Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 181.7 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous operations [1] - The overnight and 7-day Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) slightly decreased, while the 14-day Shibor fell by over 10 basis points [1][2] Shibor Rates - As of September 28, the overnight Shibor decreased by 0.70 basis points to 1.3140%, the 7-day Shibor fell by 0.40 basis points to 1.4970%, and the 14-day Shibor dropped by 10.90 basis points to 1.5370% [2] Interbank Repo Market - In the interbank pledged repo market, the 7-day rates increased while the 14-day rates significantly decreased. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 0.6 basis points and 1.2 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rates rose by 2.4 basis points and 8.4 basis points [4] Market Conditions - On September 28, due to a holiday adjustment, most non-bank institutions were absent, leading to a relaxed funding environment. Overnight repo rates were around 1.45%, while rates for credit and certificates of deposit were between 1.90% and 1.95% [8] - A total of 44 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 107.74 billion yuan [8] Secondary Market Activity - Trading sentiment in the secondary market was relatively quiet due to the holiday adjustment, with prices remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The 1-month national bank stock ended at 1.66%, unchanged from the previous day [9]

Core Insights - The global trade friction index increased from 92 in June to 110 in July, indicating a rise in trade tensions [1] - The monetary value of global trade friction measures rose by 6.6% year-on-year and 27.6% month-on-month in July [1] - The United States, European Union, and Brazil ranked as the top three countries (regions) in the global trade friction index [1] Summary by Category - **Global Trade Friction Index** - The index reached a high level of 110 in July, up from 92 in June [1] - **Monetary Impact** - The amount involved in global trade friction measures increased by 6.6% compared to the previous year and by 27.6% compared to the previous month [1] - **Country Rankings** - The United States has the highest monetary involvement in global trade friction measures, maintaining this position for 13 consecutive months [1]

Core Insights - The global trade friction index reached 110 in July, indicating a high level of trade tensions, with trade friction measures involving an amount that increased by 6.6% year-on-year and 27.6% month-on-month [1] By Country - Among 20 monitored countries and regions, the United States, European Union, and Brazil had the highest global trade friction indices, with the U.S. leading in trade friction measures for 13 consecutive months [1] By Industry - The main industries affected by trade friction include electronics, chemicals, transportation equipment, machinery, pharmaceuticals, light industry, and non-ferrous metals, with the electronics sector having the highest trade friction index [1] China-related Trade Friction - The trade friction index related to China among 19 countries and regions was 107, indicating a high level of tension, with the U.S. having the highest index. Key sectors include drones, solar cells, and AI chips [1] - In July, the amount involved in trade friction measures related to China decreased by 16.4% year-on-year but increased by 11.9% month-on-month [1]

Core Insights - The global trade friction index reached 110 in July, indicating a high level of trade tensions influenced by the U.S. adjusting its tariff policies [1] - The monetary value of global trade friction measures increased by 6.6% year-on-year and 27.6% month-on-month [1] Country Analysis - Among 20 monitored countries and regions, the U.S., EU, and Brazil have the highest global trade friction indices, with the U.S. leading in the monetary value of trade friction measures for 13 consecutive months [1] Industry Analysis - The trade friction measures are concentrated in 13 major industries, with the electronics sector having the highest trade friction index [1] - Other affected industries include chemicals, transportation equipment, machinery, pharmaceuticals, light industry, and non-ferrous metals [1] Specific Measures - A total of 76 import and export tariff measures were reported across the 20 monitored countries and regions, along with 19 trade remedy investigations [1] - There were 134 notifications submitted to the WTO regarding technical barriers to trade (TBT) and sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS), 32 import and export restrictions, and 197 other restrictive measures [1] - The import and export tariff measures index is the highest among five categories of sub-indices, serving as a key bargaining chip in international trade negotiations [1]

