Core Viewpoint - Recent increases in express delivery fees across multiple regions in China, particularly in e-commerce dense areas like Guangdong and Zhejiang, have raised significant attention. This price adjustment is seen as a response to the long-standing issue of cutthroat competition within the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - In Guangdong, the increase in express delivery fees ranges from 0.3 to 0.7 yuan per package, with a minimum price set at 1.4 yuan per order. This region has historically had low delivery prices, with extreme cases of 0.8 yuan for nationwide delivery [1]. - A YTO Express franchisee in Guangdong noted that prior to the price increase, the shipping cost could be as low as 0.9 yuan, but it has now risen by 0.5 yuan, marking a 55% increase [2]. - On August 5, Jitu Express and Zhongtong Express both announced price hikes of 0.3 yuan and 0.5 yuan respectively, citing the need to respond to the competitive landscape [4]. Group 2: Impact on E-commerce - E-commerce merchants in Guangdong reported that while the price increase may seem minor, it results in substantial additional monthly costs, with some businesses facing increases of tens of thousands of yuan in operational expenses [1]. - Merchants are cautious about raising product prices to offset increased shipping costs due to concerns that it may negatively impact sales volume [4]. Group 3: Industry Response and Future Outlook - The price hikes are part of a broader industry response to combat "involution" in competition, as highlighted in a meeting by the State Post Bureau in July, which aimed to promote healthy and stable development in the express delivery sector [1]. - Industry insiders believe that these price adjustments could help the express delivery sector move away from price wars, leading to improved service quality and competitiveness in the long run [4]. - While Guangdong is currently the focus of these price adjustments, there is uncertainty about whether similar changes will be implemented nationwide. However, ongoing regulatory efforts to address competitive practices suggest a trend towards more rational and stable pricing in the future [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in express delivery fees in various regions of China, particularly in Guangdong and Zhejiang, is a response to the long-standing price war in the industry, aiming for healthier competition and sustainable development [1][4]. Group 1: Price Increase Details - Multiple express delivery companies in Guangdong have raised prices for e-commerce clients, with increases ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 yuan per package, and a minimum price standard of 1.4 yuan per order established [1][2]. - The price increase is expected to significantly impact e-commerce businesses, with one merchant in Guangdong estimating an additional monthly cost of at least 30,000 yuan due to the increased shipping fees [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The express delivery industry has been plagued by a price war for years, leading to a substantial decline in average delivery prices, from 28.55 yuan in 2007 to 7.49 yuan in June of this year [4]. - The National Postal Administration has emphasized the importance of combating inward competition and has indicated plans to strengthen industry regulation and improve market rules [4]. Group 3: Merchant Reactions - E-commerce merchants have varied responses to the price increase; some are hesitant to raise product prices due to market competition, while others are considering cost optimization strategies such as improving packaging and enhancing product value [2][4]. - The price increase presents both challenges and opportunities for e-commerce businesses, necessitating a balance between cost control and competitive pricing [4].

Group 1 - Airline stocks rose in early trading, with Eastern Airlines up 4.73% at HKD 3.1, Southern Airlines up 3.66% at HKD 3.96, Air China up 3.15% at HKD 5.57, and Cathay Pacific up 0.65% at HKD 10.79 [1] - The China Air Transport Association officially released the "Self-Discipline Convention for Air Passenger Transport," emphasizing industry self-regulation, market order maintenance, and strengthening anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition measures [1] - The convention advocates strict compliance with pricing laws and anti-unfair competition laws, aiming to eliminate malicious competition practices such as predatory pricing and false advertising [1] Group 2 - Cathay Securities noted that the passenger load factor during the summer travel season remains high, with ticket prices holding steady, indicating potential for significant profits during this period [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has initiated comprehensive measures to address "involution" competition, which is expected to reduce excessive low pricing in the short term and improve revenue management in the