Group 1: Energy Storage - The demand logic for energy storage is being reshaped, with a global ceiling opening up due to policy shifts from being driven by regulations to being driven by value, leading to high growth in future demand [4][10] - In China, new energy storage installations reached 34.9GW/89.3GWh from January to October 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 90%/91% [11] - The profitability model for energy storage is improving, with the internal rate of return (IRR) for a hypothetical independent storage project in Gansu estimated at 8.5% for total investment and 14.8% for equity [20][21] Group 2: Wind Power - The domestic wind power market is expected to see stable growth, with offshore wind power projections indicating a doubling of annual new installations compared to the previous five-year plan [6] - The price of domestic onshore wind turbines has shown a clear upward trend since late 2024, with profitability expected to recover significantly by 2026 [6] - The gearbox market for wind power is projected to have a market space exceeding 40 billion, with a focus on leading companies in the industry chain [6] Group 3: International Markets - In the U.S., energy storage installations increased by 11.3GW/34.3GWh from January to October 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11%/24% [23] - The European market is experiencing a surge in energy storage demand, with the UK and Germany showing significant increases in planned and installed capacities [37][32] - Emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East and India, are seeing substantial growth in energy storage projects driven by favorable policies and abundant solar resources [42][48] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch in the energy storage integration sector include Haibo Shichuang, Sungrow Power, and Canadian Solar, which are expected to benefit first from the demand surge [6][52] - In the PCS (Power Conversion System) segment, independent third-party companies like Sangfor Electric, Shenghong Co., and Kehua Data are recommended due to their favorable market positioning [56][57] - For temperature control solutions in energy storage, companies like InvoTech and Tongfei Co. are highlighted as leaders benefiting from the evolving market dynamics [61][64]

人民财讯12月10日电，中金公司（601995）研报称，容量电价政策带来短期抢装潮，看好中长期储能需 求增长。中金公司认为短期内优质节点资源紧缺，在各省容量电价出台的预期下，社会资本纷纷入场， 独立储能有望在政策窗口期迎来抢装期。初步测算由发电侧电费下降可支持的2026—2027年独立储能理 论装机空间约为158GW/634GWh。中长期看，自2027年起，随着电力市场建设的逐渐完善，新能源装 机规模不断提升，新型储能装机将由被动式的政策刺激转向内生性的需求，新增需求主要来自发电侧主 动配储和负荷侧多场景应用。随着风光等波动能源的发电量占比进一步提升，预计"十五五"期间储能的 商业化配置需求总量在1.5TWh—1.7TWh(含抽水蓄能)，复合增速20%以上。 ...

电力设备 2025 年 12 月 08 日 光伏拐点已现，储能大势所趋 ——行业投资策略 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究报告 《动储需求旺盛，产业链供需拐点已 至—锂电行业 2026 年度投资策略》 -2025.12.1 《欧洲电动车销量月报（2025 年 10 月）：法国社会租赁计划落地后 BEV 销量同比明显提速—行业点评报告》 -2025.11.24 《低空经济行业周报（第四十一期）： 进博会上多项低空经济订单签约，时 的科技总部落户上海—行业周报》 -2025.11.9 殷晟路（分析师） 周航（联系人） yinshenglu@kysec.cn zhouhang1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050020 光伏拐点已现：反内卷持续推进，关注底部反转 当前光伏行业反内卷已取得一定积极成效，Q3 主链上游环节预计显著减亏。后 续重点关注供需两条主线： （1）供给侧：硅料收储平台落地及产业链限产措施。 （2）需求侧：关注"十五五"光伏装机 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a significant increase in investment enthusiasm for energy storage, with planned investment projects in Inner Mongolia's eastern and western regions expected to more than double compared to this year [1] - The capacity compensation policy is expected to be sustainable, supporting the ongoing demand for energy storage driven by high load growth and the continuous development of renewable energy [1] - Currently, battery components are identified as a tight link in the supply chain, with various lithium battery materials showing potential for continued price increases [1] Industry Summary - Energy storage investment is projected to see substantial growth, particularly in Inner Mongolia, with planned projects more than doubling year-on-year [1] - The demand for energy storage is confirmed by high growth rates in load and the ongoing development of renewable energy sources [1] - Key materials such as cathodes, anodes, electrolytes, separators, copper and aluminum foils, as well as additives like 6F and VC are expected to experience price increases, indicating a positive outlook for the battery and integration sectors [1] - The AIDC (Automated Intelligent Data Center) with energy storage is anticipated to provide certainty for high growth in overseas markets [1]

