来源：第一财经 原油反弹超2%。 *三大股指回落，道指跌超200点； *中长期美债收益率回落，2年期美债报3.46%； *特斯拉跌超3%，消息称凯茜·伍德旗下的ARK Invest基金继续减持。 摩根士丹利旗下亿创理财交易与投资主管拉金（Chris Larkin）表示："本周经济数据发布较为清淡，市 场走势的核心驱动力或将来自板块内部动能。若想让美股以强势收官，实现又一个两位数涨幅的年份， 科技板块大概率需要扛起大旗。" Haverford Trust哈弗福德信托公司董事兼投资策略主管史密斯（Hank Smith）表示："这并非科技股主导 地位终结的开端，最终会成为一次逢低买入的良机。一个重要原因在于，除特斯拉外，头部科技公司的 估值相较于其增长率和自身构筑的商业护城河而言，并不算高。" 受科技板块走弱拖累，美股在周一全线下跌。截至收盘，道指跌249.04点，跌幅0.51%，报48461.93 点，纳指跌0.50%，报23474.35点，标普500指数跌0.35%，报6905.74点。 【热门股表现】 个股方面，特斯拉跌3.2%。据报道，凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）旗下的ARK Invest基金继续减 ...

UNforex 12月29日讯 在年末假期效应与"圣诞老人行情"共同作用下，全球金融市场继续在高位区间内 运行。随着交易日数量减少、流动性阶段性回落，市场在震荡中逐步消化政策预期与宏观基本面变化。 上周，美股在连续走强后涨势有所放缓，但整体结构并未出现明显松动，主要股指仍稳守历史高位附 近，风险偏好保持相对积极。 从具体表现来看，截至上周五收盘，标普500指数与道琼斯工业平均指数仍接近此前平安夜创下的纪录 区间。尽管假期因素限制了成交活跃度，但周度层面，美股整体表现依然稳健：标普500指数全周累计 上涨约2.3%，道指与纳斯达克综合指数分别录得约1.6%和2.5%的升幅，显示资金在年末阶段仍倾向于 维持既有配置结构。 进入缩短的假日交易周后，市场关注重点开始从年度表现切换至对中长期政策路径的评估。本周三即将 公布的ADP就业报告以及美联储12月FOMC会议纪要，被普遍视为观察政策取向的重要窗口。相关信息 将为市场判断2026年货币政策节奏提供更多线索。 与此同时，美联储主席继任问题逐渐进入讨论区间。多家媒体指出，美国总统特朗普可能在明年1月初 公布下一任美联储主席人选。当前被市场提及的潜在候选人包括白宫经济顾 ...

2025.12. 29 本文字数：2011，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 本月初，市场因担忧人工智能相关支出拖累科技股走弱而出现震荡，不过美股随后迅速企稳回升。圣 诞节假期前一日，标普500指数收盘再创历史新高，距离首次站上7000点关口仅差约 1%。 投资者 期望美股市场在下周以强势表现收官2025年，为又一个强劲年份画上句号。这一基准指数正朝着连 续第八个月上涨的目标迈进，若能实现，将创下2017-2018年以来最长的月度连涨纪录。 美联储政策悬念持续 随着假期来临，上周发布的数据有限，市场对美联储的政策前景预测仍然并不明朗。 美国政府周二发布的延迟数据显示，在强劲消费支出的推动下，美国经济增速创下两年来新高。美国 经济分析局发布的初步预估数据显示，三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长4.3%，远高于市 场普遍预期值3.3%。 圣诞行情能否如期上演 受第三季度经济增长报告好于预期的提振，美国三大股指上周延续升势。标普500指数周五盘中一度 触及6945.77点的历史新高。 板块方面，道琼斯市场统计显示，原材料板块涨幅居首，攀升2.4%；科技板块与金融板块紧随其 后，分别上涨1.8%和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic landscape is characterized as the "Roaring 2020s," with resilience and AI productivity expected to drive the S&P 500 to 7,700 points by the end of 2026 and potentially challenge 10,000 points by the end of the decade. The investment focus is shifting from AI producers to the 493 companies that benefit from cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1][3][4]. Economic Outlook - The economy has shown resilience over the past four years, with expectations of a 2% inflation rate as productivity increases lower unit labor costs. This stability may prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates, keeping bond yields above 4% [6][11][14]. - The S&P 500 is projected to reach 7,700 points by the end of 2026, based on an estimated earnings per share (EPS) of $350 multiplied by a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22. By the end of the decade, the index could reach 10,000 points, with gold also expected to hit $10,000 per ounce [3][16]. AI Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape in the AI sector is shifting from a monopoly of tech giants to a more competitive environment, referred to as an "arms race." This change is narrowing the competitive advantages of major tech companies, leading to a focus on AI users who can leverage technology to enhance productivity and profit margins [3][9][10]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 has experienced a strong performance, with an average increase of 16.5% this year, surpassing the historical average of 12%. Analysts remain optimistic about corporate earnings, with expectations for continued growth in the coming years [8][27][28]. - The earnings outlook for the S&P 500 is positive, with analysts projecting EPS of approximately $312 for the current year and $357 for the next, indicating a bullish sentiment for 2026 and 2027 [28][29]. Sector Analysis - Key sectors expected to benefit from AI advancements include healthcare, finance, and industrials, as these industries are poised to leverage AI technology to improve productivity significantly [34]. - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are anticipated to perform well, with gold potentially reaching $10,000 per ounce by the end of the decade. Silver's industrial applications may provide it with a stronger fundamental outlook compared to gold [16][36].

