Core Viewpoint - The central bank conducted a total of 3.15 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 1.40%, alongside a 300 billion yuan 14-day reverse repo operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 146 billion yuan due to the maturity of 477.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos [1][1][1] Group 1 - The central bank's operation included 315 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos [1] - The interest rate for the 7-day reverse repo was set at 1.40% [1] - A 300 billion yuan 14-day reverse repo was conducted using a fixed quantity and multi-price bidding method [1] Group 2 - The maturity of 477.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos occurred today [1] - The net withdrawal from the market was 146 billion yuan as a result of these operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a total of 118.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today, indicating a proactive monetary policy stance to manage liquidity in the financial system [1] Group 1: Monetary Operations - The PBOC executed a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total bidding amount of 118.5 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 118.5 billion yuan, with an operation interest rate set at 1.40% [1] - Additionally, a 14-day reverse repurchase operation was conducted with a fixed amount of 300 billion yuan, utilizing a multi-price bidding method [1] - Due to the maturity of 354 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos today, the net liquidity injection for the day amounted to 64.5 billion yuan [1]

| 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | shenvb@sywggh. con. cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | IL | | | | | | 18 | | | 1月 | | | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | 前1日收盘价 | 1410.0 | | 1167.5 | 1245.5 | 1874. 0 | 1715.0 | 1784.0 | | 前2日收盘价 | 1397.5 | | 1141.5 | 1226.0 | 1840.0 | 1680. 5 | 1746.5 | | 楽時 | 12.5 | Ele | 26.0 | 19.5 | 34. 0 | 34.5 | 37.5 | | 煮跌幅 | 0. 89% | स्त | 2. 28% | 1.59% | 1.85% | 2. 05% | 2.15% | | | | 10 | | | | | | | 成交童 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile". [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. Traders are recommended to conduct band - trading operations. [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Tuesday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board. By the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.10%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.03%. [1] - The Wande All - A Index opened higher on Tuesday, fell in the morning session and then rose in a volatile manner. It closed 2.12% higher than the previous trading day, with a turnover of 2.57 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day's 2.61 trillion yuan. [2] 3.2 Important Information - In the open market on Tuesday, the central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 402 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan on the day. [1] - In the money market on Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined slightly. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% for the whole day, compared with 1.36% on the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.50%, compared with 1.49% on the previous trading day. [1] - In the cash bond market on Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year government bonds fell 0.80 BP to 1.38%, the 5 - year fell 0.47 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year fell 0.28 BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 BP to 2.28%. [1] - The central bank announced that it will conduct 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months on February 4 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. [1] - The central bank's net investment in government bond trading in the open market in January was 100 billion yuan. [1] - The No. 1 Central Document, "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Solidly Promoting Comprehensive Rural Revitalization", was released. [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line (previous value: 50.1%). The new orders index in January was 49.2% (previous value: 50.8%), indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8% (previous value: 52.8%), and the business activity index of the service industry in January was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous month: 49.7%). [1] - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the protection of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". [1] - Recently, the central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote a low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of government bond trading in liquidity management, and maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. [1]

央行公开市场开展3540亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%。Wind数据显示，今日2102亿元逆回购 到期。 央行公开市场开展3540亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%。Wind数据显示，今日2102亿元逆回购 到期。 ...