Company Insights - Haibo Sichuang (688411.SH) is the leading player in the domestic energy storage market, with significant breakthroughs in overseas markets [6] - The company signed an agreement with LEAG Clean Energy to develop a large-scale energy storage project in Germany, with a capacity of 1.6GWh, positioning itself among Europe's major battery storage facilities [6] - According to S&P Global, Haibo Sichuang ranks among the top three global battery storage system integrators in 2023, with second place in power scale and third in energy scale [6] - The company aims to match its domestic market scale in overseas markets within 3-5 years through a dual strategy of "technology output + localized operations" [6] - Haibo Sichuang has secured a battery supply of no less than 200GWh through a strategic cooperation agreement with CATL for the years 2026-2035 [6] Industry Insights - The global energy storage capacity is expected to exceed 270GW by 2030, with an annual compound growth rate of over 40%, driven by the increasing generation of renewable energy [6] - In China, the new energy storage installation scale is projected to surpass 130GW by 2025 under ideal scenarios, with a compound growth rate of 20.2%-24.5% from 2024 to 2030 [6] - The HR+/HER2- breast cancer segment, which accounts for 70% of all breast cancer cases, is seeing advancements in post-line treatments, with TROP2 ADC and HER3 ADC showing promising efficacy [7][8] - Recent clinical trials indicate that TROP2 ADC has superior progression-free survival (PFS) compared to traditional chemotherapy in HR+/HER2- breast cancer patients [7] - The HER3 ADC and KAT6 inhibitors are also demonstrating significant efficacy in clinical trials for HR+/HER2- breast cancer, indicating a broadening of treatment options in this area [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has surged significantly in November, breaking the important threshold of 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a shift in market dynamics and demand-supply narratives [1][2][9]. Group 1: Price Movement - Lithium carbonate prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of 102,500 yuan/ton on November 20, 2023, after starting at 78,060 yuan/ton on November 5, marking a substantial increase [2][3]. - The main futures contract for lithium carbonate, LC2601, saw a remarkable increase of 19.26% in November, making it the top performer in the commodity market [1][2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The demand for lithium carbonate is primarily driven by the energy storage and power battery sectors, with expectations that global lithium demand will reach 2 million tons by 2026 [1][3]. - The recent surge in demand is attributed to the rapid growth in renewable energy integration and electric vehicle production, with predictions of a 30% increase in lithium demand by 2026 [3][4]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Supply-side constraints are emerging, particularly in major lithium production areas like Jiangxi, where environmental regulations and power supply issues have reduced operational rates to around 55% [8][9]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased significantly, with registered warehouse receipts dropping from 42,400 contracts in early October to 27,100 contracts by November 26, indicating tightening supply conditions [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Speculation - Market sentiment has been bolstered by optimistic forecasts from leading companies in the lithium sector, contributing to increased trading activity and speculation in the futures market [4][5]. - The trading volume for lithium carbonate futures reached a record high of 25.06 million contracts in November, reflecting heightened market activity and investor interest [4]. Group 5: Future Price Projections - Analysts suggest that while prices could potentially reach 150,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton under extreme conditions, such scenarios depend on various factors including supply disruptions and unexpected demand surges [10][11]. - A more balanced scenario predicts a slight oversupply in 2025, with average prices likely returning to the range of 70,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton based on historical trends and cost structures [10].

2025 年 11 月 28 日 公司研究/公司快报 分析师： 肖索 执业登记编码：S0760522030006 邮箱：xiaosuo@sxzq.com 杜羽枢 执业登记编码：S0760523110002 邮箱：duyushu@sxzq.com 储能 海博思创（688411.SH） 买入-A(首次) 国内储能稳居龙头，海外市场正在突破 事件描述 公司上市以来股价表现 | 年 月 市场数据：2025 | 11 | 日 25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元）： | | | 299.46 | | 年内最高/最低（元）： | | | 426.01/57.00 | | 流通A股/总股本（亿）： | | | 0.38/1.80 | | 流通 A 股市值（亿）： | | | 113.60 | | 总市值（亿）： | | | 539.30 | | 年 基础数据：2025 | 月 9 | 日 30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本每股收益(元)： | | | 3.58 | | 摊薄每股收益(元)： | | | 3.58 | | 每股净资产(元)： ...

