年末将至，A股上市银行板块调研热度持续攀升。 数据显示，截至12月11日，四季度以来已有17家上市银行共获得308家机构调研，累计调研总次数达312 次。从调研标的来看，城商行与农商行占据绝对主力。其中，杭州银行（600926）凭借最多的调研机构 家数成为"人气王"。 从投资者关系活动记录来看，上市银行2025年全年及2026年的净息差走势、资产质量变化趋势，成为机 构重点关注的核心议题。 城商行与农商行 受机构关注 从机构调研聚焦的话题来看，资产质量与净息差变化趋势成为高频关键词。 在利率市场化持续推进的背景下，机构着重关注银行在负债成本管控、生息资产结构优化等方面的具体 举措。多家银行透露，净息差已显现阶段性企稳迹象，对于本年度及未来的走势，普遍表达了乐观预 期。 例如，杭州银行表示，在整体市场利率下行的背景下，银行息差水平预计仍处于下降通道，但受益于负 债成本的有效管控，该行息差降幅预计将呈现逐渐收窄态势。从数据来看，该行三季度末净息差较二季 度末环比企稳，全年息差降幅边际呈现收窄趋势。该行未来将积极通过优化资产负债结构、降低付息成 本、加强客户综合化运营等方式，将息差保持在合理水平。 苏州银行称，今年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of phasing out five-year deposits indicates the end of an era where banks relied on high-interest, long-term deposits for easy profits, signaling a shift in the banking landscape [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Five-Year Deposits - Five-year deposits have been a staple since the establishment of the banking system in New China [2]. - In the early 1990s, five-year deposit rates peaked at 13.9%, allowing significant interest earnings [3][4]. - The economic environment during that time was characterized by high growth and inflation, leading to a strong demand for bank loans [6][7]. Group 2: Current Banking Environment - The current financial landscape has shifted to an "asset shortage" era, where there is an abundance of money but a scarcity of viable investment opportunities [11]. - Banks are facing dual challenges: declining interest rates and a decrease in loan demand from both individuals and businesses [13]. - The low-interest environment is expected to persist, affecting the viability of long-term, high-yield deposit products [14]. Group 3: Changes in Investment Products - The availability of safe investment options like deposits, government bonds, and insurance products is diminishing, with yields decreasing significantly [21][23]. - Trust products, once favored by wealthy individuals, are facing a crisis due to defaults linked to the real estate sector [25]. - Bank wealth management products have transitioned to a net value model, requiring investors to accept the risk of potential losses [27]. Group 4: Global Comparisons and Strategies - In mature markets, the trend is towards shorter deposit terms, with banks encouraging shorter-term savings [17][18]. - The U.S. and Japan have seen their citizens adapt to low-interest environments by shifting investments towards equities and other assets [35][46]. - Japanese citizens have historically maintained a high proportion of savings in deposits, but this has limited their investment opportunities [46]. Group 5: Future Investment Strategies - With the end of the "no-risk, high-yield" era, investors must either accept higher risks or find alternative ways to secure current interest rates [32][33]. - Strategies from other countries, such as embracing equity investments or utilizing savings insurance to lock in rates, may offer insights for domestic investors [35][45]. - The current environment suggests that long-term savings insurance products may still provide reasonable returns, but investors should be cautious about liquidity needs [56][58].