medium term [1] - Long-term policies are anticipated to ensure continued low growth in fleet planning, with a focus on the recovery of business travel demand and addressing involution [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a positive trend in airline stocks, with significant increases in share prices for major airlines in China, including Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, Air China, and Cathay Pacific [1] - The China Air Transport Association has officially released the "Self-Discipline Convention for Air Passenger Transport," emphasizing the need for industry self-regulation, market order maintenance, and enhanced anti-monopoly measures [1] - The convention advocates strict adherence to laws related to pricing and competition, aiming to eliminate malicious competitive behaviors such as predatory pricing and false advertising [1] Group 2 - Cathay Securities notes that the passenger load factor during the summer travel season remains high, with stable ticket prices, indicating potential for significant profits during this period [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China is implementing measures to address "involution" competition, which is expected to reduce excessive low pricing in the short term and improve revenue management in the medium term [1] - Long-term policies are anticipated to ensure a low growth rate in fleet planning, while short-term demand fluctuations do not alter the overall positive outlook for the industry [1]

干法锂电池隔膜骨干企业达成多项"反内卷"共识。 记者获悉，干法锂电池隔膜骨干生产企业负责人闭门座谈会在深圳成功召开，会议旨在响应、落实国家 综合整治"内卷式"竞争相关部署，推动行业健康有序发展。 星源材质、中兴新材、惠强新材、沧州明珠、恩捷股份、博盛新材、天鸿新材、康辉新材8家企业负责 人分别介绍了各自企业2024年全年及2025年上半年生产、销售情况与未来投产计划，并交流了产品成本 构成。同时，8家企业达成多项重要共识：一是价格自律；二是科学释放产能；三是暂停扩产；四是加 强产业链合作；五是希望社会监督。 锂电池隔膜是锂电池正负极之间的一层薄膜，其厚度仅为头发丝的十分之一。在锂电池进行电解反应 时，隔膜能够分隔正负极，防止短路现象的发生，同时允许电解质离子自由通过。作为锂电池四大材料 之一，隔膜的成本约占锂电池成本的10%，是研发难度最大、技术含量最深、附加值最高、投资强度最 大的锂电池材料。 近年来，随着新能源汽车、储能等领域对锂电池需求的井喷式增长，锂电隔膜产业迎来了快速扩张期。 但在发展过程中，非理性产能扩张导致市场严重供大于求。以2024年为例，干法隔膜行业历经持续价格 战，年底部分型号甚至跌破成本 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Real Estate**: The 30-city property sales in China declined by -21% YoY in the first 26 days of July, worsening from -8% YoY in June, with tier 1 and tier 2 cities experiencing sharper declines of -28% and -21% respectively, while tier 3 cities saw a narrower decline of -10% YoY [2][23] - **Steel Production**: Steel production remained weak, showing a decline of -4% YoY in the first 20 days of July, slightly improving from -5% YoY in June [2][20] - **Port Activities**: Port cargo throughput growth improved to 10% YoY in July, while container throughput growth stabilized at 4% YoY [2][12] - **Auto Sales**: Auto retail sales growth softened to 11% YoY in July from 15% YoY in June, attributed to a high base effect, while wholesale growth increased to 22% YoY from 14% YoY [2][17] Fiscal and Economic Data - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: In June, general fiscal revenue growth decreased to -0.3% YoY from +0.1% YoY in May, while general fiscal expenditure growth slowed to 0.4% YoY from 2.6% YoY [3][29] - **Land Sales**: Local land sales revenue rebounded to 20.8% YoY in June from -8.1% YoY previously, indicating a recovery from a low base [3] - **Industrial Profits**: Total industrial profit declined by -3.7% YoY in Q2, an improvement from -1% YoY in Q1, with manufacturing profit growth edging down to 4.5% YoY in Q2 [4][25] Policy and Infrastructure Developments - **Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower Project**: The project, with an expected capacity of 60 GW and a total investment of RMB 1.2 trillion (USD 170 billion), is anticipated to have limited direct impact on aggregate levels but will improve local infrastructure and potentially lower power prices [7] - **Government Policies**: The government is focusing on "anti-involution competition" and has proposed amendments to the Price Law to refine criteria for unfair pricing acts [5] Trade Relations - **US Trade Deals**: Recent trade agreements with Japan, the Philippines, and the EU have set reciprocal tariffs at 15% for Japan and 19% for the Philippines, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [8] Upcoming Events - **Politburo Meeting**: The upcoming meeting is expected to maintain a supportive macro policy tone, with discussions on stabilizing the housing market and potential preliminary information about the new five-year plan [9] Additional Insights - **Container Freight Index**: The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) continued to decline, reflecting ongoing challenges in the shipping sector [2][10] - **Government Bond Issuance**: Net issuance of Chinese government bonds softened to RMB 11 billion, while gross issuance of new special local government bonds increased to RMB 205 billion [2][14] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state of various industries, fiscal data, policy developments, and trade relations.