Group 1 - Ed Yardeni predicts that the S&P 500 index could reach 7,700 points by the end of 2026, with an EPS of $350 expected for 2027, and potentially challenge 10,000 points by the end of the decade [1][15][24] - Gold is projected to reach $10,000 per ounce by the end of the decade, with silver also expected to perform well due to industrial demand [1][15][32] - The focus of investment is shifting from AI technology producers to users, as companies leveraging AI to enhance productivity and profit margins are seen as the real beneficiaries [1][4][30] Group 2 - The current economic environment is characterized as the "Roaring 2020s," with expectations of continued resilience in the economy and a potential inflation rate of 2% due to productivity gains [1][9][13] - Analysts are increasingly optimistic about corporate earnings, with expectations for significant growth in the coming years, particularly in 2026 and 2027 [25][27] - The bond market is anticipated to stabilize above 4%, reflecting the ongoing fiscal stimulus and its implications for economic growth [14][13]

Group 1 - The core concept of the "Santa Claus Rally" refers to a seasonal upward trend in the stock market during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January, attributed to decreased trading activity, year-end portfolio adjustments, and positive seasonal investor sentiment [1][3] - Historical data shows that since 1950, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 1.3% increase during this period, with a positive return rate of 79%, making it a significant event on Wall Street [1][3] - Major technology stocks are expected to lead the market during this year's "Santa Claus Rally," as they have been the core driving force behind the overall upward trend in U.S. stocks this year [1][5] Group 2 - From 2016 to 2024, the U.S. stock market experienced only one decline during the "Santa Claus Rally" period, and despite last year's seasonal rally not materializing, many institutions remain optimistic about this year's performance [2] - The "Santa Claus Rally" is driven by four main factors: reduced trading volume leading to lower volatility, year-end portfolio adjustments by fund managers, increased consumer spending during the holiday season, and the conclusion of tax-loss harvesting by investors [3][4] Group 3 - Institutions advise caution regarding the "Santa Claus Rally," emphasizing that it is not a guaranteed annual occurrence and that relying solely on seasonal patterns for short-term trading may not yield clear long-term benefits [4] - The East Wu Securities overseas research team suggests that while a short-term rally may occur in the U.S. stock market, investors should maintain a cautious stance regarding Hong Kong stocks due to potential volatility from upcoming events [5][6] Group 4 - The domestic market is also seeing discussions around the "cross-year rally" and "spring excitement," with institutions viewing these as investment opportunities as the year-end approaches [7] - Analysts from Galaxy Securities and other firms highlight the potential for a small rally around the New Year, driven by expected policy initiatives and increased institutional investment in major indices [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing fluctuations near historical highs, with the S&P 500 index showing a weekly increase of 1.4%, marking its fourth weekly gain in five weeks [2][3]. Market Performance - On the first trading day after Christmas, the Dow Jones fell by 20.19 points (0.04%) to 48,710.97, the Nasdaq dropped by 0.09% to 23,593.10, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.03% to 6,929.94, although it reached a new intraday high [2]. - The S&P 500 index has risen over 17% since the beginning of 2025, primarily driven by large-cap tech stocks, but recent gains are spreading to financial and materials sectors [3]. Economic Outlook - Analysts predict a 15.5% profit growth for S&P 500 companies in 2026, up from a forecast of 13.2% for 2025, indicating a positive outlook for corporate earnings [3]. - The market is closely watching the potential for a "Santa Claus rally," defined as an increase in the S&P 500 during the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the following year [5]. Sector Performance - The recent market rally is attributed not only to the tech sector but also to financial and industrial sectors, which are benefiting from tax reforms and interest rate cuts implemented in the fourth quarter [5]. - In individual stock performance, Nvidia rose by 1.0% following a technology licensing agreement, while other tech stocks showed mixed results, with notable declines in Tesla (down 2.1%) and Meta (down 0.6%) [6]. Commodity Market - The precious metals market saw significant gains, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.08% to $4,529.10 per ounce, and silver futures increasing by 7.68% to $76.48 per ounce [7]. - Copper prices also reached historical highs, with domestic copper prices nearing $6 per pound, driven by tariff policies and tight inventories [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the U.S. stock market during the holiday season, highlighting the potential for a "Santa Claus rally" and the impact of economic data and corporate earnings on market trends in 2026 [5][6]. Market Performance - On the first trading day after Christmas, major U.S. stock indices hovered near historical highs, with the Dow Jones down 20.19 points (0.04%) at 48,710.97, the Nasdaq down 0.09% at 23,593.10, and the S&P 500 down 0.03% at 6,929.94 [3]. - The S&P 500 index has seen a cumulative increase of over 17% since the beginning of 2025, with large tech stocks leading the gains, although recent trends show a broader market rally including financial and materials sectors [6]. Economic Outlook - Analysts predict a 15.5% profit growth for S&P 500 companies in 2026, up from a forecasted 13.2% growth in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for corporate earnings [6]. - The market is expected to benefit from tax reforms signed in July and interest rate cuts implemented in the fourth quarter, which are seen as supportive factors for the market in 2026 [6]. Sector Performance - The recent market rally is attributed not only to technology stocks but also to financial and industrial sectors, suggesting a more diversified economic recovery [6]. - Individual stock performances varied, with Nvidia up 1.0% due to a technology licensing agreement, while other tech giants like Apple and Google saw slight declines [9]. Commodity Market - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 2.76% to $56.74 per barrel, while precious metals saw significant gains, with gold futures rising 1.08% to $4,529.10 per ounce and silver futures up 7.68% to $76.48 per ounce [10].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices all rose over 1% this week, with the S&P 500 index up 1.4%, marking its fourth weekly gain in five weeks [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq also saw gains exceeding 1% this week [1] Economic Indicators - Mid to long-term U.S. Treasury yields showed narrow fluctuations, with the 2-year Treasury yield falling below 3.50% [1][3] - Strong economic data and expectations of potential policy easing by the new Federal Reserve chair next year have contributed to the stabilization of the stock market [2] Sector Performance - The recent market rally is broadening beyond technology stocks, with financial and industrial sectors driving the S&P 500 index to new highs [3] - Analysts predict a 15.5% profit growth for S&P 500 companies in 2026, up from 13.2% in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for corporate earnings [2] Company News - Nvidia shares rose by 1% following the announcement of a technology licensing agreement with startup Groq [4] - Target's stock increased by 3.3% amid pressure from hedge fund TCIM Capital Management, which holds a significant stake in the company [5] - Chinese tech stocks also performed well, with Alibaba up 1.5%, Pinduoduo up 1.4%, and Baidu up 1.2% [5] Commodity Market - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude oil down 2.76% to $56.74 per barrel [5] - Precious metals saw significant gains, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.08% to $4529.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 7.68% [5]

