1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper first declined and then rose, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. Fundamentally, the TC fee has been running in the negative range, and the supply of copper ore has been tightened due to the shutdown of overseas mining areas. On the supply side, smelter production capacity is expected to be limited, and domestic refined copper supply may decrease. On the demand side, downstream enterprises will gradually resume work after the double festivals, but the purchase intention in the spot market is cautious. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bar has slightly converged. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 85,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 790 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,596 dollars/ton, an increase of 78 dollars. The open interest of the main Shanghai copper contract decreased by 14,285 hands to 201,830 hands. The inventory of LME copper decreased by 75 tons to 139,400 tons, and the LME copper cancelled warrants decreased by 75 tons to 8,350 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,856 tons to 32,890 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 85,045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,635 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 85,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,605 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 54 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 48 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 845 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was - 31.19 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.29 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 275.93 million tons, an increase of 19.92 million tons. The production of refined copper was 130.10 million tons, an increase of 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 485,000 tons, an increase of 55,000 tons. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 75,380 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 1,590 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 76,080 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 1,590 yuan. The processing fee of crude copper in the south increased by 200 yuan to 1,000 yuan/ton, and in the north, it remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper increased by 0.43 million tons to 41.82 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 500 yuan to 59,590 yuan/ton; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai increased by 850 yuan to 73,300 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper increased by 30 yuan to 510 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The production of copper products was 222.19 million tons, an increase of 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 379.576 billion yuan, an increase of 48.079 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,030.919 billion yuan, an increase of 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits decreased by 438,933.60 million pieces to 4,250,287.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper increased by 0.49 percentage points to 21.39%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.26 percentage points to 15.92%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV decreased by 0.0035 percentage points to 21.67%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options increased by 0.03 to 1.35 [2]. 3.7行业消息 - The Fed's September meeting minutes showed that officials were willing to cut interest rates further this year but were cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants thought further policy easing might be appropriate, but most also emphasized the upside risk of inflation expectations. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's plan to impose a 100% tariff on China, stating that it would take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. In September, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.239 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.307 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 17%, with a penetration rate of 58.5%. The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the logistics industry prosperity index in September was 51.2%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The University of Michigan survey showed that the preliminary consumer confidence index in the US in October decreased slightly to 55. The China Automobile Dealers Association expected the car sales in October to exceed those in September [2].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector experienced a significant rise on October 13, with notable increases in stock prices for several banks, amidst concerns over new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese products starting November 1 [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank saw a stock increase of over 6%, while Nanjing Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank rose by more than 4%, and other banks like Shanghai Bank and Qilu Bank increased by approximately 3% [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact Analysis - The new tariffs, announced by U.S. President Trump, could have a controllable overall impact on banks, but regional banks in export-oriented areas may face heightened risks [1] - Major state-owned banks with global operations have an average of 10.5% of their revenue coming from overseas as of June 2025, indicating potential vulnerability to tariff-related uncertainties [1] - Regions with high export-to-GDP ratios, such as the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, may experience significant impacts, affecting financing needs of export-related industries and potentially leading to pressure on local banks' corporate and retail lending as well as asset quality [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may increase global asset price volatility, creating a demand for defensive asset allocations, which could present opportunities for banks [1] - The banking sector's stable dividends, combined with a recent price correction, have improved the attractiveness of dividend yields, likely drawing in risk-averse capital [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods has significantly impacted the global financial and