Market Overview - Stocks experienced a rally on Friday due to positive comments from the Federal Reserve, but ended the week lower, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both declining by 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropping 2.15% [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - New York Fed President John Williams indicated potential for interest rate reductions soon, with the probability of a rate cut in December rising from 30% to nearly 74% following his comments [3][4] Economic Data Impact - Key economic data to monitor includes the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, both expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month. The PCE is particularly significant for the Federal Reserve's inflation assessment [6][8] Earnings Reports - Upcoming earnings reports from companies such as Best Buy, Kohl's, Dell, and Deere are anticipated to provide insights into holiday shopping trends and the impact of tariffs on business operations. Dell's report is expected to be closely scrutinized in the context of the AI narrative [8] AI Sector Developments - The AI sector has seen a surge in bond issuance, with hyperscalers like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Oracle issuing $900 billion in bonds since September, raising concerns about sustaining growth and spending rates in the AI space [9] Technical Indicators - The S&P 500's 50-day moving average is a critical technical level to watch, with recent trading falling below this line. A rally on Friday was noted, but further progress is needed to regain stability [10]

So, I mean, it's a holiday shorten week. Uh, generally a lot less volume. Two reports coming out.They're delayed and a little bit backwardlookings. One hits inflation for producers. The other one retail sales.Either one of those market movers. Any other one of those that you really need to pay attention to this week. >> We think the retail sales numbers can be particularly important on the backs of what we heard last week out of Home Depot, Lowe's, Walmart, really to get a better sense of what's going on wi ...

Core Viewpoint - Treasury yields remained stable as there are indications that Federal Reserve policymakers are divided on the decision to cut interest rates next month [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's policymakers are experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts [1] - Current market conditions reflect uncertainty in the direction of future monetary policy [1]

Market Overview - US stock futures rose as investors anticipate a market turnaround in the Thanksgiving trading week, following a recent pullback in AI-driven stocks [1] - Major indexes have experienced notable losses in November, with the S&P 500 down 3.5% month-to-date and the Nasdaq Composite down 6.1% [2][3] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York president suggested a potential rate cut in December, contributing to Friday's market rebound [2] - Upcoming economic data releases include producer prices and retail sales for September, which are expected to provide insights into the economic landscape [4] Earnings Reports - The earnings season continues with key releases from companies such as Alibaba Holdings, Dell Technologies, and retailers like Kohl's and Best Buy during the holiday-shortened week [5]

Core Insights - A senior Federal Reserve official has reignited investor expectations for potential interest rate cuts, contributing to increased uncertainty regarding the Fed's policy decision in December [1] Group 1 - The comments from the Fed official have led to a resurgence of hopes among investors for rate cuts, which may influence market dynamics [1] - This development has created confusion in the market about the Fed's upcoming policy decisions, particularly for the December meeting [1]

智通财经APP获悉，11月份，欧元区的私营经济活动依然保持强劲态势，这让人对其今年最后几个月的 经济增长有望提速抱有期待。欧元区11月SPGI综合PMI初值为52.4，几乎与 10 月份的 52.5 相持平，且 仍高于 50 这一区分增长与收缩的临界值，分析师预期为52.5。 de la Rubia表示，11月份的调查结果显示，备受关注的服务行业成本上涨速度有所加快，但这一趋势正 因销售价格涨幅放缓而得到抑制。他说道："总体而言，对于那些特别关注服务行业通胀率的货币政策 制定者来说，面临的困扰应该是有限的。我们预计 12 月份的利率将保持不变。" 其中，服务业创下了一年半以来的最佳表现，这有助于抵消制造业出现的意外疲软态势。欧元区11月 SPGI服务业PMI初值为53.1，高于市场预期。欧元区11月SPGI制造业PMI初值意外降至49.7，不及市场 预期的50.2。 季度的增长速度应会快于第三季度。" 德国依然发挥着引领作用，尽管其经济扩张速度有所放缓，德国11月SPGI综合PMI下滑至52.1，低于预 期。与此同时，法国的经济表现则超出预期，其11月SPGI综合PMI为49.9，虽然仍低于荣枯线。而法国 在 ...

澳大利亚元对美元汇率在周五出现上涨，此前该货币对连续两日走低。 这一变化与澳大利亚标准普尔全球采购经理人指数（PMI）初值公布后的市场反应相关。数据显示，11月澳大利亚标普全球制造业PMI为51.6，高于此前的 49.7；服务业PMI从52.5升至52.7，综合PMI则从52.1上升至52.6。 市场对澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）政策立场的预期呈现谨慎倾向。RBA会议记录显示，若经济数据持续优于预期，该行可能在较长一段时间内维持利率不 变。RBA助理行长萨拉·亨特（SarahHunter）近期表示，持续高于趋势的经济增长可能加剧通胀压力，但央行不会对单月通胀数据做出即时反应，因月度数 据可能存在波动。 技术面上，AUD/USD仍处于横向整理区间 截至11月18日，ASX30天银行现金利率期货显示，2025年12月合约交易于96.41，对应RBA下次董事会会议调整利率（从3.60%至3.35%）的概率约为8%。 汇价在前一日于0.6450 附近运行，整体保持在一个矩形区间内震荡。短线价格仍位于9 日均线下方，显示动能偏弱。 美元兑人民币汇率走低，市场对美联储调整利率的预期有所升温。美元指数（DXY）结束五连阳走势 ...

智通财经APP获悉，芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比暗示，他对于在美联储12月会议上再次降息仍持 谨慎态度。古尔斯比周四在印第安纳波利斯的一次活动中表示，通胀"似乎已经停滞不前，甚至可以说 有走错方向的警告信号。这让我感到有些不安。" 古尔斯比表示："我仍然感到不安的是，在我们真正看到通胀回升是暂时的证据之前，进行过多的前置 性降息。" 越来越多的政策制定者对在通胀仍处高位的情况下过度降息表示担忧。上月会议纪要显示，在美联储上 次会议上(当时他们连续第二次降息)，许多官员倾向于不在12月再次降息。 这位芝加哥联储负责人称，他的犹豫是针对短期而言，因为他仍听到一些行业的企业表示将进一步涨 价。但他仍然认为中期内利率可以进一步下降。 在印第安纳波利斯活动后向记者发表讲话时，古尔斯比称，在9月份政策制定者最新发布预测时，他预 计今年总共会进行两次降息。他指出，自那时以来经济数据没有太大变化。 今年年初，在特朗普政府宣布大幅提高关税之前，古尔斯比曾表示，美联储官员可能在未来12-18个月 内将利率降至所谓的中性水平，即利率既不抑制也不刺激经济的水平。 在因联邦政府停摆而推迟至周四发布的9月就业报告中，即使失业率上升，招 ...

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting last month show that the path for interest rate cuts in December and early next year is far from certain. Policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were divided at their late October meeting over whether there should be an additional rate cut at their next meeting in mid-December amid concerns about a softening labor market and rising inflation.The Fed cut rates for the first time this year in September, and followed that up with a second 25 ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is not confident about another rate cut. How will crypto prices react? | Credit: Alex Wong/Getty Images. Key Takeaways Federal Reserve policymakers are divided over whether to lower interest rates in December. Fed officials must balance support for the labor market against the risk of rising inflation. Lower interest rates tend to support stronger crypto markets. With crypto prices struggling to shake off a bearish spell that has gripped the market since mid-Oct ...