Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the further cooling of the "anti-involution" logic, aluminum industry chain varieties continued to correct. Shanghai aluminum 2509 closed down 0.53% at 20,510, the total index positions decreased by 18,206 to 591,031 lots, and the 08-09 premium widened 30 to 70; cast aluminum alloy adjusted narrowly following Shanghai aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread at -505. Alumina fluctuated greatly due to the anti-involution logic, dropping 4.05% intraday to 3,222 [8]. - Fundamentally, the supply of bauxite is gradually tightening, and the impact of the previous rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension is expected to gradually appear in August, providing bottom support for ore prices; on the 31st, with the sharp drop in the alumina futures price, the futures-spot arbitrage window was almost closed, and the spot demand for deliverable products may weaken. Coupled with the temporary cooling of anti-involution trading, alumina adjusted at a high level. If there is a high point, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off-season for the automotive industry. Demand has weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum is in short supply. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure [8]. - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side in the off-season continues to be sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector remains weak. Considering the high smelting profit of aluminum and the significant inhibitory effect of the absolute high price on terminal consumption after the price increase, the current macro logic dominates the fluctuation of aluminum prices. If there is a rebound, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai aluminum 2509 closed down 0.53% at 20,510, the total index positions decreased by 18,206 to 591,031 lots, and the 08-09 premium widened 30 to 70; cast aluminum alloy adjusted narrowly following Shanghai aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread at -505. Alumina dropped 4.05% intraday to 3,222 [8]. - Bauxite supply is gradually tightening, and the impact of the previous rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension is expected to gradually appear in August, providing bottom support for ore prices [8]. - On the 31st, with the sharp drop in the alumina futures price, the futures-spot arbitrage window was almost closed, and the spot demand for deliverable products may weaken. Coupled with the temporary cooling of anti-involution trading, alumina adjusted at a high level. If there is a high point, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. - It is currently the off-season for the automotive industry. Demand has weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum is in short supply. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure [8]. - The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the demand side in the off-season continues to be sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector remains weak. Considering the high smelting profit of aluminum and the significant inhibitory effect of the absolute high price on terminal consumption after the price increase, the current macro logic dominates the fluctuation of aluminum prices. If there is a rebound, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. 2. Industry News - Ghana has canceled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with local company Rocksure International and is seeking to cooperate with a large overseas company to develop one of the richest bauxite deposits in West Africa. Potential partners include the United Arab Emirates Global Aluminium Company (EGA) based in Dubai or a Chinese company [9]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were approximately 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative total primary aluminum imports were approximately 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were approximately 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%; from January to June, the cumulative total primary aluminum exports were approximately 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were approximately 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [10]. - On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea's national television announced a ministerial order signed by the Ministry of Mines and Geology, officially revoking the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. After verification by SMM, the revoked bauxite enterprises all had long-idle mine rights and no actual mining activities. The official said that these mine rights were taken back by the state without compensation. This action was part of a comprehensive rectification of the national mining registration system, aiming to comprehensively improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management [10]. - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid-2026, and the expected delay will result in losses of up to $110 million. Due to high electricity prices, the plant's production decreased in 2021. The smelter was originally in the process of restarting, but due to a nationwide power outage in Spain on April 28, both the electrolytic aluminum plant and the adjacent alumina plant were affected, and the restart plan was postponed. The electrolytic aluminum plant has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 228,000 tons. After evaluating the power outage losses, the joint venture suspended the resumption of production at the smelter until the Spanish government provided detailed information on the cause of the power outage and the measures taken to prevent similar incidents from happening again. On July 14, Alcoa and its joint venture partner Ignis Equity Holdings confirmed that the restart work of the San Ciprián electrolytic aluminum plant in Spain, which was suspended due to the previous nationwide power outage, had restarted. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of approximately $90 million to $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid-2026 [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On the 30th, the prices of glass and soda ash rose and then fell [2]. - The recent significant price fluctuations of glass and soda ash are the result of intense industry - capital games. The previous upward movement was mainly affected by their own supply disruptions and coal supply disruption expectations. The market has been trading on the anti - involution logic, with strong bullish sentiment in commodities, and the futures prices of glass and soda ash have risen significantly due to supply and cost increases [2]. - In the short term, glass and soda ash are still affected by market sentiment, with intense capital games. The fundamentals are still not ideal, and the near - month contracts may face delivery pressure as their spot attributes increase. However, under strong expectations, the prices are likely to be pushed up by capital. Industrial customers can focus on spot - futures positive arbitrage, and investment customers can focus on long positions in far - month contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price Information | Contract | 1 - month | 5 - month | 9 - month | 1 - month | 5 - month (Soda Ash) | 9 - month (Soda Ash) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price | 1320 | 1388 | 1191 | 1394 | 1452 | 1311 | | Change | 7 | 20 | 3.04 | - 13 | 5 | - 7 | | Change Percentage | 0.53% | 1.46% | 0.25% | - 0.92% | 0.35% | - 0.53% | | Spread Closing Price (e.g., 5 - 9 month) | - 68 | 197 | - 129 | - 58 | 141 | - 83 | | Spread Change | - 13 | 17 | - 4 | - 18 | 2 | 6 | [1] Spot Price Information | Region | Spot Price (Glass) | Spot Price (Soda Ash) | | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 1250 | 1400 | | South | 1320 | - | | Northwest | 1020 | - | | - | - | 1350 | [1] Basis Information | Region | Glass Basis | Soda Ash Basis | | --- | --- | --- | | - | 59 | 89 | | East China | 119 | 39 | | South | 129 | - | | Northwest | - 291 | - | [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 29th, glass and soda ash prices were weak. The recent significant price fluctuations of glass and soda ash are the result of intense industry and capital games. The previous upward trend was mainly affected by their own supply disturbances and the expected coal supply disturbances. The market has been trading on the anti - involution logic, with strong bullish sentiment for commodities. The futures prices of glass and soda ash have risen significantly driven by supply and cost increases. The limit - down on the 28th was also affected by market sentiment, with intense capital games and multiple varieties hitting the limit - down, including glass and soda ash. [2] - Recently, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash are still not ideal, but under strong expectations, their prices are likely to rise due to capital influence. [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - The fundamentals of glass and soda ash are still not good recently, but due to strong expectations, prices are easily driven up by capital. [2] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Buy call options on dips. [2] Group 5: Futures Data Summary Soda Ash Futures | Contract | 1 - month | 5 - month | 9 - month | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price | 1313 | 1368 | 1188 | | Change | 13 | 34 | - 35 | | Change Rate | 1.0% | 2.55% | - 2.86% | | 5 - 9 Price Difference Closing | - 55 | | | | 5 - 9 Price Difference Change | - 21 | | | | 1 - 5 Price Difference Closing | 180 | | | | 1 - 5 Price Difference Change | 69 | | | | 9 - 1 Price Difference Closing | - 125 | | | | 9 - 1 Price Difference Change | - 48 | | | | Spot Price (East China) | 1250 | | | | Main Contract Basis | 122 | | | [1] Glass Futures (Not fully presented in the data, only spot price information) | Spot Region | Spot Price | | --- | --- | | East China | 1350 | | South | 1320 | | Northwest | 11020 | [1]

Core Insights - The sharp decline in lithium carbonate futures prices raises questions about whether this is a failure of the "anti-involution" logic or if there are other underlying factors at play [1] Group 1 - Lithium carbonate futures prices have experienced a significant drop, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics [1] - The article discusses the implications of this price drop on the broader lithium market and its impact on related industries [1] - There is speculation regarding the reasons behind the price decline, including supply-demand imbalances and market sentiment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The trading sentiment in the bond market has declined. Trading desks are advised to temporarily wait and see. Although the market sentiment has recovered in the afternoon, it's hard to say that the market has bottomed out. Trading desks are recommended to be cautious, and if they participate, they need to set stop - losses and conduct quick trades. Allocation desks should seize the opportunities brought by the decline [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Performance - **Futures Prices**: On July 23, 2025, TS2509 was at 102.38 (down 0.034 from the previous day), TF2509 at 105.805 (down 0.08), T2509 at 108.53 (down 0.105), and TL2509 at 119.35 (down 0.17) [5] - **Contract Positions**: TS contract positions decreased by 2168 to 117,449 hands, TF decreased by 786 to 206,013 hands, T decreased by 1759 to 237,147 hands, and TL increased by 1741 to 156,443 hands [5] - **Base Spreads**: TS base spread (CTD) increased by 0.0014 to - 0.0039, TF decreased by 0.0348 to - 0.0126, T decreased by 0.0416 to - 0.0118, and TL decreased by 0.2093 to 0.1316 [5] - **Trading Volumes**: TS main contract trading volume increased by 11,189 to 46,570 hands, TF increased by 28,276 to 87,176 hands, T increased by 41,699 to 115,034 hands, and TL increased by 38,773 to 154,682 hands [5] - **Interest Rates**: DR001 was at 1.3144% (down 0.0465), DR007 at 1.4741% (down 0.016), and DR014 at 1.5422% (down 0.002) [5] - **Interest Rate Trading Volumes**: DR001 trading volume was 28,815.399 billion yuan (up 1427.9833 billion), DR007 was 735.7825 billion yuan (up 24.3853 billion), and DR014 was 142.8005 billion yuan (up 12.521 billion) [5] 3.2. Intraday News - The Supreme People's Court issued the "Interpretation on the Application of Laws in the Trial of Cases Concerning Disputes over Execution Objections," which refines and specifies the protection of the rights and interests of commercial housing consumers and will take effect on July 24, 2025 [3] 3.3. Market Analysis - The bond market was still suppressed by risk assets during the day. In the commodity market, prices fell in the afternoon due to rumors. The anti - involution logic has been the main line of the recent market, but as prices have continued to rise and the market has become extreme, the sentiment needs to be released. In the A - share market, the sentiment also cooled in the afternoon, with sectors such as building materials, construction, and electricity leading the decline [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Bullish [3] - Soda Ash: Sideways [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term supply