commodity markets, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty [2][3]. - The risk of a resurgence in the China - US tariff war and the potential increase in the supply - demand surplus in the oil market will keep the oil market in a weak and volatile state [2]. - The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains stable, and they may continue to rise as the US signals a willingness to negotiate [3]. - Most commodity markets are under pressure due to trade frictions, but some may have certain support levels or short - term rebounds based on their fundamentals [4][5][8]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices dropped significantly on Friday due to Trump's tariff threat, and although they rebounded slightly on Monday, the Brent price was still 2.4% lower than on Friday afternoon. The oil market will continue to be weak and volatile, mainly due to the risk of the China - US tariff war and potential supply - demand imbalances [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Trump's tariff threat and the progress in the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation have led to concerns about global economic growth and oil demand, putting downward pressure on the fuel oil market. High - sulfur fuel oil may be relatively stronger, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken further [22]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market maintains a tight supply - demand balance. Cost side weakness puts pressure on asphalt, but the cracking spread has rebounded since late September [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: OPEC+ future production increase and the decline in Saudi CP prices have led to a cautious market sentiment. LPG is under pressure in the short term [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The long - term upward logic of precious metals is solid, and they may continue their upward trend as the market liquidity risk decreases [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fell on Friday due to trade tensions. Although large - scale mine supply losses have affected copper concentrate production growth expectations, the impact of new trade risks on macro - sentiment should still be evaluated [4]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff threat caused a significant drop in non - ferrous metals. The aluminum market has a neutral inventory accumulation, and the Shanghai Aluminum price has support around 20,500 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The market is bearish due to the tariff threat. The London Zinc price is under pressure at the 3050 - dollar/ton level, and the Shanghai Zinc market has a supply - surplus situation [8]. - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is high, but the Shanghai Lead price has cost support. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai Nickel price rebounded and then fell back. The market is in a short - term oscillation, and it is not considered a bullish variety [10]. - **Tin**: The London Tin price may fall back to the pre - holiday trading range in the short term [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The implementation of export controls on lithium - related products may affect market risk preferences. With high inventory levels, there is a short - term callback risk [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is stable compared to before the holiday. The industry is facing high - level inventory accumulation, and short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 48,000 - yuan/ton support [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable. The supply is expected to increase in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [14]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea market is weak. Production enterprises have large inventories, and the supply is high. The domestic supply - demand pattern remains loose [25]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market may continue to be weak due to the drop in oil prices and a weak macro - atmosphere. However, the rumored sanctions on Iranian vessels may affect imports [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Facing cost and demand double - negative factors, there is a short - term risk of decline, and the extent of the decline depends on oil prices [27]. - **Styrene**: The international financial market turmoil has increased the bearish sentiment in the styrene market. The price is under pressure due to cost and supply - demand factors [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The market is bearish, with increased inventory after the holiday and a downward - trending price center [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC market may be weak due to high supply and low demand. The caustic soda market has a high - pressure supply situation, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Facing cost and demand double - negative factors, there is a short - term downward risk. The supply - demand situation is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to increased domestic production and high port inventory. The supply - demand situation will weaken in the fourth quarter [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber price may decline due to oil price drops and trade frictions. The bottle - chip demand is expected to weaken after the holiday [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US tariff threat has affected the US soybean market. The domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be supply shortages in the first quarter of next year if the trade relationship deteriorates [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The decline in oil prices has led to a drop in vegetable oil prices. The palm oil market in Malaysia has high inventory, while the Indonesian market is more resilient. In the long - term, oils are expected to be more resilient [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed market is affected by trade expectations. The rapeseed price is under short - term pressure, and the domestic rapeseed futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - **Soybean No.1**: The domestic soybean may be affected by the overseas market in the short - term. Enterprises are starting to purchase new - season soybeans [40]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures are more domestically - oriented. The new - grain listing has led to a decline in corn prices, but the state - owned grain reserve purchase may provide some support [41]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pig**: The pig futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The supply pressure is high in the short - term, but the market may improve in the second half of next year [42]. - **Egg**: The egg price is under downward pressure due to high production capacity and off - season demand. The near - term contracts should be treated with a bearish view, while the contracts for the first half of next year can be considered for long - position allocation [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton demand is expected to be weak. The China - US trade frictions may lead to a decline in both domestic and international cotton prices. