调查：韩国央行将在7月暂停降息 金十数据7月8日讯，接受路透调查的33位经济学家都预计，韩国央行将在7月10日将基准利率维持在 2.50%不变，但预计下个月将恢复降息，以支持家庭负债高企的韩国经济增长。韩国政府数据显示，5 月房屋抵押贷款增加5.6万亿韩元（41亿美元），高于4月的4.8万亿韩元。这种上升可能会阻止央行连续 降息，尽管它仍处于总体宽松的道路上。 ...

【消息面】 关税方面，美国财长表示谈判的重点是18个占美国贸易赤字95%的国家，贸易谈判的策略是施加最大压 力。美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示，部分贸易谈判可能会超过截止日期。降息方面，美国财长表示将由 美联储决定是否降息。 摘要7月4日，国内贵金属期货全线飘绿，截止目前，沪金主力报价为772.22元/克，跌幅0.43%，沪银主 力报价为8883元/千克，跌幅0.38%；际贵金属期则全线飘绿，COMEX黄金报价3321.50美元/盎司，跌幅 0.44%，COMEX白银报价36.80美元/盎司，跌幅0.63%。 7月4日，国内贵金属期货全线飘绿，截止目前，沪金主力报价为772.22元/克，跌幅0.43%，沪银主力报 价为8883元/千克，跌幅0.38%；际贵金属期则全线飘绿，COMEX黄金报价3321.50美元/盎司，跌幅 0.44%，COMEX白银报价36.80美元/盎司，跌幅0.63%。 今日贵金属期货价格行情（2025年7月4日） | 品种名称 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 775.38 | 777.20 | ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $90, or 0.9%, closing at $9,864.5 per ton, after reaching a three-month high of $10,020.5 earlier in the week [1] - Other base metals also experienced declines, with LME three-month aluminum down $15 to $2,590.0, zinc down $26.5 to $2,724.0, lead down $5.5 to $2,058.5, nickel down $161 to $15,290.0, and tin down $146 to $33,702.0 [2][6][7][8][9][10] - Market sentiment is cautious as major trading partners, including the EU, Japan, and India, continue negotiations with the U.S. regarding trade agreements, with potential tariffs looming [3] Group 2 - The U.S. job report showed an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, exceeding economists' expectations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] - The market anticipates a 95.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates during the July meeting, up from 76.2% earlier [4] - Guinea's bauxite exports are projected to increase by 36% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching a record 99.8 million tons [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 07 月 04 日 寿险高增驱动行业保费回暖，财险延续稳定 保险行业 2025 年 5 月保费收入点评 总量研究/非银行金融 近日，国家金融监督管理总局公布 2025 年 1-5 月保险业经营情况，人身险公 司的寿险保费增速进一步走阔，健康险和意外险短期承压；财产险公司的车险 保费增速稳中向好，非车险经营效益有望提升；行业整体延续稳健表现。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 91 | 1.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 6080.2 | 6.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 5806.8 | 7.1 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 9.3 10.0 51.4 相对表现 6.3 4.8 36.8 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Jul/24 Oct/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 (%) 非银行金融 沪深300 相关报告 1、《低估值、高弹性的攻守兼备之选 ——保险行业 2025 年中期投资策略》 2025-06-28 2、《陆家嘴金 ...

【国富期货早间看点】路透预计马棕6月库存降0.24%至199万吨 美 豆当周出口销售净增70.14万吨符合预期 20250704 2025年07月04日 07:36 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油09(BMD) | 4078. 00 | 0. 74 | -0. 37 | | 布伦特09(ICE) | 68. 85 | -0. 43 | 0. 20 | | 美原油08(NYMEX) | 67. 18 | -0. 52 | 0. 36 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1048. 25 | 0. 05 | -0. 83 | | 美豆粕12(CBOT) | 292. 40 | 0. 58 | -0. 51 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 54. 54 | -0.96 | -0. 33 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 97.08 | 0. 34 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 1523 | -0. 03 | ...