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes the need to strengthen support for enterprises going abroad and improve the overseas comprehensive service system [2][3] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) reports an increase in the willingness of Chinese enterprises to expand internationally, with a significant rise in the number of business groups going abroad for negotiations [2][3] - Since 2024, the CCPIT has organized 2,249 batches of groups to visit 102 countries and regions, averaging six business groups traveling abroad daily for discussions [2][3] Group 2 - The CCPIT plans to enhance service resources across legal, financial, and logistics sectors, and establish comprehensive service ports and stations in key countries [3][4] - The CCPIT has approved 1,623 overseas exhibition projects this year, with a planned exhibition area of 950,000 square meters, and has executed 970 projects involving over 34,000 participating enterprises [4] - The CCPIT has established partnerships with international organizations to enhance legal services for enterprises, handling over 400 foreign-related cases and 6,570 mediation cases this year [4][5] Group 3 - The CCPIT has organized multiple training sessions for enterprises going abroad and has responded to over 20,000 inquiries through its trade law service [5] - The global economic and trade friction index reached 110 in July, indicating a high level of trade tensions, particularly influenced by U.S. tariff policy adjustments [6] - The CCPIT reports that the trade friction measures involving 20 monitored countries have increased by 6.6% year-on-year and 27.6% month-on-month [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for enhancing overseas comprehensive service systems to support Chinese enterprises in international cooperation and competition, especially as they accelerate their overseas expansion efforts [3][4]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - The State Council's executive meeting highlighted the importance of providing robust support for outbound enterprises and improving the overseas service system, including legal, financial, and logistics services [4]. - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) has initiated the "Thousand Groups Going Abroad" campaign, organizing 2,249 batches of groups to 102 countries and regions for business negotiations in 2024, averaging six groups per day [3][4]. Group 2: Service Enhancements - CCPIT plans to strengthen mechanisms to support outbound enterprises by addressing non-commercial risks and enhancing the quality of overseas investments [4]. - The organization aims to build more platforms for outbound activities, including industry exhibitions and participation in bilateral business events, to deepen cooperation with key markets and Belt and Road Initiative countries [4][5]. Group 3: Legal and Public Services - In 2023, CCPIT approved 1,623 overseas exhibition projects, with a planned exhibition area of 950,000 square meters, and executed 970 projects covering 64 organizing units and 51 countries, involving over 34,000 participating enterprises [5]. - CCPIT has established partnerships with international organizations to provide quality commercial legal services, handling over 400 foreign-related cases and 6,570 mediation cases in the first half of the year, with a total amount involved of nearly 10 billion [5][6]. Group 4: Global Trade Tensions - The global trade friction index reached 110 in July, indicating a high level of trade tensions, with a 6.6% year-on-year increase in the monetary value of trade friction measures [8]. - The United States, the European Union, and Brazil have the highest trade friction indices, with the electronics sector being the most affected [8][9].

