不同于一般投资品，黄金具备商品属性、金融属性、投资属性等特点。影响黄金价格走势的不只是供需基本面，还有货币政策、对冲风险、对冲通胀等多 重因素。 避险功能是黄金的重要价值，风险始终是推升金价的"关键词"。今年以来黄金价格上涨的主要推动力，来自地缘政治紧张局势加剧和由此导致的市场避险 情绪快速升温。美国突袭委内瑞拉、致力于获取格陵兰岛等多重风险因素叠加，共同推动了市场对黄金的强烈避险需求。 全球央行加快购金步伐，也是今年以来推动黄金价格上涨的重要因素。当地时间1月20日，波兰央行表示，已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划，此举将 使该国的黄金储备总量增加到700吨。众多国家央行购金，除了为优化自身外汇储备资产结构，实现资产保值增值，还是为了对冲地缘政治风险而采取的 长远战略。 浙江省湖州市德清县乾元镇一家金店的营业员在整理黄金首饰。新华社发（倪立芳摄） 去年，国际金价全年涨幅70%左右，创下自1979年石油危机以来年度最大涨幅。今年以来，国际金价继续强势上涨，目前与年初相比已上涨15%左右。 受国际金价影响，国内金价同样大幅上涨。今年以来，上海黄金交易所现货黄金价格多次创下新高，品牌金店的足金饰品报价突破每克1 ...

不同于一般投资品，黄金具备商品属性、金融属性、投资属性等特点。影响黄金价格走势的不只是供需基本面，还有货币政策、对冲风险、对冲通胀等多 重因素。 避险功能是黄金的重要价值，风险始终是推升金价的"关键词"。今年以来黄金价格上涨的主要推动力，来自地缘政治紧张局势加剧和由此导致的市场避险 情绪快速升温。美国突袭委内瑞拉、致力于获取格陵兰岛等多重风险因素叠加，共同推动了市场对黄金的强烈避险需求。 全球央行加快购金步伐，也是今年以来推动黄金价格上涨的重要因素。当地时间1月20日，波兰央行表示，已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划，此举将 使该国的黄金储备总量增加到700吨。众多国家央行购金，除了为优化自身外汇储备资产结构，实现资产保值增值，还是为了对冲地缘政治风险而采取的 长远战略。 从国际金价突破整数关口的速度可以观察近期金价上涨的迅猛程度。从每盎司1000美元到2020年8月首次触及2000美元，黄金用了12年半。2023年11月， 国际金价再度触及每盎司2000美元后开始上涨，至2025年3月触及每盎司3000美元，用时17个月左右。之后，国际金价一路上行，至2025年10月，触及每 盎司4000美元，用时7个月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [4] - The return of the United States to the Monroe Doctrine and its global contraction will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US Treasuries, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Global Economic News - Japan's fiscal crisis and Trump's actions have led to a "triple kill" in the US financial market, with some suggesting Europe may be creating market turmoil to pressure Trump [1] - Bridgewater's founder, Ray Dalio, warns that Trump's radical policies may trigger a global capital war, which could lead to inflation or currency depreciation and increase foreign investors' concerns [1] - Danish pension fund AkademikerPension plans to sell US Treasuries by the end of the month due to credit risks from Trump's policies, holding about $100 million in US Treasuries at the end of 2025 [1] - The world's largest AI open - source community Hugging Face states that DeepSeek R - 1 has broken barriers, leading to China's AI reshaping the global landscape with more model downloads than the US [1] - Tesla will restart its supercomputer project Dojo 3, marking a major shift in its chip strategy towards "space artificial intelligence computing" [1] - Japan's government bond market has crashed, forcing the Bank of Japan to consider restarting unlimited bond - buying, which may lead to the yen breaking the 160 exchange - rate line [1] - Foreign investors account for about 65% of Japan's monthly government bond cash trading volume, and more Japanese pension funds may return to Japan, impacting the US Treasury market [1] - Poland's central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its reserves to 700 tons and aiming to be among the top 10 countries in gold reserves [1] Global Economic Logic - The US's actions such as seizing control of Venezuela's oil and threatening to buy Greenland have brought great uncertainty to the global political and economic order, and it has imposed punitive tariffs on 8 European countries, with European countries planning counter - tariffs [2] - A US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and Nomura predicts that Fed - related uncertainties will peak from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from US assets" [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US has released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending pattern, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families are cutting back [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.18% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years to meet AI service demand [2] - TSMC estimates its 2026 capital expenditure to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a 27% - 37% increase year - on - year, signaling the continued boom in AI and restoring investors' confidence in AI demand [2]

每日经济新闻 消息面上，美国总统特朗普态度缓和，宣布已与北约秘书长吕特就格陵兰岛问题达成协议框架。声称方 案最终得以落实，将对美国和所有北约成员国都大有裨益。特朗普表示，将不会实施原定于2月1日生效 的关税措施。受此消息影响，美股直线拉升，三大股指均涨超1%；现货黄金白银盘中跳水。 相关分析指出，美国总统特朗普围绕格陵兰岛的强硬立场及其突然的转折，避险情绪快速退潮，金价自 高位4891美元回落，盘中一度跌破4760美元。黄金的调整体现了避险资产的双刃剑特性：一方面，它在 危机中闪耀；另一方面，当风险消散时，它容易面临获利了结的压力。不过，正如Haberkorn所言，这 种调整不会逆转大趋势。黄金的长期上涨源于全球经济的不确定性，包括持续的地缘紧张、通胀压力和 供应链脆弱性，这些因素在2026年仍将存在，为黄金提供坚实底部支撑。 