Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a slightly upward trend last week. Looking ahead, the macro - environment remains warm due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Fundamentally, supply is supported by rainfall affecting rubber tapping, but there is supply pressure later. Demand is fair, and inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected that the futures market may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term [8][87]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2601 fluctuated between 15,650 - 16,160 yuan/ton, showing a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. As of August 29, 2025, it closed at 15,860 yuan/ton, up 235 points or 1.5% for the week [13]. (2) Spot Price - As of August 29, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai triple smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,200 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [18][21]. (3) Basis and Spread - Using the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference, the basis narrowed slightly last week. As of August 29, 2025, the basis was - 960 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton narrower than last week. The domestic price of natural rubber rose slightly last week, while the overseas price fell slightly [26][29]. 2. Important Market Information - Multiple important economic and trade events were reported, including the US Fed's interest - rate - related statements, US economic data (such as GDP, PCE, unemployment claims), EU - US tariff negotiations, China's economic data (such as industrial added - value, industrial profits, logistics volume), and industry - related data (such as automobile, tire production and sales) [30][31][32]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of June 30, 2025, the total production of major natural rubber - producing countries was 835,400 tons, an increase of 15.6% from the previous month. As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 737,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the cumulative production was 5.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.64% [40][45][49]. 4. Demand - side Situation - As of August 28, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 72.77%, down 0.36% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 63.84%, down 0.92% from last week. As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.5911 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.27%; the monthly sales volume was 2.5934 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.71%. The monthly sales volume of heavy trucks was 84,885 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.26%. The monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 94.364 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 66.65 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 10.51% [55][59][62]. 5. Inventory - side Situation - As of August 29, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 178,640 tons, an increase of 170 tons from last week. As of August 24, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%; the total inventory in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71% [84]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Currently in the peak supply season, rainfall in Southeast Asian and domestic production areas affects rubber tapping, supporting raw material prices. In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased by 2.47% month - on - month and decreased by 1.91% year - on - year, with cumulative imports from January - July increasing by 21.82% year - on - year, but the growth rate was lower than in previous years. - Demand: The operating rate of tire enterprises decreased slightly last week. The semi - steel tire market has sufficient inventory and is actively selling; the all - steel tire market has average sales, and downstream customers mainly replenish inventory regularly. In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, heavy - truck sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, China's tire exports increased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative tire production in 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. - Inventory: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly last week, while China's social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory decreased slightly [86]. 7.后市展望 - The price of the main natural rubber futures contract may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term. Key factors to watch include the meeting of the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine, the Fed's interest - rate cut, weather in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, and Sino - US tariff changes [87]. 8.观点及操作策略 - This week's view: It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term. - Operating strategy: Consider going long on dips for single - side trading; hold off on arbitrage and options trading for now [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2510 fell 3.31%, and the far - month contracts fell between 2 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 8.7% week - on - week, and the spot indicators continued to fall, which is expected to drive down the futures prices. With shipping companies engaging in a "price war" and the global trade situation being uncertain due to potential tariff increases, and the weakening of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, coupled with the weak demand expectation for the container shipping index (European line) and large fluctuations in futures prices, investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures盘面 - EC main contract closing price is 1285.000, down 44.0; EC sub - main contract closing price is 1571, down 62.90. The spread between EC2510 and EC2512 is - 286.00, up 18.50; the spread between EC2510 and EC2602 is - 115.00, up 9.80. The EC contract basis is 705.20, up 31.00. The main contract position of EC is 54,248, up 523 [1] Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) is 1990.20, down 189.97; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly) is 1,041.38, down 64.91. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1415.36, down 44.83; container ship capacity is 1,227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.44. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1174.87, down 18.47; CCFI (European line) (weekly) is 1,757.74, down 32.73. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2046.00, down 5.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1,874.00, down 56.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships is 14,606.00, up 204.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 26,364.00, down 1704.00 [1] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports. In June, the global economic and trade friction index was 92, in the medium - high range. Affected by factors such as the US extending the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the global economic and trade friction continued to ease, with the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures decreasing by 14.7% year - on - year and 13.7% month - on - month. The New York Fed President Williams said it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time and is quite optimistic about the economic situation [1] Key Points to Watch - On August 29, important economic data will be released, including Japan's July unemployment rate, France's August CPI monthly rate preliminary value, France's second - quarter GDP annual rate final value, Germany's August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's August CPI monthly rate preliminary value, the US July core PCE price index annual rate, the US July personal expenditure monthly rate, and the US August University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [1]

