Core Viewpoint - The trend of lowering deposit rates and the cancellation of additional benefits by private banks indicates a shrinking space for "profit-sharing" in the deposit sector, leading to challenges in maintaining stable liability structures and profitability [1][4]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Private banks have been continuously lowering deposit rates, with recent announcements such as Anhui Xin'an Bank reducing its 3-month deposit rate from 1.45% to 1.25% [2]. - The cancellation or reduction of additional benefits like deposit points and interest coupons has become common, reflecting a broader trend of diminishing deposit "welfare" [2][3]. - Analysts note that the withdrawal of subsidy-type arrangements has led to a significant decline in the overall returns of deposit products [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Despite the recent reductions in deposit rates, private banks still maintain a slight advantage over state-owned banks, with some private banks offering rates between 1.6% and 1.8% compared to state-owned banks' rates below 1.5% [3]. - However, this interest rate advantage is diminishing due to stricter regulations and rising liability costs, leading to a narrowing of the interest rate gap between private and state-owned banks [3][4]. Group 3: Liability Challenges - Private banks face complex pressures on their liabilities, with a net interest margin of 3.83% reported for the first three quarters of 2025, which is higher than that of state-owned banks [4]. - The overall decline in market interest rates limits the ability of private banks to attract deposits through high-interest offerings, while regulatory constraints on innovative deposit products further weaken their competitive edge [5]. - Increased sensitivity among customers regarding the stability of small and medium-sized banks poses additional challenges for private banks in retaining and attracting deposits [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging environment for commercial banks in China, with a focus on the narrowing net interest margin (NIM) and profitability under a low interest rate regime [2]. Core Insights - The net interest margin of Chinese commercial banks has been declining, reaching 1.42% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable "inversion" between NIM and non-performing loan rates, posing significant challenges to the traditional profit model reliant on interest rate spreads [2][7]. - Leading banks are adjusting their asset-liability structures to stabilize and potentially recover NIM, while regulatory bodies are enhancing guidance through self-regulatory mechanisms and policy tools to maintain reasonable NIM levels [2][34]. - The report anticipates that the rate of decline in NIM may slow, but some banks may still experience low or negative NIM, necessitating ongoing attention to their long-term profitability and credit quality [2][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Definition of Net Interest Margin - Net interest margin (NIM) is a key indicator of bank profitability, reflecting the ability to earn net interest income through core operations, influenced by asset pricing, liability costs, and the structure of assets and liabilities [4]. 2. Current Status and Influencing Factors of NIM - Since 2015, China's commercial banks have experienced two significant downward cycles in NIM, with a cumulative decline of approximately 100 basis points from around 2.5% to about 1.42% by mid-2025 [6][7]. - Factors affecting NIM include declining LPR rates, increased competition, and changes in loan structures, leading to lower interest income and profitability [10][18]. 3. Short-term Responses of Commercial Banks - In response to low NIM, banks are focusing on enhancing asset yields, reducing liability costs, and expanding non-interest income to stabilize overall profitability [30]. - Banks are increasing their allocation to financial assets and enhancing bond trading capabilities, with financial assets constituting 31.25% of total assets by mid-2025 [31]. - Efforts to lower liability costs include adjusting deposit structures and rates, optimizing funding sources, and managing high-cost products [32][33]. 4. Conclusion and Outlook - The narrowing of NIM is a result of both cyclical and structural factors, posing core challenges to traditional profit models [34]. - The report suggests that banks with strong pricing capabilities, stable low-cost funding, and diversified income structures are likely to navigate the cycle successfully, while others may face ongoing pressure on NIM and profitability [35].

