Group 1 - The core issue of service consumption recovery is that it is slower compared to goods consumption, with a significant gap in service consumption tendency compared to historical trends, indicating that income may not be the primary constraint on service recovery [2][8][107] - In 2024, the gap in per capita service consumption compared to historical trends is 2,093 yuan (13.9%), while the gap for goods consumption is only 458 yuan (2.9%) [2][8][107] - The increase in working hours, averaging 6 hours and 23 minutes per day in 2023, has reduced leisure time, which is crucial for service consumption [2][19][107] Group 2 - The increase in working hours has led to a concentration of consumption during holidays, but the legal holiday days are relatively few, with only 18 days mandated for 2025, significantly lower than Japan and South Korea [3][30][108] - The service sector is a non-trade sector, and insufficient effective supply will constrain the recovery of service consumption more than that of goods consumption [4][49][109] - Employment in the service sector has decreased compared to historical trends, indicating an excess supply gap, particularly in life services such as education and entertainment [4][60][109] Group 3 - The lack of entrepreneur confidence is a significant constraint on service supply, with high industry costs and increased debt pressure contributing to this issue [6][110][111] - Investment in the service sector, especially in life services, has not kept pace with profitability, indicating a cautious investment behavior among entrepreneurs [6][90][110] - The shift in investment logic from proactive to reactive, driven by profitability, has led to a slowdown in investment growth, particularly in the health and education sectors [7][90][110]

Group 1: Service Consumption Recovery - Service consumption recovery is slower compared to goods consumption, with a per capita service consumption gap of 2,093 yuan (13.9%) compared to historical trends, while goods consumption gap is only 458 yuan (2.9%) and optional goods consumption gap is 450 yuan (6.2%) [3] - The increase in working hours has led to a reduction in leisure time, with average paid labor time increasing by 2 hours daily, resulting in a weekly average of 44.7 hours in 2023, which is 13.9 hours more than in 2018 [3][21] - The concentration of consumption during holidays is increasing, with holiday sales growth of 6.8% during the 2024 May Day holiday, compared to a mere 3.7% for the same month’s retail sales [26] Group 2: Supply Constraints in Service Consumption - Insufficient effective supply in the service sector is causing slower recovery compared to goods consumption, with service employment numbers falling 3.8% below historical trends in 2023 [4][35] - The core service prices have been rising since 2022, indicating tighter supply compared to core goods prices, which are recovering better [4][35] - The supply recovery in life services, particularly in education and entertainment, is lagging, with employment in these sectors down by 6% and 2.8% respectively compared to historical trends [5][40] Group 3: Causes of Supply Constraints - Weak entrepreneur confidence is a significant factor limiting service supply, with investment in life services not keeping pace with profit margins, as seen in the entertainment sector with a sales profit margin of only 1.1% [6][53] - The cost rates in life services are high, with education and resident services at 109.4% and 104.8% respectively, reflecting a 15% and 13% increase since 2019 [7][63] - The cash flow ratio for the entertainment sector has decreased to an average of 19.8% in 2023-2024, indicating increased cash flow pressure and limiting supply expansion willingness [7][63]

Core Insights - Current per capita GDP in China is comparable to the levels of the late 1970s in the US and early 1980s in Japan, indicating significant potential for growth in the consumption market as it surpasses the $10,000 threshold [1] - The transition from goods consumption to service and cultural consumption will create numerous investment opportunities, driven by a large domestic market and ongoing consumption upgrades [1] Comparison of Economic and Consumption Markets - The US has the largest GDP and consumption market globally, characterized by a relatively young population, high income levels, and a tendency towards advanced and credit consumption [1] - Japan faces challenges from an aging population, leading to more rational consumer behavior focused on high cost-performance ratios, with a slower economic growth rate [1] - China, with a population of 1.4 billion, has a vast domestic market with continuous growth in retail sales, but lower per capita disposable income and consumption tendencies, suggesting significant room for improvement and potential in consumption upgrades and lower-tier markets [1] Historical Context of Service Consumption - In the 1970s, the US entered a phase where service consumption surpassed goods consumption, with the share of service spending increasing from 50.7% in 1970 to an estimated 68.5% in 2024 [2] - This shift led to a decline in spending on goods such as food, clothing, and automobiles, while expenditures on health care, financial insurance, and cultural entertainment surged, driving employment growth in the service sector [2] Japan's Consumption Shift - In the early 1980s, Japan's per capita GDP exceeded $10,000, marking a transition from goods to higher-level service consumption, with a focus on experiences and satisfaction [3] - By 1994, service consumption in Japan surpassed goods consumption for the first time, maintaining around 60% share thereafter, establishing the service sector as a key driver of GDP growth [3]