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Price Trends - Since mid-October, lithium carbonate futures prices have been on the rise, surpassing 100,000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of over 30% [1] - The primary driver of this price increase is the unexpected growth in demand, shifting the market supply-demand balance from a surplus at the beginning of the year to a more balanced state, with expectations of tight balance continuing into 2026 [1] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Demand - Despite expectations of subsidy reductions for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in 2026, demand remains robust, with NEV sales accounting for over 50% of total new car sales in October [2] - In October, NEV production and sales reached 1.772 million and 1.715 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 21.1% and 20% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, NEV production reached 12.992 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with expectations of exceeding 16.8 million units for the entire year, reflecting a growth rate of over 30% [2] Group 3: Battery Production Growth - The production of power battery cells has been on a continuous upward trend since August, with October production reaching 124.87 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 10.9% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to October, the total production of power battery cells was 985.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 44%, with expectations of exceeding 1,250 GWh for the year, reflecting a growth rate of over 43% [2] Group 4: Energy Storage Industry Outlook - The energy storage battery sector remains optimistic, with expectations of 40% to 50% growth in the global energy storage industry in 2026, as indicated by leading companies [3] - In the first three quarters of 2025, global energy storage cell shipments reached 410.45 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 98.5%, with projections for total shipments in 2025 to exceed 560 GWh [3] - Preliminary estimates suggest that global energy storage cell shipments will approach 800 GWh in 2026, maintaining a high growth trajectory [3] Group 5: Inventory and Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a continuous destocking trend, with total inventory as of November 20 at 118,420 tons, a decrease of 2,052 tons from the previous month [5] - Compared to the peak inventory of 143,170 tons earlier in the year, there has been a cumulative reduction of 24,750 tons [5] - In the medium to long term, the tight supply-demand balance is expected to support a steady increase in lithium carbonate prices, despite potential short-term volatility due to market sentiment and policy adjustments [5]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle starting in 2026, driven by stable supply-demand dynamics and advancements in solid-state battery technology [2][4]. Demand - A new growth cycle is emerging, with energy storage expected to become a core growth driver. The domestic market for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is benefiting from increased battery capacity and the expansion of new application scenarios, leading to sustained high growth in demand for power batteries [7][10]. - In 2026, the average battery capacity for domestic passenger vehicles is projected to continue increasing, supported by policy adjustments and the introduction of high-capacity fast-charging models [7]. - The European market is anticipated to see accelerated demand recovery in 2026, driven by the launch of new platform models and continued subsidies for NEVs [10]. Supply and Demand - The supply-demand inflection point is approaching, with a confirmed trend of price reversal. By 2025, the demand driven by energy storage is expected to exceed expectations, leading to improved supply-demand relationships and price increases in various segments of the lithium battery supply chain [11][17]. - The overall capacity utilization rate in the industry is expected to rise, with leading manufacturers operating at near full capacity by the third quarter of 2025 [17]. New Technology - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with several manufacturers expected to achieve small-scale production by 2026. The focus is on solid-state sulfide batteries, which are anticipated to reach mass production levels [30][31]. - Semi-solid batteries are also gaining traction due to their higher safety and energy density, with commercial production expected to ramp up in various sectors, including electric vehicles and energy storage [29][30]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy includes focusing on energy storage demand exceeding expectations, which will drive a reversal trend in the sector. Key recommendations include lithium battery materials, batteries, and related components [5]. - New technologies, particularly solid-state and sodium batteries, are highlighted as high-growth investment directions, with significant breakthroughs expected in 2026 [5][34]. International Expansion - The lithium battery supply chain is accelerating its global manufacturing layout, with significant production expected to come online in 2026 across Europe and Southeast Asia. This expansion is anticipated to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions and trade frictions [25][26]. - Companies are adopting new business models, such as technology licensing, to facilitate entry into markets with high trade barriers, exemplified by CATL's LRS model in the U.S. [27]. Charging Infrastructure - The domestic charging station construction is expected to benefit from supportive policies, while the U.S. market may see a surge in installations due to preemptive actions ahead of tariff impacts [39].

11月24日晚间，龙蟠科技（603906.SH，股价16.42元，市值112.49亿元）公告称，公司控股子公司常州锂源及控股孙公司南京锂源（以下简称"卖方"）与楚 能新能源全资子公司武汉楚能、孝感楚能及宜昌楚能（以下简称为"买方"）共同签署了《补充协议二》，对原协议相关条款进行补充与修订。 原协议约定，2025年至2030年，卖方合计向买方销售15万吨磷酸铁锂正极材料产品。此次《补充协议二》约定，2025年至2030年，卖方合计向买方销售130 万吨磷酸铁锂正极材料产品。 《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称"每经记者"）注意到，公告显示，如按照预计数量及市场价格估算（不考虑客供碳酸锂模式的情况下），《补充协议二》 与原协议总销售金额超450亿元（最终根据销售订单据实结算）。 今年下半年以来，储能需求爆发式增长，造成锂电材料整体供应偏紧。而楚能新能源作为国内储能电芯领域的新势力，且近期正筹划大幅扩产。 9月6日，楚能新能源表示，公司宜昌锂电产业园二期规划年产能80GWh（吉瓦时），研发生产动力电池、储能电池及PACK（包装）模组等新能源产品。 9月15日，楚能新能源又与襄阳市政府签约，公司襄阳锂电池产业园规划年产能 ...