金融市场迈向成熟之路 作者 | 胜马财经 李察 编辑 | 欧阳文 2026年开年，中国银行业迎来标志性变化——国有大行1个月、3个月期大额存单利率率先跌破1%，定格在0.9% 的"0字头"区间，中小银行同步跟进，中长期产品近乎绝迹，一时间引发热议。 胜马财经注意到，这一现象并非短期波动，而是多重因素叠加的必然结果，既源于商业银行净息差持续承压下的 负债成本管控需求，也呼应了央行结构性降息引导融资成本下行的政策导向。而这一变化对银行经营、居民理财 及实体经济影响深远，也揭示了中国金融市场低利率常态化进程中的新趋势。 "0字头"利率成行业常态 利率下行的同时，大额存单产品结构呈现"短期化、高门槛、少长期"的鲜明特征。从期限来看，市场供给向短期 集中，多数银行主打1年期及以下品种：招商银行仅提供2年期以内产品，建设银行则仅有1年期及以下产品可供选 择，中国银行虽保留3年期产品，但供给量锐减，5年期产品已近乎绝迹，国有大行更是全面下架5年期大额存单。 为平衡成本与客户需求，部分银行推出高门槛产品进行客户分层。工商银行一款年利率1.55%的3年期大额存单， 起存门槛设定为100万元且迅速售罄；农业银行更出现500万元起 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The People's Bank of China's "Three - Target System" monetary policy framework aims to maintain exchange rate stability, price stability, and promote economic growth. In 2026, the implementation of monetary policy and liquidity injection methods are restricted, and the central bank needs to balance the degree of easing [6]. - The adjustment of the real estate market and debt resolution have led to an endogenous contraction of credit financing demand. The goal of monetary policy has shifted to preventing the spread of real estate market risks and local debt risks, and a "moderately loose" orientation has been established [2][29]. - In 2026, open - market net purchases of treasury bonds and reserve requirement ratio cuts may be considered as liquidity injection tools. It is expected that there may be one 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026 if the net interest margin of commercial banks stabilizes, and the third and fourth quarters may be good time windows. There may be 1 - 2 comprehensive interest rate cuts, each with a 10BP reduction [3][34]. - In the stock market in 2026, high - tech sectors such as semiconductors and commercial aviation under the logic of self - controllability, as well as cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals, are expected to perform well [37]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the TL contract has recovered. Attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities at the ultra - long end. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish in the medium term, and strategies such as hedging on rallies, seizing opportunities to go long on inter - period spreads, and seizing opportunities for positive spreads are recommended [39][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 The People's Bank of China's "Three - Target System" Monetary Policy Analysis Framework - **Evolution of the Monetary Policy Framework**: The long - term goals of the People's Bank of China's monetary policy are to maintain the basic stability of the exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, keep prices stable, and promote economic growth. There is a reverse relationship between "full employment" and "price stability". In 2026, the implementation of monetary policy and liquidity injection methods are restricted due to multiple factors [6]. - **Evolution from "Quantity" to "Price" and the Establishment of a Modern Regulatory Mechanism**: The People's Bank of China has explored the path of market - oriented reform from "quantity" to "price" for more than thirty years. The current operation target is the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate. The central bank uses two types of tools for "quantity" injection to affect the price regulation of the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate and ultimately achieve long - term monetary policy goals. Since September 2024, the central bank has been exploring the construction of a modern central bank system [11][14]. 3.2 Real Estate Market Adjustment and Debt Resolution, Endogenous Contraction of Credit Financing Demand - **International Experience**: There is a cyclical cycle between monetary easing and the real estate market in major economies. Japan's economic decline after the signing of the "Plaza Accord" in the 1980s is a typical example [16]. - **Domestic Situation**: In 2015, China's monetary easing and exchange rate reform supported the real estate market and economic growth, but also led to the intensification of real estate market bubbles and the rise of local government implicit debt. Since 2022, due to the tightening of real estate regulation policies and the impact of the COVID - 19 pandemic, the real estate market has entered a deep - seated adjustment, and residents and enterprises are accelerating deleveraging. The central government has taken over local debt risks, and the goal of monetary policy has shifted to preventing risk spread, with a "moderately loose" orientation [21][24][29]. - **Forecast of Credit Financing Demand**: Endogenous credit financing demand is expected to be weak for a long time, and government bond financing will support the stock of social financing. It is estimated that the average monthly year - on - year growth rate of loan balances will be 6.1% in 2026, a further decline of 0.8 percentage points compared with 2025, and the average monthly year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing will be 8.0%, a decline of 0.6 percentage points compared with 2025 [30]. 3.3 The People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Choices - **Liquidity Injection**: Open - market net purchases of treasury bonds and reserve requirement ratio cuts may be considered as liquidity injection tools in 2026. It is expected that there may be one 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026 if the net interest margin of commercial banks stabilizes, and the third and fourth quarters may be good time windows [34]. - **Interest Rate Policy**: The main constraint on the central bank's interest rate cuts is the net interest margin of commercial banks. It is expected that there may be 1 - 2 comprehensive interest rate cuts, each with a 10BP reduction, after the net interest margin stabilizes [36]. - **Stock Market Outlook**: In 2026, high - tech sectors such as semiconductors and commercial aviation under the logic of self - controllability, as well as cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals, are expected to perform well [37]. 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures Market Tracking and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the TL contract of the treasury bond futures market recovered significantly. The market showed a characteristic of a stronger long - end and a relatively stable short - end, with the yield curve flattening. The net long positions of private funds, foreign investors, and wealth management subsidiaries increased [39]. - **Market Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities at the ultra - long end. The short - end contracts are more resilient, and the volatility will focus on the ultra - long - end TL contract. The 30 - 10 spread provides arbitrage opportunities, and the effectiveness of basis arbitrage strategies has increased. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish in the medium term, and strategies such as hedging on rallies, seizing opportunities to go long on inter - period spreads, and seizing opportunities for positive spreads are recommended [39][40][42].