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3342.16, with a slight increase of 0.47% from the previous session, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The recent daily candlestick pattern shows a bearish engulfing formation, suggesting a potential short-term correction after a three-day bullish trend, with market focus on the closing price today [2] - The 4-hour analysis indicates gold is consolidating between $3365 and $3311, with Bollinger Bands tightening, and the absence of U.S. market activity today may lead to a range-bound movement [3] Group 2 - The market is signaling a potential interest rate cut, as indicated by the two-year U.S. Treasury yield being perceived as too high, with commentary suggesting that the current economic conditions may warrant a reassessment of rates [2] - The focus on the mid-band level of $3350 is crucial for determining future bullish momentum, with a closing above this level suggesting further upward movement [2] - Support levels are identified at $3322-$3311, while resistance is noted at $3350-$3360, guiding short-term trading strategies [3]

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为93.3%，降息25个基点的概率为6.7%。美联储9 月维持利率不变的概率为24%，累计降息25个基点的概率为71%，累计降息50个基点的概率为5%。非农 公布前，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为76.7，降息25个基点的概率为23.3%。美联储9月维持利率不 变的概率为4.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为73.3%，累计降息50个基点的概率为21.8%。 北京时间今日周五（7月4日)亚盘时段，白银td目前交投于8890元/千克一线上方，今日开盘于8920元/千 克，截至发稿，白银td价格暂报8885元/千克，上涨0.21%，最高触及8930元/千克，最低下探8849元/千 克，目前来看，白银td行情盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【最新白银td行情解析】 白银td今日走势呈现上涨趋势，目前最新报8885元/千克，上涨0.21%，最高触及8930元/千克，最低下探 8849元/千克。上方阻力位为8956-8966元/千克，下方支撑位为8626-8636元/千克。 【要闻速递】 周四公布的数据显示，由于企业应对关税不确定性，6月份招聘人数超预期激增。美国6月份增加了1 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismisses concerns about the potential depreciation of the dollar undermining its status as the global reserve currency, emphasizing that the strength of the dollar is not directly linked to its price [1][2] Group 1: Dollar's Status and Policy - The dollar index has dropped nearly 11% in the first half of the year, marking the worst performance since 1973, amid concerns over Trump's policies, including tariffs and diplomatic stances [1] - Bessent asserts that the Trump administration is taking long-term measures to maintain the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [1] - He questions the notion that the current environment presents an opportunity for reduced reliance on the dollar, emphasizing that a reserve currency must allow for free trading [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Federal Reserve - Bessent expresses skepticism about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, indicating that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield suggests the benchmark rate is too high [2] - The current target for the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, while the two-year Treasury yield is approximately 3.76% [2] - He notes that if the Fed does not lower rates, the potential cut in September could be more significant [2] Group 3: Debt Strategy and Management - Bessent discusses the debt management strategy, indicating that the Treasury will consider the high two-year yield when making decisions about debt repayment [4] - He refrains from commenting on predictions regarding the reduction of the federal deficit by up to $11 trillion over the next decade due to Trump's policies, stating that long-term forecasts are difficult [4] - The next quarterly refinancing meeting is scheduled for July 30, where any changes in debt strategy will be announced [4]

6月非农数据好于预期提振美元反弹，7月3日，国际金价高位回落，收盘跌近1%。 当天纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年8月黄金期价收盘下跌32.7美元，收于每盎司 3336美元，跌幅为0.97%。 强劲的非农数据一扫前一日ADP就业数据的阴霾，显示美国劳动市场依然具韧性，同时也令交易员削减 了对美联储可能于7月降息的押注。数据公布后，金价自日内高点跳水超1%。 当天纽约市场成交最活跃的9月白银期货上涨25美分，报每盎司37.040美元，涨幅为0.68%。 3日CME"美联储观察"工具最新数据显示，市场认为美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为95.3%，此前一日 这一概率仅为74.7%。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 在此背景下，纽约股市三大股指3日集体走高，标普500、纳斯达克指数均创下收盘新高。资本市场的强 劲表现，削弱了黄金的吸引力。而美元指数也从近期低位反弹，同样抑制了金价的上涨动能。 不过，有分析人士也表示，尽管短期金价面临回调压力，但美国即将生效的"大而美"税收和支出法案， 可能导致美国债务继 ...

据路透调查：37位经济学家中，有31位认为澳洲联储将在7月8日把现金利率下调至3.60%，另有6位认 为利率将维持不变。经济学家的中位数预测显示，澳洲联储将在2025年底前将现金利率下调至3.10% （相比5月调查时的3.35%有所下调）。 ...