。 分析指出，这一数据显示出市场对人民币的乐观情绪正在上升。9月份离岸人民币触及去年11月以来最强水平，出口企业加速结汇 可能为人民币提供进一步支撑。 结售汇顺差创近五年新高 国家外汇管理公布的数据显示，按美元计值，2025年9月份，银行结汇2647亿美元，售汇2136亿美元，形成510亿美元的结售汇顺 差。这是自2020年12月以来的最大单月顺差规模。 2025年1月份至9月份，银行累计结汇18533亿美元，累计售汇17901亿美元，累计顺差达632亿美元，高于上年同期水平。 数据还显示，按美元计值，2025年9月份，银行代客涉外收入6812亿美元，对外付款6843亿美元。2025年1月份 ...

Core Viewpoint - In September 2025, China's foreign exchange market showed a significant increase in both bank settlement and sales, with a surplus of 510 billion USD, indicating a robust and balanced foreign exchange environment [1][3][4]. Group 1: Bank Settlement and Sales Data - In September 2025, banks settled 18,809 billion RMB (approximately 2,647 billion USD) and sold 15,183 billion RMB (approximately 2,136 billion USD), resulting in a settlement surplus of 3,626 billion RMB (approximately 510 billion USD) [1]. - From January to September 2025, banks cumulatively settled 185,330 million USD and sold 179,010 million USD [1][2]. - The bank's foreign-related income in September was 48,409 billion RMB, while foreign payments were 48,629 billion RMB [1]. Group 2: Cross-Border Fund Flows - In September, the total cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors reached 1.37 trillion USD, reflecting a 7% month-on-month increase [3]. - The net outflow of cross-border funds was 31 billion USD in September, which has since turned into a net inflow in October [3]. - The total scale of foreign-related income and expenditure for the first three quarters of the year reached 11.6 trillion USD, marking a historical high for the same period [3]. Group 3: Trade and Investment Trends - In September, China's total import and export value was 4.04 trillion RMB, with exports growing by 8.4% and imports by 7.5% year-on-year [4]. - The A-share market saw a total trading volume of 6.8 trillion RMB in September, indicating a significant increase and setting a new high [4]. - Experts predict that the upcoming peak in corporate financial settlements and profit distributions will likely lead to an increase in bank settlement volumes, potentially supporting the appreciation of the RMB [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable, with a balanced supply and demand situation, despite potential complexities from seasonal factors and policy adjustments [5]. - The shift from an export-driven economy to one focused on domestic demand may lead to a decrease in the contribution of trade surpluses to settlement and sales [5]. - The dual characteristics of cross-border investment are becoming more pronounced due to further financial market opening, which will complicate the dynamics of bank settlement and sales [5].

Economic Overview - The domestic economic fundamentals are showing positive signs, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, indicating a stable and progressive economic operation [1] - The external environment is also improving, as trade tensions have eased following a video call between the economic leaders of China and the U.S., agreeing to a new round of consultations [1] Capital Flows - Southbound capital continues to favor the Hong Kong stock market, with a net inflow of 450.89 billion HKD last week, marking a five-week high; the cumulative net inflow this year has surpassed 1.1 trillion HKD, reflecting strong confidence from mainland investors [1] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that with the backdrop of RMB appreciation and strengthened expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, a "catch-up" rally in Hong Kong stocks is anticipated [1] - The technology sector in Hong Kong, identified as a core asset for AI, is highlighted as having significant investment value, according to Huafu Securities [1] - Despite recent volatility, the upward industrial cycle and influx of new capital are expected to support a bullish market trend for Hong Kong stocks in the fourth quarter, with technology remaining a key focus [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector is experiencing a significant rally, with major airlines seeing substantial stock price increases due to improved operational metrics and favorable market conditions [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong aviation stocks rose collectively, with China Eastern Airlines up over 10%, China Southern Airlines up over 7%, and Air China up over 5% [1][3]. - The overall aviation sector in the Hong Kong market saw a 3.5% increase, with notable gains in A-shares as well [3][4]. Group 2: Operational Metrics - The Civil Aviation Administration of China reported a reduction in domestic flight slots for the upcoming winter-spring season, with decreases of 1.0% and 1.8% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [6]. - Domestic average ticket prices increased by 5.9%, and the average passenger load factor rose to 87.9%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [6]. Group 3: Industry Drivers - The recent price hikes by global shipping giants are attributed to a combination of factors, including reduced port capacity in Europe and North America, adjustments in the Red Sea and African routes, and global manufacturing restocking [6]. - The recovery in business travel demand has led to improved revenue levels, with domestic ticket prices turning positive, increasing by 3.0% compared to a decline of 6.5% in the previous months [8]. Group 4: Currency Impact - The appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar, reaching a new high in over 11 months, is expected to benefit the aviation sector, supported by expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and stable domestic economic policies [9].