Group 1 - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) has approved 1,623 overseas exhibition projects this year, with a planned exhibition area of 950,000 square meters [1][4] - The State Council emphasizes the need to enhance the overseas comprehensive service system to support enterprises in international cooperation and competition [3][5] - The CCPIT has organized 2,249 batches of groups to visit 102 countries and regions for business negotiations in 2024, averaging six enterprise groups going abroad daily [1][3] Group 2 - The CCPIT aims to strengthen the mechanism for supporting enterprises going abroad, focusing on collecting non-commercial risk demands faced by enterprises in overseas operations [3][4] - The organization is enhancing its legal services by collaborating with international organizations to protect intellectual property rights and provide legal support for overseas enterprises [4][5] - The global trade friction index reached 110 in July, indicating a high level of trade tensions, with the U.S. leading in trade friction measures [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a slightly upward trend last week. Looking ahead, the macro - environment remains warm due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Fundamentally, supply is supported by rainfall affecting rubber tapping, but there is supply pressure later. Demand is fair, and inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected that the futures market may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term [8][87]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2601 fluctuated between 15,650 - 16,160 yuan/ton, showing a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. As of August 29, 2025, it closed at 15,860 yuan/ton, up 235 points or 1.5% for the week [13]. (2) Spot Price - As of August 29, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai triple smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,200 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [18][21]. (3) Basis and Spread - Using the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference, the basis narrowed slightly last week. As of August 29, 2025, the basis was - 960 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton narrower than last week. The domestic price of natural rubber rose slightly last week, while the overseas price fell slightly [26][29]. 2. Important Market Information - Multiple important economic and trade events were reported, including the US Fed's interest - rate - related statements, US economic data (such as GDP, PCE, unemployment claims), EU - US tariff negotiations, China's economic data (such as industrial added - value, industrial profits, logistics volume), and industry - related data (such as automobile, tire production and sales) [30][31][32]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of June 30, 2025, the total production of major natural rubber - producing countries was 835,400 tons, an increase of 15.6% from the previous month. As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 737,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the cumulative production was 5.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.64% [40][45][49]. 4. Demand - side Situation - As of August 28, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 72.77%, down 0.36% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 63.84%, down 0.92% from last week. As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.5911 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.27%; the monthly sales volume was 2.5934 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.71%. The monthly sales volume of heavy trucks was 84,885 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.26%. The monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 94.364 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 66.65 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 10.51% [55][59][62]. 5. Inventory - side Situation - As of August 29, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 178,640 tons, an increase of 170 tons from last week. As of August 24, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%; the total inventory in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71% [84]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Currently in the peak supply season, rainfall in Southeast Asian and domestic production areas affects rubber tapping, supporting raw material prices. In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased by 2.47% month - on - month and decreased by 1.91% year - on - year, with cumulative imports from January - July increasing by 21.82% year - on - year, but the growth rate was lower than in previous years. - Demand: The operating rate of tire enterprises decreased slightly last week. The semi - steel tire market has sufficient inventory and is actively selling; the all - steel tire market has average sales, and downstream customers mainly replenish inventory regularly. In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, heavy - truck sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, China's tire exports increased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative tire production in 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. - Inventory: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly last week, while China's social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory decreased slightly [86]. 7.后市展望 - The price of the main natural rubber futures contract may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term. Key factors to watch include the meeting of the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine, the Fed's interest - rate cut, weather in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, and Sino - US tariff changes [87]. 8.观点及操作策略 - This week's view: It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term. - Operating strategy: Consider going long on dips for single - side trading; hold off on arbitrage and options trading for now [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2510 fell 3.31%, and the far - month contracts fell between 2 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 8.7% week - on - week, and the spot indicators continued to fall, which is expected to drive down the futures prices. With shipping companies engaging in a "price war" and the global trade situation being uncertain due to potential tariff increases, and the weakening of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, coupled with the weak demand expectation for the container shipping index (European line) and large fluctuations in futures prices, investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures盘面 - EC main contract closing price is 1285.000, down 44.0; EC sub - main contract closing price is 1571, down 62.90. The spread between EC2510 and EC2512 is - 286.00, up 18.50; the spread between EC2510 and EC2602 is - 115.00, up 9.80. The EC contract basis is 705.20, up 31.00. The main contract position of EC is 54,248, up 523 [1] Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) is 1990.20, down 189.97; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly) is 1,041.38, down 64.91. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1415.36, down 44.83; container ship capacity is 1,227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.44. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1174.87, down 18.47; CCFI (European line) (weekly) is 1,757.74, down 32.73. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2046.00, down 5.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1,874.00, down 56.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships is 14,606.00, up 204.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 26,364.00, down 1704.00 [1] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports. In June, the global economic and trade friction index was 92, in the medium - high range. Affected by factors such as the US extending the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the global economic and trade friction continued to ease, with the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures decreasing by 14.7% year - on - year and 13.7% month - on - month. The New York Fed President Williams said it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time and is quite optimistic about the economic situation [1] Key Points to Watch - On August 29, important economic data will be released, including Japan's July unemployment rate, France's August CPI monthly rate preliminary value, France's second - quarter GDP annual rate final value, Germany's August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's August CPI monthly rate preliminary value, the US July core PCE price index annual rate, the US July personal expenditure monthly rate, and the US August University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [1]

Group 1 - The global trade friction index for June is 92, indicating a moderate to high level of trade tensions, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.7% in the monetary value of trade friction measures [1] - Among 20 monitored countries, India, the United States, and Brazil have the highest trade friction indices, with the United States having the most significant monetary involvement for 12 consecutive months [2] - In 13 major industries monitored, trade friction is primarily concentrated in the electronics, transportation equipment, and machinery sectors, with the electronics sector having the highest trade friction index [3] Group 2 - A total of 23 import and export tariff measures were announced across the 20 monitored countries, along with 47 trade remedy investigations, 93 notifications to the WTO regarding technical barriers to trade (TBT) and sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS), 12 import and export restrictions, and 145 other restrictive measures, indicating that tariff measures are a common tool for protecting domestic industries [3] - The trade friction index concerning China is at a high level of 102 among 19 countries, with India having the highest index related to China, particularly in the electronics sector, including cameras, routers, and chips [3] - The monetary value of trade friction measures involving China has decreased by 16.3% year-on-year and 13.6% month-on-month among the 19 countries [3]