银行把起存门槛从20万抬到100万，是把"大额存单"玩成了什么把戏，消费者是被尊重了，还是被排斥了。 奇怪吗，不奇怪，因为另一个事实摆在眼前，之前那个三年期二十万起存的产品，也是1.55%，三年期普通定期，起存仅50元， 利率顶多也到1.55%，换句话说，存100万、存20万、存50元，表面上并无利差，差别只剩门槛和身份认同感。 这不是奇谋，这是负债端的优化，苏商银行特约研究员薛洪言说得直白，银行是在主动管理负债，通过把起存门槛抬高，减少 高成本存款的规模，从而降低总体负债成本，听起来专业，听着也冷静，背后是银行在做一种算术题——成本要管住，利润要 保住，股东要交差。 那小老百姓怎么办，真是无解吗，不全是，薛洪言还提醒，既然期限利率相同，那么大额存单的亮点就剩流动性和灵活性，比 如可以转让、可以质押，这适合有短期资金调度需求的大额储户，但听着也刺耳，换言之，如果你只是想把钱放着保值，普通 定期已足够，别被"高大上"的名字忽悠了。 说人话银行把产品包装成贵族社群，可底色是市场利率向下，利润空间被压缩，银行只能在负债端做手脚，结果是供应被人为 稀释，普通人被动退出，财富进入另一条更窄的通道，这条通道是谁受益？显然 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 另一方面，将币值稳定与金融稳定确立为并列首要目标，并通过"双支柱"框架 为其提供工具和制度支撑。我们预计未来一段时间，可以预期宏观审慎体系的重 构大致会沿着目标、工具与机制三条主线展开，与首要目标调整形成自上而下的 闭环：其一，在目标层面，从防个案风险走向统筹系统性稳定； 其二，在工具层面，从强化 MPA 约束走向宏观审慎工具箱系统化，特别是对股 市、债市、汇市的关注度明显上升，其中在股票市场方面，在两项支持资本市场 稳定发展的货币政策工具加持下，中央汇金的"类平准基金"呈现"平准化"特 征，其逆周期功能显著增强，这也意味着未来市场仍有趋势和波动，但尾部风险 被显著削弱，中长期资金的参与意愿和持有稳定性有望明显提升，这是我们在 "十五五"期间保持长期看多中国权益市场的关键逻辑之一； 其三，在机制层面，从临时救火走向常态化预期管理和应急安排。 展望央行宏观审慎政策体系的重塑，我们认为需要重点把握两条主线：一是与金 融市场运行直接相关的宏观审慎安排重构；二是几项方向已较为明晰、具有一定 确定性的制度改革，如 MPA 体系重构、系统重要性机构扩围等。 如何建立"金融强国 ...

"昨天刚收到的通知，现在只有3年期大额存单了，广州所有网点5年期的都已经取消。"12月3日，某国 有大行网点客户经理在接受南都湾财社记者采访时直言。 五年期大额存单集体"隐身"？记者查询工商银行、农业银行等六大国有行APP及官网发现，曾是储户长 期理财首选的五年期大额存单已集体下架，仅剩的三年期产品利率普遍回落至1.55%左右，且不同产品 设置了20万元、100万元乃至500万元的分级准入门槛，部分热门额度已显示"售罄"。这一集体动作背 后，是银行业净息差持续收窄的行业性压力。 从额度紧张到彻底消失？ 六大国有行5年期大额存单集体下架 曾被银行业视为稳存揽储"压舱石"的大额存单，正迎来长期限产品的集中退场。 在利率市场化持续深化、银行净息差承压的行业背景下，南都湾财社记者近日登陆工商银行、农业银 行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行、邮储银行六大国有行官方APP查询核实，5年期大额存单已全面 从线上在售产品列表中"下架"，核心供给集中于3年期及以下期限。 具体来看，工商银行"大额存单"栏目下仅保留1个月、3个月、6个月、1年、2年、3年六个期限选项，其 中3年期产品年利率为1.55%，1年期、2年期产品利率统一降 ...

