Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Economic fundamentals' continuous recovery and the implementation of expansionary fiscal policies require a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially drive long - term rates down. However, the potential upward pressure on long - term rates due to a rise in risk appetite should be watched out for. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL are the main contracts of 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and ultra - long - term (TL) treasury bond futures respectively. T's closing price rose 0.01% to 108.680, with a trading volume of 65,902 (down 276). TF's closing price fell 0.01% to 106.050, with a trading volume of 52,682 (up 1,537). TS's closing price fell 0.03% to 102.516, with a trading volume of 24,640 (down 6,201). TL's closing price fell 0.11% to 116.510, with a trading volume of 98,827 (down 4,923) [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads showed changes. For example, the TL2512 - 2603 spread was 0.24 (down 0.02), and the T12 - TL12 spread was - 7.83 (up 0.17) [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T's main position increased by 1,313 to 243,868. TF's main position increased by 1,862 to 151,286. TS's main position decreased by 1,209 to 71,166. TL's main position decreased by 4,976 to 137,774 [2]. 2. Cash Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds changed. For example, the net price of 220017.IB (4y) rose 0.0332 to 106.7458, while the net price of 250018.IB (4y) fell 0.0417 to 99.0955 [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: Yields of active treasury bonds showed different trends. The 1 - year yield remained unchanged at 1.38%, the 3 - year yield remained unchanged at 1.41%, the 5 - year yield rose 0.75bp to 1.53%, the 7 - year yield fell 0.75bp to 1.63%, and the 10 - year yield fell 1.00bp to 1.7925% [2]. 3. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Most short - term interest rates declined. The overnight silver - pledged repo rate fell 3.99bp to 1.3101%, and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate fell 6.00bp to 1.4000% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 4. Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The issuance scale was 783 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 3373 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 2590 billion yuan. The interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 5. Industry News - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The central bank governor detailed the main tasks of the "dual - pillar system". The finance minister proposed measures for the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, including using special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, optimizing income distribution, and dealing with local government debt [2]. 6. Key Data to Watch - On November 3 at 23:00, the US October ISM manufacturing PMI will be released. On November 5 at 21:15, the US October ADP employment data (in ten thousand people) will be released [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced the resumption of government bond trading operations after a pause earlier this year due to imbalances in supply and demand in the bond market and accumulated market risks [1] Group 1 - The PBOC suspended government bond trading at the beginning of the year due to significant pressures from supply-demand imbalances and market risks [1] - Currently, the overall operation of the bond market is reported to be stable [1] - The PBOC is set to restore open market operations for government bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has decided to resume the trading of government bonds in the open market after a pause earlier this year due to significant supply-demand imbalances and accumulated market risks [1] Group 1 - The PBOC's governor, Pan Gongsheng, announced the resumption of government bond trading at the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting [1] - Earlier this year, the PBOC suspended government bond trading to address the pressures from the imbalanced supply and demand in the bond market [1] - The overall operation of the bond market is currently stable, prompting the PBOC to reinstate open market operations for government bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to resume the operation of buying and selling government bonds in the open market, following a pause earlier this year due to significant supply-demand imbalances in the bond market [1]. Group 1 - The PBOC's Governor, Pan Gongsheng, announced the resumption of government bond trading operations at the 2025 Financial Street Forum [1]. - Earlier in the year, the PBOC suspended government bond trading due to considerable pressure from supply-demand imbalances in the bond market [1]. - Currently, the overall operation of the bond market is reported to be stable, prompting the decision to resume trading [1].

中国央行行长潘功胜宣布，央行将恢复公开市场国债买卖。人民银行将持续打击数字货币炒作，维护金融秩序，同时动态跟踪境外稳定币发展动态。 ...

Core Points - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation on October 23, 2025, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering method, amounting to 212.5 billion yuan for a 7-day term [1] - The operation interest rate was set at 1.40%, with both the bidding and winning amounts being 212.5 billion yuan [1] - A total of 236 billion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature today [1]

据央行网站消息，央行今日开展2125亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平。因今日有 2360亿元7天期逆回购到期，当日央行实现净回笼235亿元。 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 21, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 159.5 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 91 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 68.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market showed a balanced funding condition, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions fluctuating around 1.31% [3] - Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight using certificates of deposit and credit bonds, with rates around 1.4%, slightly lower than the previous day [3] - The central bank's shift to net injection is expected to mitigate liquidity risks ahead of tax periods and month-end [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is approximately 1.67%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank government bonds showed slight variations, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.5250%, unchanged from the previous day [9] - The 30-year government bond futures closed up by 0.16%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts rose by 0.05% [12] Group 5: Trust Industry Insights - As of June 2025, the total asset management scale of the trust industry reached 32.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.87 trillion yuan from the previous year, marking a growth rate of 9.7% [12] - This is the first time the trust scale has surpassed 30 trillion yuan, ranking third after insurance asset management and public funds [12] Group 6: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Several small and medium-sized banks have accelerated the pace of deposit rate cuts, with some products seeing reductions of up to 80 basis points [13] - There is a phenomenon of "inversion" in deposit rates across different maturities, with some banks offering better rates for shorter-term deposits compared to longer ones [13] Group 7: Real Estate Financing - In September, the total bond financing for the real estate sector amounted to 56.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31% [13] - The average bond financing interest rate was 2.68%, down by 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [13]

10月20日，据央行网站消息，央行今日开展1890亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持 平。因今日有2538亿元逆回购到期，当日实现净回笼648亿元。 ...

1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，10月17日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1648亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1648亿元，中标量1648亿元。Wind数据显 示，当日4090亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼2442亿元。当周全口径净回笼（包国库现金）6979亿元。 Wind数据显示，10月20日至24日当周，央行公开市场将有7891亿元逆回购到期，其中周一至周五分别到期2538亿元、910亿元、435亿元、2360亿元、 1648亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 资金面方面， 银行间市场资金面稳定宽松，存款类机构隔夜回购利率在1.31%附近窄幅波动；匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价稍有变化，从此前的 1.3%多数时间的单一价位，扩展到1.3%-1.34%区间，且供给有所减少。非银机构以存单及信用债等抵押融入隔夜，报价集中在1.4%-1.43%，较上日小幅 上行。交易员称，目前看不到更多的不利因素，本月税期较晚，在此之前预计压力有限；不过整体宽松局面下，还需要关注匿名隔夜报价的量、价波动。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.29%。 （IM ...