Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data by the National Bureau of Statistics, marking the first data release based on the new 2025 benchmark, indicating a slight impact on the indices due to the benchmark rotation [1][3]. CPI Summary - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) showing a moderate increase [2][6]. - The CPI's year-on-year growth was affected by the Spring Festival's timing and international oil price fluctuations, with food prices decreasing by 0.7%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.11 percentage points [6][7]. - The core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a continued recovery in consumer demand [7]. PPI Summary - The PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.4% [2][8]. - The increase in PPI is attributed to the ongoing construction of a unified national market, which has led to price increases in certain industries, such as cement and lithium-ion battery manufacturing [8][9]. - Input factors have caused price divergence in the non-ferrous metals and petroleum-related industries, with international metal prices driving domestic price increases [9]. Benchmark Rotation Changes - The benchmark rotation introduced new categories and adjusted weights to better reflect current consumption patterns, with the CPI's service weight increasing and consumer goods weight decreasing [3][5]. - New categories include housing security equipment, elderly products, dishwashers, and internet medical services, expanding the coverage of new economic sectors [3][4]. - The number of survey points for CPI has increased to approximately 120,000, covering around 620,000 specifications, enhancing the data collection process [3][4].

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics released the first data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) based on the 2025 benchmark, indicating a recovery in consumer demand in January [1] CPI Summary - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.8% year-on-year [1] PPI Summary - The PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month but decreased by 1.4% year-on-year [1] Benchmark Impact - The National Bureau of Statistics noted that the benchmark rotation affects the price indices due to changes in survey categories, sites, representative specifications, and weights, with an average impact of approximately 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points on the CPI and PPI year-on-year indices, respectively [1]

2月11日，国家统计局公布今年1月份最新CPI、PPI数据。 2026年1月份居民消费价格同比上涨0.2% 2026年1月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.2%。其中，城市上涨0.2%，农村上涨0.1%；食 品价格下降0.7%，非食品价格上涨0.4%；消费品价格上涨0.3%，服务价格上涨0.1%。 1月份，全国居民消费价格环比上涨0.2%。其中，城市上涨0.2%，农村上涨0.2%；食品价格持 平，非食品价格上涨0.2%；消费品价格上涨0.2%，服务价格上涨0.2%。 2026年1月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5个百分点；环比 上涨0.4%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。工业生产者购进价格同比下降1.4%，降幅比上月收 窄0.7个百分点；环比上涨0.5%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 什么是基期轮换？ 按照官方的定义，CPI的"基期轮换"是指对居民消费价格指数（CPI）的统计基期、商品和服 务篮子以及权重等进行定期调整的工作。通俗一点说，基期轮换，就是把统计的 "对比起点" 更新一下，以前拿2020年的"一篮子"价格当对比基准，现在换成 2025 年的"一篮子"价格当基 准，这 ...

（文章来源：国家统计局） 国家统计局2月11日发布了以2025年为基期的全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）和工业生产者出厂价格指 数（PPI）数据，这是本次基期轮换后的首次数据发布。对此，国家统计局城市司负责人表示，基期轮 换后，调查分类目录、调查网点和代表规格品、权数等变动均会对价格指数产生一定影响，但这些因素 的影响方向和幅度各不相同，综合起来才是对总指数的影响。经测算，本次基期轮换对CPI和PPI各月同 比指数的影响平均约为0.06和0.08个百分点，总体较小。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the inflation landscape for 2025 is characterized by a bottoming out and stabilization, with the GDP deflator index showing a decline of -1.2% year-on-year in Q2, the lowest since 2010, and a slight recovery to -1.0% in Q3 [1][11] - The article highlights that the manufacturing investment, as a representative of productive capital expenditure, has seen a decline, leading to a gradual easing of supply-demand pressure [1][11] - Key price increase signals have emerged in sectors such as storage, non-ferrous metals, and phosphorous chemicals, indicating a potential recovery in prices [1][12] Group 2 - For 2026, the article discusses the technical detail of the base period rotation for the PPI, which will be based on 2025, with updates to the survey directory and weight adjustments reflecting the latest industrial revenue proportions [2][14] - The macro logic for 2026 includes a likely recovery from the low investment gap in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, stabilization of the real estate market, and a narrowing consumption gap, all of which are expected to positively influence prices [2][17] - The financial logic indicates that leading indicators such as M1 suggest a continuation of price recovery for domestic industrial products, with global liquidity conditions remaining supportive [2][20] Group 3 - The article identifies four key industrial factors influencing prices for 2026, including the pig cycle, the easing of capacity pressure in key industries, the cumulative effects of anti-involution policies, and the profit cycle indicating limited expansion in manufacturing investment [3][23] - The manufacturing sector's contribution to PPI decline is significant, with eight key industries accounting for 88% of the cumulative impact, particularly in automotive, electrical machinery, and computer communication electronics [3][26] - The article emphasizes the importance of upstream commodities, such as coal, steel, copper, and oil, in analyzing PPI, noting that price volatility in these commodities can significantly affect PPI contributions [4][30] Group 4 - The article outlines five key signals regarding CPI for 2026, including favorable base effects, the impact of core goods and services, and the expected recovery in medical service prices due to aging population needs [5][34] - The potential influence of gold prices on CPI is discussed, with projections indicating a reduced contribution compared to the previous year, reflecting a high base effect [5][37] - Housing prices are highlighted as a critical variable, with expectations for stabilization in the second half of 2026, influenced by policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [6][39] Group 5 - The comprehensive assessment of price data for the year indicates a moderate recovery in both PPI and CPI, with CPI expected to rise to a peak in Q1 before stabilizing in subsequent quarters [7][43] - The baseline scenario predicts average CPI and PPI values of 0.8% and -0.6% respectively, with variations in conservative and optimistic scenarios also presented [7][44] - Structural price increase signals for 2026 include the impact of anti-involution policies, new energy industries, and the aging population's influence on service prices [8][47][48]