Group 1 - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policies are being implemented, which are expected to benefit the chemical industry. The central government has emphasized the need for industry self-discipline and the elimination of inefficient production capacity [1][10][11] - The chemical industry is identified as a "disaster area" for involution competition, with some product sales prices significantly below production costs, leading to prolonged losses. Under the backdrop of national measures to address this issue, these industries are expected to rebound [2][11] Group 2 - The report notes that the chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange experienced a weekly increase of 1.71%, with all sub-sectors showing positive growth. The sectors with the highest weekly increases include professional technical services (+4.19%) and textile manufacturing (+2.90%) [3][21][22] - Individual stocks within the chemical new materials sector that performed well include Zhongyu Technology (+16.79%), Litong Technology (+9.98%), and Huitong New Materials (+7.34%) [3][25][26] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the price trends of chemical products, indicating fluctuations in various materials. For instance, Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.2%, while TDI prices increased by 2.6% and natural rubber prices rose by 3.4% [29][32][37] - The report also mentions that the prices of polyethylene increased by 0.6%, while ABS prices fell by 0.7% [45][49] Group 4 - The report includes a company announcement regarding KQ Co., which has postponed its fundraising project to September 2026 to ensure the project's effectiveness and mitigate risks [4][53] - Minshida reported a revenue of 237 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.91%, with a net profit of 63.03 million yuan, up 42.28% year-on-year [4][54]

Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - The U.S. job market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropping to the lowest level since June, indicating a strong employment situation [2] - The U.S. government has postponed the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1, imposing tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on 14 countries, leading to a stalemate in tariff negotiations with major economies [2][3] - Domestic CPI growth turned positive in June, driven by rising energy prices, while PPI continues to face downward pressure due to weak demand [2][3] Fixed Income Research - The overall interest rates have slightly increased, with the yield curve flattening, influenced by expectations of new real estate policies and regulatory pressures on local banks [4][5] - The central bank has net withdrawn nearly 800 billion yuan in the open market, leading to a slight rise in funding prices, while maintaining a generally loose monetary environment [5][6] - The primary market saw limited supply pressure, with a total issuance of 62 bonds amounting to 621.7 billion yuan, indicating a stable funding environment [5][6] Industry Research - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is experiencing a surge in performance forecasts, with significant announcements such as Merck's $10 billion acquisition of Verona and the approval of new drugs [8][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, with the pharmaceutical sector increasing by 0.88%, indicating positive market sentiment towards the industry [10] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities related to innovative drugs and the supply chain, particularly in sectors benefiting from policy optimization and improving overseas demand [10]

Market Overview - In the past five trading days (July 4 - July 10), major indices mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.40% and the ChiNext Index rising by 1.18% [2] - The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.42 trillion yuan, down by 180.52 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - Among industries, real estate, media, and comprehensive sectors saw the highest gains, while non-ferrous metals, defense, and home appliances experienced the largest declines [2] Inflation and Price Trends - On July 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released June inflation data, showing that the CPI year-on-year growth turned positive, with a marginal reduction in the month-on-month decline [2] - The PPI continued to decline both year-on-year and month-on-month in June, with expectations of ongoing negative growth due to global demand uncertainties and seasonal factors affecting domestic pricing [3] Policy Developments - The "anti-involution" initiative has expanded its scope, with preliminary effects observed. On July 7, 33 construction-related state-owned and private enterprises jointly called for resisting "involutionary" competition [3] - The solar industry has shown positive price signals, with polysilicon prices rising by 33.3% since the beginning of July, indicating a potential supply-side clearing [3] Investment Strategy - The decline in PPI indicates continued short-term profit pressures for companies, but the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy strengthens medium to long-term profit recovery expectations [4] - Future market trends will depend on the balance between weak short-term performance and strong long-term expectations, with potential for continued upward movement if economic data does not show significant decline [4] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the banking sector are driven by multiple measures to encourage insurance capital entry and a low interest rate environment [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive supply-side clearing, presenting recovery opportunities in the power equipment and building materials sectors [4] - The TMT sector, pharmaceuticals, and defense industries may present thematic investment opportunities due to AI trends and international expansion [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock indices, futures, bonds, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It provides market trends, influencing factors, and trading strategies for each sector, emphasizing the need to pay attention to policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - financial - **Stock Indices**: The previous trading day saw most stock indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.90%. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1309.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.2 billion yuan from the previous day. It is recommended to buy long positions in IF index futures on dips, and there is no arbitrage recommendation [2][4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yields of some treasury bond futures contracts showed small fluctuations. The economic data is affected by tariff policies, and the export may face pressure in the future. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards liquidity, and the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term. It is advisable to enter the market on dips [6][7]. - **Precious Metals**: The "Big and Beautiful Act" has been passed, and the US is about to implement a loose fiscal policy. The silver price shows resilience. The Fed is expected to maintain the interest rate in July and cut it by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - buying opportunities of silver [8][9]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuates downward. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the inventory is structurally low, providing strong support for the price. However, the short - term upward pressure increases. The reference operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is 79,800 - 81,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rise is blocked due to inventory accumulation. The domestic and overseas inventory is at a low level, supporting the price, but the inventory increase and weak demand form pressure. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract is 20,500 - 20,800 yuan/ton [12]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rises. The supply of zinc ore remains high, and the TC continues to rise. The recent commodity atmosphere is good, which boosts the zinc price [13][14]. - **Lead**: The lead price shows a strong upward trend. The supply from the primary end is high, and the supply from the secondary end is in short supply. The downstream demand improves marginally. The domestic weak consumption restricts the increase of the SHFE lead price [15]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuates. The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens. It is advisable to sell short on rallies. The short - term reference operating range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuates. The supply of tin ore is in short supply, and the supply of refined tin is further tightened. The terminal demand is weak. The domestic tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rebounds slightly. The production decreases, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The reference operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 62,800 - 65,800 yuan/ton [18]. - **Alumina**: The alumina index falls. The spot price in some regions rises slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [19]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rises slightly. It is in the traditional consumption off - season, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. The spot market is expected to remain weak [20]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rises slightly. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price follows the cost end. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [21]. 3. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price fluctuates strongly. The "anti - involution and capacity - reduction" policy and the expected production reduction in Tangshan lead to the price increase. The inventory of rebar is depleted slowly, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil accumulates slightly. Attention should be paid to policy changes and demand recovery [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rises. The recent shipment volume and arrival volume decline, and the demand weakens. The inventory changes little. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25][26]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price rebounds, and the soda ash price is expected to follow the glass to rebound, but the sustainability is limited. The supply of soda ash is still loose, and the inventory pressure is large [27][28]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The manganese silicon price fluctuates, and the ferrosilicon price falls. It is recommended to wait and see before the price breaks through the downward trend line [29]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price falls. The price is still in the downward trend since November 2024. It is necessary to observe whether the price can break through the long - term downward trend line [32]. 4. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price adjusts downward. The bulls focus on the potential supply reduction, while the bears emphasize the weak demand. It is recommended to take a neutral short - term approach and a long - term bullish approach. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [35][38]. - **Crude Oil**: The WTI and Brent crude oil prices fall, while the INE crude oil price rises. The geopolitical risk re - emerges, and the oil price rebounds. It is advisable to wait and see [39]. - **Methanol**: The methanol 09 contract price rises. The inventory is low, and the supply is high. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - buying opportunities on dips [40]. - **Urea**: The urea 09 contract price falls. The supply decreases, and the demand may improve slightly. It is advisable to look for short - term long - buying opportunities on dips [41][42]. - **Styrene**: The spot price of styrene falls, and the futures price rises. The supply increases, and the demand decreases in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate downward [43]. - **PVC**: The PVC09 contract price falls. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure in the future [44]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The EG09 contract price falls. The supply and demand both decline, and the inventory decreases. The price is expected to be weak in the future, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [45][46]. - **PTA**: The PTA09 contract price falls. The supply may decrease in July, and the demand is under slight pressure. Attention should be paid to long - buying opportunities following PX on dips [47]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX09 contract price falls. The supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory may be depleted in the third quarter. Attention should be paid to long - buying opportunities following crude oil on dips [48]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE futures price rises. The inventory is gradually depleted, and the price is expected to fluctuate [49]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP futures price rises. The supply may increase, and the demand may decline seasonally. The LL - PP spread is expected to widen in the second half of the year [50]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price rises in most areas. The price is expected to fall in the north and remain stable in the south. It is recommended to buy short - term long positions on dips for near - term contracts and sell short on rallies for long - term contracts [52]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is generally stable. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to reduce short positions on dips or wait and see in the short term and wait for the opportunity to sell short on rallies in the medium term [53]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean price fluctuates. The domestic soybean meal price rises slightly. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to try long positions on dips at the low end of the cost range [54][56]. - **Oils and Fats**: The domestic oils and fats price fluctuates. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the supply increase is expected. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy hearing in July [57][59]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuates strongly. The domestic sugar sales are good, but the external market price falls, and the sugar price may continue to decline [60]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuates narrowly. The US cotton planting area is higher than expected, which is negative for the price. The domestic cotton price is supported by the expected Sino - US negotiation, but the de - stocking speed slows down. The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [61][62].