进入12月，调整进一步延伸至国有大行，工商银行、农业银行等六大行已集体下架五年期大额存单，五 年期普通定存利率也普遍与三年期形成倒挂。这一从中小银行蔓延至全国性银行的调整趋势，清晰折射 出银行业在净息差持续收窄压力下，通过主动优化负债结构、缓解利率风险的迫切需求。 当习惯了"锁定长期限享受高息"的储户发现，银行货架上的长期存款产品悄然减少时，这场始于负债端 的结构调整，正在更深层次地推动中国银行业经营逻辑与金融生态的持续演变。 意见领袖 | 薛洪言 近期，国内商业银行正掀起一轮存款产品结构调整浪潮。11月初，内蒙古两家村镇银行率先下调利率并 取消了五年期定存；随后，吉林亿联银行、中关村银行等民营银行也集中下架了三年期及以上存款产 品。同期，湖北荆门农商银行发行的大额存款产品也已不再提供五年期选项。 银行为何主动告别长期高息负债？ 从资产负债匹配的角度看，当前信贷投放更侧重于支持实体经济的中短期周转需求，这使得长期限负债 的运用效率下降，容易产生期限错配风险。加之利率市场化使得资金价格波动更为直接，银行持有大量 固定利率的长期负债，会在利率变动时陷入被动。因此，缩短负债久期成为银行管理利率风险、增强资 产负债表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of banks reducing or eliminating long-term deposit options, particularly five-year fixed deposits, due to the pressure of low loan interest rates and the need to maintain profitability in a challenging economic environment [5][29]. Group 1: Bank Practices and Profitability - Banks are increasingly unable to offer competitive long-term deposit rates, with five-year deposits now yielding only 2.5%, lower than the three-year rate of 2.7% [5][10]. - The concept of "net interest margin" is highlighted, where banks earn profit from the difference between loan interest and deposit interest. However, with declining loan rates, banks face squeezed profit margins [7][8]. - The reduction of long-term deposits is described as a necessary response to the financial pressures banks are experiencing, as maintaining high-interest long-term deposits becomes unsustainable [10][29]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with many individuals preferring to store their money in fixed deposits rather than riskier investments like funds or stocks, driven by a desire for stability in uncertain economic times [10][12]. - The article notes that consumers are increasingly opting for longer-term deposits, which complicates banks' liquidity management, as they must be prepared for potential withdrawals [13][29]. - The article emphasizes that the traditional approach of relying on long-term deposits for passive income is becoming less viable, as interest rates continue to decline [17][29]. Group 3: Policy and Market Trends - The central bank's push for "interest rate marketization" has led to a decrease in deposit interest rates, particularly for long-term deposits, as part of broader efforts to lower financing costs for businesses [15][29]. - The article suggests that low interest rates may become the norm, indicating that consumers should adapt their savings strategies accordingly [29]. - New banking products, such as "flexible term deposits," are being introduced to provide consumers with more options while allowing banks to manage costs effectively [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) disappearing from the market is evident, with major banks removing five-year CDs and some private banks discontinuing all terms of large CDs [1][2][4]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - Major state-owned banks and national joint-stock banks have removed five-year large CDs from their mobile banking and official websites [2]. - The remaining large CDs available are primarily short-term, with most banks offering only three-month, six-month, or one-year products [3]. - Some private banks still offer high-interest CDs above 2%, but these are limited in availability and sell out quickly [4]. Group 2: Reasons for Discontinuation - The primary reason for banks discontinuing long-term large CDs is to alleviate the increasing pressure on net interest margins [4]. - As loan rates decline to support the real economy, banks' asset yields have decreased, making high-cost liabilities from large CDs less favorable [4]. - Reducing long-term, high-cost liabilities helps banks optimize their liability structure and manage interest rate risks in a declining rate environment [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Large CDs will not completely disappear, but their market role and form are changing significantly, with a shift towards shorter-term offerings [5]. - The interest rate advantage of large CDs is expected to diminish, aligning more closely with regular fixed-term deposits [5]. - The long-term trend in the deposit market indicates a downward trajectory for interest rates, driven by monetary policy and banks' efforts to reduce funding costs [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued 45 billion offshore RMB central bank bills, marking a record single issuance for the year, interpreted as a measure to stabilize the RMB exchange rate and counteract short-selling activities in the offshore market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Bills and Market Impact - The issuance of 45 billion RMB central bank bills removed nearly 5% of RMB liquidity from the offshore market, significantly