Group 1 - The global trade friction index for June is 92, indicating a moderate to high level of trade tensions, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.7% in the monetary value of trade friction measures [1] - Among 20 monitored countries, India, the United States, and Brazil have the highest trade friction indices, with the United States having the most significant monetary involvement for 12 consecutive months [2] - In 13 major industries monitored, trade friction is primarily concentrated in the electronics, transportation equipment, and machinery sectors, with the electronics sector having the highest trade friction index [3] Group 2 - A total of 23 import and export tariff measures were announced across the 20 monitored countries, along with 47 trade remedy investigations, 93 notifications to the WTO regarding technical barriers to trade (TBT) and sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS), 12 import and export restrictions, and 145 other restrictive measures, indicating that tariff measures are a common tool for protecting domestic industries [3] - The trade friction index concerning China is at a high level of 102 among 19 countries, with India having the highest index related to China, particularly in the electronics sector, including cameras, routers, and chips [3] - The monetary value of trade friction measures involving China has decreased by 16.3% year-on-year and 13.6% month-on-month among the 19 countries [3]

Group 1 - The global trade friction index for June 2025 is reported at 92, indicating a medium-high level, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.7% due to factors such as the extension of the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US [1] - The Trump administration is considering increasing its influence over the 12 regional banks of the Federal Reserve, including reviewing the selection process for bank presidents [1] - US Treasury Secretary Becerra stated that there are currently 11 strong candidates for the position of Federal Reserve Chair, with interviews expected to start after Labor Day and a decision anticipated in the fall [1] Group 2 - New York Fed President Williams indicated that lowering interest rates at the appropriate time is suitable, noting that current policy remains moderately restrictive [2] - The EU Commission responded to the Trump administration's threats of tariffs on foreign digital regulations, asserting its right to set digital policies independently, and is considering proposing a reduction in tariffs on US goods to ease tensions [2] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.32% to 455,565.23 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.24% to 6,481.4 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.21% to 21,590.14 points [3] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.55% to $3,451.80 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 0.22% to $38.69 per ounce [3] Group 4 - The main contract for US oil rose by 0.96% to $63.86 per barrel, and the main contract for Brent crude oil increased by 0.75% to $67.20 per barrel [4] - The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 6.19 basis points to 3.611%, the 5-year yield decreased by 3.84 basis points to 3.700%, the 10-year yield dropped by 2.72 basis points to 4.234%, and the 30-year yield fell by 0.10 basis points to 4.919% [4] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.04% to 98.19, with the euro to dollar rate down by 0.03% to 1.1638, while the pound to dollar rate increased by 0.16% to 1.3499 [4]

Group 1 - The global trade friction index for June is reported at 92, indicating a moderate to high level of trade tensions, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.7% in the monetary value of trade friction measures [1] - The United States continues to lead in global trade friction measures, with the highest monetary involvement for 12 consecutive months, followed by India and Brazil [1] - The electronics, transportation equipment, and machinery sectors are the primary focus of trade friction, with the electronics sector having the highest trade friction index [1] Group 2 - The trade friction index concerning China from 19 countries is at 102, indicating a high level of trade tensions, with India having the highest index [2] - The monetary value of trade friction measures involving China has decreased by 16.3% year-on-year and 13.6% month-on-month [2] - The electronics sector, particularly in areas such as cameras, routers, and chips, shows a high level of trade friction in relation to China [2]

Core Insights - The global trade friction index for June is reported at 92, indicating a medium to high level of trade tensions [1] - Global trade friction measures have decreased, with the total amount involved dropping by 14.7% year-on-year and 13.7% month-on-month [1] Industry Analysis - Among 13 major industries monitored, trade friction measures are primarily concentrated in the electronics, transportation equipment, and machinery sectors, with the electronics industry having the highest trade friction index [1] - The index for import and export tariff measures is the highest among various sub-indices, reflecting the impact of U.S. tariff policies as a common method for economies to protect domestic industries [1] Trade Measures Overview - A total of 23 import and export tariff measures were reported across 20 countries/regions, alongside 47 trade remedy investigations initiated [1] - There were 93 notifications submitted to the WTO regarding technical barriers to trade (TBT) and sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS), as well as 12 import and export restrictions and 145 other restrictive measures [1]

今年以来，中国贸促会组织出访团组257个、涉及55个国家和地区；全国贸促系统上半年累计签发原产 地证书等各类证书388.87万份，同比增长13.31%……中国贸促会31日发布的最新数据表明，面对困难和 压力，中国贸促会发挥全国地方和行业贸促机构作用，尽一切努力为企业抢订单、拓市场提供帮助。 境外展览是企业获取外贸订单的重要途径。中国贸促会新闻发言人王琳洁在当天举行的例行新闻发布会 上介绍，今年第一季度，美国是中国企业第一大境外参展目的国，有近2000家中国企业赴美参展，展出 净面积27178平方米，同比增长2.3%；第二季度，东盟、拉美等新兴市场参展企业数合计占比39.8%， 较2024年同期提升8.5个百分点。 此外，中国贸促会积极遴选组织电子信息、人工智能、绿色低碳和智能制造等领域优秀中国企业，在国 际重要科技展会上集中亮相，充分展示我国在智能终端、通信技术、机器人等领域的自主创新成果，为 高技术、高附加值产品扩大出口注入新动能。 王琳洁表示，总体看，今年上半年出国展览工作运行平稳，参展行业更加多元，参展区域持续拓展，参 展企业质量稳步提升，企业获得感显著增强。 "中美关系希望在人民，基础在民间。"王琳洁 ...

