Group 1 - The global central banks are increasingly planning to increase their gold exposure, with over one-third of 75 central banks managing approximately $5 trillion in assets indicating such intentions, marking the highest proportion in at least five years [1] - The shift towards gold is driven by the need for asset safety and yield considerations, reflecting a reassessment of the US dollar's dominance in the international financial system and a rising awareness of geopolitical risks [1][3] - Approximately 70% of central banks express reluctance to increase their US dollar asset allocation due to concerns over the unpredictability of the US political environment, a figure that has doubled from the previous year [3][4] Group 2 - There is a growing preference for the Chinese yuan and the euro among central banks, with 16% planning to increase their euro exposure in the next two years, a significant rise from the previous year [3] - The yuan's internationalization is steadily increasing, gaining a more significant role in global trade and foreign exchange reserves, despite its current limited share [3] - The changes in central bank asset allocation behavior are seen as a forward-looking signal of market trends, indicating a response to the evolving geopolitical landscape and international financial order [5]

Core Viewpoint - The future of the international monetary system is likely to evolve towards a structure where a few sovereign currencies coexist, compete, and balance each other [1][4] Group 1: Evolution of the International Monetary System - The share of the euro in global foreign exchange reserves has increased to around 20%, second only to the US dollar since its inception [1] - The international status of the renminbi has steadily risen, becoming the second-largest trade financing currency globally after the 2008 financial crisis [1][2] - Historical shifts in dominant currencies, such as the Dutch guilder and the British pound, indicate that the status of international currencies is not fixed and can change with international dynamics and national competitiveness [2] Group 2: Impact of US Policies - The US has engaged in protectionist measures and created barriers that disrupt global supply chains, undermining long-term global trade stability [2] - The recent depreciation of the US dollar, with a decline of approximately 9% from January to June, reflects the instability of the dollar-centric global monetary system [1][2] Group 3: Opportunities for Other Currencies - The current situation presents a significant opportunity for the euro to strengthen its international position, as noted by the European Central Bank President [3] - The establishment of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) with foreign institutions marks a step towards enhancing the use of the renminbi in international transactions [3] Group 4: Future Monetary Landscape - The international monetary system is expected to transition towards a multipolar structure, with the US dollar, euro, and renminbi playing significant roles [4] - Sovereign currency issuers must enhance fiscal discipline and financial regulation to mitigate risks and ensure stability in the global monetary system [4][5] - Coordination of monetary policies among major economies is crucial to avoid unintended policy conflicts and to manage the spillover effects of monetary policies [5]