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has sufficient supply. The domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good in the 25/26 season, and attention should be paid to weather conditions [45]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price is oscillating at a high level. The new - season apple production is expected to be stable, and the high inventory may put pressure on prices [46]. - **Timber**: The timber market's supply - demand situation has improved. The low - price spot provides an opportunity for long - position allocation [47]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price has reached a new low. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market is under pressure due to trade frictions and geopolitical issues. Short - term strategies can be adjusted according to market conditions, such as using far - month contracts for long - position allocation or near - month contracts for hedging [49]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The 10 - month liquidity gap is controllable, and the bond market is expected to gradually recover. The yield curve is expected to steepen [50].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. will impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, which is an additional tax on top of existing tariffs, in response to China's new export control measures on rare earth minerals [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - President Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods effective November 1, which is in addition to current tariffs [1]. - The tariff increase is a direct response to China's recent export control measures on rare earth minerals [3]. Group 2: Export Control Measures - Trump indicated that the U.S. will also implement export controls on "all critical software" starting on the same date [1]. - The announcement followed China's claim of implementing large-scale export controls on nearly all products they produce, effective November 1, 2025 [3]. Group 3: Context of the Announcement - The tariff increase was framed as a retaliation against China's unprecedented stance on export controls [3]. - Trump's statement emphasized that the U.S. is acting independently, representing its own interests rather than those of other affected countries [3].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. will impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025, as a response to China's new export controls on rare earth minerals, in addition to existing tariffs [1]. Group 1 - The announcement of the new tariffs comes after President Trump threatened to significantly increase tariffs on Chinese goods due to China's recent export control measures [1]. - Trump stated that the new tariffs would be applied to nearly all products produced in China, including some non-Chinese manufactured products [1]. - Alongside the tariffs, the U.S. will implement export controls on all critical software starting on the same date [1].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is currently in a shutdown due to the Senate's failure to pass temporary funding bills, with the last vote resulting in 45 votes for and 50 against [2] - Approximately 750,000 federal employees are expected to be furloughed, and some public services may be suspended or delayed as a result of the shutdown [2][3] - The White House has instructed government agencies to implement their "orderly shutdown" plans, with certain departments like the military and law enforcement remaining unaffected [3] Group 2 - Brazilian President Lula requested the U.S. to eliminate a 40% tariff on Brazilian products during a phone call with President Trump, who appointed Secretary of State Rubio to continue negotiations [6] - Lula emphasized that U.S. sanctions against Brazilian officials are unjust, and he reaffirmed Brazil's judicial independence during discussions with Trump [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is currently in a shutdown, which has not occurred for nearly seven years, affecting approximately 750,000 federal employees who will be furloughed, with some public services potentially suspended or delayed [2][3]. - The Senate has repeatedly failed to pass temporary funding bills, with the latest vote resulting in 45 votes for and 50 against, leading to the continuation of the government shutdown [3]. - The White House has instructed government agencies to implement their "orderly shutdown" plans, with certain departments like the military and law enforcement remaining unaffected [3]. Group 2 - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on medium and heavy trucks imported to the U.S. from other countries, effective November 1, 2025, following a previous announcement of a similar tariff on heavy trucks starting October 1 [1]. - Brazilian President Lula requested the U.S. to eliminate a 40% tariff on Brazilian products during a phone call with President Trump, who appointed Secretary of State Rubio to continue negotiations [1][5]. - Lula and Trump agreed to hold an in-person meeting soon, potentially in Malaysia, to further discuss trade relations [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices continued their strong performance, with international gold and silver prices hitting new highs. The US inflation data released on Friday met market expectations, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cuts later this year, leading to a sharp rise in precious metal prices on Friday [2][5]. - The US core PCE price index in August rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, not hindering the Fed's rate - cut rhythm. The FedWatch tool shows an 88% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% probability in December. There is increasing divergence among Fed officials on monetary policy [2][5]. - Overall, against the backdrop of inflation meeting expectations, the Fed maintaining a loose stance, and the imposition of new tariffs, gold is expected to remain strong. Silver is in a catch - up rally and may challenge historical highs. However, with the upcoming domestic holiday, there is a need to be wary of sharp fluctuations in overseas prices during the holiday [2][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE gold closed at 856.06 yuan/gram, up 25.50 yuan (3.07%), with a total trading volume of 264,305 lots and a total open interest of 178,255 lots [3]. - Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 852.90 yuan/gram, up 12.97 yuan (1.54%), with a total trading volume of 50,644 lots and a total open interest of 211,162 lots [3]. - COMEX gold closed at $3,789.80 per ounce, up $70.40 (1.89%) [3]. - SHFE silver closed at 10,632 yuan/kg, up 661 yuan (6.63%), with a total trading volume of 522,479 lots and a total open interest of 634,627 lots [3]. - Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 10,551 yuan/kg, up 308 yuan (3.01%), with a total trading volume of 698,132 lots and a total open interest of 3,354,936 lots [3]. - COMEX silver closed at $46.37 per ounce, up $3.00 (6.92%) [3]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The US core PCE price index in August rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, not hindering the Fed's rate - cut rhythm. The probability of a rate cut in October is 88%, and 65% in December [5]. - There is increasing divergence among Fed officials on monetary policy. New Fed理事Milan advocates rapid rate cuts, while理事鲍曼 and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also support rate cuts under certain conditions [6]. - Trump announced new tariffs on imported drugs, heavy trucks, and furniture starting from October 1st, further boosting risk - aversion sentiment [6]. - Gold is expected to remain strong, and silver is in a catch - up rally and may challenge historical highs. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and ADP employment data, China and US September PMI, and eurozone HICP data this week, as well as Fed officials' speeches and other events [6][7]. 3. Important Data Information - The Fed's preferred core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous value [9]. - US consumer spending in August increased 0.4% after inflation adjustment, exceeding the expected 0.2% [9]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52, in line with expectations, while the service and composite PMIs were lower than expected and at three - month lows [9]. - The preliminary value of the eurozone September Manufacturing PMI was 49.5, below the boom - bust line, while the service PMI rose above expectations [9]. - The final value of the US September University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was 55.1, at a four - month low, and inflation expectations were slightly lower [9]. - The US Q2 GDP final value annualized quarterly growth rate was 3.8%, up from 3.3%, the fastest in nearly two years, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [10]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest since mid - July, while the number of continued claims decreased slightly to 1.926 million [10]. - US new home sales in August were 800,000 units, far exceeding expectations, with a 20.5% month - on - month increase, and the inventory of new homes for sale was at the lowest level this year [10]. - The US and the EU finalized a tariff agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts from August 1st, and exempting some products from September 1st [10]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - The total gold holdings of ETFs as of September 26, 2025, were 1,005.72 tons, an increase of 11.16 tons from last week, 43.22 tons from last month, and 133.78 tons from last year. The silver holdings of iShares were 15,361.84 tons, an increase of 156.70 tons from last week, 87.14 tons from last month, and 725.58 tons from last year [12]. - As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in gold futures were 266,749 contracts, an increase of 339 contracts from last week, and in silver futures were 52,276 contracts, an increase of 738 contracts from last week [13]. - The report also includes various charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, and correlations of precious metals, as well as the relationships between gold prices and other economic indicators such as the US dollar, copper, inflation expectations, and bond yields [15][16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has imposed a 50% tariff on goods imported from India, significantly impacting the Indian economy and its exporters [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The tariff increase places India in the highest tax rate bracket alongside Brazil, making Indian goods approximately 30% more expensive overnight [1] - Exports worth around 420 billion rupees, including gems, engineering products, textiles, seafood, and leather, are affected, potentially reducing India's economic growth by 0.5 to 1 percentage points [1] - A large number of workers are at risk of unemployment due to the tariff [1] Group 2: Industry Response - Exporters are forced to lower prices or extend credit, leading to tight cash flow, particularly affecting small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - The industry is calling for the Indian government to extend interest subsidies, restart market development funds, and accelerate free trade negotiations with countries like Japan, the UK, Australia, and the EU [1] Group 3: Economic Recommendations - Economists suggest short-term subsidies to maintain orders, mid-term strategies to diversify markets, and long-term reforms in land and labor to enhance competitiveness [1]

林剑表示，中方在乌克兰危机问题上一贯秉持客观公正立场。中国不是这场危机的制造者，也不是当事方。我们坚决反对动辄拿中国说事，坚决反 对对中方施加所谓的经济压力。 据北京日报，9月10日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。 彭博社记者提问，据报道，美国总统特朗普亲口对欧洲官员表示，为了迫使俄罗斯总统普京与乌克兰谈判，他愿意对印度和中国大幅加征关税，但 前提是欧盟也得这么做。发言人对此有何评论？ ...