Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock Operation" rating for the cotton textile industry [3] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, after the September 3rd Victory Day parade in China, the stock market dropped. The August PMI manufacturing index rebounded but remained below 50%. Enterprise profits turned positive. Next week, the CF2601 contract is expected to oscillate or start a rebound test in the range of [13920 - 14255]. In the medium - term, new cotton will be on the market after September 20th. The expected purchase price of ginned cotton mills is 6 - 6.3 yuan/ton. Pre - sales of new cotton have increased significantly. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October", there is a possibility of price support or rebound, but high inventories of grey cloth and yarn limit the rebound height. In the long - term, after new cotton is on the market, prices may first rise and then fall, and next year the market is expected to be shock - strong due to the expected interest rate cuts [6] - For cotton yarn, this week, Zhengzhou cotton prices adjusted, and the cotton yarn market also followed. The trading volume of pure cotton yarn is average, and low - count yarns perform better. Inland spinning enterprises are still in cash - flow losses and lack confidence in the future. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October", prices are expected to strengthen [8] Summaries by Directory 01. Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton - Short - term: After the parade, the stock market fell. The PMI index rebounded but was below 50%. Next week, expect oscillations or a rebound test in the [13920 - 14255] range for CF2601 [6] - Medium - term: New cotton will be on the market after September 20th. Pre - sales have increased. The "Golden September and Silver October" may support prices, but high inventories limit the rebound [6] - Long - term: New cotton prices may first rise and then fall. Next year, the market may be shock - strong due to expected interest rate cuts [6] 02. Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton Yarn - This week, Zhengzhou cotton prices adjusted, and the cotton yarn market followed. Low - count yarns perform better. Inland spinning enterprises are in losses. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October", prices may strengthen [8] 03. Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton is still weak. Macro - risk aversion is strong. Cotton merchants' inventories are low, and some old cotton remains unsold. Spinning enterprises purchase raw materials on a need - basis. New cotton production is expected to increase slightly, bringing long - term pressure. The trading volume of pure cotton yarn is average, and low - count yarns perform better. Inland spinning enterprises are in cash - flow losses [12] 04. International Macro - US economic data shows that in September 2025, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, ADP employment decreased, exports increased, imports increased, and the trade deficit widened. Eurozone data shows that the unemployment rate decreased, CPI increased, and PPI increased [13] 05. Domestic Macro - Upcoming domestic economic data to be released includes foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2 money supply, social financing scale, and new RMB loans [15] 06. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's August report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume decreased month - on - month, and the ending inventory decreased. In the 2024/25 season, production decreased, consumption increased, exports decreased, and the ending inventory decreased again [17] 07. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, the total supply decreased due to a decrease in imports. The total demand increased due to an increase in cotton consumption. The ending inventory decreased by 120,000 tons. In the 2025/26 season, the total supply decreased slightly, the total demand remained stable, and the ending inventory decreased by 100,000 tons [22] 08. US Cotton Exports - As of August 14, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed 755,000 tons of cotton exports for the 2025/26 season, with a signing rate of 28.88% and a shipment rate of 8.49%. China had signed 3,000 tons and shipped 181 tons [25] 09. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - At the end of July, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 22.62% from the previous month and 21.18% from the same period last year. As of August 15, the commercial inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 16.88% from the end of July. Industrial inventories also changed accordingly [28] 10. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports - In July 2025, China's cotton imports were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, cumulative imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. Cotton yarn imports in July were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [31] 11. Cotton Yarn Production and Sales - In August, the cotton yarn market improved, especially in the second half of the month. The profit of spinning enterprises improved, but the operating rate did not increase significantly. The estimated production of pure cotton yarn in August was 424,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.3% [35] 12. US Cotton Growth - As of August 31, the boll - setting rate of US cotton was 90%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 28%, 7 points slower than last year and 2 points slower than the average. The excellent - good rate was 51%, 7 points higher than last year and 8 points higher than the average [38] 13. US Cotton Weather - As of September 2, the drought index in the US cotton - growing areas increased, but most cotton had completed boll - setting and entered the flocculation stage, so the impact on growth was limited [42] 14. Xinjiang Cotton Growth - As of September 1, the average flocculation rate in Xinjiang was 27.7%, an increase of 12.4 percentage points. Some cotton fields have started spraying defoliants, and new cotton is expected to be on the market 10 - 15 days earlier than usual [44] 15. Textile Industry Inventory - In July, the inventory of the textile industry increased by 0.12% month - on - month and 0.49% year - on - year. The finished - product inventory of the textile industry decreased by 0.03% month - on - month and increased by 1.31% year - on - year. Textile and clothing inventories changed accordingly [45] 16. Domestic Demand - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 96.