Core Insights - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum highlighted the focus of Chinese financial authorities on cross-border payment systems, emphasizing the need for innovation and efficiency in this area [1][2] Group 1: Digital Currency and Cross-Border Payments - The People's Bank of China announced the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center in Shanghai to promote the internationalization of the digital currency and financial market development [1] - The rise of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins is reshaping traditional payment systems, significantly reducing the cross-border payment chain [1][2] - The RMB has become the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally, reflecting its increasing international status [2] Group 2: Challenges and Innovations in Cross-Border Payment Systems - Traditional cross-border payment systems face challenges such as low efficiency and high costs, prompting a global call for improvement and diversification [2] - The multilateral central bank digital currency bridge project has shown promising results, with payments processed in 6 to 9 seconds, compared to 2 to 5 days for traditional methods, and nearly halving transaction costs [3] - The interoperability of payment systems is improving, with countries extending operational hours and adopting international messaging standards to enhance cross-border payment efficiency [4] Group 3: Regional Cooperation and Future Trends - The renewal of the bilateral currency swap agreement between the People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Turkey supports the use of local currencies for cross-border settlements [2] - The trend towards a more efficient, secure, inclusive, and diversified global cross-border payment system is expected to continue [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum emphasizes the importance of financial openness and cooperation for high-quality development in the context of global economic changes [1] Group 1: Financial Openness Initiatives - The People's Bank of China announced eight financial openness measures, including the establishment of an interbank market trading report library and a digital RMB international operation center [3] - The international monetary system is evolving towards a multi-currency landscape, with increasing use of local currencies for cross-border settlements, indicating a shift away from a single sovereign currency dominance [4][5] Group 2: Silver Economy and Financial Opportunities - The aging population in China presents significant opportunities in the silver economy, with projections indicating that the population aged 60 and above will exceed 400 million by 2035, leading to a potential market size of 30 trillion yuan [10] - The development of a multi-pillar pension system is underway, with a focus on expanding pension-related financial products and services [10] Group 3: Wealth Management Growth - China's expanding middle-income group is driving demand for wealth management services, with the asset management market growing at an annual rate of approximately 8% over the past five years, making it the second-largest globally [11][12] Group 4: Cross-Border Financing and Foreign Investment - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange is promoting cross-border financing facilitation and enhancing foreign investment participation in China's financial markets [16][20] - Policies are being implemented to support foreign trade enterprises and facilitate cross-border investment, including the promotion of a unified currency management policy for domestic companies [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The international monetary system is evolving towards a multipolar structure, which will enhance the responsibilities of sovereign currency nations to strengthen domestic fiscal discipline and financial regulation [1] Group 1 - The international monetary system's shift towards multipolarity will help sovereign currency nations to reinforce policy constraints [1] - The future may see a coexistence of a few sovereign currencies that compete and balance each other [1] - Sovereign currency nations must take on corresponding responsibilities, including enhancing domestic fiscal discipline and financial regulation [1] Group 2 - There is a need for structural economic reforms in sovereign currency nations to adapt to the evolving international monetary landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international monetary system is evolving towards a multipolar structure, which enhances the resilience of the system and contributes to global economic and financial stability [1] Summary by Relevant Categories International Monetary System Evolution - The evolution of the international monetary system over the past 20 years has two significant characteristics: the introduction of the euro in 1999, which currently accounts for approximately 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, second only to the US dollar [1] - Following the 2008 global financial crisis, the international status of the renminbi has steadily increased, making it the second-largest trade financing currency globally [1] - The renminbi ranks as the third-largest payment currency worldwide and holds the third-highest weight in the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) currency basket [1] Future Outlook - The international monetary system is likely to continue evolving towards a structure where a few sovereign currencies coexist, compete, and balance each other [1] - Regardless of whether a single sovereign currency or a few sovereign currencies serve as the dominant international currency, the countries issuing these currencies must assume corresponding responsibilities, strengthen domestic fiscal discipline, enhance financial regulation, and promote structural economic reforms [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the opportunities and challenges for the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB), emphasizing the need for a more market-oriented floating exchange rate system and the potential for RMB to become a more significant international currency amidst the declining credibility of the US dollar [1][4]. Group 1: Opportunities for RMB Internationalization - Since the pilot program for cross-border trade settlement in RMB began in 2009, the currency has transitioned from "non-internationalization" to "internationalization," becoming the third-largest currency in the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) [1]. - As of December 2024, RMB accounts for 6.0% of cross-border trade financing, closely trailing the euro at 6.5%, but significantly lower than the US dollar's 81.9% [2]. - The RMB is the fourth-largest international payment currency, with a share of 3.8%, again lower than the dollar and euro, which hold 50.2% and 22.0%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Challenges for RMB Internationalization - The RMB's share in foreign exchange reserves was 2.2% at the end of 2024, down 0.7 percentage points from its historical high in early 2022, indicating a significant gap compared to the dollar and euro [2]. - The RMB is not yet fully convertible, and its exchange rate remains influenced by concerns over domestic financial stability and export competitiveness, complicating the process of capital account opening [9]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, particularly with the US, pose additional risks to the RMB's internationalization efforts, potentially leading to a reconfiguration of global supply chains [8][9]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations for RMB Internationalization - To enhance the RMB's international status, it is crucial to implement proactive economic policies and deepen reforms that stimulate market vitality and improve the investment environment for foreign investors [10]. - Strengthening financial market infrastructure and aligning domestic regulations with international standards will facilitate greater foreign participation in RMB-denominated assets [11][12]. - Accelerating the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center will support the RMB's internationalization by enhancing its competitiveness and service capabilities in global markets [14].

5月17日，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳召开。波兰前总理马雷克·贝尔卡在论坛现场接受北京商报记者采访时表示，未来国际货币体系或朝着多极化 方向发展。他还直言，"如果我在一家央行负责外汇储备，我不会如此热衷于黄金投资，因为我知道黄金现在看起来像一颗新星，但这颗星星可能会陨落"。 美国慢性贸易赤字来自其国内经济不平衡 在论坛开幕式致辞中，马雷克·贝尔卡抛出了问题：美国总统特朗普到底想要什么？他认为，特朗普希望使美国成为一个制造业大国。 "从欧洲的视角来看，他这么想很奇怪。因为我们一直都觉得美国是全球的经济引擎，而且它在前沿科技方面领先，它在这方面远超于欧洲的进展。"马雷克 ·贝尔卡表示，如果仔细审视的话，会发现在美国的社会和经济结构中都出现了很大的不平衡，这就是为什么特朗普总统对美国国民表示，"现在美国处于危 机当中"。 "但是，谁来从事这些制造业工作呢？尤其是考虑到现在美国的部分移民政策，特朗普政府成功限制了移民，无论是制造业人口的数量还是质量，都不足以 支持他的想法。因此特朗普提出增加关税。但我们都知道，至少从经济学家角度来看，关税并不是贸易不平衡背后的主要推手。"马雷克·贝尔卡说道。 现在美国慢性的 ...