Core Viewpoint - In January, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Activity - Manufacturing production continues to expand, but certain sectors like petroleum, coal, and automotive are below the critical point, indicating a slowdown in market demand and production [1] - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices rose to 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, reflecting an overall improvement in manufacturing market price levels [1] Group 2: Company Size and Sector Performance - The PMI for large enterprises remains above the critical point at 50.3%, demonstrating ongoing support for the manufacturing sector [1] - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead with a PMI of 52.0%, indicating a positive development trend in related industries [1] Group 3: Business Expectations - Business expectations remain optimistic, with the production and operation activity expectation index at 52.6%, continuing to exceed the critical point [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile". [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. Traders are recommended to conduct band - trading operations. [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Tuesday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board. By the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.10%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.03%. [1] - The Wande All - A Index opened higher on Tuesday, fell in the morning session and then rose in a volatile manner. It closed 2.12% higher than the previous trading day, with a turnover of 2.57 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day's 2.61 trillion yuan. [2] 3.2 Important Information - In the open market on Tuesday, the central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 402 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan on the day. [1] - In the money market on Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined slightly. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% for the whole day, compared with 1.36% on the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.50%, compared with 1.49% on the previous trading day. [1] - In the cash bond market on Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year government bonds fell 0.80 BP to 1.38%, the 5 - year fell 0.47 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year fell 0.28 BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 BP to 2.28%. [1] - The central bank announced that it will conduct 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months on February 4 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. [1] - The central bank's net investment in government bond trading in the open market in January was 100 billion yuan. [1] - The No. 1 Central Document, "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Solidly Promoting Comprehensive Rural Revitalization", was released. [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line (previous value: 50.1%). The new orders index in January was 49.2% (previous value: 50.8%), indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8% (previous value: 52.8%), and the business activity index of the service industry in January was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous month: 49.7%). [1] - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the protection of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". [1] - Recently, the central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote a low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of government bond trading in liquidity management, and maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. [1]

Core Viewpoint - In January, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, reflecting a decline in manufacturing activity and indicating a contraction in the sector [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Activity - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with some industries entering a traditional off-peak period and insufficient market demand contributing to the decline in PMI [1] - Production continues to expand in certain sectors, but industries such as petroleum, coal, and automotive are showing reduced market demand, leading to a decrease in production [1] Group 2: Price Indices - The price indices for major raw materials and factory output have both increased, with the purchasing price index at 56.1% and the factory price index at 50.6%, marking rises of 3 percentage points and 1.7 percentage points respectively from the previous month [1] Group 3: Enterprise Size and Performance - Large enterprises maintain a PMI above the critical point at 50.3%, indicating ongoing support for the manufacturing sector [1] - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead with a PMI of 52.0%, suggesting a positive development trend in related industries [1] Group 4: Business Expectations - Enterprises remain optimistic about future production and operational activities, with the production and business activity expectation index at 52.6%, continuing to exceed the critical point [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive sentiment towards the A-share market, with the Hedge Fund Manager A-share Confidence Index at 125.50, reflecting a 0.45% increase from January 2026 [2][5]. Core Insights - The confidence index shows an upward trend, suggesting that hedge fund managers have increased confidence in the A-share market for February 2026 compared to January 2026 [2][5]. - The average position of private equity managers in subjective long positions is reported at 79%, which is a 1% increase from the end of December 2025 [5][7]. - The report highlights that 94% of private equity funds are positioned at 50% or more, with 24.6% fully invested or using leverage, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous month [5][8]. Summary by Sections A-share Confidence Index and Private Equity Positions - The A-share Confidence Index for February 2026 is 125.50, up 0.45% from January 2026, indicating a rise in confidence among private equity managers [2][5]. - The average position of subjective long strategy private equity funds is 79%, up 1% from December 2025 [5][7]. - 94% of private equity funds are above 50% in their positions, with 48.1% in the 80% or more range, an increase of 2.8% from the previous month [5][8]. Confidence Indicators - The trend expectation confidence indicator for February 2026 is 134.94, up 1.0% from the previous month, with 5.2% of fund managers extremely optimistic [13][14]. - 61.3% of fund managers are optimistic, a rise of 2.7%, while 32% hold a neutral view, down 2% [13][14]. - The investment plan indicator for position adjustments is 111.34, down 0.6%, with 67.7% of managers planning to maintain their positions [13][14]. Market Review and Outlook - In 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 485.186 billion, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year, with private investment down 6.4% [17]. - The retail sales total for 2025 was 501.202 billion, reflecting a 3.7% increase year-on-year, with online retail sales growing by 8.6% [18]. - The report notes a stable export performance, with total exports for 2025 reaching 377.187 billion USD, showing resilience against external pressures [19].