and demand of glass are stable, and market sentiment dominates. Soda ash has a weak fundamental situation but positive market sentiment [3][4]. - The "anti - involution" theme is the main trading logic in the short - term, improving overall sentiment and causing glass and soda ash prices to rise. Glass has demand resilience and price support, while soda ash faces price pressure due to supply increase and demand weakening [40][41][42]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Neutral, with stable production. Daily output is 158,400 tons, industry start - up rate is 75.68%, and capacity utilization is 79.2%, all unchanged from the 10th. No new ignition or water - release production lines this week, and one pre - ignited line may produce glass next week [3]. - Demand: Bullish, with short - term resilience despite overall pressure in the off - season. Mid - term demand is a concern due to the weak real estate situation [3]. - Inventory: Bullish, with significant inventory reduction. Enterprise inventory is 64.939 million heavy cases, a 3.22% week - on - week decrease and a 0.29% year - on - year increase. Inventory days are 27.9 days, 1 day less than the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral, with volatile basis this week and a lower 09 - 01 spread [3]. - Valuation: Neutral, with prices rebounding from the low point and cost support [3]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish, with improved market sentiment due to the "anti - involution" trading logic [3]. - Investment View: Bullish, with short - term supply - demand stability and sentiment - driven [3]. - Trading Strategy: Buy call options for single - side trading; no arbitrage strategy [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish, with increased supply. This week's production is 733,200 tons, a 3.42% week - on - week increase. Light soda ash production is 318,500 tons, and heavy soda ash production is 414,700 tons, both increasing. Supply is expected to continue rising next week [4]. - Demand: Bearish, with weakening demand from the float and photovoltaic industries. Downstream purchases are mainly on - demand [4]. - Inventory: Bearish, with increased inventory. Total factory inventory is 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% week - on - week increase. Light soda ash inventory decreases by 8,300 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory increases by 50,500 tons [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral, with a weakening basis this week and a lower 09 - 01 spread [4]. - Valuation: Neutral, with prices rebounding and cost support [4]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish, with improved market sentiment due to the "anti - involution" trading logic [4]. - Investment View: Sideways, with a weak fundamental situation but positive sentiment [4]. - Trading Strategy: No single - side or arbitrage strategy [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, the price fluctuated strongly. The main contract closed at 1081 (+55), and the Shahe spot price was 1088 (+12) [6]. Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price fluctuated strongly. The main contract closed at 1216 (+42), and the Shahe spot price was 1215 (+13) [11]. Spread/Basis - Soda Ash: The 09 - 01 spread fluctuated, and the basis fluctuated [20]. - Glass: The 09 - 01 spread increased slightly, and the basis fluctuated [20]. 3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. Production is stable, and production profits have slightly recovered. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel is - 178.90 yuan/ton, a 4.21 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; using coal - made gas is 121.83 yuan/ton, a 13.05 - yuan/ton increase; using petroleum coke is - 4.76 yuan/ton, a 45.71 - yuan/ton increase [23]. - Demand: Resilient. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak, with an average order days of 9.3 days, a 2.1% week - on - week and a 7.0% year - on - year decrease. Real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor [26][27]. - Inventory: Significantly reduced, with enterprise inventory at 64.939 million heavy cases, a 3.22% week - on - week decrease and a 0.29% year - on - year increase. Inventory days are 27.9 days, 1 day less than the previous period [28]. Soda Ash - Supply: Increasing. Production has increased, and production profits are decreasing. Ammonia - soda method theoretical profit is - 83.20 yuan/ton, a 0.90 - yuan/ton week - on - week decrease; combined - soda method theoretical profit (double - ton) is - 33.50 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase [32][33]. - Demand: Weakening, with weakening demand from the float and photovoltaic industries, especially in the photovoltaic industry with expected production cuts. Downstream purchases are mainly on - demand [36]. - Inventory: Increasing. Total factory inventory is 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% week - on - week increase. Light soda ash inventory decreases by 8,300 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory increases by 50,500 tons [37].

Market Overview - The market sentiment remains optimistic, with the Wenhua Commodity Index closing up by 0.5%, surpassing the technical resistance zone around 162, suggesting traders should focus on the new resistance level around 163 [2] Commodity Performance - Polysilicon continues its strong performance, driven by supply tightening expectations, reaching a record high with a 6.42% increase [4] - Lithium carbonate also saw a rise of 2.32% due to a mining company's announcement of production halts [4] - In contrast, chemical products showed weakness, influenced by a drop in international oil prices and comments from Trump regarding oil prices [4] Specific Commodity Insights - Industrial silicon is facing potential upward resistance after reaching a critical pressure zone between 8620-8850, indicating a possible phase of declining upward momentum [6] - The demand for industrial silicon is expected to remain weak due to a cooling off in the component market and the impact of "anti-involution" policies targeting the photovoltaic industry [8] - Industrial silicon's production levels are currently high compared to the same period over the last six years, with inventories significantly above historical levels, suggesting a challenging supply-demand balance in the short term [10] Strategic Recommendations - Given the technical pressure on industrial silicon and the lack of short-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics, a cautious trading strategy focusing on potential price corrections may be advisable [12]