Last Week’s Data Is Still Being DigestedAll of this new information is on top of last week’s US consumer price data, which increased less than expected in January, and a jobs report that came in higher than expected. Taking both reports into consideration alongside the weakness in gold, it looks as if traders believe the reports gave the Fed additional leeway for policy easing this year.What Gold Traders Want to Hear From the MinutesAs far as the minutes are concerned, gold traders will be looking for evide ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rally in U.S. Treasury bonds is driven by expectations of slowing inflation, which may lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least twice this year [1][3] - The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2 basis points to 4.03%, while the two-year yield approached its lowest level since 2022 during light trading in Asia [1] - The weak U.S. CPI data from last week and ongoing deleveraging by quantitative funds in the stock market are contributing to increased demand for bonds [3] Group 2 - The 4% level for the 10-year Treasury yield is seen as a critical support level; if breached, a significant decline in yields is expected [3] - Bond yields in the region, including Australia and New Zealand, also saw slight declines, indicating a broader trend of falling yields [3] - Traders are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. employment data and the minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting for clues on potential interest rate adjustments [3]

预计新西兰央行将于周三维持其官方隔夜拆款利率在2.25%不变，交易员的焦点则在于该国经济前景以 及通胀和利率的预期路径。新西兰央行在过去两年已大幅降息，预计未来一年经济将出现复苏。不过， 通胀形势仍不明朗，虽然已开始上升，但升幅并不惊人。预计新西兰央行新任行长Anna Breman将表 明，如果通胀恶化，央行准备加息。不过，加息可能要等到2026年底。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies and External Events - The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (TMEC) is set for a mid-term review in summer 2026, which may increase market volatility due to negotiations over rules of origin [1] - The Bank of Mexico lowered the benchmark interest rate to 7% in December 2025, with expectations of a gradual reduction to around 6.5% in 2026, while inflation is projected to return to the 3% target range by the third quarter [1] - Mexican President López Obrador criticized the US sanctions on Cuba as "unjust" and announced continued humanitarian aid, which may impact expectations regarding US-Mexico relations [1] Group 2: Stock Market Trends - The Mexican automotive industry is facing potential changes as Chinese companies like BYD and Geely are reported to be bidding for the Nissan-Mercedes-Benz plant in Mexico, which could reshape the local automotive manufacturing landscape and indirectly affect related industry stocks [2] - This event, combined with pressures from US tariff policies, has heightened geopolitical uncertainty for Mexican assets [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Economic Observer and other institutions indicate that the Mexican fund market in 2026 will be influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, expectations of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, and a trend of global capital diversification towards emerging markets, which may exert short-term pressure on the peso and capital flows [3] - In the long term, the Mexican government aims to optimize the investment environment through tax reforms, but there are risks associated with fluctuating trade policies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the key interest rate for the sixth consecutive time, reducing it from 16% to 15.5%, while continuing to suppress the slowing economy amid the ongoing costly conflict in Ukraine [1][5][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - The Central Bank of Russia has indicated that further reductions in the key interest rate may occur, depending on the sustainability of inflation slowdown and changes in inflation expectations [1][6]. - It is expected that the average key interest rate for this year will be between 13.5% and 14.5%, aimed at curbing economic activity [2][6]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Inflation - The Central Bank has stated that the monetary environment will remain tight, effectively cooling demand in other sectors to offset the demand growth related to the war [3][7]. - Economic growth is projected to slow from 4.9% in 2024 to 1% in 2025, with the International Monetary Fund estimating a mere 0.8% growth for Russia this year [3][7]. - After a tax-driven price increase in the early months of the year, inflation is expected to decline again [4][7]. Group 3: Oil Revenue and Budget Concerns - The price of Urals crude oil is approximately $45 per barrel, significantly below the international benchmark Brent crude and below the $59 per barrel needed for Russia to balance its budget by 2026 [1][6].