Core Points - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all declined in the week of October 17, with the CFETS index at 97.08, down 0.24% week-on-week, the BIS index at 103.07, down 0.36%, and the SDR index at 91.49, down 0.40% [1][2] Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index weakened overall last week, closing at 98.55, down 0.27% for the week. This weakness supported non-USD currencies, with the euro, pound, and yen all appreciating against the dollar [5] - The RMB against the USD middle rate was reported at 7.0949, with a weekly increase of 186 basis points. The onshore RMB closed at 7.1277, up 83 basis points, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1269, down 37 basis points [5] - Year-to-date, the RMB middle rate has appreciated over 900 points, with the onshore and offshore RMB appreciating 2.40% and over 2.8% respectively [5] Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - Analysts attribute the recent RMB appreciation to both internal and external factors. External factors include the impact of the US government shutdown on economic data, increasing uncertainty in financial markets, and accelerated capital flow from the US to non-USD countries [6] - Internal factors include the release of consumer potential, industrial structure upgrades, and continuous optimization of market competition, which provide fundamental support for the RMB exchange rate [6] - The core driver of RMB appreciation is the easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which influences the RMB through direct effects on the dollar's exchange rate and interest rates [6] Economic Indicators - In September, the consumer market remained stable, with the CPI rising 0.1% month-on-month and falling 0.3% year-on-year. The core CPI rose 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion [8] - China's foreign trade continued to show a steady upward trend, with total goods trade value reaching 33.61 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 4% [8] - The broad money supply (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan at the end of September, growing 8.4% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, with a midpoint exchange rate of 7.0968, is seen as beneficial for consumers, particularly for those engaging in overseas purchases and travel, while it poses challenges for export-oriented businesses [1][4]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The yuan's appreciation is attributed to stable economic performance in China, strong export data, and increased foreign investment, alongside a weakening US dollar due to uncertain Federal Reserve policies and fluctuating US Treasury yields [1][4]. - The onshore and offshore exchange rates reflect different liquidity conditions, with the onshore rate at 7.1238 and the offshore rate at 7.1298, indicating slight discrepancies influenced by global market expectations [1]. Impact on Consumers - The appreciation of the yuan allows consumers to save money on international travel and purchases, with examples showing significant savings on expenses like flights and accommodations [2][4]. - For students studying abroad, the lower exchange rate reduces the financial burden on families sending remittances for tuition and living expenses [4]. Challenges for Exporters - Export businesses face difficulties as the stronger yuan means they receive less in local currency when converting foreign earnings, which may impact their competitiveness [4]. - Individuals holding US dollar savings may find it less advantageous to convert to yuan at this time, although the long-term outlook suggests the yuan's appreciation may enhance its value retention [4]. Practical Tips for Consumers - Consumers are encouraged to monitor exchange rates regularly and utilize various platforms for currency exchange to maximize savings [5]. - Strategies such as splitting currency exchanges and using international payment apps can help mitigate risks associated with fluctuating exchange rates [5]. Long-term Outlook - The medium-term forecast suggests the yuan will remain stable within the range of 7.0 to 7.2, contingent on global economic recovery and domestic policy stability, while potential US interest rate hikes could lead to a rebound in the dollar [7]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism regarding the yuan's performance, with recommendations for consumers to balance their currency holdings to manage risks effectively [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market continues to rebound, with the Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) rising over 0.6% and experiencing a net inflow of over 700 million yuan for 10 consecutive trading days [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which includes leading technology stocks in sectors such as the internet, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - The index has outperformed the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index over the long term, with a cumulative increase of 65.26% since 2018, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index has decreased by 0.80% and the Hang Seng Technology Index has increased by 9.67% during the same period [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - Huafu Securities expresses optimism about the Hong Kong stock market's "catch-up" trend, particularly in the context of the appreciation of the renminbi and strengthened expectations for US interest rate cuts, highlighting the focus on Hong Kong technology stocks that concentrate on AI core assets [1]

Group 1 - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD has shown a strong "stability" signal, with the rate reported at 7.0995 on October 15, marking an increase of 26 points and the first time above 7.10 since late October last year [1] - The onshore RMB opened at 7.1270, rising over 140 points, while the offshore RMB saw a daily increase of approximately 200 points, indicating an appreciation trend [1] - Experts suggest that the recovery of the RMB against the USD and the new high since October 21, 2024, reflects a focus on "stabilizing the exchange rate" as a current policy priority [1] Group 2 - The growth rate of foreign exchange deposits in domestic financial institutions has surpassed the threshold of 6% to 10%, indicating that the RMB has entered an appreciation cycle [2] - The current appreciation cycle of the RMB is primarily driven by the weakening of the USD due to the Federal Reserve's easing policies, with expectations of continued RMB appreciation until mid-next year [2] - Analysts predict that the RMB will continue to appreciate against the USD amid increasing global political uncertainties and the potential for funds to flow from the US to non-US countries [2]