2026年1月21日，受美欧局势升级催化，避险情绪持续升温，现货期货金价双双突破4880美元，再创历 史新高记录，盘中随特朗普态度缓和，避险情绪退潮，金价高位回落，盘中一度跌破4760美元，尾盘小 幅拉升，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨1.48%报4836.20美元/盎司，黄金ETF华 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the Huabao ETF (159876), indicates strong investor confidence, with significant net subscriptions and price resilience, suggesting a bullish outlook for the sector [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 20, the Huabao ETF (159876) showed resilience with a price increase of 0.18%, and it received a net subscription of 28.8 million units, following a remarkable 644 million yuan in subscriptions over the previous ten days [1][9]. - The total market capitalization of the Huabao ETF reached 1.626 billion yuan, setting a new historical high as of January 19 [3][11]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metal sector, such as Hunan Silver, Silver Industry, and Mingtai Aluminum, experienced significant price increases, with Hunan Silver and Silver Industry both hitting the daily limit of 10.03% [2][12]. - Other notable performers included Nanshan Aluminum with a 7.49% increase and Shanjin International with a 5.71% rise [2][12]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts believe that the non-ferrous metal sector is driven by multiple factors, including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved domestic macroeconomic expectations, leading to a consensus that the sector will continue to perform well [3][11]. - Institutions like CICC and Zhongtai Securities predict a bull market for the non-ferrous industry by 2026, driven by a combination of monetary, demand, and supply factors [3][11]. Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The geopolitical risks and inflation pressures have led to a surge in gold prices, with the international COMEX gold reaching a historic high of $4,723 per ounce [2][10]. - Ever-increasing demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset is expected to make it an essential part of asset allocation strategies by 2026 [2][10]. Group 5: ETF Coverage - The Huabao ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the beta performance across different economic cycles [6][14].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historic high of nearly $4600 per ounce, with a significant annual increase of approximately 70% in 2025, marking the largest annual rise since the 1979 oil crisis [1] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The current surge in international gold prices began in the second half of 2019, with an 18% increase that year. From 2020 to 2023, gold prices frequently surpassed $2000 per ounce, and in 2024, they exceeded $2800 per ounce with a 27% annual increase. By March 2025, prices crossed $3000 per ounce, and by October, they surpassed $4000 per ounce, culminating in a record high near $4600 per ounce by year-end [1] - Domestic gold prices in China have also risen significantly, with gold jewelry prices increasing from around 800 yuan per gram to approximately 1360 yuan per gram within the year [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased global demand for safe-haven assets and a decline in the credibility of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle and the weakening dollar have reduced the holding costs of gold [1] - Geopolitical risks and rising global economic uncertainties have intensified market demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset, leading to a surge in prices [2] - Central banks worldwide are diversifying their reserves and significantly increasing gold holdings, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [2] Group 3: Related Precious Metals - The increase in international gold prices has also led to substantial rises in other precious metals, with silver and platinum prices rising over 140% and palladium over 100% last year. The strong performance of gold has activated sector rotation, boosting the overall valuation of precious metals [2] - Industrial demand for certain precious metals, such as silver, has also supported price increases, driven by rapid developments in industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The gold market is expected to enter a new phase of dynamic balance and multiple forces at play by 2026, according to industry experts [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach, recognize market risks, and follow diversification principles in their gold investments, employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging to smooth returns [3]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責 任。 誠如本公司日期為2025年8月7日 及2025年8月29日 的 公 告 所 披 露，本 集 團 已 停 止 及中止對FM商 標 之 任 何 使 用，並 停 止 自 稱 為 相 關 產 品 之（獨 家）分 銷 商。此 舉 不 可 避 免 地 影 響 本 集 團 之 業 務 營 運。 – 1 – 誠如本公司日期為2025年11月28日 的 公 告 所 披 露，與 歐 洲 鐘 錶 品 牌 正 持 續 進 行 討 論，惟 由 於 雙 方 未 能 就 相 關 商 業 條 款（包 括 但 不 限 於 相 關 最 低 採 購 金 額）達 成 共 識，故 未 有 重 大 更 新。 