Core Insights - The banking wealth management market in China reached a total scale of 33.29 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting an 11.15% increase from the beginning of the year [1][4][3] - A total of 3.34 million new wealth management products were launched in 2025, raising 76.33 trillion yuan in funds [1][3] - The number of investors holding wealth management products grew to 143 million, a 14.37% increase year-on-year, with individual investors accounting for the majority [1][13] Market Size and Growth - By the end of 2025, the total number of wealth management products in existence was 46,300, an increase of 14.89% from the start of the year [3] - The wealth management market's scale is expected to continue expanding, with projections suggesting an increase of around 3 trillion yuan in 2026, potentially reaching between 36 trillion and 37 trillion yuan by year-end [4][6] Investor Demographics - The number of individual investors reached 141 million, making up 98.64% of total investors, while institutional investors numbered 1.94 million [13][14] - The risk preference among individual investors showed a shift, with an increase in both conservative and aggressive risk profiles [14][17] Product Performance and Returns - Wealth management products generated a total return of 730.3 billion yuan for investors in 2025, a 2.87% increase from the previous year [1][19] - The average yield of wealth management products fell to 1.98%, down 0.67 percentage points from 2024, primarily due to a high proportion of fixed-income products [21][22] Asset Allocation - Fixed-income products dominated the asset allocation, accounting for 97.09% of the total scale, with only a small portion allocated to mixed, equity, and other asset types [21][22] - The allocation to public funds increased, with assets directed towards public funds rising to 5.1%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous year [10][11] Distribution Channels - Wealth management companies expanded their distribution channels, with 31 out of 32 companies offering products through banks other than their parent institutions [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is accelerating its opening - up, and new regulations for public funds are set to address industry issues. The bond market shows a slight upward trend, and the stock market has a positive outlook with new - fund issuance booming. Commodity markets, including metals, energy, and agriculture, have various price movements driven by different factors [2][17][25][36] - The macro - economic data shows a mixed picture, with GDP growth slowing, inflation rising slightly, and changes in various economic indicators such as manufacturing PMI, social financing, and trade [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year. Manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up from 49.8% in the previous month. Non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, slightly up from 50.0% [1] - Social financing in December 2025 was 22075 billion yuan, down from 35299 billion yuan in the previous month. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates changed compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - CPI in December 2025 was 0.8% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month. PPI was - 1.9% year - on - year, slightly improved from - 2.3% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The China Securities Regulatory Commission added 14 futures and options as domestic specific varieties, signaling an acceleration of capital market opening [2] - The Fed is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% in its January meeting, with a 95% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool [3] - On January 23, 31 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 37 had negative basis [3] 3.2.2 Metals - Gold prices broke through $5000 per ounce, and silver prices exceeded $106 per ounce, with a 3% increase. Analysts predict gold price increases between 10% - 35% in 2026 [4][5] - Gold - related listed companies' performance improved due to rising gold prices, and some companies are still acquiring gold - mine assets [5] - The prices of gold and silver reached their highest weekly gains since 2020, driven by factors such as a weak dollar, capital outflows from currency and bonds, and geopolitical tensions [5] - The lithium carbonate futures price exceeded 180,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply contraction and demand growth, but market divergence is increasing [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Coking coal prices rose significantly, with most coal types increasing by over 100 yuan per ton, increasing coke production costs [7] - Coking enterprises' losses intensified, with an average loss of 65 yuan per ton of coke last week, a 20 - yuan increase from the previous week [7] - The coke market is in a tight supply - demand balance, with high steel - mill iron - water production and low coke production [8] - In 2025, the national coal production by large - scale enterprises reached 48.3 billion tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - In December 2025, the national electricity market trading volume was 608 billion kWh, a 6.6% year - on - year increase. Green power trading volume increased by 32.3% [10] - Due to a cold wave in the US, natural gas futures prices exceeded $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022 [10] - The US may cancel the 25% tariff on India if India's oil imports from Russia continue to decline [11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In mid - January 2026, 29 out of 50 important production materials' prices rose, 13 declined, and 8 remained unchanged compared to early January. Pig prices increased by 3.2% [14] - Fruit prices, such as strawberries, cherries, and tangerines, decreased due to sufficient supply [14] - As of mid - January 2026, the price of soybeans increased by 0.31% month - on - month [14] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 23, the central bank conducted 125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 38.3 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount [15] - This week, 1181 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 200 billion yuan of MLF will mature. The central bank conducted 900 billion yuan of MLF operations in January, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan [15] - The central bank's mid - term liquidity net injection in January reached 1 trillion yuan to maintain market liquidity [16] 3.3.2 Important News - The CSRC issued guidelines for public - fund performance comparison benchmarks, and the Asset Management Association of China released operating rules, which will take effect on March 1 [17] - The national market operation and consumption promotion meeting emphasized promoting commodity and service consumption upgrades [17] - In 2025, the actual use of foreign capital in China was 747.69 billion yuan, a 9.5% year - on - year decrease, but some industries saw growth [18] - The central bank will promote global financial governance reform and international financial cooperation in 2026 [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market showed a slight upward trend, with interest - rate bond yields falling by about 1bp. The 10 - year treasury bond yield reached 1.83% [25] - In the exchange bond market, most Vanke bonds rose, and the real - estate bond index and high - yield urban investment bond index also increased [26] - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds having significant gains and losses [26][27] - Most money - market interest rates declined, and bond - issuance yields and multiples were reported [27][28] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9642, down 14 points from the previous trading day, but up 48 points last week. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 90 points [31] - The US dollar index fell 0.79%, and most non - US currencies rose [31] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the second - tier perpetual bonds have recovered, and the bond market may continue to fluctuate in Q1, with some trading opportunities [32] - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the investment opportunities of high - quality real - estate enterprises, commercial operators, Hong Kong - funded real - estate enterprises, and high - dividend property - management companies [32] - CICC Fixed - Income reports that the scale of nominal fixed - income + funds reached a record high in Q4 2025, while pure - bond funds faced redemption pressure [33] - CITIC Securities expects the expansion of public REITs to become normal, which will help transform the REITs market from "small and scattered" to "large and excellent" [34] - CITIC Construction Investment warns of risks such as US inflation, economic recession, European energy crisis, and global geopolitical risks [34] 3.4 Stock Market News - Foreign public - fund institutions are optimistic about the A - share market in 2026, maintaining high - position strategies and focusing on the technology sector [36][37] - Since the beginning of 2026, the new - fund issuance market has recovered, with 76 new funds established and a total fundraising of 71.939 billion yuan as of January 24 [37] 3.5 Today's Reminders - On January 26, 195 bonds will be listed, 127 bonds will be issued, 127 bonds will be paid, and 498 bonds will pay principal and interest [35]

业内专家指出，这一现象是结构性降息降准引导与商业银行稳定净息差需求共同作用的结果。展望2026 年全年，业内专家普遍认为，在适度宽松货币环境与银行息差压力持续的双重作用下，大额存单利率低 位运行将成常态，这标志着居民资产配置逻辑与银行负债管理模式正在进行角色转化。 短期产品增加 中国货币网数据显示，当前大额存单发行呈现显著短期化特征，多数银行主打1年期及以下短期品种，3 年期大额存单发行量锐减，5年期产品近乎绝迹。 例如，招商银行仅提供2年期以内产品，其中1年期（含1年）的产品有三个；中国银行在售产品期限为1 个月、3个月、6个月、1年、2年和3年，1年期以下（含1年）的存期的产品最多。农业银行的情况如出 一辙，多数产品集中在1年期之下，3年期的大额存单产品只有一种，且起点金额为50万元。建设银行则 仅有1年期及以下产品可供选择。 利率曲线亦加速下探。目前，四大国有行工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行在售的1个月、3个 月期限大额存单年利率已统一锚定在0.9%，起存点也集中在20万元。以起存点计算，1个月的利率收入 为150元，3个月的利率收入则在450元，收益已与同期限普通定期存款相差无几。 低利率的情 ...