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [50] 17. External Demand - In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06%. From January to July, cumulative exports were 170.741 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.63% [53] 18. US Clothing Retail - In June 2025, the retail sales of US clothing and accessories were 26.342 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 3.88% and a month - on - month increase of 0.94% [56] 19. US Cotton Product Imports - In June 2025, US cotton product imports were 1.357 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.47% and a month - on - month increase of 5.32%. Textile and clothing imports also changed [60] 20. Warehouse Receipts - As of September 4, the number of warehouse receipts was 5,829, a decrease of 167 from the previous week [62] 21. Non - Commercial Positions - As of August 26, the net long positions of non - commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market decreased by 2,829 to - 40,128. The net long positions of non - commercial futures alone decreased by 2,501 to - 37,606. The net long positions of commodity index funds decreased by 513 to 59,842 [66] 22. Textile Factory Load - As of September 5, the load index of pure cotton yarn mills was 64.5, unchanged from the previous week; the load of rayon yarn mills was 50, unchanged; the load of pure polyester yarn mills was 54.5, an increase of 0.1 from the previous week [70] 23. Weaving Factory Load - The load index of all - cotton grey cloth mills increased by 0.3 to 46.5, the load index of rayon cloth mills increased by 1.0 to 55.5, and the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth mills increased by 0.2 to 49.3 [74] 24. Industry Chain Inventory - Textile enterprises' cotton inventory decreased by 0.7 days to 29.7 days, cotton yarn inventory decreased by 0.4 days to 28.1 days, and all - cotton grey cloth inventory decreased by 0.9 days to 33.5 days [78] 25. Industry Chain Profits - This week, Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated after a rebound. The cotton yarn market improved slightly, but the price increase was limited. Inland spinning enterprises for C32S were still in losses of about 500 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang enterprises still had a small profit [83] 26. Basis - This week, the basis weakened significantly with the rebound of futures prices. The current inland basis is 1,033 yuan/ton, a decrease of 505 yuan/ton from the previous week. The new cotton pre - sale basis is 800 - 1000 yuan/ton [86] 27. Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Spread - Currently, the domestic cotton market is stronger than the foreign market. After October, if China increases foreign cotton imports or conducts state reserves sales, the situation may change [89] 28. Inter - Month Spread - The 9 - 11 spread weakened to - 300 yuan/ton, approaching the target. The 11 - 1 spread first weakened to - 230 yuan/ton and then strengthened to - 125 yuan/ton. A strategy of shorting 11 and going long 1 is recommended [92]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Fats and Oils Industry - Palm oil futures are expected to return to 4500 ringgit, and the domestic palm oil futures may gradually rise after the adjustment, with a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. US soybean oil has a downward space in the short term, while domestic soybean oil may see a decrease in inventory and a rise in the spot basis in the future [1]. Corn Industry - The short - term corn futures are in a rebound and consolidation stage, and the medium - term situation remains weak. It is advisable to consider shorting on rallies [2]. Sugar Industry - The international raw sugar is expected to consolidate in the 15 - 17 cents/pound range. The domestic sugar price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate narrowly around 5500 - 5700 [7]. Cotton Industry - The cotton price center has risen, but there is no obvious upward driving force. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 13500 - 14500 yuan/ton [8]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is stabilizing with slight fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of the 11 and 01 contracts [9]. Meal Industry - The domestic meal prices have limited downward space. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long at low levels in the 3000 - 3050 range [11]. Egg Industry - Egg prices may rebound in early September, but the overall increase is limited, maintaining a bearish view [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils Industry - **Price Changes**: On August 29, Y2601 decreased by 0.52%, and the palm oil futures price also showed certain fluctuations. The price of soybean oil and palm oil in the spot market also changed to different degrees [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production growth is lower than export growth, and the market expects limited inventory growth at the end of August. The US biodiesel policy for soybean oil is unclear, and the domestic demand for soybean oil is improving [1]. Corn Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of corn 2511 increased by 0.27%, and the price of corn starch 2511 increased by 0.32%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Northeast corn traders have insufficient inventory, but there is supplementary auction grain. Spring corn in North China is gradually on the market, and the new - season corn has a large expected increase in production. The demand side has relatively sufficient inventory and weak purchasing enthusiasm [2]. Sugar Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.04%, and the price of ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.97%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, but the Brazilian sugar production may be revised down. The 09 contract is affected by beet warehouse receipts, and the demand side is relatively stable during the double festivals [7]. Cotton Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of cotton 2509 increased by 0.73%, and the price of cotton 2601 increased by 1.21%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of new cotton is yet to be verified, the inventory is relatively tight before the new cotton is on the market, the demand has improved marginally since August, but the downstream improvement is not obvious [8]. Pig Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of live pigs 2511 decreased by 0.26%, and the price of live pigs 2601 decreased by 0.50%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of pigs is stabilizing, the slaughter volume has increased, and the market demand is expected to improve with the approach of the school season and cooler weather, but there may be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the double festivals [9]. Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of soybean meal M2601 increased by 0.53%, and the price of rapeseed meal RM2601 increased by 1.21%. The spot prices, spreads, and crushing margins also changed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, the Sino - US negotiation has no substantial progress, and the domestic supply concern has eased [11]. Egg Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of egg 09 contract increased by 0.28%, and the price of egg 10 contract increased by 0.31%. The spot prices, spreads, and related indicators also changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in September may decrease, and the demand will weaken after the Mid - Autumn Festival [15].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. The commodity market has mixed price movements, and the stock market experiences a significant decline on August 27. The economic situation is influenced by multiple factors, including global events, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries [4][18]. - In the commodity market, some products like natural rubber and asphalt have price increases, while others such as glass and styrene have price drops. In the stock market, A - share indexes fall sharply, with most industry sectors in the red [4][18]. - For different commodities, specific supply - demand factors affect their prices. For example, in the agricultural products sector, the supply pressure of sugar is increasing, while the demand for some products like eggs is expected to drive a slight price increase [12]. - In the stock market, although the short - term adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index may slow down the rising pace, it is considered beneficial in the long - term. The market may need a significant shock to digest floating profit chips, and investors are advised to take advantage of low - buying opportunities [20][21]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Chemical Industry - **Price Changes**: On August 28, 2025, compared with August 27, natural rubber rose by 0.508% to 15,840.00, 20 - number rubber rose by 0.396% to 12,665.00, and asphalt rose by 0.605% to 3,492.00. While plastics, polypropylene PP, PTA, etc., had price drops, with PVC having the largest decline of 0.606% to 4,919.00 [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - **International Events**: The 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1; the 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services will be held in Beijing from September 10 to 14 [7]. - **Economic Data**: In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months; the new kinetic energy index of China's economic development in 2024 increased by 14.2% year - on - year [7]. - **Policy Announcements**: Jilin Province will implement the tax - refund policy for overseas tourists' shopping from September 1, 2025; the Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month [7][8]. - **Industry Data**: From August 1 - 24, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 72.7 million units, a 6% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase; the global economic and trade friction index in June was 92, showing a缓和 trend [8]. - **Market Forecast**: Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to intensify, with an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, and the global oil inventory to increase by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026 [9]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The sugar price shows a downward trend. The supply pressure is high, and the operation suggestion is to sell short on rallies, paying attention to the support level of 5600 yuan [12]. - **Corn**: The corn price is in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure is increasing, and the strategy is to maintain a bearish view, focusing on the support level of 2150 yuan [12]. - **Pig**: The national pig price is weakly falling. The supply - demand game continues, and the futures market is bearish [12]. - **Egg**: The egg price is expected to rise slightly, mainly driven by demand. The futures market suggests short - selling on rebounds and reverse spreads between months [12]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures are falling. The fundamentals have no major changes. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips in the short - term [14]. 3.3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply is affected by enterprise maintenance, and the demand is weak. The price is in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the support level of 1720 - 1730 yuan/ton and the Indian tender on September 2 [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: As the peak consumption season approaches, the caustic soda 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, and a bullish approach on dips is recommended [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The downstream inquiry is not significantly improved, and the supply is affected by safety inspections. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: For copper, due to market uncertainties, a bullish approach is recommended if the price breaks through the oscillation range. For aluminum, the price is expected to remain high as domestic consumption improves and inventory is at a low level [16]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market shows a north - south differentiation. The 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, and attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite [16]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel market has a wait - and - see atmosphere. The short - term fundamentals change little, and the steel price decline space is limited. Attention should be paid to actual production cuts and macro - sentiment changes [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is under pressure. The short - term is in a wide - range oscillation, and industrial hedging and speculation should be cautious [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price breaks through the support level. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then try to go long lightly, paying attention to the support level of 78000 yuan [18]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On August 27, A - share indexes fall sharply. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options change, and the implied volatility decreases for some options. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can trade according to the index trend [18]. - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index adjusts, and other indexes are likely to follow. The market may need a shock to digest floating profit chips. Investors are advised to take advantage of low - buying opportunities [20][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillating trend. Although chemical demand is strong, the weak combustion demand restricts upward movement. International LPG prices are weak, and factors such as increased warehouse receipts and regional differences also affect the market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data and Changes - From July 25 to July 31, 2025, the price of South China LPG decreased from 4500 to 4440 (-40), East China LPG remained at 4413, Shandong LPG decreased from 4630 to 4540 (-40), propane CFR South China increased from 549 to 550 (+5), propane CIF Japan increased from 514 to 555 (+28), MB propane spot decreased from 71 to 73 (-1), CP forecast contract price increased from 522 to 530 (+7), Shandong ether - after carbon four decreased from 4900 to 4910 (-20), Shandong alkylated oil decreased from 7980 to 7970 (-30), paper import profit decreased from -33 to -120 (-82), and the main basis increased from 453 to 437 (+9) [1] 2. Market Conditions on Thursday - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4413. FEI oscillated, CP slightly declined, and the official CP prices for August were announced, with propane/butane at 520/490 respectively. PP prices dropped, and the production profits of FEI and CP for PP slightly weakened, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI. The PG futures weakened, the monthly spread slightly weakened, and the 09 - 10 spread was -438 (-13). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed [1] 3. PG Market Conditions - The PG futures oscillated. International LPG prices were weak, and the significant increase in warehouse receipts suppressed the futures. Domestic chemical demand increased, but weak combustion demand restricted upward movement. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4413 yuan/ton. The basis weakened to 370 (-63). The inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen. The warehouse receipt registration volume was 9804 lots (+1000), with 1000 lots added by Qingdao Yunda. The overseas prices continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio weakened. In terms of regional spreads, PG - CP reached 43 (+18), FEI - MB reached 155 (-6), FEI - CP reached 4.5 (+4.5); the US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1] 4. Weekly View - The FEI propane discount continued to decline, and the CP landed discount oscillated. The change in FEI - MOPJ was small, with the latest at -47.5 (-3.75). PDH profits improved, and MTBE export profits declined. The arrival volume decreased significantly, with ships in South China delayed due to typhoons, and port inventories decreased. Factory inventories slightly increased. The commodity volume decreased by 0.53%. Chemical demand was strong; the PDH operating rate increased significantly to 73.13% (+2.01 pct) as Zhenhua Petrochemical and Hebei Haiwei gradually increased their loads. Next week, Liaoning Jinfa plans to resume operation; the alkylation operating rate increased, and Henan Chengxin's alkylation unit has a restart plan; the MTBE operating load increased, with manufacturers focusing on exports, and the overall operation was stable. Weak combustion demand restricted upward movement [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillatory trend. International LPG prices are weak, and the increase in domestic chemical demand is offset by the low combustion demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price Data - On July 29, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil were 4480, 4413, 4413, 4600, and 550 respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, 0, - 20, and 1 respectively [1] 3.2 Market Conditions - The PG futures market is oscillating. The international LPG price is weak, and the significant increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The domestic chemical demand is increasing, but the low combustion demand restricts the upward movement. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4413 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Spread and Arbitrage - The basis has weakened to 370 (- 63). The inter - month reverse spread continues to strengthen. The 08 - 09 spread is 2, and the 08 - 10 spread is - 398. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed [1] 3.4 Production Profit - FEI and CP have risen, PP has risen significantly, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP has deteriorated. The CP production cost is lower than that of FEI. PDH profit has improved, and MTBE export profit has declined [1] 3.5 Inventory and Supply - The arrival volume has decreased significantly. Due to typhoons, ships in South China are delayed, and port inventories have decreased. Factory inventories have slightly increased. The commodity volume has decreased by 0.53% [1] 3.6 Demand - Chemical demand is strong. PDH operating rate has increased significantly to 73.13% (+ 2.01 pct). Alkylation operating rate has increased, and MTBE operating load has risen [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 29, polysilicon prices stopped falling and rebounded. The main 2509 contract closed at 50,805 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.76%. The N-type recycled polysilicon material price rose to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also reached 46,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 4,245 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a strong oscillation. The main 2509 contract closed at 9,350 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.35%. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,570 yuan/ton, down 277 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 255 yuan/ton. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology re - emphasized consolidating the comprehensive governance results against excessive competition, highlighting the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics to force out backward production capacity through standard improvement. Polysilicon was boosted by the news and regained momentum. Industrial silicon was driven up by polysilicon and showed a strong performance. Currently, policies still support the market, but after the pre - speculative demand was realized, market sentiment cooled down, and there is insufficient momentum to reach new highs. After the exchange adjusted margins and handling fees, heavy - position chasing and killing should be avoided. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse spread space and PS/SI ratio arbitrage, as well as the resumption of production in the southwest region and policy progress [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,085 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 8,995 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions declined. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 20 yuan to 255 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 31 to 50,082, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 3,415 tons to 248,550 tons. Other port and factory inventories remained stable [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 50,805 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 1,340 yuan/ton to 50,745 yuan/ton. All spot prices increased, with the N - type granular silicon material rising by 10,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose by 2,000 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 660 yuan to 4,245 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 50 to 3,070, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.7 tons to 9.06 tons. The factory and social inventories remained unchanged [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained at 12,500 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: Data on silicon wafers and battery cells were not available. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades and regions, as well as the prices of silicon stone, refined coal, and electricity [5][7][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][16]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [19][22]. 3.2.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC and polysilicon [25][27][31]. 4. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media [33]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [33]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillating trend. International LPG prices are weak, with a significant increase in warehouse receipts suppressing the market. Although domestic chemical demand is increasing, weak combustion demand restricts upward movement [1]. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Market Data - On Monday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4413 yuan/ton. FEI and CP prices dropped, PP prices declined sharply, and the production profit of FEI and CP for PP worsened, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI. The PG market weakened, with the 08 - 09 spread at - 7 and the 08 - 10 spread at - 411. The US - to - Far East arbitrage window closed [1]. - The PG market oscillated. The basis weakened to 370 (-63), and the inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen. Warehouse receipt registrations reached 9804 lots (+1000), with Qingdao Yunda adding 1000 lots. External market prices continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio declined [1]. Regional and Spread Data - In terms of regional spreads, PG - CP reached 43 (+18), FEI - MB was 155 (-6), FEI - CP was 4.5 (+4.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window closed. FEI propane discount continued to fall, and the CP arrival discount oscillated. FEI - MOPJ changed little, at - 47.5 (-3.75) [1]. Profit and Demand Data - PDH profit improved, while MTBE export profit declined. The arrival volume decreased significantly. Chemical demand was strong; PDH operating rate increased significantly to 73.13% (+2.01 pct), and next week, Liaoning Jinfa plans to resume operation. Alkylation operating rate increased, and Henan Chengxin's alkylation unit has a restart plan. MTBE operating load increased, with manufacturers focusing on exports and overall stable operation. Combustion demand was weak [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - For palm oil, there is potential for the crude palm oil futures to break through previous highs, but beware of the risk of price pull - back around the MPOB report. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise in the short - term. For soybean oil, the US Senate's fiscal expenditure bill may boost consumption and support prices in the long - term, while the domestic soybean oil basis decline is limited due to import cost support [1]. Sugar - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a small rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply surplus limits the rebound height. The domestic market may maintain a bullish sentiment in the short - term, but a bearish view is held after the rebound considering future imports [3]. Eggs - The national egg supply is sufficient, demand is general, and downstream procurement is cautious. Egg prices are expected to be stable first, then decline slightly in the short - term, and remain stable later [7]. Cotton - The short - term supply shortage of old - crop cotton is difficult to resolve, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, so cotton prices are likely to fluctuate within a range [10]. Meal - US soybeans are rebounding, and Brazilian soybean prices are rising. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are increasing, and the basis is stable. The soybean meal market is currently bottom - grinding, and attention should be paid to the 2950 support level [12]. Corn - The spot price of corn is firm, but the futures price has declined due to import auctions. In the medium - term, the supply shortage and increasing consumption may support price increases. Short - term operations are recommended [14]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly. The market sentiment may be bullish in the short - term, but there is pressure on the 09 contract above 14,500 [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, soybean oil spot price was 8260, futures price (Y2509) was 8018; palm oil spot price (Guangdong 24 - degree) was 8460, futures price (P2509) was 8440; rapeseed oil spot price (Jiangsu fourth - grade) was 9730, futures price (OI509) was 9618 [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of soybean oil (Y2509) was 242, down 26; the basis of palm oil (P2509) was 20, down 74; the basis of rapeseed oil (OI509) was 111, down 42. The soybean oil 09 - 01 spread was 44, up 2; the palm oil 09 - 01 spread was - 10, up 14; the rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread was 32.65% [1]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of sugar 2601 was 5580, down 16; the price of sugar 2509 was 5766, down 9. The spot price in Nanning was 6070, down 20 [3]. - **Industry Data**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 152.10 million tons [3]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of the egg 09 contract was 3678, down 6; the price of the egg 08 contract was 3544, down 24. The egg产区 price was 2.60, unchanged [7]. - **Industry Data**: The price of day - old chicks was 4.00, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 4.62, up 0.18; the egg - feed ratio was 2.24, down 0.09; the breeding profit was - 33.26, down 5.38 [7]. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of cotton 2509 was 13805, up 60; the price of cotton 2601 was 13820, up 65. The ICE US cotton主力 price was 67.96, down 0.08 [10]. - **Industry Data**: The commercial inventory was 312.69 million tons, down 33.18 million tons; the industrial inventory was 93.01 million tons, down 1.10 million tons [10]. Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of soybean meal (Jiangsu) was 2840, unchanged; the price of soybean meal futures (M2509) was 2944, down 17. The price of rapeseed meal (Jiangsu) was 2470, down 20; the price of rapeseed meal futures (RM2509) was 2578, down 8 [12]. - **Industry Data**: The Brazilian 8 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was - 16, down 14.4%; the Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 107, unchanged [12]. Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of corn 2509 was 2363, down 20; the price of corn starch 2509 was 2731, down 12 [14]. - **Industry Data**: The import profit of corn was 579, down 1; the import profit of corn starch was - 100, down 5 [14]. Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of the pig 2511 contract was 13550, up 160; the price of the pig 2509 contract was 14340, up 475. The spot price in Henan was 15100, up 50 [18]. - **Industry Data**: The daily sample slaughter volume was 136895, down 1775; the weekly white - strip price was 20.43, up 0.1 [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil may briefly surge upward after oscillating and consolidating, while Dalian palm oil futures may briefly dip to 8,200 yuan. For soybeans, the USDA quarterly report has limited impact on CBOT soybeans, and the market expects ample supply and future high yields, but the report may show a decrease in US soybean oil inventory at the end of May. Domestically, the demand for soybean oil is weak, inventories are increasing, and the decline in spot basis quotes is limited [1]. Corn - The overall bullish trend of corn remains unchanged, but the pace is slow. In the short - term, the spot price is generally stable, with the price in the Northeast remaining firm and that in North China showing local declines. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap supports the upward movement of corn prices. Attention should be paid to the wheat market and policy information [3]. Meal - Supported by US soybean oil, US soybeans strengthened last night. The USDA's new planting area report had a neutral impact. The technical support for US soybeans has increased, and the market is showing signs of stabilization. In China, the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal are rising, the basis is stable, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. There are opportunities to buy at low points [6]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of pigs has not escaped the oscillating pattern. The short - term sentiment may be strong, but the 09 contract is under pressure due to the postponed inventory of live pigs [8][9]. Sugar - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a slight rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply is becoming more abundant, limiting the rebound. The domestic market may maintain a bullish sentiment for some time, but considering future imports, the market is expected to turn bearish after the rebound [12]. Cotton - The contradiction of tight old - crop inventory in the upstream supply cannot be resolved in the short term, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, and the demand is sluggish. Cotton prices are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [13]. Eggs - The supply of eggs in China is sufficient, the demand is average, and downstream procurement is cautious. Egg prices are expected to be stable first, then decline slightly in the short term, and remain stable later [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan on July 1, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 7,972 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis was 268 yuan, up 4.69%. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 20,582 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan on July 1, up 0.36%. The futures price of P2509 was 8,336 yuan, up 0.07%. The basis was 94 yuan, up 34.29%. The import cost was 8,719.3 yuan, and the import profit was - 383 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,630 yuan on July 1, up 0.52%. The futures price of OI2509 was 9,477 yuan, up 0.66%. The basis was - 12 yuan, down 7.27% [1]. Corn - **Corn**: The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port was 2,383 yuan, up 0.21%. The 9 - 1 spread was 103 yuan, up 0.98%. The import profit was 580 yuan, up 3.52%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 182.87% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2509 was 2,743 yuan, up 0.37%. The basis was - 23 yuan, down 76.92%. The 9 - 1 spread was 65 yuan, up 8.33% [3]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,840 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2,961 yuan, unchanged. The basis was - 121 yuan, unchanged. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans in August was 111 yuan, up 3.7% [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan, up 0.81%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,586 yuan, up 0.54%. The basis was - 96 yuan, up 5.88%. The import crushing profit for Canadian rapeseed in November was 107 yuan, down 47.03% [6]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract price was 11,850 yuan, up 9.72%. The price of the 2507 contract was 13,935 yuan, up 0.61%, and that of the 2509 contract was 13,865 yuan, down 0.04%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 70 yuan, down 450% [8]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in various regions increased, with the price in Henan at 15,050 yuan, up 100 yuan; in Shandong at 15,250 yuan, up 150 yuan; etc. [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,596 yuan, down 0.57%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan, down 0.55%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 15.70 cents per pound, down 3.03% [12]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6,090 yuan, up 0.16%. The import cost of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 4,334 yuan, down 1.90% [12]. - **Industry**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and the sales increased by 23.07% [12]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan, up 0.04%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13,755 yuan, down 0.04%. The price of ICE US cotton was 67.96 cents per pound, down 0.12% [13]. - **Spot**: The arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,187 yuan, up 0.46%. The CC Index 3128B was 15,212 yuan, up 0.38% [13]. - **Industry**: The inventory in the north decreased by 9.6% month - on - month, and the industrial inventory decreased by 1.2% [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3,684 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.14%. The price of the 08 contract was 3,568 yuan per 500 kg, up 0.06% [14]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the production area was 2.60 yuan per catty, down 1.43%. The base price was - 964 yuan per 500 kg, down 4.31% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, the supply shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia persists, and prices remain stable with strong cost support. However, the oversupply of refined nickel remains unchanged. It is expected to experience a weak oscillation in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, despite steel mill production cuts, overall demand is sluggish, leading to inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On June 9, 2025, the main contract 2507 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,280 yuan/ton and closed at 122,710 yuan/ton, a 0.47% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 115,890 lots, and the open interest was 76,246 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose rapidly in the night session, then oscillated and fell back to near the previous day's closing price. In the day session, it oscillated up to near the night - session high and then slightly declined, closing with a medium - sized positive candle. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The shipping efficiency of the Surigao mining area in the Philippines has recovered well. Iron plants have implemented production cuts due to losses, weakening the demand for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply shortage in the Sulawesi nickel mining area persists due to rainfall. The domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, with a premium of +26 - 28, and the overall price was basically flat month - on - month [2][3][4]. - China's estimated refined nickel output in June is 37,345 tons, a 3.75% increase month - on - month. In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel increased by about 500 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the quotations of mainstream brands decreased. The refined nickel spot trading was average, with the oversupply situation remaining unchanged but strong cost support at the bottom [2]. - The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,192 (35.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 199,092 (- 1,014) tons [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Range - bound operation. - Mid - to long - term: Sell on rallies for hedging. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On June 9, 2025, the main contract 2507 of stainless steel opened at 12,715 yuan/ton and closed at 12,655 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,364 lots, and the open interest was 146,067 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated and fell to the previous low after a slight consolidation in the night session. In the day session, it dropped rapidly to a new low and then rebounded slightly, closing with a medium - sized negative candle. The trading volume and open interest increased compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Similar to the nickel situation, the shipping efficiency of the Surigao mining area in the Philippines has recovered well. Iron plants have cut production due to losses, weakening the demand for nickel ore. The nickel ore supply shortage in the Sulawesi nickel mining area in Indonesia persists due to rainfall [3][4]. - The domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, with a premium of +26 - 28, and the overall price was basically flat month - on - month. The high - nickel iron price is 950 - 960 yuan/nickel, and some Indonesian iron plants have switched to high - grade nickel matte production [4]. - In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures price dropped slightly. The price limit of Tsingshan 304 hot - and cold - rolled products was lowered by 100 yuan, and traders' cold - rolled prices followed suit. The market had rigid demand for purchases, and the trading of low - price resources was average. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 13,050 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 465 - 665 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 949.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Short - term: Neutral. - Mid - to long - term: Sell on rallies for hedging. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4].