increasing short-term funding costs, with the 3-month HIBOR rising by 106 basis points to 4.56% [3]. - The operation sent a clear policy signal that the central bank will not allow a unilateral depreciation of the RMB, with historical data indicating potential appreciation of 0.8% to 1.2% within a month following similar past issuances [4]. - Following the issuance, the short positions in offshore RMB decreased by 37%, reaching the lowest level since 2022, indicating a strong deterrent effect on short-selling activities [5]. Group 2: Policy Implications and Strategic Goals - The PBOC aims to enhance the international appeal of RMB assets by regularly issuing central bank bills, with RMB bond issuance in Hong Kong increasing by 48% year-on-year [6]. - The central bank's approach balances short-term stability with long-term flexibility, as evidenced by a reduction in the volatility of the CFETS RMB exchange rate index [7]. - The dual-track system for bill issuance, requiring institutions to submit trading strategies, aims to prevent malicious short-selling, while enhanced monitoring of abnormal fund flows has led to a significant increase in the detection of illegal forex trading cases [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Effects - Export companies are experiencing reduced foreign exchange risk, with a 1% appreciation of the RMB potentially increasing annual profits by approximately 12 million RMB [9]. - The offshore RMB funding pool has expanded to over 1.8 trillion RMB, with new financial products attracting significant investment [10]. - Foreign capital inflows into A-shares have accelerated, with net purchases exceeding 90 billion RMB in November alone, driven by a stabilized RMB exchange rate [11]. Group 4: Global Perspective and Future Outlook - The PBOC has developed a unique policy toolkit to manage exchange rates, contrasting with traditional methods used by other central banks [12]. - China is navigating the "impossible trinity" of capital mobility, exchange rate stability, and monetary policy independence through offshore central bank bills [12]. - Predictions suggest that the RMB exchange rate will stabilize within a range of 7.15 to 7.25 against the USD by the end of 2025, with potential challenges to the 7.0 mark if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates [13]. - The completion of deposit rate marketization reforms by 2026 is expected to enhance the pricing power of RMB assets [13]. - The expansion of digital RMB cross-border payment trials may create a new paradigm for exchange rate stability tools [14].

Core Insights - Private banks have achieved a net interest margin of 3.83% in Q3 2025, significantly higher than other types of banks, with a net profit of 15.1 billion yuan [1][4] - However, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for private banks has risen to 1.83%, indicating increasing credit risk [1][4] Financial Performance - Private banks' net profit for the first three quarters reached 15.1 billion yuan, with an asset return rate of 0.89% [1][4] - The NPL ratio for private banks increased from 1.76% in Q1 to 1.83% in Q3, reflecting a growing risk profile [1][4][5] - The balance of non-performing loans rose from 24.1 billion yuan in Q1 to 25.3 billion yuan in Q3 [6] Capital and Risk Management - Private banks have a capital adequacy ratio of 12.14%, which is lower than other bank types, limiting their asset expansion capabilities [7] - The provision coverage ratio for private banks improved to 219.37% in Q3 from 215.95% in Q1 [7] - Liquidity ratio increased from 56.92% in Q1 to 64.31% in Q3, indicating better liquidity management [8] Competitive Strategies - Private banks are exploring three differentiated development paths: - Technology-driven models like WeBank and MYbank, focusing on online services [9] - Ecosystem-synergistic banks like Suning Bank, integrating with shareholder industries [10] - Regionally focused banks like Meizhou Commercial Bank, serving local industries [11] Future Challenges - The deepening of interest rate marketization will narrow the interest margin, requiring a shift from high-margin models to service fee-based models [13] - Increasing regulatory compliance requirements will impose stricter constraints on private banks [13] - Continuous pressure for technology investment, particularly in AI, poses challenges for smaller private banks [13] Strategic Transformation - Private banks need to transition from scale expansion to quality improvement, diversify profit sources, and enhance risk management precision [14] - Balancing profitability and inclusiveness is essential for private banks to establish a unique position in the multi-tiered financial system [15]