（文章来源：第一财经） 美国总统特朗普：我们将对芯片和半导体加征约100%的关税。 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 据报道，特朗普将对印度商品额外加征25%关税。 ...

本周锌价震荡下行。供应端，8月国产TC较7月上涨100元/吨，进口TC继续上升。8月冶炼端增量进一步兑现。需求 端，内需季节性走弱，除上海外现货大部分转贴水;海外，欧洲需求一般，但部分炼厂因为加工费问题生产有一定阳 力，现货升贴水小幅提高。国内，社库震荡上升。海外LME库存5月后震荡去化，持仓集中度高位下降。策略方面，短 期，建议观望关注商品情绪持续性，注意仓位管理，可适当逢高空配;内外方面，内外正套可继续持有;月差方面，可留 意月间正套机会。 镍 ： 日期 1.5菲律宾镍矿 高镍铁 沪镍现货 金川升贴水 俄镍升贴水 2025/07/30 58.0 - 120950 2100 300 2025/07/31 58.0 - 119050 2200 300 2025/08/01 58.0 - 118650 2250 350 2025/08/04 58.0 - 119150 2350 350 2025/08/05 57.0 - 120000 2250 350 变化 -1.0 - 850 -100 0 日期 现货进口收益 期货进口收益 保税库premium LME C-3M LME库存 LME注销仓单 2025/07/ ...

锡 ： 日期 现货进口收益 现货出口收益 锡持仓 LME C-3M LME库存 LME注销仓单 2025/07/29 -18866.43 -18168.11 52135 11 1855 505 2025/07/30 -15730.44 -20986.82 51663 -7 1945 580 | 2025/07/29 | -18866.43 | -18168.11 | 52135 | 11 | 1855 | 505 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/30 | -15730.44 | -20986.82 | 51663 | -7 | 1945 | 580 | | 2025/07/31 | -12318.38 | -23691.25 | 49644 | -16 | 1945 | 580 | | 2025/08/01 | -18781.98 | -18020.23 | 49454 | -1 | 1950 | 535 | | 2025/08/04 | -15533.72 | -20919.14 | 49437 | -39 | 1900 | 5 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/08/04 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/28 95 435 73423 17832 -615.05 64.47 50.0 65.0 -54.34 127400 17275 2025/07/29 110 385 73423 18083 -398.80 268.30 50.0 61.0 -51.71 127625 19400 2025/07/30 170 528 73423 19973 -736.08 -40.92 49.0 60.0 -46.80 136850 19375 2025/07/31 170 176 73423 19622 -286.39 322.14 49.0 60.0 -50.76 138200 16975 2025/08/01 170 153 72543 20349 -18.16 558.11 51.0 64.0 -49.25 141750 14275 变化 0 -23 -8 ...

【环球网报道】综合美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)、英国广播公司（BBC）的报道，加拿大商会总裁兼首 席执行官坎达丝·莱恩当地时间7月31日抨击美国总统特朗普对加拿大加征关税的决定，称其上调关税的 理由"没有事实依据"。 7月31日稍早，特朗普签署行政令，将对加拿大的关税税率从25%上调至35%。这一更高税率将于当地 时间8月1日正式生效。白宫提到，征收新关税的部分原因是加拿大在打击芬太尼从加拿大流入美国问题 上"不作为"。 对于美方加征关税的理由，莱恩在一份声明中表示，相关说法"没有事实依据"。声明称，更多没有事实 根据的关税动荡不会促进北美的经济安全。加拿大和美国的企业迫切需要确定性。 7月31日，特朗普接受美国全国广播公司（NBC）电话采访时表示，他愿意与加拿大继续进行贸易谈 判。 早在7月10日晚，卡尼就曾在社交媒体发文回应美方宣布自8月1日起对加拿大商品加征35%关税的决 定。卡尼表示，将在与美国的谈判中，继续捍卫加拿大工人和企业的利益，并努力在截止日期前达成协 议。他还表示将加强与世界各地贸易伙伴的关系，以应对美方关税威胁。 ...