记者丨叶麦穗 编辑丨包芳鸣 宽松的货币环境下，大额存单利率也步步走低，已经步入"0字头"时代。 业内专家指出，这一现象是结构性降息降准引导与商业银行稳定净息差需求共同作用的结果。 展望2026年全年，业内专家普遍认为，在适度宽松货币环境与银行息差压力持续的双重作用 下， 大额存单利率低位运行将成常态， 这标志着居民资产配置逻辑与银行负债管理模式正在 进行角色转化。 短期产品增加 中国货币网数据显示，当前大额存单发行呈现显著短期化特征，多数银行主打1年期及以下短 期品种， 3年期大额存单发行量锐减，5年期产品近乎绝迹。 例如，招商银行仅提供2年期以内产品，其中1年期（含1年）的产品有三个；中国银行在售产 品期限为1个月、3个月、6个月、1年、2年和3年，1年期以下（含1年）的存期的产品最多。 农业银行的情况如出一辙，多数产品集中在1年期之下，3年期的大额存单产品只有一种，且起 点金额为50万元。建设银行则仅有1年期及以下产品可供选择。 低利率的情况也传导到中小银行，比如蒙自农村商业银行3个月的大额存单，目前的利率为 0.9%，和大行没有差别。勐腊农村商业银行今年第一期个人大额存单3个月存期的利率为 0.93%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current deposit-taking competition among banks, particularly small and medium-sized banks, is intensifying as they adjust deposit rates to attract funds, despite a general decline in the enthusiasm for such actions compared to previous years [2][5]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Several small and medium-sized banks have recently raised their fixed deposit rates, albeit by limited margins compared to previous years, reflecting a balance between managing funding costs and maintaining market competitiveness [2][3]. - Specific examples include the increase of the one-year and three-year fixed deposit rates by the DeShang Village Bank in Henan and the adjustment of rates by other banks such as the Jiangsu Bank and Shenyang Bank [3][4]. - The overall trend shows that most banks adjusting rates are smaller institutions, with some offering promotional incentives like shopping cards for depositors [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The current market for deposits is generally ample, but small regional banks face significant pressure to attract deposits, leading to temporary rate increases as a marketing strategy rather than a long-term trend [5][8]. - Large state-owned banks are not following suit with rate increases but are instead adjusting the minimum deposit thresholds for their products, indicating a strategic shift towards customer relationship management [6][8]. - The dual pressures of maintaining profitability while complying with regulatory standards are influencing banks' strategies, with many seeking sustainable ways to optimize their funding structures [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that banks will continue to lower funding costs, with potential downward adjustments in deposit rates as net interest margins remain under pressure [8][9]. - The average cost of deposits may decrease by approximately 35 basis points due to the maturity of high-interest deposits, which could improve net interest margins by 10 to 15 basis points [9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the interest rates for large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) in China have entered a "zero" range, indicating a significant shift in the deposit market and prompting questions about where funds should be allocated [3][7][10] - Large-denomination CD rates have declined, with some small and medium-sized banks offering rates below 1%, marking the first time rates have entered the "zero" range [3][5] - The decline in rates is attributed to the ongoing process of interest rate liberalization in China, with banks adjusting rates based on central bank guidance and a more accommodative monetary environment [7][8] Group 2 - The end of the era of "easy money" for depositors is highlighted, as the combination of low rates and a wave of maturing fixed-term deposits means that traditional savings methods are no longer yielding significant returns [10][12] - Investors are urged to enhance their financial literacy and diversify their asset allocation in response to the low-interest environment, as relying solely on bank deposits for wealth growth is becoming increasingly inadequate [12][14] - Risk management and asset selection are emphasized as critical considerations for investors, with different strategies recommended based on individual risk tolerance [14]