鑑 於 全 球 經 濟 不 確 定 性 及 零 售 業 務 危 機，本 集 團 於 日 常 業 務 營 運 中 一 直 審 慎 行 事，並 已 採 取 措 施 控 制 成 本 及 開 支 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold is regaining favor as a traditional safe-haven asset amid ongoing global economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks, with traders closely monitoring upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes for monetary policy clues [1][3]. Market Analysis - On December 30, gold prices showed positive movement, supported by strong expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 and continued inflows of safe-haven funds, which are expected to provide strong support for gold prices and limit further downside [1][3]. - The international gold price experienced a significant drop from approximately $4549 to around $4303, a decline of about $246 in a single day, before stabilizing [4]. - Following the initial drop, gold prices rebounded slightly but faced resistance around $4383, leading to a period of minor fluctuations as the market sought to recover from the sharp decline [4]. Technical Indicators - The key resistance level is identified at the upper Bollinger Band around $4520; a decisive breakthrough could open up further upward potential, aiming to retest historical highs of $4550 and challenge the psychological level of $4600 [4]. - Initial support is located in the $4305-$4300 range, corresponding to the low on December 29 and significant round numbers; if this area is breached, further corrections may target the December 16 low of approximately $4271 [2][4]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading strategy includes testing positions around key resistance levels of 4387, 4397, and 4430, with support levels at 4340, 4323, and 4305 [5][6]. - For intraday trading, a light position is recommended with a margin of error of ±2, suggesting a stop loss of 5 points and an initial target of around 15 points [6].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling over $200, as profit-taking occurred after a bullish week, but the overall trend remains upward with technical support from moving averages [1][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 29, gold opened at $4,537.12 per ounce, reached a high of $4,548.58, and then fell to a low of $4,303.73, closing at $4,331.93, marking a daily decline of $202.19 or 4.46% [1][12]. - The daily trading range was $244.85, indicating high volatility during the session [1][12]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The opening on December 30 saw gold prices supported by buying interest at the mid-chart level, with geopolitical tensions providing a positive boost [3][13]. - Despite a bearish outlook from upcoming U.S. economic indicators, the long-term bullish sentiment for gold remains intact due to global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [3][14]. - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting minutes, which may influence gold prices depending on the tone regarding interest rates [14][16]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently supported by various moving averages, indicating potential buying opportunities if prices retrace to these levels [9][10]. - The monthly chart shows a potential bearish pattern, suggesting risks of a drop to the $4,000-$3,900 range, but a strong performance in the following month could lead to a bullish outlook towards $5,500-$6,000 [16][19]. Group 4: Influencing Factors - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is seen as a critical factor that could either support or hinder gold prices, with expectations leaning towards a more dovish approach [4][8][17]. - Continued adjustments in central bank reserve structures and persistent inflationary pressures are expected to support gold demand in the long term [16].

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling over $200, as investors opted for profit-taking after a week of bullish activity and a surge in silver prices [3] - Despite the recent decline, the overall trend remains bullish, supported by global economic uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [3] Technical Analysis - Gold prices fell from a peak to a low of 4305, indicating a substantial decline, but the market has not broken key support levels, suggesting a potential for recovery [4] - If gold stabilizes above 4400, it may indicate a shift back to a strong bullish trend, with targets set at 4500 [4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider entering long positions in gold, particularly if prices approach 4330, with initial targets at 4400 and further upside potential at 4500 [4] - For domestic gold contracts, a cautious approach is recommended, with opportunities to enter long positions as the market adjusts after recent declines [4]