Economic Data and Labor Market - The January non-farm payrolls figure showed a headline number of 130,000, which is the strongest growth in over a year and more than double the Dow Jones prediction of 55,000 [2] - Job creation for the previous year was revised down to just over 15,000 per month, with the last six months resulting in a net loss of 1,000 jobs [2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, contrary to expectations of holding at 4.4%, which may shift focus back to inflation concerns [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Expectations for a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting have decreased, with the CME's Fed Watch tool indicating a 1 in 20 chance of a rate reduction, down from a 1 in 5 chance [3] - Forecasts suggest no rate cuts until mid-year, with potential cuts of 50 basis points as inflation decreases [4] - There is a belief that the data will support the Fed chair in persuading the committee to implement additional cuts later in the year [6][7] Fiscal Concerns - The Congressional Budget Office has indicated that the deficit is projected to worsen through 2036, raising concerns about fiscal policy [10] - The focus on fiscal issues is significant as central banks have reduced their bond holdings, leading to scrutiny of fiscal management [11] - The Fed's balance sheet dynamics are discussed, with implications for how it may manage its portfolio in relation to economic growth [12][13]

Job Growth Overview - The U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in January, surpassing economists' expectations of 70,000 jobs [2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, slightly better than the anticipated 4.4% [2] Revisions to Previous Reports - Revisions indicated that November's job gains were adjusted down by 15,000 from 56,000 to 41,000, and December's gains were revised down by 2,000 from 50,000 to 48,000, totaling 17,000 fewer jobs than previously reported for November and December [3] Sector Performance - Private payrolls increased by 172,000 jobs in January, significantly exceeding the LSEG estimate of 70,000 [4] - The manufacturing sector added 5,000 jobs, contrary to expectations of a loss of 5,000 jobs [6] - The healthcare sector saw a substantial increase of 82,000 jobs, with notable gains in ambulatory healthcare services (+50,000), hospitals (+18,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+13,000), surpassing its monthly average of 33,000 jobs added in 2025 [6] - Construction firms added 33,000 jobs, primarily in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+25,000), after a flat performance in 2025 [7] - The financial sector experienced a decline of 22,000 jobs, with a total loss of 49,000 jobs since its peak in May 2025, including a loss of 11,000 jobs in insurance carriers and related activities [7] Government Employment Changes - Government payrolls decreased by 42,000 jobs in January, with federal job cuts accounting for 34,000 and state job cuts for 18,000, partially offset by a gain of 10,000 jobs in local governments [5] - The federal workforce has decreased by 327,000 jobs since its peak in October 2024, representing a decline of 10.9% [5]

Core Insights - The upcoming jobs data release is expected to provide significant insights into the current state of the labor market, which will have major implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategies [1] Labor Market Implications - The labor market's performance, as indicated by the jobs data, is crucial for understanding economic conditions and guiding monetary policy decisions [1]

US stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow notching third straight record close but the other indexes slipping after slower retail sales kicked off a flood of crucial economic data ahead of the closely watched monthly jobs report. The blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose roughly 0.1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost about 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.6% as Big Tech titans Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG) lost ground. December retail sales remained "virtually unchang ...

金十数据 特朗普声称，他提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什能推动美国经济实现15%的增长。这一目标极其乐 观，凸显了沃什若获得任命将面临的巨大压力。特朗普同时指责鲍威尔的任命是重大失误。 美国总统特朗普表示，他提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）能够刺激经济增长率达到 15%。这一目标极其乐观，但同时也凸显了沃什如果获得确认担任该职务将面临的压力。 特朗普在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示，沃什是他上次遴选美联储主席时的"亚军"，并称当年选择杰 罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）担任美联储主席是一个重大错误。 特朗普在谈到鲍威尔时说："我的财政部长非常、非常想要他。我对他感觉并不好，但有时你会听从别 人的意见，这是个错误，真的是个重大错误。"特朗普的完整采访预计将于周二播出。 鲍威尔是在拜登任内获得连任的，但此后成为了特朗普的攻击目标。特朗普极力推动降低利率，并打破 了数十年的先例，对美联储的独立性提出质疑。 这场行动可能会推迟沃什的到任。来自北卡罗来纳州的即将退休的共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯（Thom Tillis）已誓言，只要特朗普政府继续其对鲍威尔的调查，他将阻止任何美联储人选的确认。 ...