Group 1 - The report indicates that the overall market experienced a net outflow of funds amounting to 82.66 billion, while trading activity increased with a total transaction volume of 6.86 trillion, reflecting a rise in turnover rate to 7.85% [6][8][23] - The IPO financing for the week was recorded at 2.653 billion, with a total of 3 companies participating, while refinancing reached 2.207 billion from 4 companies [32][31] - The report highlights that the net inflow of margin financing was 8.102 billion, with margin trading accounting for 8.59% of the total A-share transaction volume [23][24] Group 2 - The report notes a decrease in the issuance scale of equity funds to 1.282 billion, down from the previous week [19][20] - The report identifies the top three sectors for fund accumulation as pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials, while the sectors with the largest reductions were food and beverage, computers, and household appliances [20][21] - The report mentions that the total amount of restricted shares released was 62.41 billion, with the electronics, computers, and construction decoration sectors having the highest release volumes [36][37] Group 3 - The report states that the liquidity in the domestic market weakened, with a net withdrawal of 727 billion from open market operations [8][9] - The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points, while the yield on 1-year bonds remained stable, leading to a narrowing of the yield spread [8][9] - The report indicates that the market anticipates a 96.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in June [6][16]

Market Performance - A-shares experienced an overall decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3% and the CSI 1000 down 0.8% for the week[2] - The Hang Seng Index rose slightly by 0.4%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.9%[2] - The S&P 500 Index decreased by 0.4% and the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.6% during the week[2] Sector Performance - The metals, petrochemical, and agriculture sectors led gains, while food and beverage, home appliances, and construction sectors lagged[2] - The pharmaceutical sector rose by 1.4%, marking its eighth consecutive week of gains[2] Trading Volume and Valuation - Average daily trading volume increased to 1.37 trillion yuan, up 13% from the previous week[4] - The turnover rate for the entire A-share market was 1.6%, with a Z-score increase from 0.4 to 0.8, indicating higher trading activity compared to the historical average[4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index was 12.7, while the CSI 1000 had a P/E ratio of 39.9[4] Bond Market and Economic Indicators - The bond market showed low volatility, with the central bank injecting 173.8 billion yuan into the market on June 9, leading to a decrease in the DR007 rate to 1.54%[4] - Social financing growth remained stable at 8.7%, with a slight decline in new loans and M2 growth compared to the previous month[4] Commodity Market - The US dollar index fell by 1.1%, while the offshore RMB appreciated slightly by 0.02% against the dollar, closing at 7.19[4] - Gold prices surged by 3.7% to $3,433 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions following Israel's attack on Iran[4] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 13.0%, reaching $73.2 per barrel, marking the largest weekly gain since November 2022[4]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research indicates that the spread of Eurozone government bonds is currently in a tight balance, with limited potential for significant further narrowing [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Conditions - The current valuation of Eurozone bonds has reached the highest level since the Lehman Brothers collapse, suggesting limited room for significant narrowing of spreads [1] - The short-term outlook is more optimistic, as cross-asset comparisons do not present significant challenges, and a positive fundamental environment supports peripheral countries [1] Investment Strategy - The company maintains a long position in Spanish bonds compared to Belgian bonds in the long term [1] - In the short term, the strategy includes tactically going long on Greek bonds while shorting German bonds [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total trading volume of the A-shares reached 6.33 trillion CNY, an increase from the previous week[8] - The turnover rate rose to 7.26%, indicating increased trading activity[8] - The market experienced a net outflow of 170.93 billion CNY, reflecting weakened liquidity[8] Group 2: Fund Flows and Financing - The net inflow of margin financing was 24.43 billion CNY, accounting for 8.92% of the total A-share trading volume[23] - The IPO financing scale was 1.3 billion CNY, while the refinancing scale was 4.27 billion CNY[30] - The issuance of equity funds decreased to 4.754 billion CNY, down from the previous week[19] Group 3: Bond Market and Interest Rates - The net withdrawal of funds from the open market was 350.1 billion CNY[10] - The yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 5 basis points, while the 1-year yield rose by 3 basis points, leading to an expansion of the yield curve[10] - The market anticipates an 88.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in June[10] Group 4: Sector Performance - The top five sectors for fund accumulation included non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, banks, and electric equipment[20] - The sectors with the largest reductions in holdings were computers, electronics, real estate, media, and household appliances[21] - Industrial capital saw a reduction of 5.277 billion CNY, with coal, environmental protection, and agriculture being the top sectors for accumulation[31]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 1、重要数据回顾 ：①美国3月核心耐用品订单零增长，4月Markit服务业PMI大幅下滑，3月新屋销量超预期增长，4月密歇根大学消费者信心指 数创2022年7月以来新低。②欧元区4月服务业意外收缩。③日本4月服务业PMI反弹，东京4月核心CPI同比增速自2023年7月以来首次高于3%。 2、美国基本面高频 ：①景气上行的有：WEI指数（经济景气上行）、消费（红皮书商业零售同比边际回升）、就业（美国续请失业金人数回 落）、物价（大宗价格回升）。②景气下行的有：地产（房贷申请数量回落）、就业（美国初请失业金人数回升）、物价（汽油零售价回 落）。 3、美国流动性高频 ：①美国和欧元区金融条件放松。②离岸美元流动性：日元对美元3个月掉期基差回升，欧元兑美元3个月掉期基差 回落。 报告摘要 一、过去一周重要数据回顾 1、美国3月核心耐用品订单零增长，4月Markit服务业PMI下滑，3月新屋销量超预期增长，4月密歇根大学消费者信心指数创2022年7月以来新 低 。 2、欧 ...