央行公开市场开展1505亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%。Wind数据显示，今日1583亿元逆回购 到期。 (本文来自第一财经) (本文来自第一财经) 央行公开市场开展1505亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%。Wind数据显示，今日1583亿元逆回购 到期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to continue increasing the medium-term lending facility (MLF) for the 11th consecutive month, indicating a sustained effort to inject liquidity into the banking system and support economic stability [1] Group 1: MLF Operations - The PBOC announced a 900 billion yuan MLF operation scheduled for January 23, 2026, with a one-year term, utilizing a fixed quantity and multi-price bidding method to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - In January, the PBOC conducted a net injection of 700 billion yuan through MLF, significantly higher than the previous month's net injection of 100 billion yuan, following the maturity of 200 billion yuan MLF [1] Group 2: Reverse Repo Operations - The PBOC also increased liquidity through reverse repos, with a continuation of the three-month reverse repo and an additional 300 billion yuan for the six-month reverse repo, marking the eighth consecutive month of liquidity injection via this method [1] - The total increase in reverse repo operations for January amounted to 300 billion yuan, contributing to the overall net liquidity provision in the market [1] Group 3: Future Liquidity Strategy - The PBOC has indicated plans to further enhance liquidity provision, employing a flexible combination of open market operations to ensure sufficient liquidity and guide overnight rates to remain close to policy rate levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 363.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 122.7 billion yuan into the market after accounting for maturing reverse repos [1]. Group 1: Market Operations - The People's Bank of China executed a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 363.5 billion yuan, maintaining the interest rate at 1.40% [1]. - On the same day, 240.8 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured, leading to a net liquidity injection of 122.7 billion yuan into the market [1]. - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) decreased by 5.20 basis points to 1.3220%, while the 7-day Shibor increased by 0.50 basis points to 1.4880% [1][2]. Group 2: Interbank Market Rates - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term rates showed mixed movements with minor fluctuations, and the transaction volume for R001 approached 8 trillion yuan [5]. - The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 5.0 basis points and 2.6 basis points, respectively, to 1.3212% and 1.395%, with transaction volumes increasing by 855 million yuan and 1.257 billion yuan [5]. - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 remained stable or decreased slightly, while DR014 and R014 saw slight increases and decreases in their rates [5]. Group 3: Funding Conditions - The overall funding environment on January 21 was characterized as balanced but slightly tight, with overnight transaction rates for pledged deposits ranging from 1.48% to 1.50% [11]. - As the day progressed, funding conditions tightened, with increased demand from banks leading to a gradual rise in non-bank lending rates to the 1.50%-1.55% range [11]. - By the end of the trading day, the overall funding situation remained balanced, with the lowest transaction rate for pledged deposits dropping to 1.40% [11].

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 363.5 billion yuan with an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous rates [1][3] - Due to the maturity of 240.8 billion yuan in reverse repos today, the net injection for the day was 122.7 billion yuan [1][3]

Group 1: Liquidity Overview - From January 12 to 16, the liquidity showed unexpected fluctuations, with R001 rising from 1.35% to 1.49% and R007 exceeding 1.60% due to a lack of buyout reverse repos[1] - As of January 16, the bank's lending scale returned to over 5 trillion yuan, providing some support to the liquidity[3] - The expected liquidity gap for the upcoming tax period is approximately 2 trillion yuan, compounded by 1.1 trillion yuan of public market expirations and 0.25 trillion yuan of government debt payments, totaling over 3.3 trillion yuan[2] Group 2: Market Trends and Projections - The liquidity rates are expected to remain loose, similar to January 2024, due to structural interest rate cuts and a relatively late Spring Festival this year[2] - Historical trends show three liquidity patterns in January: tight (2021, 2025), slight convergence (2023), and relatively loose (2022, 2024)[2] - The central bank is likely to increase liquidity injections during the tax period to maintain market stability, with a reference to a net liquidity injection of about 1.5 trillion yuan in January 2024[3] Group 3: Public Market and Government Debt - From January 19 to 23, a total of 11.015 trillion yuan will expire in the public market, including 9.515 trillion yuan in reverse repos[4] - The estimated net payment for government bonds from January 19 to 23 is 2.465 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous week's -0.485 trillion yuan[8] - The government bond issuance is accelerating, with a planned issuance of 7.066 trillion yuan for the week, compared to 2.818 trillion yuan the previous week[41] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The pressure from maturing interbank certificates of deposit is decreasing, with 6,799 billion yuan maturing from January 19 to 23, down from 8,339 billion yuan the previous week[50] - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit increased to 1.65%, with significant contributions from state-owned and joint-stock banks[48]