有高级官员就欧盟与美国贸易协议表示，美国和欧盟就对药品加征15%的关税达成一致。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, announced that the deadline for imposing additional tariffs on August 1 will not be extended, indicating a firm stance from the U.S. government [1] - The negotiations between the U.S. and the EU aim to open European markets for U.S. exports, with the key issue being whether the EU's proposed agreement is sufficient to persuade President Trump to abandon the 30% tariff threat [1] - The EU has warned that if a satisfactory trade agreement is not reached before the August 1 deadline, it will implement countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, with potential measures set to take effect on August 7 [1] Group 2 - In 2024, the total goods trade between the U.S. and the EU is projected to be approximately $975.9 billion, which is higher than trade with any other single economy [2] - The U.S. trade deficit with the EU for goods in 2024 is expected to be $235.6 billion, reflecting a 12.9% increase from the previous year [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S. tariffs on the export chain and the manufacturing sector, particularly focusing on companies with overseas production bases in Southeast Asia [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Positive Developments in U.S.-China Trade Relations** There have been substantial discussions leading to significant progress in U.S.-China trade relations, with expectations of a joint statement to be released soon, indicating a generally positive outlook for the export chain [1]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs on Domestic and Overseas Manufacturers** Most companies have established robust overseas production bases, particularly in Southeast Asia, which mitigates the impact of U.S. tariffs. This has led to a normalization of shipping schedules and even an acceleration of orders for high-quality supply chains [2][3]. 3. **Tariff Burden Distribution** The initial 20% tariffs imposed have largely been absorbed by downstream clients rather than domestic manufacturers, with manufacturers only bearing a minimal portion of the costs [3]. 4. **Inventory Levels in Downstream Clients** Downstream clients currently hold about three to four months of inventory, which buffers against immediate impacts from shipping delays. This inventory level suggests that short-term disruptions may not significantly affect demand [4]. 5. **Price Adjustments in Retail** Retailers have begun to pass on tariff costs to consumers through gradual price increases, which cumulatively may lead to a noticeable rise in consumer prices and inflation levels [6]. 6. **Long-term Outlook for Manufacturing Sector** The light manufacturing industry, being labor-intensive, is unlikely to fully return to the U.S. Instead, it is expected to promote further overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Mexico, enhancing the resilience of leading companies [8]. 7. **Investment Opportunities in Resilient Companies** Companies with established overseas supply chains, such as Cangxin, Jiayi, and others, are expected to recover from current valuation dips due to their strong market positions and customer dependencies [9][10]. 8. **Sector-Specific Insights** Certain sectors, like insulated cups and pet care, are experiencing significant price increases, with some products seeing price multipliers of up to 7 times. Companies in these sectors are recommended for investor attention due to their lower sensitivity to tariff changes [10]. 9. **Focus on Companies with Low U.S. Exposure** Companies with minimal exposure to the U.S. market, such as Zhiyou Technology, which derives 60% of its revenue from Europe, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strategic supply chain migrations [11]. Additional Important Content - The overall sentiment from the call indicates a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of the export chain and the manufacturing sector, with ongoing monitoring of tariff negotiations and their implications for global economic conditions [6][7]. - The call concluded with an invitation for investors to stay updated on specific company fundamentals and market developments in subsequent reports [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for each individual energy and chemical product, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Asphalt: Oscillating [2] - Polyester: Oscillating [2][4] - Rubber: Oscillating [4] - Methanol: Oscillating [5] - Polyolefin: Oscillating [5] - Polyvinyl chloride: Oscillating [5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are affected by factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes, and are expected to continue oscillating [1]. - The fuel oil market is mainly driven by the cost - end crude oil, with the LU - FU spread reaching a high level this year, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity [2]. - The asphalt market is affected by supply and demand factors and follows the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - The polyester market is under pressure due to factors such as weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation [4]. - The rubber market is affected by export volume and production, and is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - The methanol market is expected to return to an oscillating trend due to factors such as device load and downstream profit [5]. - The polyolefin market has limited supply changes, and demand is at the bottom, with prices expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - The PVC market has limited fundamental changes, and the upward rebound space is not large [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. API data showed an increase in US crude oil and refined product inventories. Trump's tariff measures may suppress oil prices. However, domestic energy production and processing have positive trends, and oil prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil fell. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market remained stable. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for oscillation, and attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the LU - FU spread [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell slightly. The adjustment of the fuel oil and diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policy has not yet shown an impact. Supply has decreased, and demand has support. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of PTA, EG, and PX futures fell. The downstream demand is weak, the inventory of polyester factories is increasing, and the prices of polyester products are under pressure [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of some rubber varieties fluctuated. The rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire increased in the first half of 2025, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is affected by factors such as device load and downstream profit, and is expected to return to an oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin products are affected by supply and demand. Supply changes are limited, demand is at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: The PVC market price has a narrow - range adjustment. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated further, and the upward rebound space is limited [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on July 16, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on most imported goods from the EU and Mexico starting from August 1, which may suppress global fuel demand and oil prices [1][9]. - API data shows that as of the week of July 11, US API crude oil and refined product inventories increased [1][9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It includes the basis charts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., showing the basis changes over time [29][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., reflecting the price differences between different contract periods [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as the spread between crude oil internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit chart of PP, etc. [70]