Core Viewpoint - The dairy giant Yili (600887.SH) has ended its 30-year growth streak due to unprecedented industry pressures, with significant declines in revenue and profit expected in 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - Yili's 2024 revenue is projected to be 115.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.24%, while net profit is expected to drop to 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.9% [2]. - In Q4, Yili made a substantial impairment provision of 5.2 billion yuan, resulting in a quarterly loss of 2.42 billion yuan, further pressuring annual profits [3]. Impairment and Asset Valuation - A major component of the impairment was a goodwill write-down of 3.04 billion yuan related to the acquisition of Ausnutria (1717.HK), which has seen a significant decline in performance [4]. - Other impairment provisions included 1.23 billion yuan for inventory and 370 million yuan for fixed assets due to market demand changes and technological obsolescence [5]. Industry Challenges - The dairy industry has faced negative retail growth since 2022, with a 2.7% decline in overall sales in 2024, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [9][10]. - Yili's liquid milk segment saw a revenue drop of 12.3% in 2024, with a decrease in both sales volume and price [11]. Market Strategy - To protect distributor profits, Yili began channel inventory clearance in Q2 2024, leading to a significant revenue drop of 16.5% in Q2, which narrowed to 6.7% in Q3 [12][13]. - By Q3, Yili completed channel clean-up, stabilizing sales during peak seasons [14]. Future Outlook - Yili anticipates a potential turnaround in 2025, with Q1 revenue showing a slight increase of 1.35% and net profit rising by 24.19% [17]. - The company remains cautious about demand recovery, projecting only a 2.8% increase in full-year revenue for 2025 [18]. Market Share and Growth Engines - Yili's liquid milk revenue has stagnated, with a slight increase to 85.54 billion yuan in 2023, but its market share in this segment is declining [21][22]. - Conversely, the infant formula segment is experiencing growth, with a 7.53% increase in revenue to 29.675 billion yuan in 2024, driven by rising birth rates [26][29]. Diversification Efforts - Yili is exploring diversification beyond dairy, including launching new tea and mineral water products, while also focusing on functional dairy products [40][43]. - The company is also investing in health-related sectors and has established a venture capital fund targeting high-tech innovations in the health industry [48].

医药生物 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 30 日 688085.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 17.47 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (13.8) (3.5) (6.7) (7.1) 相对上证综指 (14.6) (1.6) (7.8) (12.7) 发行股数 (百万) 277.89 流通股 (百万) 248.45 总市值 (人民币 百万) 4,854.66 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 35.04 主要股东 QM5 LIMITED 14.74 (19%) (10%) (2%) 7% 15% 24% Apr-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 三友医疗 上证综指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 29 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《三友医疗》20241105 《三友医疗》20240829 《三友医疗》20240816 中银国际证券股份有限公司 ...

"两翼"业务快速发展，国际化业务持续向好。2025 年一季度，公司防水业务实现收入利润双增长，实 现营业收入10.54 亿元，同比增长10.54%，净利润为0.43 亿元，同比增长19.89%；公司涂料业务深度融 合发展，实现营业收入9.08 亿元，同比增长111.44%，净利润为0.44 亿元，同比增长48.17%；公司国际 化业务持续向好，营业收入同比增长73%，净利润同比增长143.08%。 事件： 盈利预测及投资评级：公司是全球最大石板轻钢龙骨产业集团，防水和涂料业务"两翼"快速发展，国际 化业务持续增长。我们预计公司2025-2027 年分别实现营业收入288.20 亿元、323.73 亿元、362.49 亿 元，归母净利润44.62 亿元、49.99 亿元、56.16 亿元，当前股价对应PE 分别为11.2、10.0、8.9 倍。参考 2025 年可比公司平均估值23.1 倍PE，维持"增持"评级。 2025 年4 月25 日，北新建材发布2025 年一季报：2025 年一季度公司实现营业收入62.46 亿元，同比增 长5.09%；实现归属上市公司股东的净利润8.42 亿元，同比增长2.46%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q1 2025 performance, showing a slight year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, but significant quarter-on-quarter declines, aligning with market expectations [1]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 2.102 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 65 million yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit was 45 million yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year - Quarter-on-quarter comparisons showed a decline of 57.0% in revenue, 86.2% in net profit, and 88.0% in non-recurring net profit [1]. Development Trends - The box transformer business is expected to maintain steady growth, with a projected 700 million yuan order from Saudi Arabia likely to be fulfilled in Q2 2025 - The company anticipates accelerated growth in the box transformer business due to stable domestic market growth and higher gross margins from overseas orders - Charging business saw over 40% growth in charging volume in Q1 2025, with operational scale expanding and a continued trend of reduced losses expected - The sales and construction of charging piles were relatively flat in Q1 due to seasonal factors, but growth is anticipated in Q2 as the industry enters a construction peak [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin decreased by 1 percentage point year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of lower-margin box transformer business - Operating expense ratio increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with management expenses rising by 0.8 percentage points due to seasonal fluctuations in expense allocation [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 1.214 billion yuan for 2025 and 1.559 billion yuan for 2026 - Using the SOTP valuation method, the estimated value for the new energy charging business is 17.581 billion yuan, while the traditional power equipment business is valued at 14.248 billion yuan (15x 2025E P/E) - The target price is set at 30.15 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 23.1% [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 9.22 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 8.02 CNY [3][9]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 45.478 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, and a net profit of 3.52 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.41% [1]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in profits in 2025, driven by improved domestic demand and continued growth in international markets and emerging businesses [9][10]. - The company has a strong focus on cash dividends and share buyback policies, with a planned dividend of 2.603 billion CNY for 2024, representing a dividend payout ratio of 73.95% [9]. Revenue and Profitability - The core business segments, including cranes and concrete machinery, generated revenues of 14.786 billion CNY and 8.013 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 23.35% and 6.8% [2]. - Emerging businesses, such as aerial work, earthmoving, and agricultural machinery, showed significant growth, with revenues of 6.833 billion CNY, 6.671 billion CNY, and 4.65 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year increases of 19.74%, 0.34%, and 122.29% [2]. - The company's gross margin and net margin improved to 28.17% and 8.81%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 0.63 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points [3]. Internationalization and Market Position - Domestic and overseas revenues were 22.098 billion CNY and 23.38 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -24.24% and +30.58%, marking a historical milestone where overseas revenue accounted for over 50% of total revenue [2]. - The company has established a strong market position in the domestic market for its main products and is rapidly expanding its overseas business, with export revenue growing by over 35% [2]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 53.03 billion CNY, 62.52 billion CNY, and 73.79 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 16.6%, 17.9%, and 18% [9][11]. - Net profits are expected to reach 4.9 billion CNY, 6.12 billion CNY, and 7.6 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 39.2%, 24.8%, and 24.2% [9][11].