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index stands at 50.6%, indicating expansion, while the new orders index is at 49.2%, reflecting a drop in market demand [2] - Certain industries such as agricultural processing and aerospace have production and new orders indices above 56.0%, indicating rapid release of production and demand, while sectors like petroleum and automotive show indices below the critical point, signaling a slowdown in market demand [2] Group 2 - The PMI for large enterprises is at 50.3%, remaining in the expansion zone, while the PMIs for medium and small enterprises are at 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, showing a decline in their economic performance [3] - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead with a PMI of 52.0%, maintaining a strong growth trend for two consecutive months [3] - The production expectations index is at 52.6%, indicating that businesses remain optimistic about future operations, particularly in sectors like agricultural processing and beverages, which have high confidence levels [3]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [2] - The production index stands at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index is at 49.2%, reflecting a drop in market demand [2] - Certain industries such as agricultural processing and aerospace have production and new orders indices above 56.0%, indicating strong demand, while sectors like petroleum and automotive show indices below the critical point, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [2] Group 2 - The main raw materials purchasing price index and the factory price index are at 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, both showing increases from the previous month, with the factory price index rising above the critical point for the first time in nearly 20 months [3] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, reflecting a decline in their economic performance [3] - High-tech manufacturing leads with a PMI of 52.0%, remaining above 52.0% for two consecutive months, while consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9%, indicating a decrease in their economic conditions [3] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, indicating optimism among enterprises, particularly in agricultural processing and food industries, which have indices above 56.0% [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January is 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall non-manufacturing activity [4] - The service industry business activity index is at 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points, with sectors like financial services showing high activity indices above 65.0%, while the real estate sector drops below 40.0%, indicating weak performance [4]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in January was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [1] - The production index was at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, reflecting a drop in market demand [1] - Industries such as agricultural processing and aerospace showed strong production and new orders indices above 56.0%, while sectors like petroleum and automotive experienced a slowdown with indices below the critical point [1] Group 2 - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices rose to 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, influenced by recent increases in commodity prices, marking an improvement in the overall price level in the manufacturing market [1] - The raw material inventory index decreased to 47.4%, indicating a continued reduction in the inventory of major raw materials in manufacturing [1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was at 52.0%, maintaining a strong performance, while the equipment manufacturing PMI was at 50.1%, indicating expansion [2] Group 3 - Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while small and medium-sized enterprises saw declines in their PMIs to 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively [2] - The production and business activity expectation index was at 52.6%, showing optimistic expectations among enterprises, particularly in the agricultural and food sectors [2] - Macroeconomic policies are expected to become more proactive, focusing on expanding domestic demand, with recent government initiatives aimed at stimulating consumption [3]

美股方面，三大股指小幅收跌，道琼斯工业平均指数跌0.36%，报48892.47点；标普500指数跌0.43%， 报6939.03点；纳斯达克指数跌0.94%，报23461.82点。 【财经要闻】 1、据新华社，2月1日出版的第3期《求是》杂志发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平 的重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国》。文章指出，金融强国应当基于强大的经济 基础，具有领先世界的经济实力、科技实力和综合国力，同时具备一系列关键核心金融要素。一是拥有 强大的货币，在国际贸易投资和外汇市场广泛使用，具有全球储备货币地位。二是拥有强大的中央银 行，有能力做好货币政策调控和宏观审慎管理、及时有效防范化解系统性风险。三是拥有强大的金融机 构，运营效率高，抗风险能力强，门类齐全，具有全球布局能力和国际竞争力。四是拥有强大的国际金 融中心，能够吸引全球投资者，影响国际定价体系。五是拥有强大的金融监管，金融法治健全，在国际 金融规则制定中拥有强大话语权和影响力。六是拥有强大的金融人才队伍。 【市场数据】 1月30日收盘，上证综指跌0.96%，报4117.95点；科创50指数涨0.12%，报1509.4点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is reported at 49.3%, indicating a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slowdown in production growth while still maintaining an overall expansion trend [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Performance - The manufacturing production index for January stands at 50.6%, down by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, yet remains in the expansion zone, indicating continued growth in manufacturing production despite a slowdown [1] - The primary reason for the slowdown is a noticeable decline in production activities within the consumer goods manufacturing sector [1] Group 2: New Growth Drivers - New growth drivers in the manufacturing sector continue to show expansion, with the equipment manufacturing PMI at 50.1%, remaining in the expansion zone [1] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI is reported at 52%, maintaining expansion for 12 consecutive months, with both production and new orders indices close to 54%, indicating a sustained positive trend in high-tech manufacturing [1]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In January, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index was at 50.6%, remaining above the critical point, suggesting that manufacturing production is still expanding [1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was 52.0%, maintaining a strong performance for two consecutive months, while equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, also indicating expansion [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in overall non-manufacturing activity [2] - The construction industry experienced a significant drop, with its business activity index at 48.8%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in construction activities [2] - The service sector's business activity index was 49.5%, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points, while the service sector's business activity expectation index rose to 57.1%, indicating increased confidence among service enterprises [3] Group 3: Price Indices - The purchasing price index and the factory price index rose to 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, with the factory price index surpassing the critical point for the first time in nearly 20 months, indicating an overall improvement in market prices [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The production and business activity expectation index for January was 52.6%, remaining above the critical point, suggesting optimism among enterprises regarding future activities [2] - Analysts expect that after the Spring Festival, manufacturing will continue to stabilize and expand, supported by policy implementation and market demand [2][3]