法国-德国10年期国债利差扩2个基点至79个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses recent economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in inflation, employment, and financial conditions [2][4][10]. Group 1: Important Data Review - In February, the US PPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.3% and previous 3.5%, with a month-on-month change of 0% against an expected increase of 0.3% [9]. - The US CPI for February grew by 2.8% year-on-year, below the expected 2.9% and previous 3%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [9]. - The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index for March rose to -2.9, significantly above the expected -8.4 and previous -12.7 [10]. - Germany's January exports fell by 2.5% month-on-month, contrary to the expected growth of 0.5% [10]. - Japan's 2024 Q4 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth was revised down to 2.2%, below the expected 2.8% [10]. Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index increased to 2.65% for the week of March 8, up from 2.24% the previous week [13]. - The German WAI index rose to 0.51% for the week of March 9, compared to 0.24% the previous week [13]. Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate decreased to 5.7% for the week of March 8, down from 6.6% the previous week [14]. - The US mortgage application numbers increased, with the MBA market composite index rising to 269.3, an 11.2% week-on-week increase [15]. Group 4: Employment - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 220,000 for the week of March 8, down from 222,000 the previous week [16]. - Continuing claims also decreased to 1.87 million, compared to 1.90 million the previous week [16]. Group 5: Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index was 302.67 on March 14, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week [17]. - The US gasoline retail price was $2.95 per gallon on March 10, down 0.1% from the previous week [17]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - The Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US was 0.20 on March 14, down from 0.27 the previous week [18]. - The Eurozone's Bloomberg financial conditions index increased to 1.30, up from 1.17 the previous week [18]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed deterioration, with the yen and euro swap basis against the dollar decreasing [19]. Group 7: Bond Yield Spread - The 10-year bond yield spread between the US and Eurozone narrowed, with the US-EU spread at 135.6 basis points, down from 144.7 basis points the previous week [21].

【笔记20241224— 3万亿的特别国 债 （-路透称"明年特别国债规模3万亿"-股市上涨+资金面均衡偏松=中上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 近期30Y-10Y国债利差持续走阔，可能的原因：一是随着30Y绝对水平不断降低，保险配置动力明显减弱；二是央妈反复喊话后，省联社可能加强了对农 商行投资超长债的指导；三是924之后权益类资金对冲需求大幅下降。 今日小作文乱飞，内容真正超预期的并不多，但市场反应较大，可能是在"预期你的预期"： 1、明天是MLF续作日，如果降准了，可能会有止盈，那么我抢先一步止盈？ 2、下周就跨年了，基金年末冲量后年初可能有赎回，叠加年初银行可能止盈兑现浮盈，那么我抢先一步止盈？ -------------------------- 央行今日公开市场开展641亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日3554亿元逆回购到期。净回笼2913亿元。 上午资金面宽松，午后略有收敛，尾盘再度转松。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 12. 24) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...