Group 1 - The global trade friction index for May was reported at 105, indicating a high level of trade tensions, but there was a decrease in the amount involved by 13% year-on-year and 37.8% month-on-month due to various factors including the suspension of some tariff measures by the US [1] - In the first half of 2025, the total number of certificates issued by the national trade promotion system reached 3.8887 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.31%, with non-preferential certificates amounting to $171.182 billion and preferential certificates amounting to $48.197 billion, showing significant growth in both categories [3] - The electronic industry has the highest trade friction index among 13 major industries, with the US leading in trade friction measures, including tariffs and import/export restrictions, contributing to the sustained high level of the global trade friction index [4][5] Group 2 - The trade friction index concerning China from 19 countries was reported at 105, with the US having the highest index. The amount involved in trade friction measures decreased by 57.8% year-on-year and 13.5% month-on-month, attributed to positive market reactions following the US-China Geneva trade talks [5] - Over 23,000 enterprises participated in overseas exhibitions in the first half of the year, with a total of 1,418 exhibition projects approved, indicating a trend towards market diversification and structural optimization [6] - The interest in overseas exhibitions for emerging industries such as new energy and electronic information has increased, with 850 Chinese enterprises participating in the European International Smart Energy Exhibition, showcasing China's advancements in high-tech and high-value-added products [7]

中国贸促会新闻发言人王琳洁表示，4月2日，美国政府以存在贸易逆差和非关税壁垒等问题为由实 施"对等关税"，以及当月实施的多项限制措施，是4月份全球经贸摩擦指数持续走高的主要原因。其 中，全球进出口关税措施指数同比提高89个点，涉华进出口关税措施指数同比提高131个点。美国当月 的全球经贸摩擦指数同比增长65个点，进出口关税措施指数同比增长199个点，涉华进出口关税措施指 数同比增长200个点。 中国贸促会27日发布的数据显示，4月全球经贸摩擦指数为131，进一步走高。全球经贸摩擦措施涉及金 额同比大幅上升37.6%，环比上升16%。 从行业指数看，在监测范围内13个主要行业中，经贸摩擦措施的冲突点聚焦于电子、运输设备、轻工、 化工、机械设备、医药、有色金属和农业，其中电子行业经贸摩擦指数居首。 （文章来源：新华财经） 从国别指数看，在监测范围内的20个国家（地区）中，美国、日本和印度的全球经贸摩擦指数位居前 三。美国全球经贸摩擦措施涉及金额最多，连续10个月居首。 从分项指数看，在监测范围内的20个国家（地区）共发布105项进出口关税措施，同比增长483%，环比 增长250%；发布进出口限制措施24项，同比增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant escalation of global trade frictions due to recent U.S. tariff policies, with a notable increase in the global trade friction index and related measures impacting various industries and countries [1][2][6]. Group 1: Global Trade Friction Index - In April, the global trade friction index rose to 131, with related measures involving an amount that increased by 37.6% year-on-year and 16% month-on-month [2]. - The global import and export tariff measures index surged by 89 points year-on-year, with the China-related portion increasing by 131 points [4]. - The U.S. trade friction index increased by 65 points year-on-year, with its import and export tariff measures index skyrocketing by 199 points, and the China-related tariff measures index rising by 200 points [4]. Group 2: Country-Specific Observations - Among 20 countries monitored, the U.S., Japan, and India have the highest trade friction indices, with the U.S. being the largest country in terms of trade restriction measures for 10 consecutive months [7]. - The European Union saw a 79.3% month-on-month increase in tariff and restriction measures, while Canada and India experienced a 100% year-on-year increase in related measures [8]. Group 3: Industry Impact - Thirteen major industries, including electronics, transportation equipment, light industry, chemicals, machinery, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture, have become focal points of trade frictions, with the electronics sector experiencing the highest friction index [8]. - A total of 105 tariff measures were introduced across the monitored countries, marking a 483% year-on-year increase and a 250% month-on-month increase [8]. Group 4: China's Foreign Trade Resilience - Despite external pressures, China's foreign trade has shown strong resilience, with the total number of various certificates issued by the trade promotion system reaching 639,400 in May, a year-on-year increase of 12.51% [9]. - The value of preferential certificates issued by the trade promotion system amounted to $7.911 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.05% [9]. Group 5: U.S.-China Business Relations - A recent survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China indicates that 67% of member companies have no plans to relocate, affirming China as a primary investment destination [11]. - The ongoing cooperation between U.S. and Chinese businesses is emphasized, with significant participation from U.S. companies in upcoming trade events, indicating a continued interest in collaboration despite trade tensions [12][13].