Economic Overview - The inflation environment for 2025 is characterized by a bottoming out and stabilization, with the GDP deflator index dropping to -1.2% in Q2, the lowest since 2010, and improving to -1.0% in Q3[4][17]. - The manufacturing investment growth rate fell from 9.0% in February to 1.9% in November, indicating a slowdown in capacity expansion[4][5]. Price Trends - The PPI has shown signs of recovery, with a five-month consecutive increase from July to December, marking the first positive growth since June 2022[4][5]. - Key price increases in sectors such as storage chips (up 478%), copper (up 25.2%), and lithium hexafluorophosphate (up 248.2%) were noted from July to December 2025[4][20]. Structural Changes - The PPI base year will shift in 2026, with significant updates to the survey directory and weight adjustments, particularly increasing the weight of non-ferrous metal processing and computer communication electronics[4][28]. - The new PPI structure will better reflect emerging industries and technological advancements, potentially leading to a more pronounced impact on price readings[4][28]. Investment and Consumption - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to stimulate investment, particularly in infrastructure, which will support raw material prices in the construction sector[5][12]. - Consumer spending is anticipated to increase due to policies aimed at enhancing consumption rates, with a focus on public service equalization and short-term incentives for service consumption[5][12]. Global Economic Factors - Global liquidity conditions remain supportive, with M2 growth in major economies rising from 2.4% to 8.0% year-on-year, indicating a favorable environment for commodity prices[6][12]. - The export environment is projected to remain stable, with expected growth rates of 3-4% for exports, contributing to a balanced pricing scenario for major export products[5][12]. Risks and Uncertainties - Potential risks include unexpected downward pressure on the domestic economy, uncertainties in real estate policies, and fluctuations in global commodity prices[12][14]. - The impact of the pig cycle and other agricultural price trends may also influence inflation dynamics in 2026, with expectations of a price bottoming out in the first half of the year[10][12].

Macroeconomic Overview - In 2025, the CPI remained flat year-on-year at 0%, the lowest level since 2009, while the PPI decreased by 2.6%[3] - December 2025 CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, matching expectations, while core CPI also rose by 1.2%[1] - The PPI for December 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, slightly better than the expected 2.0%[1] Core Insights - CPI has risen for four consecutive months, reaching the highest level since March 2023, with core CPI also maintaining above 1% for four months[2] - The PPI has increased month-on-month for three consecutive months, driven by the non-involution sectors, while oil and petrochemical prices continue to decline[2] - For 2026, CPI is projected to rise to around 0.7%, supported by policies like trade-in programs and a narrowing decline in rental prices[2][5] Price Trends - In 2025, food prices fell by 1.5% year-on-year, marking a 25-year low, with energy prices down by 3.9%[3] - Core CPI saw a modest increase of 0.7% in 2025, with significant contributions from household appliances and communication tools, which rose by 1.8% and 0.6% respectively[3] - The international gold price surge led to a more than 40% increase in jewelry prices, significantly impacting the CPI[3] PPI Analysis - The PPI for 2025 averaged -2.6%, the second-lowest since 2016, with both production and living materials prices declining[3] - The decline in PPI was exacerbated by weak demand and excess capacity in sectors like real estate and infrastructure[3] - In 2026, PPI is expected to stabilize around -0.4%, influenced by rising prices in coal, steel, and lithium due to increased demand[5]