Market - On December 27, US stocks closed lower, but the S&P 500 index reached a new intraday high, with all three major indices recording weekly gains: Dow Jones up 1.2%, Nasdaq up 1.22%, and S&P 500 up 1.4%. Market movements may be driven by technical factors and position adjustments, with investors anticipating a "Santa Claus rally" that historically averages a 1.3% gain during this period since 1950 [2] - The top 20 stocks by trading volume on December 27 included Tesla, which fell 2.10% with a trading volume of $27.924 billion, and Nvidia, which rose 1.02% with a volume of $26.566 billion. Apple saw a slight decline of 0.15% with a volume of $5.873 billion, while Google A shares also fell as the company allowed users to change their Gmail addresses [2] Company - Popular Chinese stocks mostly rose on December 27, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 0.72%. Notable gainers included Xpeng Motors up 6.23%, Li Auto up 3.93%, and NIO up 4.07%. Alibaba and Pinduoduo also saw varying degrees of increase, while Vipshop led the declines with a drop of 0.64% [3] - Oracle's stock is on track for its worst quarter since 2001, having fallen 30% so far. Investors are questioning its ability to provide more server capacity for OpenAI, which agreed to invest over $300 billion in collaboration last September. Oracle's quarterly revenue and free cash flow fell short of expectations, and the company plans to spend $50 billion to enhance its cloud computing capabilities [13] - Target is reportedly facing pressure from an activist investor after experiencing a significant drop in sales and a nearly one-third decline in stock price this year. The hedge fund TCIM has taken a significant stake in Target, which has seen 12 consecutive quarters of negative or near-zero sales growth [15] Commodity - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs due to geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar. On December 27, spot gold rose 1.6% to surpass $4,540 per ounce, while silver increased by 7.6% to break the $77 per ounce mark. The market is expected to see further interest in precious metals as traders anticipate two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [4][24] - Oil prices fell as investors assessed new developments in Ukraine peace negotiations, with WTI dropping 2.8% to nearly $57 per barrel, marking its largest decline since mid-November. The potential agreement could allow more Russian oil into the global market, although the outlook remains uncertain due to conflicting statements from Russian officials [5]